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redbaron998
20-11-2007, 19:50
I have been watching this site (http://www.advfn.com/quote_Games-Workshop_LSE_GAW.html)....and am worried, thier stock just keeps dropping and am a little worried.....it keeps going and going down?

Is this a accurate site? I admit I am not a Stock expert but this doesnt spell good fortune for our hobby

Crube
20-11-2007, 19:52
DOes seem to be accurate, but (as all financial advisors say) stocks can go up as well as down. 216 is still above the price they floated at (115p), whilst being a mile away for it's height (almost 800p IIRC)

Gaebriel
20-11-2007, 19:58
Hmm, if I'm not mistaken, the drop in May 07 came with their profit warning, but the stock slowly rose again despite the 2006 report. The height in August would be what? Apocalypse? But why they've been falling so deep since then - did I miss something? Aren't they nearing a new lowest post-LotR-bubble low right now?

edit:
Yes, this is the lowest point since 2001 (http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GAW.L&t=my).

RobC
20-11-2007, 20:18
I don't think GW are at fault this time – in case it's escaped everyone's attention, the stock market is having a tough time of it recently, and there are reports in many of this week's papers that suggest we're in for a repeat of Black Monday (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29). It might be so much panic, but it explains why GW's shares are taking a dip at the moment.

Vic
20-11-2007, 20:41
Here's the thing: Really high fuel costs, real high raw materials cost. Plus, GW has a very high price point, and a very high entry point. With less cash floating around, people will be spending less on "luxury" items, which GW has worked very hard to present themselves as. To make up for the lost volume, I think GW will raise prices again. I dont see many stalwarts (fanbois) being able to afford these toys, and as a parent, I will not be able to afford to buy my children armies. I am buying for my current armies, but I am doing it at a "maintenance" level, a level that will not make GW much business. If GW had a sale or lowered their prices to a more realistic level, then I would probably change my buying habits, as my children really do like the models.

Now, historically speaking, when times are tough, people buy more "comfort" items, but when you have to choose between food/fuel/toys, food/fuel will win out, especially when the toys are priced above perceived value (maybe not above our perceived value, but definitely above the perceived value from most parents and people looking at this segment of the wargaming hobby cold). GW's painted themselves into a corner. Not saying that they are doomed, but I remember companies like Ral Partha and TSR and Avalon Hill and ........

oh well.....

Norminator
20-11-2007, 21:42
I think the others are right, it's reflecting the economy as a whole. A lot of people are being hit by what appears to be problems in the American housing market (I'm no economist and don't really understand it), and as GW products are luxuries they are the first to be hit when people have less money.

Reinholt
20-11-2007, 22:16
I think the others are right, it's reflecting the economy as a whole. A lot of people are being hit by what appears to be problems in the American housing market (I'm no economist and don't really understand it), and as GW products are luxuries they are the first to be hit when people have less money.

I disagree.

Stock markets doing poorly in general do not necessarily demand that any individual stock does poorly, unless we are discussing a drop of historically significant scale (black monday, the tech crash, etc). This is not currently the case.

As an example:

- My Exxon (XOM) holdings are up this year.

- My Goldman Sachs (GS) holdings are just about even.

- My Coca-Cola (KO) holdings are also up.

Using the stock market's decline as an excuse for GW's performance as an equity holding is exceedingly disingenuous or simply misguided. GW is doing poorly because they have high costs and low sales. Their return on capital is very poor, by which I mean negative.

Their stock is dropping because their business is doing poorly with no sign it will be turned around, either through more effective sales or cost cuts (or, ideally, both).

Classic fundamentals at work.

Andyalloverdaplace
20-11-2007, 23:11
GW, as viewed by the market, makes luxury goods in the UK, and sells these goods using company stores and independent retail globally, with a large portion in the US. For the mass majority of investors, that sums up all they need to know about GW.

Since the dollar is dropping to the pound, and as the US is under risk of, at very least, a slow holiday season, there is a considerable draw to get rid of GW stocks and buy something a little more likely to remain profitable. Every time the dollar drops a cent to the pound, their products become less profitable and less attractive. Let me guess, the high point was back in about 2002 or so?

GW could literally be making the skeleton regiments out of real bones for all that the market cares, it's about the money coming in and going out, and US dollar exchange issue is playing a big part in GW's share price dropping.

If it drops far enough the shareholders will make things progessively more miserable for the powers that be at GW, which will probably make them do something really dumb that will make things look good in the short term. At that point it will become a problem for us.

whiteshields1830
20-11-2007, 23:22
im surprised it skyrocketed in mid august...the subprime crash affect most firms (even ones that werent even connected with the bonds market).

But GW seemed to have a huge increase during the hardest time this year in the stock market...

Andyalloverdaplace
20-11-2007, 23:29
Probably, in the middle of the subprime mess, somebody had the bright idea that GW didn't own any houses, that we know, almost for certain. Lets put our money there for a while...

Gaebriel
20-11-2007, 23:34
...
Let me guess, the high point was back in about 2002 or so?
...
The high point was in 2005, and they were soaring between 2002 and 2005 - a result not linked to external ecomonic reasons, but to the LotR-license with the accompanying films.

Etienne de Beaugard
20-11-2007, 23:38
GW's stock has been dropping for a while. That says to me investors are concerned that GW has problems and has not given sufficient evidence that those problems are being fixed.

From a hobbyist perspective, I would not be worried about GW going kaput any time soon. There are still people buying product. Production may slow. GW may have to keep cutting costs. If GW does not start expanding it's market share (especially in the US) in the new 2 or 3 years, then I would start to worry.

thearchiver
20-11-2007, 23:49
I disagree.

Stock markets doing poorly in general do not necessarily demand that any individual stock does poorly, unless we are discussing a drop of historically significant scale (black monday, the tech crash, etc). This is not currently the case.

As an example:

- My Exxon (XOM) holdings are up this year.

- My Goldman Sachs (GS) holdings are just about even.

- My Coca-Cola (KO) holdings are also up.



No buts lots of individual stocks doing poorly, does show on the stock market, its not a case of GW share price going down because the share market is. The share price is going down because of other enconomical factors, which are making lots of share prices go down.

Compairing a Oil company, investment bank, and a mega corp share prices are not the best things to compare GW to, to really see how GW is doing in relation to the economic share, is to compare it with other companes that turn over 110mil a year and export 1/3 of the sales into the rest of Europe and 1/3 to the rest of the world.

Gaebriel
21-11-2007, 01:34
All good and well, but a drop like this, and after a recent high that, as I understand, wasn't tied to typical market behaviour? Question is how much GW is subject to 'normal' market fluctuations, especially when considering that it's a somewhat niche company with a largely price-insensitive customership (quote GW).

I just wonder if there's something we don't know (any major tradings, takeovers, big investors leaving the boat), or if things are just really spiralling down all over. I mean, we're talking just over 200 against 350 three month ago - even after the big fall in 2005, they stopped at somewhat just under 400...

Though the stock price has of course no direct influence on their short term ability to function, to pay bills and produce and expand - but it represents a general view on the company's reliability.

I just thought they had sailed around the biggest icebergs with their intensive cost-cutting and trimming-programme. Apocalypse also hinted at that they hit the right customer's nerve.

Etienne de Beaugard
21-11-2007, 02:47
I just thought they had sailed around the biggest icebergs with their intensive cost-cutting and trimming-programme. Apocalypse also hinted at that they hit the right customer's nerve.

Investors seem not to agree, and I don't blame them. Apocalypse looks to the non-gamer like any of the other great 'launches' that GW has run over the years. Big Hype, a new ruleset, a few new models. To an outsider, this would look like any of the summer campaigns or the big 'system' re-editions.

Cost cutting is good, in general, but GW has not proved it can reclaim lost market share. They also have not put forth a clear new mission statement. As an investor, all I see is a floundering niche company that borrows cash to pay stockholders, cuts back it expenses (at least that was a good idea), and then puts up one of its standard short-term tricks to try and boost sales. Unless investors see a clear statement of how GW will make sustainable gains in their niche market, they're likely to keep bailing.

Templar Ben
21-11-2007, 02:58
Not saying that they are doomed, but I remember companies like Ral Partha and TSR and Avalon Hill and ........

oh well.....

Two of the three you listed are owned by Hasbro. Just saying. :p


GW, as viewed by the market, makes luxury goods in the UK, and sells these goods using company stores and independent retail globally, with a large portion in the US. For the mass majority of investors, that sums up all they need to know about GW.

Since the dollar is dropping to the pound, and as the US is under risk of, at very least, a slow holiday season, there is a considerable draw to get rid of GW stocks and buy something a little more likely to remain profitable. Every time the dollar drops a cent to the pound, their products become less profitable and less attractive. Let me guess, the high point was back in about 2002 or so?

GW could literally be making the skeleton regiments out of real bones for all that the market cares, it's about the money coming in and going out, and US dollar exchange issue is playing a big part in GW's share price dropping.

If it drops far enough the shareholders will make things progessively more miserable for the powers that be at GW, which will probably make them do something really dumb that will make things look good in the short term. At that point it will become a problem for us.

The US products are made in the US. Given the dropping US Dollar that should help GW as they can export those US produced items to countries with strong currencies.



I just wonder if there's something we don't know (any major tradings, takeovers, big investors leaving the boat), or if things are just really spiralling down all over. I mean, we're talking just over 200 against 350 three month ago - even after the big fall in 2005, they stopped at somewhat just under 400...

Well 2 big sales could be two individuals within the company wanting to drop some options and get the cash. In the States, insiders are restricted to trading stocks during certain times (not in quiet periods before and after news breaks) and I think it is the same in the UK.

Vic
21-11-2007, 03:08
@Templar:
All three of those companies went out of business. WOTC bought TSR in '97, and Hasbro bought WOTC in '99. Hasbro bought the name of two of them for product lines. Just correcting ;)

Templar Ben
21-11-2007, 03:15
TSR was sold to WoTC. Hasbro bought WoTC. Hasbro did pick up the name of Avalon Hill when they went out of business for a few million. They also bought the rights to everything they made and all of their stock. Hasbro just let them finish their fall and pick them up at fire sale instead of an LBO.

Vic
21-11-2007, 03:22
They ran with the TSR label until about 2002, then let the name expire in 2003.

The point still stand though. These companies were the "giants" of their day. They now no longer exists. Same can be said of GW.

Templar Ben
21-11-2007, 03:33
Now to see if Hasbro is interested. ;)

redbaron998
21-11-2007, 06:28
Now to see if Hasbro is interested. ;)

Hasbro owning the Warhammer IP...well it really cant be run much worse than how GW is doing it....

scarletsquig
21-11-2007, 07:29
Hasbro owning the Warhammer IP...well it really cant be run much worse than how GW is doing it....

Oh yes it can... while Hasbro may run it "better" than GW, in terms of profit, you can guarantee there will be market-friendly compromises.

At best, we'd see some price reductions, and they wouldn't screw around with things too much... maybe a range of prepaints on the basic troops alongside the regular stuff.

At worst, we'd see the game change from this (http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e84/Zmithy/taugw.gif) to this (http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e84/Zmithy/tauha.gif).

Cirrus the Blue
21-11-2007, 08:05
I disagree.

Stock markets doing poorly in general do not necessarily demand that any individual stock does poorly, unless we are discussing a drop of historically significant scale (black monday, the tech crash, etc). This is not currently the case.

As an example:

- My Exxon (XOM) holdings are up this year.

- My Goldman Sachs (GS) holdings are just about even.

- My Coca-Cola (KO) holdings are also up.

Using the stock market's decline as an excuse for GW's performance as an equity holding is exceedingly disingenuous or simply misguided. GW is doing poorly because they have high costs and low sales. Their return on capital is very poor, by which I mean negative.

Their stock is dropping because their business is doing poorly with no sign it will be turned around, either through more effective sales or cost cuts (or, ideally, both).

Classic fundamentals at work.

This is actually what's happening (there's plenty of proof behind this, too. Shops closing, managers I know having quit over the continuous drop in stock, the infamous price increases, etc.) and has been so for a few years now. Not only until recent has it come into the public eye and it's largely due to the gravy train that was Lord of the Rings having run completely dry and GW having very little to fall back upon as they were completely blindsided by companies such as Rackham along with the people behind War Machine, etc. practically cornering the market with higher quality games and figures at lower and much more desireable prices.

GW isn't dead yet, but they've got to pull up their socks if they want to see their way out of this hole they've dug for themselves! How should they go about doing this, you ask? LISTENING TO THEIR CUSTOMER BASE FOR A CHANGE!!! :skull: It's us who're paying the bills and if we're unhappy with the merchandise, then there's plenty of other places we can turn. The sooner they realize this and listen to what the public wants, the better off they'll ultimately be as a business in the long run and will be able to survive the drop in sales. Go figure, the other companies are doing just fine in the marketplace because they've done just that whereas GW is only *just* starting to. Let's hope this doesn't turn out to be a case of 'too little too late'.

- Cirrus

Cirrus the Blue
21-11-2007, 08:07
Oh yes it can... while Hasbro may run it "better" than GW, in terms of profit, you can guarantee there will be market-friendly compromises.

At best, we'd see some price reductions, and they wouldn't screw around with things too much... maybe a range of prepaints on the basic troops alongside the regular stuff.

At worst, we'd see the game change from this (http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e84/Zmithy/taugw.gif) to this (http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e84/Zmithy/tauha.gif).

hahaha That second pic is hilarious, yet strangely the scariest thing I've seen all week. :p

- Cirrus

Tetchy
21-11-2007, 10:25
GW is shafted. It's been running on empty for the last couple of years, and now the chickens are finally coming home to roost. It had a good boost with Apoc, but its all too little too late. GW doesn't have a future.

catbarf
21-11-2007, 11:57
Why not? It has an enormous fan base and three systems. It's less likely to go than Privateer Press or Mongoose.

crandall87
21-11-2007, 12:01
GW is shafted. It's been running on empty for the last couple of years, and now the chickens are finally coming home to roost. It had a good boost with Apoc, but its all too little too late. GW doesn't have a future.

That's quite a bold statement. If GW ever got in a position that bad they could easily cut their costs by shutting a few stores and laying off some staff. They must make a lot of money each day in sales but their running costs are so high.

Vic
21-11-2007, 12:05
Why not? It has an enormous fan base and three systems. It's less likely to go than Privateer Press or Mongoose.


Can I point out that larger companies in bigger industries with a customer base that dwarfs gw's and more than three product lines have gone belly-up in the past? Size and past performance does not a future make.

The pestilent 1
21-11-2007, 12:17
That's quite a bold statement. If GW ever got in a position that bad they could easily cut their costs by shutting a few stores and laying off some staff. They must make a lot of money each day in sales but their running costs are so high.

And that they are still well above their lowest point.

Gaebriel
21-11-2007, 12:21
They just picked up four pence - someone must have heard us ;)

grickherder
21-11-2007, 17:21
I wouldn't want to own an ailing consumer discretionary company in this period of credit volatility. Imagine next Christmas when people can no longer use home equity loans to pay off of credit card debt because the banks can resell the debt and have to carry the risk themselves. How's that shopping season going to turn out?

Smart money is shorting GW :D

swordwind
21-11-2007, 20:14
Oh yes it can... while Hasbro may run it "better" than GW, in terms of profit, you can guarantee there will be market-friendly compromises.

At best, we'd see some price reductions, and they wouldn't screw around with things too much... maybe a range of prepaints on the basic troops alongside the regular stuff.

At worst, we'd see the game change from this (http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e84/Zmithy/taugw.gif) to this (http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e84/Zmithy/tauha.gif).

Would that be the same Hasbro that allowed the D&D department to release this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Book_of_vile_darkness)?

Tetchy
22-11-2007, 10:41
Down to 215.50 today.

selfconstrukt
22-11-2007, 17:06
Wouldn't it be possible that GW management in some ways "wants" this to happen, so GW can no longer be a publicly traded company?
I thought the whole reason they went public in the first place was to get funds for modernizing and updating their operations, and to get the LOTR license.
Now that they have all the "new" (which is now outdated) equipment, warehouses etc. maybe GW wants to go back to being a privately owned company now.

Just speculation, I am not very well versed in the stock market so I am not sure if this is a plausible theory.

Templar Ben
22-11-2007, 17:21
It would be very risky and very illegal to manipulate the stock price. If they want to do a leveraged buyout then yes a lower stock price makes doing so easier but it is harder to get the financing because the company is not a proven winner. I don't know the tax laws in the UK so I can't comment on LBOs there. If the LBO is actually an MBO (management buyout) then there is the conflict of interest you mention. In the states an MBO is very heavily investigated as it can be a case of insider trading.

I know MBOs aren't unheard of in the UK as Branson was involved in one a few months back (it was more complicated as it was an MBO/spin off).

starlight
22-11-2007, 17:23
Actually, I Management Buy Out isn't unreasonable and was discussed many months ago. However intentionally manipulating the share price (okay, being caught doing it...) would end up with the lot of them in jail...:(

Getting LotR wasn't an intention back then, as the films were the only reason that would be so profitable and they weren't planned back when GW went public. As well, Kirby left for a time and had to be invited back after the new guy dropped the ball (or so they said), which wouldn't have happened if the intention all along was to do an MBO.

Little Aaad
22-11-2007, 18:14
Well, I know not much about this problem. But what I do know, is that if prices of the products drop.. I would definatly buy much, much more.

Adept
22-11-2007, 19:27
Well, I know not much about this problem. But what I do know, is that if prices of the products drop.. I would definatly buy much, much more.

Well, you'd get more for your dollar, that's for sure. But would you actually spend more dollars?

starlight
22-11-2007, 19:39
While there is a certain logic to the line of thinking that gamers would still be limited to their $50/Quid/Euro/whatever in weekly disposable income, what GW is missing is that a percentage of that money is now being spent on Warmachine, or XBox, or anything *except* GW products. If GW products were more reasonably priced, it is quite likely that more armies would get finished, more new armies would be trialed rather than dreamed about, and more gamers would end up with Apocalypse sized armies.

Another key pairing of points that GW seems to have lost sight of is this:

GW has mistreated their bread and butter regulars (commonly called Vets) for many years.

This does two things:

a) it convinces the gaming group with the largest disposable income to stop buying product

b) it convinces the same group to stop encouraging their *kids* to buy GW product

Thirty-fourty year olds have *huge* disposable income in *absolute* terms (as opposed to percentage, which is what GW focuses on) and the freedom to spend it on whatever they want. By ignoring this group GW has not only alienated the very people who paid for GW's success, but they *also* ensured that the next generation of gamers grew up with a jaded view of GW.

Not a smart move Mr. Kirby...

Glabro
22-11-2007, 19:46
As well, Kirby left for a time and had to be invited back after the new guy dropped the ball (or so they said), which wouldn't have happened if the intention all along was to do an MBO.

Does anyone else know anything about this? I would be interested to know what constitutes as "dropping the ball" in the minds of the board.

starlight
22-11-2007, 19:53
Significant downturn in revenues following the release of 3rd Ed. It was blamed on *the Pokemon phase* as the target market of GW (kids) supposedly spent all their pocket money on Pokemon cards. Sadly this rush to blame external factors hid more serious underlying internal issues, much like the LotR *bubble* did shortly afterwards. GW is well known for using short-term smokescreens to hide long-term ailments, as they are doing now.

Crube
22-11-2007, 19:57
I remember the first buy out of GW, and it did lead to a successful period for the company.

I can only hope that if someone does come in and buy out the company, they do it for the right reasons. ie not to take every last good thing out for profit, but because they care about the games and IP.

I dont expect anyone to go in to not make money, but in my opinion, since floatation, the company has had to operate in such a way as to make money at all costs.

I believe that GW as a company is viable, even with certain management failings and mistakes, just not a high enough level to keep serious investors happy

starlight
22-11-2007, 20:03
Actually, I'll disagree there. If properly run, GW will keep *serious* investors happy. Those in it for the long haul and not interested in daytrade flipping will stand to make a reasonable return (in both dividends and capital gains) over time, which is what serious investors want.

Crube
22-11-2007, 20:07
Fair point.

But I do think that if GW were run the way most gamers want it to be run, it's never going to make mega bucks. If it's run well, it will make a reasonable return, but in my opinion, to keep the many shareholders happy, to has to be focussed on the mighty $ (or Ģ ;)) sometimes to the detriment of the games.

If a team were to buy out GW, with the sole intention of running it as it used to be, as a gaming company, they would still make money...

starlight
22-11-2007, 20:27
Actually I think that it could be properly run to give both a reasonable return on investment *and* keep gamers happy...actually I think that the two are inseperable. A well run company that has droves of happy customers can't help but grow and reward investors.

Crube
22-11-2007, 20:38
I do agree, but I feel GW will be always in a niche market, which limits their ability to make huge returns.

Personally, I feel that the return offered 'as is' isnt of the level that investors want. However, the return 'as is' would be more than sufficient for a team of private investors....


just my thoughts anyway...

brother malthius
23-11-2007, 04:15
Personal opinion not based on any real knowlege of finances or economics:
You know, if I were a non-gaming investor, and I was doing research on a company, and I saw that during a serious economic "event" such as the world has had the past few months, I'd be concerned with what I saw if:
1) The company I was looking at was having difficulty making profits
2) Said company made niche industry luxery goods
3) Said company was releasing a whole lot of very expensive luxery goods (baneblade, 400 dollar box sets) during a time when most people's wages:expenses ratio was evaporating.

Sure, many people are buying these things. But how many are paying with cash versus the all-mighty plastic? Will this be a "burst" purchase with nothing following the next year as the credit card bills catch up, or are they expecting to have the veritible orgy* of post-apoc-release spending become a regular thing?
Commercials/tv shows/magazines portrayals aside, real people don't have infinite spending money to blow on luxeries.

*I vowed long ago to use this phrase where-ever and whenever I could.

Tetchy
23-11-2007, 12:05
Well, now that England has bombed out of the European cup, maybe some of the cash that was going to be spent by the Great British Public on tickets and supporting the tournament will be spent on Baneblades instead...

They can but hope :D

AGC
23-11-2007, 13:42
Actually that's a good point. Scotland are out as well, so if GW can't make profit next year they really are in trouble.

selfconstrukt
23-11-2007, 15:23
I sold my shares in GW about 6 months ago and used that money to pay off my car and I re-invested the rest in other companies, and some I put in my bank account.

I am saving myself $320 a month by not having to make car payments now, and guess where that extra income is going now, not to GW unfortunately.

It would have been nice to have continued to support them, its just not justifiable anymore.

grickherder
24-11-2007, 10:22
Smart move selfcontrukt. If you had to pick an asset to use to pay off debt, GW stocks 6 months ago was certainly a great pick.

Hivefleet Kara'don
24-11-2007, 12:11
Go figure, the other companies are doing just fine in the marketplace
- Cirrus

What, Like Rackham who are in the French equivalent of administration and possibly only have a few months left?

swordwind
24-11-2007, 20:14
Theres more than two miniature companies you know.

selfconstrukt
24-11-2007, 20:28
Smart move selfcontrukt. If you had to pick an asset to use to pay off debt, GW stocks 6 months ago was certainly a great pick.

It was a hard decision to make though, I really wanted to see GW pick itself back up, even though I knew it probably wouldn't happen.

Also, when I found out how much I would get, that pretty much made my decision for me, since the longer I waited to sell, the less I would get since the stocks just kept going down.

Maybe in the future I'll take another look at GW stocks. If they get low enough, and GW's stock probably will, then I'll take some of that money leftover and buy up some more GW stock again this time with the intent of TAKING OVER!

Are you pondering what I'm pondering?

Muahahahahahaha!

Uncle_Cthulu
24-11-2007, 20:29
I also heard that Battlefront (fow) are also in stuck, based on there moving production to S.E asia to save costs (unethical imo) and the New Zealand gov revoking tax breaks for companies that produce in New Zealand

Wyatt
24-11-2007, 21:07
What if GW bought out Rackham? (Or would that be monopolising?)

Or, they could sell some parts of their company off, for example White Dwarf could become a magazine for all types of wargaming rather than just adhammer...

Or if their IP was an issue in that case, they could sell off LotR to a different company.

You know, IMHO the problem GW has is having too many tables in their stores. Don't get me wrong, gaming in stores is fun and all, but there's many times where I've gone to buy something, seen I can't get past the wall of gamers, and thought meh, I'll spend it elsewhere instead. But that's just me.

Bloodknight
24-11-2007, 21:17
Too many tables? All the GW shops I've been to had about two tables on which you could play (ie you don't get to play there because the tables are usually full). The other 3 are for demo games and too small for a real game.

starlight
24-11-2007, 21:33
GW buy Rackham? Nope, they'll leave them to their own devices, just like they did with the rest. An Monopoly implies a single company, GW and Rackham are just two of dozens. GW can't even afford it's own bills, so buying another company right now isn't going to happen.

Selling off parts? Not going to happen. Shutting parts down (such as has already happened with Specialist Games) is far more likely. Licensing out the IP for video games has proven successful so far, so I see more of that happening.

They can't sell LotR as they don't *own* anything, they just have permission to use the LotR IP through licensing. Since it cost them a fair whack of money, I don't see them walking away any time soon...

Actually the opposite is true, GW needs to go with fewer Bunker style stores with *more* tables, rather than less. Activity breeds sales.

Harry
25-11-2007, 07:11
Down to 215.50 today.

Really? Buy, buy. BUY!!! :D

Jo Bennett
25-11-2007, 07:28
What will be interesting is to see how GW rides out a recession in the UK. There is every sign we will get one in the next couple of years and the last time, 15+ years ago, GW was a minnow compared to its current size. I can't think of any comparable British companies that you could look.

Ozorik
25-11-2007, 09:26
Ive not heard of Battlefront being in finacial difficulty. They are actually expanding as they recently opened a mail order facility in the UK as well as hiring additional design staff. Yes they have moved production to Malyasia but that is hardly new in manufacturing terms.

Templar Ben
26-11-2007, 00:43
What if GW bought out Rackham? (Or would that be monopolising?)

Don't think of this as Hasbro and Mattel. Those two little fish are not on the radar.

richred_uk
27-11-2007, 15:47
Share Price jumped off a cliff again today, 202 at the time of writing

so at what point does it get tempting to buy in?

Rich

Vic
27-11-2007, 15:51
It's 52 week low was 180, so I'd wait till it went south of that. BUT, Im thinking its almost Christmas, the stock should have been climbing in anticipation of holiday sales. I think the street is looking at GW as the red headed step child?

richred_uk
27-11-2007, 16:01
IIRC the 180 low was the day after they cancelled the dividend and was only very briefly touched. I think it went from about 350 to 180 (but only 1 trade at 180) then closed the day about 213, so right now the price is above the most extreme panic, but below the day after the worst news they have recently put out.

Looks interesting to me, but coudl be a falling knife.

Vic
27-11-2007, 17:21
If its sniffing the 202 mark, I say ride it out to about its low (180) then buy, IF you feel that GW can turn its boat around and provide a dividend. IF you have extra cash to float, then buy it now (if you feel comfortable enough) and take a short term loss thinking that the stock will rise in value again.

Today's range so far is 200-212.5. It is currently at 203.50. So it touched 200 today but slowly came back up.

My thoughts are, that IF GW doesnt do gang busters this holiday season, it's stock could take a decent hit as the public perception will be that there are few people willing to shell out $$ for toy soldiers and the company would have lost its core value. Comfort/recreation companies historically do well when the economy takes a dip, but that only holds true if the product offered has a perceived value to it. My thinking is that GW has priced itself to the point that the perceived value of the product is very low, especially to the non-gaming public (who also happen to be the primary investors).

It really is getting closer to the point (for me at least) to decide do I want to spend $$ on GW toys, or save up for fuel,food and mortgage. Thats not to say that I would abandon my GW hobby, I would either buy LESS GW than I am buying now, or buy less expensive alternatives (Pig Iron Kolony Militia come to mind). And there are MANY less expensive alternatives. As I do not game at a GW store (I live 200miles one way distance to the closest one), I am not beholden to get 100% GW product. I'll buy the rules, buy the terrain (I really do love their terrain), and occassionally buy a one off if I really want to, but the days of buying a new army I think for me are near over. I'll expand the IG I have, flesh it out with alternative models, and drool from a distance at the new Ork army. My kids like the models, but I cant work with the asking price......

static grass
27-11-2007, 18:26
Whilst I see GW's stock price fall continuously, I am not sure that this will continue beyond Christmas. Apocalypse must have shifted a ton of toy men for GW. Even forgeworld can't deliver enough goods on time. When you live so far from an actual GW and visit forums like this it is very easy to think that the sky is falling.

As we all know GW loves to increase prices and there is a perception in the hobby that it is expensive and I am sure that many mums and dads walking into a store will think WTF so much for little unpainted men. But at the same time there are many less vocal people who say "this is my hobby - this is what I do when I am not paying the rent" and price not the important factor for them, similarly I have known many people/kids who have been spoilt rotten by their parents. Not so long ago I saw a woman in the Oslo store thanking the staff for getting all the stuff and everything organized for her. When I looked at her hands she had two massive bags crammed with hundreds of quids worth of stuff, I thought bloody hell. Bloody hell all I could think of.

Finally If you had gone to a GW store on 13th October you would have seen people queuing ,well nearly this is norway, okay formed a scrum to give their money away or at least this was the story at GW Oslo.

brother malthius
27-11-2007, 18:48
All I know is at the first of this year we had four GW stores in Massachussets. Today, we have one. Ouch.

Vic
27-11-2007, 19:17
Im wondering if the forgeworld problem is due to staffing rather than a rush of orders.

As to the scarcity of GW stores, in the US, this is the norm. Company stores are far and few between. The best exposure we get is through the web or at independent stockists. I dont see the product flying off their shelves (except through discounts). The bulk of my purchases are done online now-a-days...

selfconstrukt
27-11-2007, 22:11
Im wondering if the forgeworld problem is due to staffing rather than a rush of orders.

No, that problem is caused by a serious lack of knowledge in resin casting and moldmaking.
If you had ever seen the FW area in the Lenton factory, you'd understand what I mean, it's a real mess, and they "lost" a number of masters, or bits of models, and still have not been able to locate them all.

Vic
27-11-2007, 22:21
No, that problem is caused by a serious lack of knowledge in resin casting and moldmaking.
If you had ever seen the FW area in the Lenton factory, you'd understand what I mean, it's a real mess, and they "lost" a number of masters, or bits of models, and still have not been able to locate them all.

I still think that that points to staffing problems. FW have been casting how many years, and they are having a "meltdown"? Resin casting isnt that hard, especially if you have professional equipment. I've been casting for my rail road and sundry hobbies for years, and all I use is gravity casting, RTV rubber and colored resin. I sometimes get some issues from the casting curing and creating bubbles, but after a while, you learn tricks that address most of those produciton issues.

I do hope they get it together and fast for the holiday season and beyond. I think they need all revenue streams running IMHO. A "healthy" company doesnt let go people, close up shops, stop product lines etc and remain afloat for long. Grant it, they had to take some of these steps to address past shortcomings, but savings realized from such steps are usually short lived and require that the company does something with the time bought by these tactics, not to mention the costs associated with these steps....

selfconstrukt
28-11-2007, 22:36
Vic, your right, it is a staffing problem.

From my experience working there most of the problem is that the supervisors and managers currently there have gotten to the pinnacle of their abilities, and are unable or unwilling to change.
They have things the way they are, and are reluctant to make any changes, or maybe they are unable I was never really able to figure out which really.
There are a number of things GW can do to make casting both metal and resin much more affordable, but when the subject of trying "new" procedures comes up, they fall back on "Well, thats not the proper way" and usually won't even give it a try.

The few times they had given new things a try, if there was a small mistake, or something else needed to be changed, they were unwilling to continue and took up the opinion that it wasn't worth it.

It also doesn't help that they closed up most of their production in the Memphis plant, even when making product in the US is far cheaper than making it in the UK.

If they really cared about improving the company, they would move the bulk of manufacturing to Memphis, saving hundreds of thousands of $ a year in the process.

This move had already bee investigated by Managers, they found it was true, but nothing ever came of it.

IMHO GW wants to remain an "English-owned" company, and if they started moving to the US it would become a "US-owned" company.

Basically, a large number of supervisors and managers over there are just trying to keep their jobs (or position), and are in a bit of a "rut".

GW needs a lot of new blood.

Templar Ben
01-12-2007, 18:51
What happened to the other GW thread? It is moved and I don't know where.

We get the midyear results in a month. Should be interesting.

Adept
01-12-2007, 19:47
What happened to the other GW thread? It is moved and I don't know where.

It got sent to PnR.

Like the guys there are going to be happy to read through a 750+ post thread, and then reply to people who can't even read the forum.

Bad moderator call, IMO.

Vic
01-12-2007, 20:22
Well, the thread was going off topic towards the tail end. I fed into it when someone brought in the spector of politics....

redbaron998
01-12-2007, 22:01
Anyways a Update, its down to 198.....not good

Vic
02-12-2007, 04:14
I'd panic IF it went south of 180. Who knows, maybe management wants to take it private again?

feelnopain666
02-12-2007, 04:37
He he he. :)

Reinholt
02-12-2007, 16:30
It got sent to PnR.

Like the guys there are going to be happy to read through a 750+ post thread, and then reply to people who can't even read the forum.

Bad moderator call, IMO.

PnR = Place of no Return?

The usual meaning I think of when I see that acronym is Pacific Northwest Region, but I'm guessing that's not it either...

Thanks.

Norminator
02-12-2007, 16:33
PnR = Politics and Religion, which is open to guilders only

Templar Ben
02-12-2007, 16:55
Well we can start a new one. It would make sense because he had a thread for the annual report last summer. The thread started about a month before the results were released so we can start one now.

I haven't heard much about GW's report though. It doesn't seem to be reported much at all.

starlight
02-12-2007, 17:50
Please provide a link for the Search Challenged to reduce the number of duplicate Threads. :)

Thanks,

starlight

Templar Ben
02-12-2007, 18:22
I was asking about this thread.

http://warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101325

starlight
02-12-2007, 18:23
Sorry, I meant the new one you refered to for this release. :) I've been following the other one with great interest. :)

Templar Ben
02-12-2007, 19:43
Oh I haven't started it yet. I was just saying it was getting to be about time so perhaps I should. ;)

40kdhs
02-12-2007, 20:52
The reason this company is in heap of trouble is their mismanagement.

Instead of focusing on their 'core' fantasy anf 40k games, they have LOTR and others which not many people actually plays.

Cities of death and apocolype don't last longer than 6 months because people are not interested in buying a book and other items for this kind of game. How many of you are still playing cities of death.? Not many right.? The same can be said to apocolype.

When they designed WH or DH codex, they didn't have any high expectation. Therefore, not many players actually play these armies because their main love is for SM and chaos. If you spend your time and resources on a product which you don't expect to sell well, why the hell do you want to do it in the first place.?

As you can see, they have wasted their money and resourses in designing unnecessary games or codexes.

What have they done to address these problems.? Increasing the cost of models.? It won't solve their problems for sure. Ask me next year and you will know.
People come and go and I will still be around when GW is gone.

Templar Ben
02-12-2007, 21:26
Sorry, I meant the new one you refered to for this release. :) I've been following the other one with great interest. :)

Here is the thread (http://warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2146567#post2146567) I created for the discussion.

selfconstrukt
02-12-2007, 21:46
The reason this company is in heap of trouble is their mismanagement.

Sort of. The biggest problem GW has right now IS the management staff.

Unless someone at the top (TK) is willing to take drastic measures and actually follow-up on what their managers are doing with their day, and get rid of the useless, the incompetent, the save-asses and the lazy, the problems will continue.

Most of you have only been exposed to either the staff at Games Days, or the Retail staff, which is only the tip of the iceberg.

There are a huge number of other staffers that have a great impact at GW on a day-today basis that you never even hear about and would probably not be able to even name.

Unfortunately, those managers are the GW staff who are making the (poor) decisions, and when something fails, or they louse it up, they throw their supervisors or staff in front of the train instead of taking responsibility for their own actions.

Honesty, Integrity and Humility are the 3 "muses" Tom Kirby talks about, its a shame most of his management staff doesn't measure up to those standards.

And until he is able to grow a pair and take control, GW will hit that large iceberg eventually.

starlight
03-12-2007, 05:31
selfconstrukt: Been there, seen it first hand, got the t-shirt. :(


The reason this company is in heap of trouble is their mismanagement.

Instead of focusing on their 'core' fantasy anf 40k games, they have LOTR and others which not many people actually plays.

Actually LotR outsells WFB and has for several years.


Cities of death and apocolype don't last longer than 6 months because people are not interested in buying a book and other items for this kind of game. How many of you are still playing cities of death.? Not many right.? The same can be said to apocolype.

CoD was as much a trial of new rules as a new set. Expect to see many things from CoD in the 5th Ed Core Rules, just like they did in 4th Ed. Apocalypse is an ongoing project with a new release about every 3-4 months. Expect to see the Stompa in the second wave of Orks. As well, many aspects of Apocalypse will also make there way into 5th Ed. Both CoD and Apocalypse have surpassed *regular* 40K in many places in terms of number of games played.


When they designed WH or DH codex, they didn't have any high expectation. Therefore, not many players actually play these armies because their main love is for SM and chaos. If you spend your time and resources on a product which you don't expect to sell well, why the hell do you want to do it in the first place.?

Incorrect. WH were accelerated because Jervis (or someone, can't recall exactly ATM) tossed the whining over SoB back at a GD audience and asked how many were actually planning to *buy* a SoB army if it got a proper Codex. The GW presenters were shocked when almost every person present put up their hand. Thus we have WH.


As you can see, they have wasted their money and resourses in designing unnecessary games or codexes.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but most of GW's wasted time and money has nothing to do with the gaming side of the house...


What have they done to address these problems.? Increasing the cost of models.? It won't solve their problems for sure. Ask me next year and you will know.
People come and go and I will still be around when GW is gone.

They've done quite a bit as described in great detail on many Threads here on Warseer and other places. I agree that they aren't doing enough, but most of your points revolve around a somewhat limited opinion. Globally the picture is quite different.

Scionscion
03-12-2007, 08:38
I just love the way that posters here proclaim absolute and certain knowledge of what GW thinks and does yet get basic info wrong. The three GW 'graces' that Tom Kirby talks about are Honesty, Courage and Humility - these are inherent qualities that the business looks for within its staff and hopes to find within (and I daresay works very hard to acheive). A 'grace' in this context is a way of being - rather than a way of behaving (a 'muse'), though one obviously begets the other!

efarrer
03-12-2007, 15:16
Incorrect. WH were accelerated because Jervis (or someone, can't recall exactly ATM) tossed the whining over SoB back at a GD audience and asked how many were actually planning to *buy* a SoB army if it got a proper Codex. The GW presenters were shocked when almost every person present put up their hand. Thus we have WH.



Which, unfortunately, was part of GW's ongoing reality problem. People want plastic troops. The company then upped the size of battle sisters squads, without releasing plastic SoBs. THen shock, there were darn few new SoB players. Why?

Because Witchhutners and daemon hunters didn't recieve new support in the way every other force did. Heck they didn't even get the support monnoran orcs from LotR. Darn straight they didn't sell better. Guard have a better points per dollar ratio now then the SoBs.

How much better would they have sold with a good quality plastic kit?

We will never know. To be fair the kits are better today then they were when witch hunters came out.

40kdhs
03-12-2007, 18:26
selfconstrukt: Been there, seen it first hand, got the t-shirt. :(


red or black shirt.? :D



Actually LotR outsells WFB and has for several years.


I was shocked when reading your sentence because we have less than 6 LOTR players at GW's bunker which is SECOND biggest store in USA.



CoD was as much a trial of new rules as a new set. Expect to see many things from CoD in the 5th Ed Core Rules, just like they did in 4th Ed. Apocalypse is an ongoing project with a new release about every 3-4 months. Expect to see the Stompa in the second wave of Orks. As well, many aspects of Apocalypse will also make there way into 5th Ed. Both CoD and Apocalypse have surpassed *regular* 40K in many places in terms of number of games played.


I don't buy your statement because we spend most of our times playing the games between 1500 and 2250 pt game. When was the last time you saw a 3k pt game in tournament or league.? No.?

In the beginning, people are excited about CoD and Apocalypse but their enthusiastic is not there after 2 or 3 months. The fact of the matter is we rarely play 3000+ pt friendly game.

What will you do if nobody buys apocolypse books, big templates, and other stuffs after 2 or 3 months.? Is anybody here ready for raffle tickets.?




Incorrect. WH were accelerated because Jervis (or someone, can't recall exactly ATM) tossed the whining over SoB back at a GD audience and asked how many were actually planning to *buy* a SoB army if it got a proper Codex. The GW presenters were shocked when almost every person present put up their hand. Thus we have WH.


GW can certainly ask these people to buy more WH models because they raised their hands.

What a suprising.!

the same thing can be said about their playtesting.



Sorry to burst your bubble, but most of GW's wasted time and money has nothing to do with the gaming side of the house...


Of course, it does because we will not wait a long time for quality codexes or FAQ if they devote their time and resources doing that .

From a business point of view, you can't expect your SM and chaos to cover all the costs when other products are not sold well.

selfconstrukt
03-12-2007, 18:59
I just love the way that posters here proclaim absolute and certain knowledge of what GW thinks and does yet get basic info wrong. The three GW 'graces' that Tom Kirby talks about are Honesty, Courage and Humility - these are inherent qualities that the business looks for within its staff and hopes to find within (and I daresay works very hard to acheive). A 'grace' in this context is a way of being - rather than a way of behaving (a 'muse'), though one obviously begets the other!

Well, I am looking in my GW red Book of Management right now, and it clearly says "Honesty, Integrity, Humility" in B&W print.

Cypher, the Emperor
05-12-2007, 02:49
The sad part is that GW could fix this just by stopping their ridiculous ego-stroking and do what WoTC did with D&D.

Get to know people, make entering the game more accessible (Warhammer and WH40k skirmish game anyone?) and go out and find their potential fanbase (as opposed to the current strategy of "wait for random 12 year olds to wander into our store" strategy)

I mean seriously. I'm pretty sure that every rich nerdy middle schooler who reads Wheel of Time, Eragon and all these other "best selling" fantasy books is a potential customer.

Gaebriel
05-12-2007, 11:28
red or black shirt.? :D
...
starlight's shirt came with a tie - and I'm pretty sure the company didn't pay for it ;)

Scionscion
05-12-2007, 12:24
Selfconstruct - I said that the three qualities or graces that Tom Kirby talks about are Courage, Honesty and Humility. I did not say that every single GW management publication or internal document has these three qualities highlighted. I too have in my possession a number of GW internal documents and management books wherein it quite clearly and categorically refers to the three graces as Courage, Honesty and Humility. I have also had the benefit of both sitting in on presentations by Mr Kirby which focus on these three graces and of having interesting one-to-one conversations with him about this very topic.

As I said it is amazing how so much is fabricated on this forum from such little actual truth!

brother malthius
06-12-2007, 03:43
As I said it is amazing how so much is fabricated on this forum from such little actual truth!

Oh, coming from someone who every month talks about how that WD is "THE BEST ISSUE YET!!!!" thats rich.

Reinholt
06-12-2007, 05:02
Oh, coming from someone who every month talks about how that WD is "THE BEST ISSUE YET!!!!" thats rich.

Hey, that's a perfectly logical evaluation of White Dwarf if your primary criteria for quality is how big the number on the front is! Every single one would be an improvement over the last.

Ahem.

With regard to the stock behavior, GW's caught in one of those ruts - there's been no good news, there has been bad news, and the market in general is not currently favorable. They'll continue to drop until either some good news has an impact, or they bottom out at some price where potential buyers start thinking it is a solid investment.

Usually the hope is that the price is not zero. On the upside, the recent spike might indicate that below 200 was that price.

Scionscion
06-12-2007, 21:36
But Brother Malthius I haven't posted EVERY month on the quality of White Dwarf magazine - I post as and when I feel the urge to post. Another example of the outstanding grasp of FACTS display on this forum (please check posting history if you wish).

I like many things in life and I am well aware that many of the things I like are disliked, maybe even hated by other people - well that's life! Fun isn't it? I know that many here do not like GW but I happen to like them and what they do quite alot. And I feel perfectly happy about posting my opinions here on this board. I also think it perfectly acceptable to point out errors if i am aware of them. You can take it or leave it - doesn't really bother me any. Being rude to me does not in any way shape or size invalidate my position - and I rarely if ever see a reasoned argument on this board that sways me - largely because of the scarcity of real information bandied about and thus how most of what is posted is therefore merely speculative and subjective. This is a rumours board after all isn't it?

starlight
06-12-2007, 21:46
Actually, nope. :) This is a *discussion* board. Rumours are over that ways. *points*

Gaebriel
06-12-2007, 21:52
... I know that many here do not like GW ...
Interesting FACT. I think you would be surprised by how many people complaining around here actually like GW :rolleyes:

Reinholt
07-12-2007, 03:38
Interesting FACT. I think you would be surprised by how many people complaining around here actually like GW :rolleyes:

Concur.

I would wager most people who complain do so because they like the games / hobby and want it to stick around and/or expand.

It's when people have stopped complaining and started to just ignore something that you know they really don't like it.

brother malthius
07-12-2007, 04:06
But Brother Malthius I haven't posted EVERY month on the quality of White Dwarf magazine - I post as and when I feel the urge to post. Another example of the outstanding grasp of FACTS display on this forum (please check posting history if you wish).


oh, I did. And while your straw man defense that you haven't posted on EVERY month is clever, it is a bit disingenuous. To be fair, however, I'll admit you've actually only posted two reviews since your first post on May 29th. To quote the most recent:


Another brilliant issue that is well worth the cover price. White Dwarf justs gets better and better and this old veteran can't get enough of it. I have it on the very best authority that GW each month sells in excess of 200,000 copies of this fine magazine around the world. I rather suspect that that is of more importance to the management and editors than the stubborn refusal by many on this forum to cede them any credit for a great job!

of course, the other one, which didn't contain the "Better and better" line, still reeks of fanboy-ism:


Top-knotch issue 10 out of 10. Absolutely brilliant photos of miniatures, excellent coverage of the new Mighty Empires expansion (including 2 cover mounted extra tiles with cool detail bits), some very interesting Warhammer Empire material to support the new releases and the really fab official army list for the Blood Angels. In short; loads to look at, to read and to goober over!

Please give us more of the same GW.

In fact, your whole posting history (http://warseer.com/forums/search.php?searchid=501228), down to the post, leaves little doubt that you are either dedicated to GW hegemony in a way that borders on pathological, or are a plant placed here by the company to rah-rah-rah us into swallowing whole whatever feeble misinformation they want to feed us.

starlight
07-12-2007, 04:31
Worldwide circulation of WD doesn't even come close to 200,000...:eyebrows:

Been there, seen the numbers first hand.

Pandemonium
07-12-2007, 13:55
Starlight what is the world wide circulation of WD? The reason I ask is that 200,000 copies of a magazine is amazingly low for a UK mag let alone a world wide publication. Most magazine publishers would talk millions of units not thousands. That said this is a niche market...

Scionscion
07-12-2007, 15:03
Starlight you are WRONG! Gw sells in excess of 200,000 issues of White Dwarf each and every month. You normal and predictable response of 'i worked for GW canada once and am therefore all-knowing in all matters GW' is old and tired and just makes me yaaaaawn with boredom. I get that you don't like GW. Got it. Nailed. Understand. Thank you.

As it happens Pandemonium almost any specialist hobby magazine would love to top 50,000 sales per month - many specialist press doesn't break 20,000 units and an awful lot of specialist press mags just about struggle to do 10,000 units. Some women's mags, porn and near-porn (new style men's mags) do probably have circulation numbers approaching seven digits but they are a completely different kettle of fish. For a wargaming/miniatures hobby/gaming magazine White Dwarf is a phenomenon - an an absolute market leader as counted by circulation.

Hey thanks Brother Malthius for admitting you were wrong as well. Always nice to see a man admit his mistakes.

Later.

brother malthius
07-12-2007, 16:06
Hey thanks Brother Malthius for admitting you were wrong as well.

if thats what you choose to believe I said, then I can't stop you.

ankara halla
07-12-2007, 16:30
Starlight you are WRONG! Gw sells in excess of 200,000 issues of White Dwarf each and every month.

So, how much does WD sell every month?

Vic
07-12-2007, 16:30
Scion: You dont have many friends, do you? Is it dusty in that basement?

ANYWAY

Yes< I do love GW's old fluff, some of their new fluff, and their models. I like that my children like the product line (it appeals to them) and I like that this has been a part of my gaming hobby. I do NOT like what the company has grown into. I dont like their lack/inept marketing, the sloppy rules writing (still better than 2nd ed IMHO) and the artificial price point their product is sold at.

I am not waiting in the wings for GW to have a going out of business sale. I want to see them continue, to thrive and to grow their product lines. I want them to be around another 20 or so years from now when I might be able to introduce my grandchildren to 40k. I just HOPE that GW doesnt muck things up like it seems like they have been doing the past few years.

Some guy (UK)
07-12-2007, 16:47
So, how much does WD sell every month?

Indeed. Sources, and an actual figure would be helpful in getting us on side with what you have stated.

Cirrus the Blue
07-12-2007, 17:13
Scion: You dont have many friends, do you? Is it dusty in that basement?

ANYWAY

Yes< I do love GW's old fluff, some of their new fluff, and their models. I like that my children like the product line (it appeals to them) and I like that this has been a part of my gaming hobby. I do NOT like what the company has grown into. I dont like their lack/inept marketing, the sloppy rules writing (still better than 2nd ed IMHO) and the artificial price point their product is sold at.

I am not waiting in the wings for GW to have a going out of business sale. I want to see them continue, to thrive and to grow their product lines. I want them to be around another 20 or so years from now when I might be able to introduce my grandchildren to 40k. I just HOPE that GW doesnt muck things up like it seems like they have been doing the past few years.


It's like an abusive relationship, eh? We all 'fell in love' with GW long ago (some more recent, but you get the idea) and GW was great and fun and enjoyable to be around for such a long time. But then, it started to change and start talking down to us and even giving us the backhand every now and again. Lately, it seems this to be happening far more often than it used, them beating all of us up, but constantly saying in response to their abusiveness "Hey, baby! I'm so, SO sorry. I really didn't mean to. Here's some pretty new figs to cheer you up. We okay now? I'll never EVER hurt you again!!". And as much as we hate what GW has become, we want the old, caring, fun, happy GW back again and don't want to give up that hope just yet... For many of us, it's hard to let that whole genre and story of Warhammer and 40K go entirely from our lives.

Most people would say "DUMP THE ZE-RO AN' GET YO'SEF A HE-RO!" at this point in the relationship, huh? lol "What's that? Oh! Hello, Rackham! ... Why, no! I'm not seeing another miniatures company right now actually. What's that? Yes! I'd love to go paint with you sometime!" hahaha :D

- Cirrus

Bloodknight
07-12-2007, 17:18
The German WD has about 30000 copies printed.

richred_uk
07-12-2007, 18:15
Dragging this back to the share price, there's been some HUGE trades today and the price closed at 198.25

Volume on an "average" day is in the range of 10 - 50K of shares traded, today there were 3 trades over 100K totalling 1.1M shares (about 3% of the company's stock) all at the same time - this looks like a big investor getting out - any ideas?

Avian
07-12-2007, 18:36
There is this little tip:


SHORT TERM COMMENTARY
Watch out for price rallies over 204.8568, since can be interesting levels to enter short in the market.

Sales were all at 206, so it might just be people looking for a few quick bucks.

Emperor's Grace
07-12-2007, 18:47
In fact, your whole posting history, down to the post, leaves little doubt that you are either dedicated to GW hegemony in a way that borders on pathological, or are a plant placed here by the company to rah-rah-rah us into swallowing whole whatever feeble misinformation they want to feed us.

I’m doubting plant, personally.

If he does work for GW, I’d suspect that he’s using the above references to inflate his actual position (e.g. was the “one on one” an actual conversation with a fellow high ranking manager? Or did Kirby just tolerate some a** smooching while he was trying to leave the seminar?)



A person that is high enough in GW management for this:


I too have in my possession a number of GW internal documents and management books <edit>

I have also had the benefit of both sitting in on presentations by Mr Kirby which focus on these three graces and of having interesting one-to-one conversations with him about this very topic.

Should know better than to talk like this on public boards:


As I said it is amazing how so much is fabricated on this forum from such little actual truth!


Starlight you are WRONG! Gw sells in excess of 200,000 issues of White Dwarf each and every month. You normal and predictable response of 'i worked for GW canada once and am therefore all-knowing in all matters GW' is old and tired and just makes me yaaaaawn with boredom. I get that you don't like GW. Got it. Nailed. Understand. Thank you.

<edit>

Hey thanks Brother Malthius for admitting you were wrong as well. Always nice to see a man admit his mistakes.

Additionally, I see no reason that (if he were GW and in possession of the #) he will not tell us the actual circulation instead "in excess". Circulation #'s are not trade secrets. It's actually in your interest to reveal them and show market domination to potential advertisers. I think that it's actually mandated to be publically posted once a year (in the US).

yabbadabba
07-12-2007, 19:12
It's like an abusive relationship, eh? We all 'fell in love' with GW long ago (some more recent, but you get the idea) and GW was great and fun and enjoyable to be around for such a long time. But then, it started to change and start talking down to us and even giving us the backhand every now and again. Lately, it seems this to be happening far more often than it used, them beating all of us up, but constantly saying in response to their abusiveness "Hey, baby! I'm so, SO sorry. I really didn't mean to. Here's some pretty new figs to cheer you up. We okay now? I'll never EVER hurt you again!!". And as much as we hate what GW has become, we want the old, caring, fun, happy GW back again and don't want to give up that hope just yet... For many of us, it's hard to let that whole genre and story of Warhammer and 40K go entirely from our lives.

Most people would say "DUMP THE ZE-RO AN' GET YO'SEF A HE-RO!" at this point in the relationship, huh? lol "What's that? Oh! Hello, Rackham! ... Why, no! I'm not seeing another miniatures company right now actually. What's that? Yes! I'd love to go paint with you sometime!" hahaha :D

- Cirrus

Funny Cirrus - even if it wasn't meant to be. Funny :D

Mad Doc Grotsnik
07-12-2007, 19:15
I don't hate GW. I hate Nazi's.

Grumbling and complaining are indeed good things. They are feedback. And like publicity, no feedback is bad feedback, in both senses!

As long as people complain, then it means they *want* to be pleased....

However, I do get depressed at times at the general level of chatter on Web Forums, far too much time spent concentrating on demands etc, and not enough about the actual joy of gaming.

And now, I must adieu, for I have a date tonight, and my tummy wants some Curry as well.

ChaosMaster
07-12-2007, 19:18
Oh! Hello, Rackham! ... Why, no! I'm not seeing another miniatures company right now actually. What's that? Yes! I'd love to go paint with you sometime!"
This may be a bad example. Just be glad GW didn't do to its customers what Rackham did to theirs. Imagine if Warhammer suddenly went all pre-painted like Confrontation. If that happened, Warhammer and GW would be deader faster than an Imperial Guardsman single-handedly fighting a Chaos Lord.

yabbadabba
07-12-2007, 19:20
I don't hate GW. I hate Nazi's.

Grumbling and complaining are indeed good things. They are feedback. And like publicity, no feedback is bad feedback, in both senses!

As long as people complain, then it means they *want* to be pleased....

However, I do get depressed at times at the general level of chatter on Web Forums, far too much time spent concentrating on demands etc, and not enough about the actual joy of gaming.


I agree MDG - a people here moan about GW never paying any attention to the site. Well now you know.

starlight
07-12-2007, 20:20
It's funny what some people think is important, but what matters is not issues *printed*, but issues *sold*. A company can print all the catalogues (which is what WD *is*) they want, but when they are returned for shredding, it's just money poured down the drain.

GW Can knew that their numbers were inflated by a factor of 3x (by keeping all expired subscriptions in the database with the active ones) yet they based their decisions on the inflated numbers they knew were wrong. :(

Even disregarding the known error and working from the facts, GW Can had about 1000 *actual* subscribers. Going on the rule of thumb that the US has 10x (actually only 8x) whatever Canada has that puts us at 11,000 subscribers in North America. Figure double that for in store sales (which is high for a catalogue, but we'll give them that) and we have 22,000 sales in North America. One fifth the population of the US/Can market in the UK *but* higher awareness so 40,000 is probably unreasonable, but why not? Add the german figure of 30K (printed as opposed to sold, but we'll go with that for now...) and we have 98,000* for four of the largest markets in the world that GW sells in.

So we are to believe that the additional markets (Australia, New Zealand, Spain, France, The Netherlands, etc, etc, etc) all combine to at least equal the sales of the UK, US, Can, and Ger? Sorry, that simply doesn't hold credibility. :(

I'd be interested to see some actual figures, but until then, 200,000 is unrealistic according to any of the numbers I *have* seen.

And specifically to Scionscion: You obviously don't *get it*. Nor will you as long as you continue to toss around unsubstantiated rumours and opinion as fact while deriding anyone who expresses anything to the contrary. Your *internal documents* sound like the sort of things that were posted in the lunch room for all to read and the management books were available to everyone *on purpose*. So either you work for GW and have access to the same information available to anyone who bothered to ask (but shouldn't be talking about in public), or you don't and you shouldn't have access to it...:eyebrows:

In general:

Properly run companies *want* feedback from their customers, they pay thousands (in some cases millions) of dollars every years to find out how their customers view them. They are *desperate* to know how to keep their customers happy and spending money. It's when those customers fall silent that a properly run company gets terrified, because the reality is that those customers don't care any more and are shopping somewhere else.

*Before* I went to work for them I passed information to them based on my business experience. *While* I worked for them I did the same thing, and *since* I've worked for them I've continued to offer my advice to the people I'm still in touch with. Most of it centres around fairly simple commonly accepted practices adopted by many successful companies around the world. Every attempt has been rebuffed with the explanation that "We're different, we're a niche company so the normal rules don't apply to us."

Well the lack of investor confidence and resultant falling stock price says differently...


Not exactly the behaviour of someone who doesn't like a particular company is it...?

*admittedly a percentage are returned for destruction in Germany as unsold

Reinholt
08-12-2007, 15:14
*Before* I went to work for them I passed information to them based on my business experience. *While* I worked for them I did the same thing, and *since* I've worked for them I've continued to offer my advice to the people I'm still in touch with. Most of it centres around fairly simple commonly accepted practices adopted by many successful companies around the world. Every attempt has been rebuffed with the explanation that "We're different, we're a niche company so the normal rules don't apply to us."

Well the lack of investor confidence and resultant falling stock price says differently...


Hearing someone say that is so common it's not even funny. I have a few friends in the trading business, and even some of my extremely bright friends at Bear Stearns were telling me "no, don't worry, we're different" about the whole subprime debacle about a year ago.

Look how well that worked out.

Nobody is different. Everyone has to compete. If you ever hear otherwise, you know someone is about to take a bath.

Scionscion
09-12-2007, 19:50
Wow! What a festering hotbed of abuse coming at me!

Starlight: your 'proof' of WD subscriber numbers is rather tentaively based around one, count it, one number of 'around 1000 Canadian subscribers' from which you manage to concoct a rather weird and utterly fantastical set of assumptions about all subscription and therefore distribution numbers for GLOBAL White Dwarf sales! I don't even belive you ever saw the Canadian numbers and even if you did just how long ago was it? As for the constant advice you gave the GW management they didn't want to hear it - well that's their perogative isn't it? Oh and you don't work for them any more! A difference of opinion or did they just get fed up with you and fire your ass?

Brother Malthius: you checked my posting history and i did not do what you accused me of doing. When this was pointed out to you you just get rude!

Of course I am a GW plant - whose only aim is to undermine the arguments here and secretly subvert you all into becoming GW fanboys!@*?!!!????? Honestly is that really a real attempt as serious debate or discussion? That would be as ludicrous as a middle-aged teacher trying to subvert Islam by letting her class name a teddy bear Mohammed! Oh wait the clerics of the Sudan actually tried to have us believe that; maybe you have a point and I am an agent of jack-booted GW overlordship that is going to steal your souls and dance on the graves of your War Machine and AT-43 models.

Bye! Au Revoirs! Cheerio! Ciao!

ankara halla
09-12-2007, 20:07
Yeah, okey, but how much does WD sell every month globally? It's a simple enough question.

Some guy (UK)
09-12-2007, 21:21
Yeah, okey, but how much does WD sell every month globally? It's a simple enough question.

Again, I'll add to this request.

swordwind
09-12-2007, 21:36
^ What they said. Cough up the numbers laughing boy.

Reinholt
09-12-2007, 22:45
Wow! What a festering hotbed of abuse coming at me!

This is because you are foolishly confrontational, do not support your own wild postulations with evidence, and you insult other people. I, honestly, would be quite surprised if this were not the case. That would be the remarkable option.

The current situation is nothing more than mundane.

However, your position also bears the burden of proof here - supporting GW as sound in the face of falling sales, shrinking market sales, and declining customer support needs a strong rationale, as it flies in the face of the obvious conclusion based on facts. Thus, without doing so, of course you are going to encounter hostility.

Why are you surprised by this?

susu.exp
09-12-2007, 23:17
*admittedly a percentage are returned for destruction in Germany as unsold

I doubt that. My experience tells me that the unsold copies wind up in the stores and are eventually given away to customers. Iīve been given WDs quite a few times and interestingly most of these issues were current before the local GW even opened, so they arenīt excess stock from this particular GW.

Your figures are interesting, because even at 50,000 copies in the English speaking world, a DVD would be extremely feasible. with replication costs of less than 30p per unit at this scale and assuming that they donīt want to charge more than 50p per issue extra, thatīd be 20-25p per copy or 10,000-12,500BP per issue for production costs. Thatīs certainly in the range of the financially possible.

Emperor's Grace
10-12-2007, 19:22
I doubt that. My experience tells me that the unsold copies wind up in the stores and are eventually given away to customers.

Which is actually worse IMO.

At best, it's "delayed recycling".

At worst, folks that otherwise would've bought it delay in hopes of getting it free.

Norminator
10-12-2007, 19:26
I had a free copy of WD 300 that I was going to keep in hope that some excited WD collector would buy it off me for a lot of money. In the end I realised that no-one will ever collect White Dwarfs, so I binned it.

Earthbeard
10-12-2007, 19:47
I had a free copy of WD 300 that I was going to keep in hope that some excited WD collector would buy it off me for a lot of money. In the end I realised that no-one will ever collect White Dwarfs, so I binned it.


I've not missed a copy since issue 98 :(

Norminator
10-12-2007, 20:00
I've not missed a copy since issue 98 :(

Yes, but what I meant was you wouldn't buy a back issue off me for Ģ20, would you :p

Pandemonium
14-12-2007, 08:50
So no-one actually has any sales info for WD they are willing to post? I take scionscion's point about specialist publications. Also Starlights point about facts. So without further ado here's some sales info on other publications:

http://www.ppamarketing.net/public/downloads/Top100-TotalUKRoIactivelypurchasedcirculation.pdf

Now this is just UK data, not world wide. But they are the top 100 sellers.

forthegloryofkazadekrund
14-12-2007, 09:44
share price as of last night was 198, interesting to see how they do today

Vic
14-12-2007, 16:27
So far they are at 195 Bid, 198 ask.

richred_uk
14-12-2007, 17:17
Last trade 190.25 - ouch

Bid 190.25
Ask 196

It's about the price to look at buying in from where I sit. Market Cap is now under 60M - so if there's 60 millionaires on the boards ...

Vic
14-12-2007, 17:52
I dunno, it may hit <180 when the figures come out (January 4th?). Gamblers might wait till then, or buy in now and take a short hit in the hopes it does a recovery with post holiday sales? Unless GW drops their forecast, inwhich case it may drop lower than 180.

I keep hoping that this is just a correction, but GW's sales were in a bit of a slide before LOTR, werent they? So when are we going to see the real market value on stock as opposed to speculation? Most money would have bought in July or there abouts in anticipation of an upswing in holiday sales. Perishable orders would have come in at that time for holiday sales (you forecast sales at least 6 months in advance for packaged goods and specialty gifts) from retailers, but since GW is a retailer as well as a producer, Im thinking the time frame will be a bit skewed and people are hoping that holiday sales will be kind to GW. BUT, I dont see market activity that people are betting on GW's holiday performance.....

starlight
14-12-2007, 18:02
GW's own Core Games (WFB/40K) have been sliding since before LotR and have continued to do so. For all the griping that some people do, LotR is the only thing that has been carrying GW these last few years (in the sense that if you take out the extra LotR income GW would have declared a loss much sooner). The cash infusion brought in many opportunities, but was mistaken for sustainable growth.

We don't need 60 millionares. If history is any indication all it would take is about 9mil (about 15%) to carry a vote...

DarkWarrior1981
14-12-2007, 18:50
I doubt that. My experience tells me that the unsold copies wind up in the stores and are eventually given away to customers. Iīve been given WDs quite a few times and interestingly most of these issues were current before the local GW even opened, so they arenīt excess stock from this particular GW.


This is true. Independet stores are able to send unsold copies back to the German HQ und recieve a payback. They may send up to 25% of the ordered copies (e.g. if you ordered 20 you are allowed to send back up to 5 WDs).
Actual, this works for all printed magazines, newspapers etc., where stores are able to send some unsold copies back.
All they have to do is tear away the frontcover, so that they are now more or less waste paper.

forthegloryofkazadekrund
15-12-2007, 09:12
its looking like its going down by about 2points per day, its at about 196 at the moment :(

yabbadabba
15-12-2007, 15:24
GW's own Core Games (WFB/40K) have been sliding since before LotR and have continued to do so. For all the griping that some people do, LotR is the only thing that has been carrying GW these last few years (in the sense that if you take out the extra LotR income GW would have declared a loss much sooner). The cash infusion brought in many opportunities, but was mistaken for sustainable growth.

We don't need 60 millionares. If history is any indication all it would take is about 9mil (about 15%) to carry a vote...

You might argue that the LOTR money has replaced the boom and bust sales of SG that were promoted throughout the 90's. Instead you have a constant cash infusion instead of those sales peaks. Again, there were probably smaller, post SG release peaks in sales of 40K and WFB especially if the SG was directly related to those systems.

GW's fundamental problem at the moment is sales. It needs more. Right now, if I was Mark Wells I would be looking at a raft of ideas including getting back into the boardgame market with things like Heroquest, SG limited releases with bargain bundle deals (Like Necromunda rules CD with 2 gangs and scenery - gangs are customisable and you pay one price), GW classics either as a sale or as a free download ( which might encourage a few model sales). I would also look at getting the community back onside with loyalty schemes, feedback loops and an online ezine for the advanced gamer/painter/modeller (for this one I would put links in for websites like forums e.t.c.).

I would even be considering dropping the Retail Chain theory and move to fewer stores, stocking a greater variety of product with greater space and look to having concession stands/lines in other stores, like Woolworths, Argos e.t.c. (sorry those names are a bit UK-centric). Going to a GW store would have a reason and be an experience then.

But overall I would make overtures to the niche within the niche - the old and older GW customers.

Vic
15-12-2007, 15:51
GW's fundamental problem is their insistance that they are a premium product demanding a premium price. While they once arguably were, they arent any more (look at their declining sales) and the buyer is more astute wanting value for the money. The asking price for what amounts to plastic soldiers (albeit nicely sculpted ones) is ludicrous. Ask a non-gamer for a neutral answer (my wife would be more than happy to oblige) and that answer would most likely be "They want HOW MUCH!?!". I like their product, but I find myself buying less and less as their price goes higher and higher. I think that I am in the norm in this (again, look at their declining sales). Now, carry that situation out further, and you have fewer people buying fewer product over a length of time again evidenced by declining sales.

There is also the matter of increased competition fueld by the internet, which has made a high street presence almost superfulous. We are seeing a rennaisance of sorts in TT gaming. We have multiple game and miniature manufacturors that before only sold locally, but now can tap into a global market that at one time was the purview of larger entities like GW. I buy FOW, I have SST, there is Warzone, Confrontation (heck even Heroscape and Clix). We have online "communities" where like minded people can meet and conduct business (The Miniatures Page), we have online discounters (like The War Store), and we have online gaming which has sapped quite a bit of the "fresh blood" away from TT gaming. GW is trying desperately to hold onto the vestiges of the old way to do business. They have the fundamentals for being a multi-media entertainment company (MM meaning online, video, and TT), but i think they are still being weighed down by the "old ways of doing business" and have forgotten the core of retail "the customer is always right". Customers have spoken, but GW would rather listen to the customers who are "rah rah" than the customers who may voice some discent. Unfortunately for GW, the "rah rahs" are steadily becoming a whisper.

Vic
15-12-2007, 18:51
GW's stock closed 190.25 last night. 190.00 Bid, 190.50 Ask.

cailus
17-12-2007, 04:22
I am curious as to how much did Apocalypse contribute in additional sales to GW.

Just judging from my own little club (30-40 gamers - all systems LOTR, WH40K, WHF, FOW, Warmachine etc) Apocalypse did not really result in many purchases.

Unless someone's hiding an army, sales of new Apocalypse related items at my club seem to have amounted to 1 Baneblade and a couple of rulebooks and templates.

Most people at the club acquire second hand items via ebay.

I am wondering whether this trend is global or not.

lorelorn
17-12-2007, 05:00
We'll know when they post their half-year results here: http://investor.games-workshop.com/latest_results/default.aspx

Personally, I doubt it was a huge boost. Kirby stepping down as CEO after his mea culpa and promise to lift sales ealier in the year does not seem to me like the actions of someone who has quickly achieved what he said he would.

The new CEO at least has form as doing a good job of clearing up other people's messes, which is just as well.

Look at this this way - GW got themselves into their current state by repeatedly raising the unit prices of their compenents beyond what the market was prepared to pay. Releasing the Baneblade, the most expenive single model in the 40k range, does not seem to me like a solution, just more of the same.

brother malthius
17-12-2007, 14:37
Releasing the Baneblade, the most expenive single model in the 40k range, does not seem to me like a solution, just more of the same.

Then there's things like this (http://store.us.games-workshop.com/storefront/store.us?do=List_Models&code=306043&orignav=306043&ParentID=1254557&GameNav=9).
Seriously, I thought my web browser was broken when I saw that. $1100? Sure, I guess thats a pretty decent deal, but when you look at it, its still 1100 dollars for 103 plastic men and 5 plastic cars. Thats a big chunk of change to expect someone to plunk down in one go, especially given that things aren't really that economically sound right now.
Right, Mr. Greenspan?

Gaebriel
17-12-2007, 14:56
Well, in itself it's a pretty good deal, paying $1,100 out of $1,330 (= 17% discount)...

What it does illustrate however, is to how much GW stuff will amount when things are bulked together...

A friend recently calculated how much he invested bit by bit over the last years, and it amounted to ~€7,000 - which was scary when we compared what that sum could buy for other wargames we play...

blackspring
17-12-2007, 15:18
I don't think spending $1,000 on a miniatures game is ever a good deal, much less a good idea. Just because you save $300 dollars on a $1000+ does not necessarily mean you got a good deal. The fact that anyone would spend that much money on one game is pure ridiculousness.

It is this mentality that feeds into the GW mindset that only helps to further the idea that GW games are more hobby and less game. GW fosters this mindset not to make a better game, but simply to make more money. While there is nothing wrong with making money, there is something wrong with paying for a game that is less about the game itself but more about selling you the game. And herein is my problem with Apocalypse.

I've heard so many apocalypse players justify their purchases and apocalypse by saying things like, "Look at the deals man!!" The fact is, you're still spending lots of money on models you probably don't need. Or... just keep telling yourself that you really needed those 100+ extra marines, or three baneblades. Honestly, how often are you going to use three baneblades? Honestly.

Osbad
17-12-2007, 15:47
To be honest, a lot of the wargaming "industry", not just GW by any means, is more about selling "the idea of a game" than the real thing.

this $1,000 "deal" is a glaring example, but generally speaking if it wasn't for the huge piles of models that many of us have bought without any realistic chance of them being painted up or played with, the "industry" would not have made the money it has.

There is a certain type of man that reacts to wargames figures in the same way a stereotypical woman reacts to shoes and handbags - rationality goes totally out of the window.

For me, LotR totally pressed my buttons when it first came out and I ended up with many, many more models than I was ever likely to "need" for gaming, or even reasonable collecting purposes. Fortunately for me I didn't spend an absolute fortune as much was bought at deep discount or even acquired for free, but the principle remains. However, since my love of the LotR franchise has waned, I notice the tendency still latent in my genes. It would be incredibly easy to build up massive armies for Warmachine and Hordes for instance.

However, at the grand old age of 39 some form of rationality has set in and I am resisting, successfully, the urge-to-splurge. Currently I am restricting myself to only acquiring miniatures at the rate I can paint them up, and I am only painting stuff that there is a realistic probability of my playing with. I am also coming, gradually, to terms with the awful truth that I derive a lot less fun from playing games than I imagine I am going to while I am assembling the armies. So much so, in fact, that I am really withdrawing from painting toy soldiers as a hobby altogether as time goes on. My Christmas list contains only one single, solitary unpainted model (a Drakhun, in case anyone's interested), although there are several prepainted plastic ones there that will happily sit in boxes requiring zero love and attention from me in-between gaming sessions. It's not that I prefer PPP, far from it, but rather that I don't see the point in acquiring any more unpainted lead. If my friends and family are nice enough to give me gifts, then they may as well be something I will actually use, rather than sit around unpainted in a box for 20 years!

Glossy magazines (not just WD) create this fantasy gaming world of fantastic gaming tables and hundreds of wonderfully painted models which is just a load of hoo-ha for most of us. Sure its nice eye-candy, but we've got to be aware that eye-candy designed to entice us to spend more is all that it is! The cold, hard reality of the thing is that most of us spend more time thinking about and planning for gaming than we ever do playing the games themselves. Sure that's part of the hobby, and it can be harmless enough, but it ceases being harmless when we are peeing away cash that would be better spent elsewhere.

So, my reaction to this deal, as with others before is, is caveat emptor, or "buyer beware"! Don't be suckered into buying stuff you don't need. As with everything in life, it isn't a bargain if you don't need it! A lesson in life that my wife has yet to learn!

Now, don't get me wrong. If someone really would enjoy painting up so many models, even if they are going to end up just sitting on a shelf for the majority of the time, then thats still something worth doing for them. Similarly, if someone can hive off a chunk of models amongst their gaming group or on ebay, then so much the better. But as it stands, I suspect the "unpainted plastic mountain" will be the main beneficiary of the deal!

My name is Paul and I am a lead-addict!

yabbadabba
17-12-2007, 16:33
Then there's things like this (http://store.us.games-workshop.com/storefront/store.us?do=List_Models&code=306043&orignav=306043&ParentID=1254557&GameNav=9).
Seriously, I thought my web browser was broken when I saw that. $1100? Sure, I guess thats a pretty decent deal, but when you look at it, its still 1100 dollars for 103 plastic men and 5 plastic cars. Thats a big chunk of change to expect someone to plunk down in one go, especially given that things aren't really that economically sound right now.
Right, Mr. Greenspan?

That's a good deal over here - the equivalent, with a rough doubling of $'s into Ģ's comes out a almost 33% off.



It is this mentality that feeds into the GW mindset that only helps to further the idea that GW games are more hobby and less game. GW fosters this mindset not to make a better game, but simply to make more money. While there is nothing wrong with making money, there is something wrong with paying for a game that is less about the game itself but more about selling you the game. And herein is my problem with Apocalypse.

I've heard so many apocalypse players justify their purchases and apocalypse by saying things like, "Look at the deals man!!" The fact is, you're still spending lots of money on models you probably don't need. Or... just keep telling yourself that you really needed those 100+ extra marines, or three baneblades. Honestly, how often are you going to use three baneblades? Honestly.

I think the sales apporach to apocalypse is a bit more subtle than that. Only big, grown up hobbyists are ever going to seriously consider buying the Deathwing, and some of the other deals. There is stress in the BRB that this is a game that you just can't pick up for a laugh in an evening - Apocalypse is more about encouraging gaming groups and club play than 1 man with 10000+ of marines. However it makes it alot easier to sell people a "few extra bits" to make their army up to 1500, 2000 and then to add a Baneblade with this game. And this is especially true with GW's so called "core" market of 12-16 year olds. So maybe not entrapping people with $1100 deals (see below) but definitely getting people to buy a couple more terminator box sets and then splitting a Baneblade company with some mates.


To be honest, a lot of the wargaming "industry", not just GW by any means, is more about selling "the idea of a game" than the real thing.

this $1,000 "deal" is a glaring example, but generally speaking if it wasn't for the huge piles of models that many of us have bought without any realistic chance of them being painted up or played with, the "industry" would not have made the money it has.

There is a certain type of man that reacts to wargames figures in the same way a stereotypical woman reacts to shoes and handbags - rationality goes totally out of the window.


Unfortunately (or fortunately for the business?) there are alot more of those people out there Paul than you may suspect. The thing is I bet you that someone called GWUS and asked them for a deal on a Deathwing army, and this is what they came up with. And then they decided to sell it. If it was the US it was probably a few more than just 1 person asking. GW wll still sell these deal because there are a few people left who want to do things like this a s a project, and a lot more whose hobby pockets are bigger than their hobby wallets or rooms. Everytime I go to a show in the UK I see them all over the place, maybe a slowly declining breed, but they are there.

forthegloryofkazadekrund
17-12-2007, 16:54
suprisingly the shares went up by 2 points to 192 1/4, first time in quite a while.

it will be interesting to see the interim report in a few weeks

Vic
17-12-2007, 17:13
Right now 191.25, but the market is looking for a 187.50 price, brokers looking to get 195. Interim reports will be really interesting to see....

Zowy
17-12-2007, 17:59
If I want to play Apocalypse sized games. I pull out my case of Epic minis, Titan and other mega sized units are fun now and then. There is no way I am going to try the same thing with 28mm scale figures. They even have rules for my Squat Land Train :)

Crazy Harborc
18-12-2007, 02:28
I have seen several large 40K games in play when I have gotten to the local GW store. A titan and apcs, medium tanks and a couple of heavy tanks, heavy squads and terminators all over the place. All that, faced off against 5 or 6 LARGE tanks, 4 or 5 baneblades, heavy weapons squads galore. All that stuff on both sides, all loaded onto a 4 by 6 table??!! No room for real tactics, not for me.

Sarevok
18-12-2007, 11:43
Back down to 187...

I'm no expert on these things, but doesn't it usually go UP over the holidays?

Axel
18-12-2007, 11:47
Nope. Any "usual" movement is immediately countered by people betting on it.

As a system as is, the market is totally unpredictable. You need more information then the general market participants to make any predictions.

Reinholt
18-12-2007, 15:04
Back down to 187...

I'm no expert on these things, but doesn't it usually go UP over the holidays?

In the US, prices often drop historically in December for tax-related selling reasons. So I would say that, while I am not intimately familiar with tax laws, that's something to consider if GW has US-based owners.

Secondly, what things 'tend' to do with stock prices is usually a pretty solid trap, as even the best traders are I know try to predict the present, not the future... don't predict stock prices if you are looking to invest. Try to get at the real value of the underlying business.

richred_uk
18-12-2007, 15:49
Falling heavily again today

at the time of writing price is 175, bid of 175, ask of 178. This is below the 52 week low, and an 8.5% fall on the day.

Scrub my 60 millionaires, market cap is now under Ģ55M

redbaron998
18-12-2007, 16:53
(Sigh) 173 today......(cries)

forthegloryofkazadekrund
18-12-2007, 17:03
(Sigh) 173 today......(cries)

i checked at 4.00 and they were at 176 1/2
honestly what is going on , has someone dumped a load of shares or something, at this rate it does not matter what the interim report says there wont be a lot left by the end of the month.

im betting theres a lot of sweaty palmed investors twitching nervously over the sell button tonight :cries:

it seems like kirby stepping down and the new man standing tall at the helm of flagship gw has not really done a great for the confidence of the share buyers.

its becoming more and more sad by the day.

yabbadabba
18-12-2007, 17:06
Falling heavily again today

at the time of writing price is 175, bid of 175, ask of 178. This is below the 52 week low, and an 8.5% fall on the day.

Scrub my 60 millionaires, market cap is now under Ģ55M

Wheres that bloody euromillions ticket ... ...

This is from the telegrapgh - doesn't look like a huge amount being sold.

http://shares.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/security.cgi?csi=12010&action=trades&username=&ac=

ExquisiteEvil
18-12-2007, 17:19
And the vindicated cries of veterens across the globe ring out in unison;

...'WE TOLD YOU SO'...

Its been obvious for the past year this was the way GW were heading(heck its been obvious for the past 3...but moreso the last year)

And yet the sycophantic fanbois have abused us vets telling us

'your in the wrong hobby'

'you dont know what you're talking about'

'GW is fine - la, la, la'

Well sirs - the stock price tells no lies.

It is unbias.

And the stock price is saying what we vets have been saying for years - GW is in trouble, and its their own fault for not listening to their customers and charging what amounts to a small fortune for little plastic men.

Pokpoko
18-12-2007, 17:43
ok.i know that it's good when prices go up,and bad when they go down, and that's all i know about stock exchange. what the hell is this drop then? i mean...173 from 190 in one day?did Kirby just announce GW is going pre-painted?:D

yabbadabba
18-12-2007, 17:44
Well sirs - the stock price tells no lies.

It is unbias.

And the stock price is saying what we vets have been saying for years - GW is in trouble, and its their own fault for not listening to their customers and charging what amounts to a small fortune for little plastic men.

I always thought that Share price was based on the predicitions of a few overpaid, drunken young fools in the Square Mile and not necessarily on any real information :D?

ankara halla
18-12-2007, 18:09
it seems like kirby stepping down and the new man standing tall at the helm of flagship gw has not really done a great for the confidence of the share buyers.

It's a case of "too little too late", but even so it's too recent to have much effect on the stock price.
It's not like the brokers/shareholders only now found out about it and also for better or worse, a helm change wouldn't effect a company this big for some time, and the brokers/shareholders know it.

Brandir
18-12-2007, 19:11
I wonder if the new CEO is on the phone to New Line at this moment in time:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7150644.stm

Reinholt
18-12-2007, 19:20
Well sirs - the stock price tells no lies.

It is unbias.

Enron would like to speak to you.

Stock prices are biased; they reflect interpretations of information, and are subject to all of the usual problems humans have with that kind of thing (if not even more prone to them than usual).

However, they are a good indication of current BELIEF, if not reality...

ExquisiteEvil
18-12-2007, 19:21
I wonder if the new CEO is on the phone to New Line at this moment in time:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7150644.stm

If he isnt then they should hire a monkey with half a brain to do his job instead - because even it yould know that this is one of the few things that could save GW's proverbial A$$


Enron would like to speak to you.

Stock prices are biased; they reflect interpretations of information, and are subject to all of the usual problems humans have with that kind of thing (if not even more prone to them than usual).

However, they are a good indication of current BELIEF, if not reality...

The stock price right now tells us GW is poorly managed. Enron was intentionally over inflated and then covered up.

I doubt GW would intentionally deflate their market value, unless it was some ploy by the managing shareholders to set up a buyout of somekind - but that would be illegal :)

Reinholt
18-12-2007, 19:31
The stock price right now tells us GW is poorly managed. Enron was intentionally over inflated and then covered up.

I doubt GW would intentionally deflate their market value, unless it was some ploy by the managing shareholders to set up a buyout of somekind - but that would be illegal :)

My point is not to specifically compare GW to Enron; I could dredge up many, many examples of stock prices that did not reflect the underlying intrinsic value. Even companies that are large and easy to understand swing from undervalued to overvalued.

My point is that stock prices are not entirely rational - they swing high and low. It's the whole Mr. Market analogy by Graham at work.

Khornies & milk
18-12-2007, 19:44
So whats the number that they have to fall to for there to be irreversible damage, in that Shareholders will 'pull up stumps' and the downward spiral will accelerate even more...150. Or have they been lower than that before?
I agree with most Vets actually...overall they haven't looked after their established Customers well enough...Arrogance and Ignorance to not make for good
Company/Customer relations.

Killgore
18-12-2007, 20:04
I wonder if the new CEO is on the phone to New Line at this moment in time:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7150644.stm

does the current lotr deal cover the hobbit movies?

ankara halla
18-12-2007, 20:05
Of course not

ExquisiteEvil
18-12-2007, 20:10
Also I think New Line are savvy enough to make GW pay through the nose for the Hobbit.

They'll know GW are in trouble and how much money they made off the LotR and New Line will want their pound of flesh.

Also, other companies (im thinking WotC/Hasbro) will probably compete quite aggressively to get rights on this knowing how much it boost the GW coffers last time around.

Norminator
18-12-2007, 20:32
I thought the deal did cover the Hobbit? They did Battle of Five Armies, which is set in the Hobbit, which makes me wonder if they have a license covering all of Tolkien's works that New Line have rights to.

Brandir
18-12-2007, 20:48
GW have the literary rights to The Hobbit,, literary rights to LOTR and rights to the New Line film version of LOTR until November 2011.

I suspect that this news will increase the share price or at least halt it's fall. It will rise should GW secure the rights to the film for tabletop games.

Note that the RPG and TCG rights have now expired. I suspect that WotC would be very interested in securing the RPG, TCG and TTG rights for The Hobbit. If this did occur I suspect that the GW share price would tumble.

The main reason GW spent lots of money on the TTG rights to LOTR was to prevent any other company securing them.

GW must ensure they gain the TTG rights.

Eldanar
18-12-2007, 22:10
My suggestion would be to wait until GW's share hits about 150, buy as much as you possibly can, and then sit on it until about the fall of 2011 or winter of 2012, and then sell it for about 4-5 times as much, before it bottoms out again...

GW will make a killing on it again; and they will ignore every other of their lines as they do...;)

Binabik15
18-12-2007, 22:47
http://www.contactmusic.com/news.nsf/article/jackson%20on%20board%20for%20new%20hobbit%20films_ 1053956

Uhm, I also saw this posted on another site, does that mean that GW will print their own money again or is the LotR license over when those new movie are released?

If they can repeat the bubble you could really make a nice cut with the shares if you buy now ^^ It just sucks that I donīt have the money to buy shares. But even a small sum like several hundred punds could make a decent win, right?

Btw, how can you disable the touch-mouse thingy on a laptop (Acer with Vista)? It plain sucks, it hacks everything I write into bits, jumps randomly around because my hand hovers over it while typing and eated the longer post I wanted to submit this afternoon :mad: I had it disabled once but then the Bioshock demo killed my laptop and I had to give it away (because it was configured that you canīt re-install the OEM Vista yourself:wtf:).

I just hate it, typing this takes about five times as long because of this thing and it just ate my post again by jumping on "back".

Pacific
18-12-2007, 23:00
Am I the only one thinking that the reaction surrounding the release of the Hobbit will be a mild breeze compared to the raging hurricane that was LoTR?

I was fortunate/unfortunate enough to be working for GW during the insanity that was the release of the original trilogy of films and games - prior to this there was a real buzz of anticipation surrounding not only the films, but also the release of the games - a real excitement in the air, and the rush to buy the games as well as influx of new gamers was nothing short of meteoric.

Although I must admit I am looking forward to the release of the Hobbit, I do not sense the same feelings of expectation this time around - after all there will be nothing new this time, nothing that has not been done before. I wouldn't be as harsh as to say that GW are flogging a dead hobbit-sized donkey but to claim that the release of the film and accompanying game will restore their flunked fortunes is more than a little optimistic in my opinion.

Gaebriel
18-12-2007, 23:59
Perhaps the current fall of the stock price is related to the half year results being handed round behind the scenes? They must know the numbers by now, and what if they are really bad?

A license for The Hobbit may at least renew the interest in their LotR line. I don't see that much potential for TTG in The Hobbit itself - sure, a good deal of character models, a bunch of roleplaying like scenarioes, but the only big battle is the Battle of Five Armies - and there is only so much you can exploit that...

So a profit to be made - yes, possibly halting the downfall - okay, but recreating the LotR-bubble, I think not.

Osbad
19-12-2007, 11:49
GW have the literary rights to The Hobbit,, literary rights to LOTR and rights to the New Line film version of LOTR until November 2011.

I suspect that this news will increase the share price or at least halt it's fall. It will rise should GW secure the rights to the film for tabletop games.

Note that the RPG and TCG rights have now expired. I suspect that WotC would be very interested in securing the RPG, TCG and TTG rights for The Hobbit. If this did occur I suspect that the GW share price would tumble.

The main reason GW spent lots of money on the TTG rights to LOTR was to prevent any other company securing them.

GW must ensure they gain the TTG rights.

I believe GW's main ally in securing them may well be Jackson himself. He struck up a strong relationship with the GW design team, and even got personal sculpting lessons from the Perry twins, who went onto to sculpt some ANZACs for him as a commission. I guess Jackson would prefer a company who would make "traditional" miniatures as well as bendy clix ones.

One of the questions in my mind though is whether The Hobbit will be in anyway as huge a global phenomenon as LotR was? No way of telling at this stage, but there could be a lot of money lost if the world in general (rather than just the fans, who will of course be gagging for it) suffers from Middle-earth fatigue! On the other hand, the franchise could reinvigorate everything and be even bigger than LotR was first time around!

Osbad
19-12-2007, 11:53
A license for The Hobbit may at least renew the interest in their LotR line. I don't see that much potential for TTG in The Hobbit itself - sure, a good deal of character models, a bunch of roleplaying like scenarioes, but the only big battle is the Battle of Five Armies - and there is only so much you can exploit that...

But you are forgetting the second film. The Hobbit is only going to be one of 2 films released, the second which will deal with the period in between The Hobbit and the Fellowship of the Ring may well contain more promising material - perhaps they might include the sack of Dol Guldur, or the rise of Isengard and the repopulation of Mordor. There is much potential for battle scenes in those intervening decades!

AGC
19-12-2007, 12:14
The thing that really matters is:- Can GW convert Hobbit fans into regular customers?

They didn't manage it last time and I'm far from sure they've learned why they failed.

richred_uk
19-12-2007, 17:30
Closed at 159 today - down 8.23% on the day

Market cap is now under Ģ50M - lost Ģ10M of company value in 3 trading days - ouch.

This is the lowest value since 2000 - 2001

Gaebriel
19-12-2007, 17:37
If this isn't free falling I don't know what is... Anyone capable and willing to disclose how the major Indices are doing?

Is this tied to a downwards spiral, or is something rotten in the city of Nottingham?

Vic
19-12-2007, 17:43
Rest of the market seems to be holding up, only GW is taking in water. If this price doesnt entice someone to scoop up GW (Hasbro ?), not sure what will, unless someone is betting it is on the ropes and will ride it out a little longer.

Damn, never really thought I'd see it this low.

richred_uk
19-12-2007, 17:48
The FTSE 100 (blue chips) was up 0.08% today, as I write the DJIA (USA blue chips) is down 0.25% and the NASDAQ (USA tech shares) is at 0% movement.

Here is a graph of GW's performance vs the FTSE 250 for the year

http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/z?s=GAW.L&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EFTMC&a=v&p=s

As you can see the overall market has fallen slightly, but GW fell off a cliff when they cancelled the dividend and has gone into freefall in December.

Rich

Llew
19-12-2007, 17:54
So....just out of curiosity...

Do you suppose that people who research the company may look into related message boards to gauge how the customers perceive the company as part of their valuation process? If so, GW would be hurting themselves by not responding to customer input.

That's really a distressing drop and even though they've alienated me as a buyer, I'm always open to returning if they get things fixed and offer me better value and better products. It would be a shame if they don't get the opportunity to try new things.

efarrer
19-12-2007, 18:03
The FTSE 100 (blue chips) was up 0.08% today, as I write the DJIA (USA blue chips) is down 0.25% and the NASDAQ (USA tech shares) is at 0% movement.

Here is a graph of GW's performance vs the FTSE 250 for the year

http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/z?s=GAW.L&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=%5EFTMC&a=v&p=s

As you can see the overall market has fallen slightly, but GW fell off a cliff when they cancelled the dividend and has gone into freefall in December.

Rich

Overrich dividend during the rich years of LotR bubble means the cancelled dividend this year has created a very negative appearance for the company.
It is also possible that there is a suspicion that many of the people who were designers during the glory years are gone, and have not been replaced with similar calibre staff.

The market is thus reacting to a company in a weak position going into a holiday season in which the market area Gw is in is expected to be weak. This may be an overreaction, but the optics from outside would indicate that the Apocalypse bump was lower then expected (otherwise there wouldn't be a new CEO). If that is the case expect the numbers to drop lower. Another possibility could be that the Apocalypse bump, while a larger bump than otherwise might be expected was not large enough to make up for the weak (and rare) codexes to date this year. People are not currently expecting a very positive 1/2 year report, and at the moment there is little reason to expect that.

AGC
19-12-2007, 19:41
Games workshop's share price has got to be one of the most volatile on the London exchange.

http://uk.ichart.yahoo.com/z?a=v&p=s&s=GAW.L&t=my&l=off&q=l

One thing Mr Kirby was right about was that had he tried to manage it day by day he would have gone mad.

Crube
19-12-2007, 19:49
Even to a non finance type person, those graphs dont look too good do they...

Anyone else actually a bit worried for the future of GW now? I was always quite positive about it, but....

Crazy Harborc
19-12-2007, 20:18
All those "protected" GW, IPs. All those master molds (plastic and metal), all the machinery for plastic minies making. The stores and warehouse/factory stock, in bins and boxes/blisters.

See that 005 peak? THAT is when I came "this close" to buying in. Soooo glad my financial advisor is not a wargamer. Nothing lost by me....Nothing gained by me.;)

starlight
19-12-2007, 20:38
I went to GW in 04 to see if we should invest. Based on my time there we decided not to. Six months later the share price dropped 67% in four days:eek: and (aside a few peaks) it's only gone down since...:(

It's worrisome. :(

Crube
19-12-2007, 20:43
I had some GW shares when they were forst issued (at 115p, and I sold them at 300p+

If only I'd held on to them about another year, I'd have got the 800p or so they peaked at... hey ho - such is the stock market...

Brandir
19-12-2007, 20:49
I still own my initial issue 115p shares, and have secured a few more over the years. I did consider selling them in Jan 04 when they peaked at 889p but have kept them in my portfolio for sentimental reasons.

I don't ever seem to remember GW shares dropping 67% in four days Mr starlight. Could you supply the evidence please!

Eldanar
19-12-2007, 21:02
If you go up to post #188, and look at the graph you will see it dropped from almost 800 to about 450 in a short period. That is probably what he is referring to. And also he probably was confusing the entire drop for 2005 where it peaked close to 900 and fell to about 375.

Plus, a stock can have volatility over a short period of time that may not necessarilly be reflected in the closing prices. For example, a stock could open at 100 on a given day, peak at 125, but then fall back to 105 at the close. So the snapshot for the day will say it opened at 100 and closed at 105. But if you sold or bought at 125 then you made/lost a lot more than the particular snapshot shows. That is why when analysing particular short periods you have to look at the high/low.

Conversely, if it started at 100, dropped to 75 by noon, and then climbed back to 101 by close; but you sold at noon, you could care less what the closing amount was because you lost 25% even though the stock posted a modest gain of 1% for the day as a whole.

Normally stocks do not act as extreme as my examples unless they are trading in high volume (meaning lots of shares being bought and sold) or they are in a very speculative market, or both. Very rarely though do stocks get bought and sold in strainght line patterns; more often than not, even on a single day, the graph will more than likely be some sort of zig zag up and down, even if the general trend is inclined to one direction overall more than the other.

So it is very possible, particularly if he looked at the high price for a given day versus the low price 4 days later, with enough volatility, that there was that 67% drop. (But the graph above, if correct, does not suggest that high of an overall percentage drop over that short of a period...although close to one...)

Vic
19-12-2007, 21:15
Hmmmm.....guess rabid, price-insensitive fanbois dont buy nearly as much as GW believed? Will they now smell the coffee and do SOMETHING to bring in sales????

ICEBERG DEAD AHEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AGC
19-12-2007, 21:27
My guess would be it actually hasn't much to do with GW. More to do with what else investors could be putting their money into. At the moment GW looks a risky proposition and with the rest of the "toy" sector not doing well I'd suggest that investors are transferring to safer markets. (Metals and China would be my bet.)

Brandir
19-12-2007, 21:37
GW has suffered a number of times in the past because the traders and so-called intelligent computer systems treat GW as either a computer game company or a toy company.

As the toy industry is reporting a big drop in sales this Christmas I suspect that many city traders are assuming GW is a toy company and has a similar problem and therefore the share price reflects this.

Brandir
19-12-2007, 22:01
Mr Kirby does not hold a majority of GW shares 0 about 6% if I remember correctly.

Reinholt
19-12-2007, 22:13
So....just out of curiosity...

Do you suppose that people who research the company may look into related message boards to gauge how the customers perceive the company as part of their valuation process? If so, GW would be hurting themselves by not responding to customer input.

Unlikely. Most analysts sit in ivory towers, pay real attention only to a few large companies, and rely on financial statements, press releases, and a brief phone call for many of the others. I have witnessed that behavior over and over firsthand. The rare analysts who really hit the road and beat the bushes are worth their weight in gold, but they are not common.


If this isn't free falling I don't know what is... Anyone capable and willing to disclose how the major Indices are doing?

Is this tied to a downwards spiral, or is something rotten in the city of Nottingham?

Retail is not strong right now - there are questions about sales numbers being sustainable, the degree of discounts being offered, and the strength of holiday spending - but it's not especially weak. Overall, retail is not a cause for depression and outright grief in the way subprime is.

Thus, this kind of drop is abnormal for retail currently and not in line with a large industry decline. The obvious explanation is that it is a reflection of GWs very poor performance of late. Obvious is not always right, but that is the one that jumps out first.

stonehorse
19-12-2007, 22:17
Wow, those graphs just look scary. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at GW HQ tomorrow... oh the frantic running around like headless chickens that must ensure, Priceless.

As a Vet I'm strangely happy to see GW reap what they have sown. I'm hoping this will be a wake up call, but I won't hold my breath... this is after all GW.

I think the only money I'll be putting in their coffers in the coming year will be on paints, a second LOTR army, and a small selection of Orks for Gorkamorka. The funds for these will be coming from the GW armies I sell on Ebay... so not much from me!

GW I think need to turn themselves around into a Games Company, and not a way to sell several dozen Space Marines to small children.

aenarion67
19-12-2007, 23:24
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!! crap!!!! gamesworkshop needs to pull itselft up. none of us here want to lose our hobby do we? maybe if gamesworshop reduced its prices to a reasonable amount maybe it could soar up. didn't apocalypse gain any profits??? it looks like it just fell flat.

Khornies & milk
19-12-2007, 23:38
So by what several obviously Stock Market savvy posters are saying on here is that its a case of 'Peaks and Troughs', and GW just has to ride it out - yes/no.
I have limited knowledge of these things...used to dabble in 'Options' a few years back,
so I know the Share price can fluctuate due to very inane and seemingly obtuse things happening, so Kirby choosing to drive his Roller to work instead of his Bentley could make them nervous.
Man, I hope the GW Board all ritually give themselves an uppercut when they get to work today, and have a good hard look at themselves.
So long as they do something...and don't just do nothing.

Reinholt
20-12-2007, 02:53
So by what several obviously Stock Market savvy posters are saying on here is that its a case of 'Peaks and Troughs', and GW just has to ride it out - yes/no.

Objective facts:

GW's price is far down from the peak.
GW's business fundamentals are currently poor.
The surrounding economic climate for retail is not strong.

Therefore, the obvious explanation is that the dropping share price is a result of GW's poor position. The caution I have is that this is not necessarily true, and share prices are not necessarily rational; if you really want to evaluate a business, look at the fundamentals, not the stock price.

Hellfury
20-12-2007, 03:01
I am glad I am not the only one who saw the poor performance today. Glad I saw this thread.

Anyways, last year on November 26th, Kirby bought a ton of stocks at a hold price of around 350. And by ton I mean a HUGE quantity (142,000 shares, upping it to 2.047 million shares total or about 6.6 percent of the company). Even though Kirby isnt head honcho, he still has say in matters.

If I were him, I would be firing some people who have less than stellar track records and try to inform people that broad changes are being made to make consumers more happy with the purchases they make. I would be damned if the Developers who arent very popular right now (read: Jervis) are allowed to keep their jobs much longer.

Otherwise, his rather huge investment which is up in the multi millions will be nothing.

Last year I swore if GW fell to around 200 I would buy. I dont have the same confidence now. I really doubt that this is Dead cat Bounce. Sure, it will fluctuate, but it is still on a downwards trend. But then again, considering how poorly GW is doing, and the state of the economy (Oli going to $100 a barrel recently) this fringe luxury industry isnt going to be so hot.

Nope, I wouldnt touch it with a ten foot pole.

theluc
20-12-2007, 03:16
vets are the first customers, and most of them are fluffy players, spending cash without counting ( paul knows what it is ) in any case GW tries to sell us 1k bundles till out of stock could be a trick for a max profit bankrupt. the thing is that some of the key staff that design and promote us the games just won't listen us.. and GW thinks that the fanboys and power gamers are their primary customers which is not the case, the fact is that passionate players and fluffy ones ( could almost be all in the same category )are the one that are really spending.

those already familiar with the game , faced with that much rule change is bad business. plus the fact that invalidating models all this more than one time . GW should thank the community to be so loyal otherwise they would be bankrupt even before the vets sounded the alarm.

the apoc bubble had been killed the day they told us about there would be no VDR ( vehicle design rules ) lotr may make a come back with the Hobbit movie
but then again as a long term money entry it's not viable and in current situation seems a bit late. the rules affect the mini sales very closly and should offer fluffyness, endless possibilities and of course balance to stay competitive. streamlining the game is a good move but the way its being done is plain wrong, generic units is almost promoting the count as rule which is bad.. i should then play fantasy with the super cheap pre-painted D&D plastic minis. whats the point of buying a certain type of daemons from games workshop when there is millions of daemon minis out there.. so they shooting themselves in the foot by doing so. my re-write codex for chaos need work but i think im on the right track. then again home grown rules are rarly accepted.

we may repeat ourselves over and over, till they listen to us and wake up
but i lost my faith they will ever do so no wonders shares dropping down..

Vic
20-12-2007, 03:31
@ theluc:

Wow, I think you have a point somewhere in your post, damned if I could find it. Grammar is your friend :)

From what I did get out of your post, I think you are making rather big assumptions about GW's lack of sales. The downward slide occurred well before Jervis took the helm. Actually, I like his attempt at cleaning up the rules and attempting to get consistancy. This would be a first in my near 20 years experience in the GW hobby.

As to "spending cash without counting", I dont know of many adult vets who do that. At 37 years of age, I watch what I spend. GW seemed to believe that their customer base was "price insensitive". I hope that after this drop in stock, they come to realize they were operating under false assumptions about the buying public at large.

Crazy Harborc
20-12-2007, 03:42
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!! crap!!!! gamesworkshop needs to pull itselft up. none of us here want to lose our hobby do we? maybe if gamesworshop reduced its prices to a reasonable amount maybe it could soar up. didn't apocalypse gain any profits??? it looks like it just fell flat.


IF....I said if, GW goes down and out, nobody will start confiscating all the GW minies we own. The rulebooks, armybooks and codexs will not burst into flames. The "hobby of wargaming" will still exist. Millions of people (world wide) were wargamers before GW came along. Millions (not playing GW rules) still are.

Nothing lasts forever....BUT.... I don't think GW is at the end of the line....ready to go out of business.

theluc
20-12-2007, 05:05
vic , you are right .. and grammar is not my strong point.. my french is alot better

not saying that customers are price insensitive but big buck spenders are the passionate of the hobby and the fluff.. in any case i try to express myself best i can in english..

for the moment as i see it .. with a drop like that .. gw products will become relics of an era .. and the game will become a , by player for players community

as for jervis and gavin .. im no fan of either of them , a company is a team so team work is lacking inside games workshop as communication between GW and customers ..

only thing we can really do is watch the ship sink, they dont care

aenimosity
20-12-2007, 07:12
Out of curiosity what happened to make the stocks drop in 2000 - 2001?

efarrer
20-12-2007, 07:42
I am glad I am not the only one who saw the poor performance today. Glad I saw this thread.

Anyways, last year on November 26th, Kirby bought a ton of stocks at a hold price of around 350. And by ton I mean a HUGE quantity (142,000 shares, upping it to 2.047 million shares total or about 6.6 percent of the company). Even though Kirby isnt head honcho, he still has say in matters.

Otherwise, his rather huge investment which is up in the multi millions will be nothing.

Last year I swore if GW fell to around 200 I would buy. I dont have the same confidence now. I really doubt that this is Dead cat Bounce. Sure, it will fluctuate, but it is still on a downwards trend. But then again, considering how poorly GW is doing, and the state of the economy (Oli going to $100 a barrel recently) this fringe luxury industry isnt going to be so hot.

Nope, I wouldnt touch it with a ten foot pole.

Depends on whether or not it was a sweetheart deal with a limit to how far down it could go. In fact if I were GW I would be very concerned about that potential liability.

forthegloryofkazadekrund
20-12-2007, 09:03
as of yesterday night gw shares fell by over 32 points in 2 days, if it carries on with this trend it will be between 10 - 15 reduction today :cries:

AGC
20-12-2007, 10:23
Objective facts:

GW's price is far down from the peak.
GW's business fundamentals are currently poor.
The surrounding economic climate for retail is not strong.



Yes, but this has been true for some time and as far as we know GW was surprised by the strength of demand caused by Apocalypse. The point is there is no particular reason for the price to be falling now.

His Master's Voice
20-12-2007, 10:46
Barring the fact that the whole toy industry took a hit recently, could it be someone on the inside 'rocking th boat'? I admit I have no real knowledge about stock markets so this might be total rubbish but with GW you have to be paranoid.

yabbadabba
20-12-2007, 11:30
Out of curiosity what happened to make the stocks drop in 2000 - 2001?

It was kind of a repeat of what is happening now. Most people blame the Pokemon phenomenon, but actually what happened was GWUK decided it could sell it's products to anybody down to the age of 8 years old. Despite the unease of many of the UK shop managers, this was pursued and it alienated Adult customers. as well as setting GW up for a fall as the 8 year olds went on to another "fad". So, GW sell to a younger audience, alienate the older audience, and sales fall. Sound familiar? As a regular shop customer in 2000/1 I was told that the only way they could turn it around was to get the adults buying again. I can't tell you how much I wish I was hearing that mantra now.

For those of you who blame GWHQ for not listening to customers, they also haven't listened to a huge number of veteran shop managers, many who have sadly left. These people (and I know a few) had developed an instinct for the business based on the customers they saw in their stores. Many Execs forget that in Retail, your frontline staff often have as good a grasp of what is happening to the business as the best of analysts, even though they couldn't use big buisness words to describe it.

As an aside a management buy out could be a possibility. It would get rid of the needs for shareholders and their syphoning of profits and, if GW secure the Hobbit licence, this could pay for the money needed to be borrowed to buy the company.

Sarevok
20-12-2007, 12:11
I wonder how much the guys at the top actually care about the rules? Probably not much. Just what gets released and when.
And that's why the rules are in such a mess right now, because the people writing them have been allowed free reign without having to answer to anyone.

Glabro
20-12-2007, 12:50
vic , you are right .. and grammar is not my strong point.. my french is alot better

in any case i try to express myself best i can in english..


Your English is fine, but the point he was making that you need to pay more attention to punctuation, capital letters and all that.

yabbadabba
20-12-2007, 12:55
Your English is fine, but the point he was making that you need to pay more attention to punctuation, capital letters and all that.

I don't remember this being a thread about syntax? Or this being a community about the correct use of the english language. I thought this was a community of wargamers and this was a thread about GW's stocks. Stick to the thread and the real reason for this site. If you want to quibble about language, start a new post.

Osbad
20-12-2007, 13:20
GW has suffered a number of times in the past because the traders and so-called intelligent computer systems treat GW as either a computer game company or a toy company.

As the toy industry is reporting a big drop in sales this Christmas I suspect that many city traders are assuming GW is a toy company and has a similar problem and therefore the share price reflects this.

But isn't GW now simply a "toy company" what else would you call little plastic men played with by 10-16 year-olds other than a "Toy"?

If GW were mainly selling "games" rather than "toys" then I would agree with you, but until the recent wrangling with the rules by Jervis GW was overtly complacent about the quality of their rulesets seeing them as far less important than the models in their business plan.

In addition taking such things as the "dummed down" style of the current WD compared to what it was a couple of years back and the style of the artwork for 40k and WFB which is clearly aimed at tennage tastes. Even consider the music that is played in store and the way store staff are trained (which often tends to irritate older folks no end with their "scripted" approach and such). Such things clearly indicate to me that the "core demographic" is around 14 nowadays, while back in the '80's (when I were a lad) I would say it was aimed more at those around the 18-24 age bracket.

Now what are 14-16 year-olds other than "children"? (Certainly they are by law, I mean no offence to members of this board who are that age bracket - I am well aware there are many mature teenagers out there! )

So again, by definition I would say that things produced for the amusement of children are by definition toys.

If it quacks like a duck...

brother malthius
20-12-2007, 17:58
While recently reading "Decent of Angles" by Mitchel Scanlon, which, despite being called a Horus Heresy novel doesn't really have anything to do with the Horus Heresy, I came across the following quote in the story:

"In his day, he was a great General" shrugged Kurgis, "Or so they say. It happens sometimes. A man is made a chieften, and, soon, all that is important to him is his status. He becomes deaf to any voice that doesn't try to soothe and cosset him. Before long, he only listens to those who tell him what he wants to hear."
-- Decent of Angles, pg 327.

I thought it was amusing and a bit ironic that this should appear in a GW publication given their current...situation.

AGC
20-12-2007, 18:53
Closed today at 158.25p. Only down 0.47%, it might be the start of it flattening out.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GAW.L&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Edit: That's wierd here http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GAW.L&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= (http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GAW.L&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=) it says 155.25p

Gaebriel
20-12-2007, 19:10
The London Stock Exchange (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/system/detailedprices.htm?sym=GB0003718474GBGBXSEQ1037184 7GAW), where it's listed, has it at 155.25.

AGC
20-12-2007, 19:32
Thanks for the pointer, it says here, http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/System/DetailedPrices.htm?sym=GB0003718474GBGBXSEQ1037184 7GAW#PriceChart that it's down 2.36%.

From now on I'll not be trusting yahoo finance.:mad:

yabbadabba
20-12-2007, 19:51
looks like someone was snapping up some bargain shares today:

http://shares.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/security.cgi?csi=12010&action=trades&username=&ac=

Reinholt
20-12-2007, 19:54
Yes, but this has been true for some time and as far as we know GW was surprised by the strength of demand caused by Apocalypse. The point is there is no particular reason for the price to be falling now.

I disagree completely.

It is objectively observable that the stock is, in fact, falling now. Therefore, there is a reason for it.

Now, I have no idea what that reason is. Maybe GW got lucky and a bunch of people decided to sell based on poor fundamentals. Maybe one sold and then others started asking questions and followed. Maybe someone holding a large GW position has a liquidity issue. Maybe people are locking in tax losses at the end of the year. I don't know what the reason is, and I'm not going to guess, but stock prices fall when more people want to sell than want to buy.

Whatever the reason is, that's the case here.

AGC
20-12-2007, 20:25
The point I was making was that since there doesn't seem to be anything about GW that has recently changed for the worse, it is more likely to be that investors have recently found other stocks that have changed for the better.

I was not saying there was no reason for a price fall, I do not believe GW's share price to be totally random.

Vic
20-12-2007, 20:51
Your English is fine, but the point he was making that you need to pay more attention to punctuation, capital letters and all that.
A little OT, but bear with me. Im trying to avoid ill will that wasnt meant.
I really wasnt thinking along those lines. I kind of figured that english wasnt his first language, it was just hard to follow his train of thought because of the lack of punctuation etc, understandable because of the language barrier. I dont think Luc thought I was being abrasive, this post is just to make sure he knows (as well as others) that I wasnt trying to be divisive.

This is a good thread, and I'd like to see it continue without the "drama" that sometimes crops up.

brother malthius
20-12-2007, 22:26
Despite how my posts have sounded, I for one do not wish GW to be purchased, especially by Hasbro. I just want them to clean up their goddamn act and behave like a company that depends on its fans/customers.

NotElite
20-12-2007, 22:47
Not for nothing, but GW's future might very well depend heavily on the success of the Warhammer: Age of Reckoning (WAR) MMO.

theluc
20-12-2007, 23:21
dont worry Vic , i know sometimes i may be hard to follow.. but im still paranoid about my hobby being phased out !!! already happened with chronopia

Whitesun
20-12-2007, 23:23
well, I suppose the poor return on investment finally caught up with them. I would suspect we see the stock fall a little more, not much fundamentals at the moment. When most retail outlets seems to be going online, GW seems to actively turn away from it.
With some sentiments predicting some type of correction in the market and potential lean times, highly priced luxury toy soldiers don't seem the safest place to park money, especially with the uncertainty and poor financial returns over the last FY.

brother malthius
20-12-2007, 23:59
Not for nothing, but GW's future might very well depend heavily on the success of the Warhammer: Age of Reckoning (WAR) MMO.
I find this unlikely. The set of customers that are both MMO players and TTGers is somewhat small. And lets be honest, both hobbies are complete time suction beasts. You can't really be successful at both at the same time. And most people will take the route that is both easier and cheaper.

Batwings
21-12-2007, 01:52
I expect Warhammer: Age of Reckoning to be a moderate success.

That's about it.

It's unrealistic to expect the game to be some massive WoW-killer and provide a significant source of revenue to see GW through these tough times. Let's be honest, if the solid gold I.P. behind Lord of the Rings Online didn't set the world aflame, I can't imagine the Warhammer world fairing a good deal better, regardless of the quality of the actual game itself.

baldbeachbum
21-12-2007, 02:06
Makes sense. What is happening is the gov is pushing money to support big business that lost a lot of money to bad ARMs. Supposedly this is what is contributing to the sluggish USA economy.


I think the others are right, it's reflecting the economy as a whole. A lot of people are being hit by what appears to be problems in the American housing market (I'm no economist and don't really understand it), and as GW products are luxuries they are the first to be hit when people have less money.

selfconstrukt
21-12-2007, 02:20
The only way (IMHO) GW can get itself righted is by cleaning house.

But this time do it where its needed. Instead of the Plebs (hourly staff), they need to start with the middle management and work their way upwards.

They need to get rid of people like Mark Wells, Nick Unit, Paul Thomas (maybe) and a large number of "middle and upper managers" because they are the ones responsible for the state of GW today, not just Tom Kirby.

But this is not what they did.

Everyone here has heard the phrase "S**t rolls downhill", so the managers covered their behinds, using their position to protect themselves, and blamed the supervisors and hourly staff. They are the ones who ultimately get fired (made redundant) and pay the price, while the managers get to try again in the new year (with their yearly raise to boot).

And then they screw up again. Repeat ad nauseum

And what does GW do to correct this? They put one of those guys in charge!

I don't want to see GW go under either (which will never happen anyway) but really, who do they thin kit actually making those decisions? The box packers? The Casters?

NO! The M-A-N-A-G-E-R-S are responsible. They need to go!

I felt the need to spell this out to whichever GW staffer may be reading; well, hopefully reading.

Eldanar
21-12-2007, 04:21
Once again I will use my trying to turn the Titanic in an ice field analogy. While Apoc was/is probably good for the short term, it will take several sustained Apoc type releases to get the kind of turn around GW needs for investors to buy in again. It also will take a couple of years for the effects of the write offs, lay offs, etc., to really begin to effect the bottom line positively.

Two years from now, if they can continue to have the type of short term release succes they have had with Apoc repeated, and when the write offs are fully accounted for, and when they are no longer having to absorb unemployment payments for layed off employees and paying for closed retail space, etc., there just might be a perfect storm of good events that will cause the stock to jump up again. But it is really going to take about that long...maybe 18 months in the shortest...to really get back on track.

cailus
21-12-2007, 05:42
I think we have to see the mid year sales figures to see if Apocalypse type releases represent a viable sales strategy.

If the mid-year figures are unsatisfactory I expect the stock to plummet further.

I would not be surprised if this resulted in an unsolicited take over bid from a major manufacturer in order to get a hold of the IP.

I think that a take over would be bad news for gamers- hobby could be dumbed down even further while unprofitable lines or races as we call them disappear from the shelves.

Crube
21-12-2007, 11:35
On the flip side, Cailus, if the share price drops further, could it herald a management buy out? IMO that would be much better for the GW hobby, as the company would no longer have to suck up to corporate investors...

MoopMoop
21-12-2007, 12:41
On the flip side, Cailus, if the share price drops further, could it herald a management buy out? IMO that would be much better for the GW hobby, as the company would no longer have to suck up to corporate investors...

On the other hand a management buyout would probably cost alot more than GW managers can afford (or risk). It has been done once before, but at that time the list price was far below present market capitalization, even taking the recent stock plunge into consideration.

But I could see the possibility of restructuring specialized Private Equity firms eyeing GW. Provided that they knew anything about the wargaming market, that is. Other entertainment conglomerates initiating a LBO would also be feasible at some point.

robertsjf
21-12-2007, 13:31
Didn't see it in the 11+ pages we're up to but how about PJ comng to the rescue with 2 Hobbit films?

THE CHIEF
21-12-2007, 14:00
looks like someone was snapping up some bargain shares today:

http://shares.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/security.cgi?csi=12010&action=trades&username=&ac=

That 'largest trades' table - is that showing (presumably) one person buying Ģ312,000 worth of shares in three seperate chunks, then selling them all in one go? Why would they do that? (I know nothing about this area - that just struck me as interesting and odd).

Vic
21-12-2007, 14:01
Stock price manipulation?

MoopMoop
21-12-2007, 14:04
That 'largest trades' table - is that showing (presumably) one person buying Ģ312,000 worth of shares in three seperate chunks, then selling them all in one go? Why would they do that? (I know nothing about this area - that just struck me as interesting and odd).

It might be a trade agent acting on someone elses behalf but under its own name. I.e formally buying it and then selling. What the reason is I wouldn't know, but the buyer might want to remain unknown or something.

AGC
21-12-2007, 14:26
I saw that big sell this morning but didn't relate it to the two earlier purchases.

This (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/system/detailedprices.htm?sym=GB0003718474GBGBXSEQ1037184 7GAW) may be of use.

It shows there's been quite a lot of automatic trades. Definitely something odd going on.:confused:

Brandir
21-12-2007, 14:28
We will have to wait for merchandising announcements with regards The Hobbit and TBC. If GW secure them I expect a bounce. If they don't and a credible rival snaps them up I would suggest GW's shares would dip even more.

Potential rivals include Wizards of the Coast, Rackham/Fantasy Flight Games and Privateer Press.

Crube
21-12-2007, 14:31
Can anyone really see anyone other than GW getting the Hobbit licence? The only one I can potentially see even trying is WotC, but then GW have already done well with LotR so...

Lets hope that if they do get the licence we dont see the same bubble , then burst bubble effect of LotR...

I agree, it coould certainly have a major effect on share price as you mention Brandir

Bloodknight
21-12-2007, 14:40
I expect less people to jump on the Hobbit bandwagon than on the LotR people, but that is just because of the anecdotal evidence that I know mostly people who have only read LotR and hate hobbits ^^.
No, seriously, I think that the Hobbit has far less oomph than LotR and it should maybe seen as a cash infusion, but not as a saviour.

MoopMoop
21-12-2007, 14:45
I saw that big sell this morning but didn't relate it to the two earlier purchases.

This (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/system/detailedprices.htm?sym=GB0003718474GBGBXSEQ1037184 7GAW) may be of use.

It shows there's been quite a lot of automatic trades. Definitely something odd going on.:confused:

Automatic trades aren't anything special, happens all the time. Pre-set sell prices and such triggers automatic execution, computer finds a matching buyer, and boom, Equity changes owner. If you take a look at the rest of the Equity listed at the LSE you'll notice that most of the trades going on are indeed automatic ones, as it's the normal mode for ttrading of (comparatively) small posts. This might be helpful;

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/priceshelp/tradetype.htm

Brandir
21-12-2007, 14:56
I can see other companies going for The Hobbit licences. Mongoose are another such company. Imagine Mongoose securing the licence. They are RPG specialists who are desperate to break into the TTG arena. Securing The Hobbit would be a major coup for them, especially if they also had the RPG licence.

Would another company securing The Hobbit TTG rights affect GW? Of course it would. The brand recognition would potentially entice the 8 - 13 age group to the The Hobbit products and away from WHFB/WH40K.

AGC
21-12-2007, 15:06
Automatic trades aren't anything special, happens all the time. Pre-set sell prices and such triggers automatic execution, computer finds a matching buyer, and boom, Equity changes owner. If you take a look at the rest of the Equity listed at the LSE you'll notice that most of the trades going on are indeed automatic ones, as it's the normal mode for ttrading of (comparatively) small posts. This might be helpful;

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/priceshelp/tradetype.htm

I know that Automatic trades per see aren't special, but I thought those things were usually set to buy and sell at whole numbers eg. sell 500 shares when asking price > 200p, buy 250 shares when offer price < 150p.

Also are I didn't think GW had that many owners who would use such a service, most of it belongs in big chunks to Investment companies or in really small chunks to small shareholders. The amounts being traded are in between.

His Master's Voice
21-12-2007, 15:14
I would not be surprised if this resulted in an unsolicited take over bid from a major manufacturer in order to get a hold of the IP.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it that GW is just the front end of the whole company, holding the moulds and casting machinery while "borrowing" the IP from a privately owned company that is the back end of the whole deal? If so, buying GW gives you a lot of moulds you cannot use and some second hand casting machinery.


We will have to wait for merchandising announcements with regards The Hobbit and TBC. If GW secure them I expect a bounce. If they don't and a credible rival snaps them up I would suggest GW's shares would dip even more.

Potential rivals include Wizards of the Coast, Rackham/Fantasy Flight Games and Privateer Press.

I'm with Crube here. Only WotC could potentially bid for the deal. NLC doesn't care who makes the game as long as they get paid. And I bet neither Rackham with its financial problems nor Moongoose or PP could afford to pay that much.


I expect less people to jump on the Hobbit bandwagon than on the LotR people, but that is just because of the anecdotal evidence that I know mostly people who have only read LotR and hate hobbits ^^.
No, seriously, I think that the Hobbit has far less oomph than LotR and it should maybe seen as a cash infusion, but not as a saviour.

Bear in mind that both Hobbit and the other movie would be used as an excuse to reinvigorate interest in the LotR franchise. A director's cut DVD release is already confirmed and there were some murmurs about it hitting the big screens like Star Wars did a while back. While the potential interest would surely be smaller it still should be Big Bucks for Everyone Involved.