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elvinltl
08-12-2007, 15:04
Just curious how you all play 40k. Would you rather...

Taking a WarpSpider Exarch as an example.
1) Depend on your dice roll to kill off his units. This means getting a Spinneret Rifle and roll a 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound ap1 killing off 1 MEQ.

OR

2) Depend on his dice roll to fail his saves. This means getting dual DeathSpinner and roll 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound forcing him to take 4 Amour Saves.

Though option 2 has a chance of causing 1,2,3 or even 4 kills. At 3+ saves, 4 kills is impossible... 3 kills is highly unlikely... 2 kills is unusual... 1 kill is uncommon.

Option 1, however, almost guarentee a kill. 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound almost always kill. In fact, i realised my Exarch only failed to kill 1/9 times in 2 games with spinneret rifle.

Which style suit you more? Would you rather force him to roll more saves or kill him outright bypassing his amour saves? Which is more effective?
IMO, i prefer the 1st option because the risk is lower but return is also lower.

This could also be a case of Massed Shots VS Quality Shots.

catbarf
08-12-2007, 15:25
I take whichever will do more damage. I couldn't care less about where the damage comes from.

tuebor
08-12-2007, 15:30
There is a time and place for both. With my Guard I'm of the And They Shall Know Far Too Many Armour Saves school of thought, mainly because a larger amount of dice will bring me closer to the average of 50% hitting. I simply can't rely on my BS3 Guardsmen to make that crucial lascannon shot to kill the SM Commander who had his squad shot out from under him.

Of course, it doesn't always work. Extremely large gribblies like Hive Tyrants and Carnifexes don't really care much about how many heavy bolter rounds you put into them. There's also the all too common scenario when the SM Bike chaplain shrugs off 80 lasgun shots, 40 heavy bolter rounds and several plasma shots completely unharmed and then commences the slaughter of my poor, poor Guardsmen.

susu.exp
08-12-2007, 16:09
Option 1 has a 69% chance of killing an MEQ. Option 2 has a 65% chance of killing at least one MEQ. Id pick the second option, a roughly 1 in 5 chance of taking out 2 or more marines pays off the 4% higher probability of killing none IMHO.
Id say that MEQs are the point where both choices work similarly well. If youre facing better saves (Termies, Broadsides), the Spinneret is better, anything without power armour is better dealt with by the Deathspinner. And if youre facing 2+ saves, thats not the Job of the Warp Spiders, but of Fire Dragons.

WLBjork
08-12-2007, 17:20
Though option 2 has a chance of causing 1,2,3 or even 4 kills. At 3+ saves, 4 kills is impossible... 3 kills is highly unlikely... 2 kills is unusual... 1 kill is uncommon.

It's not that bad a chance. I make it a 23% chance of killing all 4 marines. Far, far from "impossible".

There's less chance of killing 1 Marine with 4 lasgun shots!

Preston
08-12-2007, 18:01
probability of hitting all shots 5/6^4 =.05
Probability of making all wounds (see above) .05
Probability of failing all saves 1/3^4 = .000000019

Probability of all 3 = (.05 ^ 2) * .000000019 = .0000000000475

If I'm doing my math right, and I'm remembering what I learned in stats right. :)

probability of not killing any (1/6^4)(1/6^4)(2/3^4)=.0000000118

The_Dragon_Rising
08-12-2007, 18:09
Dual Spinners, if they are in cover the spinneret is worse, the spinneret is worse against GEQ and GEQ are more common than TEQ and MEQ near me.

==Me==
08-12-2007, 18:23
Well, the Exarch is in a unit of Warp Spiders, who all have death spinners. All those high S, high AP shots are best complimented by more of the same I==M==HO. Dual deathspinners are slightly less effective at killing MEQs, but with 14 or so shots backing them up they can cause serious problems. And it gets even better against GEQs or worse. Warp spiders aren't meant to snipe off MEQs, that's what Fire Dragons do. Spiders dish out tons of S6 shots to hurt infantry and light vehicles, with crazy speed.

Vaktathi
08-12-2007, 19:01
On average, the 4 shots from the Dual Death spinner will kill more MEQ's than the single Spinneret rifle.

Personally, I would prefer the dual death spinners for pretty any role that a Warp Spider would be performing. If its to take out enemy armor, the spinneret has a chance of penetrating, but the DDS with its 4 shots is more likely to cause damage overall. Against any MEQ or lower infantry, the DDS is far more likely to kill more models. Against Terminators with their invul saves, the DDS and Spinneret should be roughly equal, against a 2+ save with no invul the Spinneret would be better, but there arent many units with a 2+ save with no invul (carni's and broadsides are the only ones that come to mind).

susu.exp
08-12-2007, 20:06
probability of not killing any (1/6^4)(1/6^4)(2/3^4)=.0000000118

Not Quite correct. This would be true if you did only not kill a model if you failed both your to hit AND your to wound roll AND the opponent did his save, when any of these were enough. Its actually [1-(5/6*5/6*1/3)]^4.
Giving 0.3488...

DartzIRL
08-12-2007, 20:35
The value of massed fire is apparent to any Imperial Guard player. I would tend to take the extra shots over the single guaranteed kill. Against most, the extra shots will usually see you good.

6 lasgun shots to kill a Space Marine, say would be normal. Half of them hit, a third of them wound, and he'll save another half or so...giving one wound caused..more or less.

But, against other armies, say other guard, or dark eldar, with lower saves and toughness, or horde armies like orks/ Tyranids, you'll do better with the extra shots, always. As you're not really able to change a model in between battles, you'll have to go with a balnced, not marines only approache.

MEQ (Crap, even I'm doing it) built armies are good against space marines, and nothing else. There is no Marine equivelant, only Space Marines

The_Patriot
08-12-2007, 20:43
Not Quite correct. This would be true if you did only not kill a model if you failed both your to hit AND your to wound roll AND the opponent did his save, when any of these were enough. Its actually [1-(5/6*5/6*1/3)]^4.
Giving 0.3488...

Not to be a smart alack but I'm curious if your can answer these questions. Are you accounting for the shape and design of the die? Are you also accounting for humidity, barometric pressure, and other atmospheric conditions? Are you accounting for the fact that the table that the guy is rolling on isn't a flat level plane? Are you accounting for the floor not being level? All of those factors should be considered when applying mathhammer. ;)

Vaktathi
08-12-2007, 20:52
6 lasgun shots to kill a Space Marine, say would be normal. Half of them hit, a third of them wound, and he'll save another half or so...giving one wound caused..more or less.


actually in that case, its about 18 lasgun/hellgun shots to average one marine dead. Half hit giving you 9 hits, 1 in 3 wound giving you 3 wounds, two in three save giving you one dead.

Man flashlights suck :cries:


Not to be a smart alack but I'm curious if your can answer these questions. Are you accounting for the shape and design of the die? Are you also accounting for humidity, barometric pressure, and other atmospheric conditions? Are you accounting for the fact that the table that the guy is rolling on isn't a flat level plane? Are you accounting for the floor not being level? All of those factors should be considered when applying mathhammer. There's really no way to accuratley account for that mathematically, and if you were looking at them from a statistical standpoint, would be combined into some sort of error term. On the whole however, if you have a Fair die, then they shouldn't matter. If the dice are fair, and rolled in a random manner every time, then the existing conditions will cancel out (as in, they will have the same chance of effecting every dice roll no matter the result and can thus be ignored)

DartzIRL
08-12-2007, 20:58
actually in that case, its about 18 lasgun/hellgun shots to average one marine dead. Half hit giving you 9 hits, 1 in 3 wound giving you 3 wounds, two in three save giving you one dead.

Man flashlights suck :cries:

6-18 close enough :P ... Once killed a three wound Marine Commander with Three shots, so, its all statistical bumpf. Statistically though, the more shots you bung at an enemy, the more likely you are to kill a bunch more of them.

One lascannon will kill a Marine. Eighteen Lasguns,,can kill several more than statistics predict, and usually do.

The_Patriot
08-12-2007, 21:03
There's really no way to accuratley account for that mathematically, and if you were looking at them from a statistical standpoint, would be combined into some sort of error term. On the whole however, if you have a Fair die, then they shouldn't matter. If the dice are fair, and rolled in a random manner every time, then the existing conditions will cancel out (as in, they will have the same chance of effecting every dice roll no matter the result and can thus be ignored)

So that means that statistically mathhammer is completely inaccurate. Not all die are created equal as evidence by their construction which affects how they roll. Atmospheric, table, and floor conditions affect the die through air resistance, angle of the table, and angle of the floor to produce more spins on the roll or less spins. The only fair die made, backed by scientific proof, is a casino die and they're very expensive. Even then the casino die is subject to atmospheric, table, and floor conditions.

Vaktathi
08-12-2007, 21:05
6-18 close enough :P ... Once killed a three wound Marine Commander with Three shots, so, its all statistical bumpf. Statistically though, the more shots you bung at an enemy, the more likely you are to kill a bunch more of them.

One lascannon will kill a Marine. Eighteen Lasguns,,can kill several more than statistics predict, and usually do.

entirely true on all counts, however you can also whiff with all of them as well (which happens to me far more than one would think possible, my lasguns/hellguns can't kill anything except Harlies :()


So that means that statistically mathhammer is completely inaccurate. Not all die are created equal as evidence by their construction affects how they roll. Atmospheric, table, and floor conditions affect the die through air resistance, angle of the table, and angle of the floor to produce more spins on the roll or less spins. The only fair die made, backed by scientific proof, is a casino die and they're very expensive.

True, when dealing with a non-fair die, then the math becomes less accurate (although it does NOT become irrelevant).

However, how often the die spins or rolls is irrelevant if the die is fair and rolled in a manner that would assure neither party an unfair advantage. e.g. as long as you pick up the dice, shake them a couple times and toss them without attempting to influence the roll by how you throw, you are going to get just as much random chance as if you shake them for an hour and they spin 18 times in the air when you throw them and roll 36 revolutions after landing.

As long as the external forces on the die are constant once they leave the hands of the dice thrower, then it doesn't matter as they would act equally on every result of the die assuming fair dice. While non-casino dice do tend to have more tendencies towards once result or another, they should still be somewhat close to the average with a slightly larger error, the mathematical averages don't just completely fly out the window.

DartzIRL
08-12-2007, 21:09
Yup... Had that happen too. Usually happens consistantly when it does too. You'll either miss alot, or kill alot, and not much in between.

The_Patriot
08-12-2007, 21:18
True, when dealing with a non-fair die, then the math becomes less accurate (although it does NOT become irrelevant).

However, how often the die spins or rolls is irrelevant if the die is fair and rolled in a manner that would assure neither party an unfair advantage. e.g. as long as you pick up the dice, shake them a couple times and toss them without attempting to influence the roll by how you throw, you are going to get just as much random chance as if you shake them for an hour and they spin 18 times in the air when you throw them and roll 36 revolutions after landing.

As long as the external forces on the die are constant once they leave the hands of the dice thrower, then it doesn't matter as they would act equally on every result of the die assuming fair dice. While non-casino dice do tend to have more tendencies towards once result or another, they should still be somewhat close to the average with a slightly larger error, the mathematical averages don't just completely fly out the window.

At which point it does become irrelevant.

You base your entire conclusion upon fair dice which means casino dice while ignoring atmospheric, table, floor, and throw conditions. Not very many people use casino dice to play 40k. You're also not accounting for the angle of the throw and how the dice react to the uneven playing surface as well as if the dice were thrown uphill or downhill due to the floor being uneven. Each of those factors play a major role (no pun intended) in the die roll. It will determine if a die will hit x number more frequently over y number which skews the statistics for the dice.

Vaktathi
08-12-2007, 21:32
At which point it does become irrelevant.

You base your entire conclusion upon fair dice which means casino dice. Not very many people use casino dice to play 40k. You're also not accounting for the angle of the throw and how the dice react to the uneven playing surface as well as if the dice were thrown uphill or downhill due to the floor being uneven. Each of those factors play a major role (no pun intended) in the die roll. It will determine if a die will hit x number more frequently over y number which skews the statistics for the dice.

If the angle of the throw and the playing surface is constant, it shouldn't matter. Yes they will influence the result, but this influence should be the same for every possible result. Assuming a 1 is the bottom of a dice, 6 the top, 5 the front, 2 the back, 3 the left side and 4 the right, then if the surface would tend to roll the dice to the right by two results (e.g. it lands with a 6 on top but rolls two over resulting in a 1) then this should hold on every result, in which case it gets averaged out and is irrelevant.

As long as as there is no attempt to influence the dice, then these factors should act equally on any particular result. The surface one rolls on and the air pressure and whatever the heck else you want to throw in won't change the averages as long as they act equally on every result. Throwing dice on cardboard or throwing them on feathers shouldn't result in more 2's than 4's so long as the dice are rolled in a consistent manner unless you have a dynamically shifting surface that is able to take advantage of the minute differences in the dice balance for every roll and influence them in that manner.

If you start talking about analyzing individual dice rolls, then yes the mathhammer goes out the window because its not meant to function at that level, but its meant to give an overall understanding of how something should work on average, which when you roll 10,000 dice over the course of a couple dozen games, should bear out.

And yes, I already addressed the issue of Casino die (although I know people who do play with them), but even with something like Chessex dice, which tend to roll more of one result than another, it shouldn't be an overwhelming difference that would grossly upset the averages. instead of a 16.66% chance for every result, it may give a 20% chance to one and 16% chance to the others, which can be accounted for. This does tend to skew the math, but shouldn't make it completly unusable. It will simply shift the trend slightly unless the dice are HUGELY imbalanced, in which case they probably aren't the best dice to be playing with anyway.

EDIT: as this is now completely off topic, I'll stop posting on this particular topic unless a new thread is opened.

The_Patriot
08-12-2007, 21:37
If the angle of the throw and the playing surface is constant, it shouldn't matter. Yes they will influence the result, but this influence should be the same for every possible result. Assuming a 1 is the bottom of a dice, 6 the top, 5 the front, 2 the back, 3 the left side and 4 the right, then if the surface would tend to roll the dice to the right by two results (e.g. it lands with a 6 on top but rolls two over resulting in a 1) then this should hold on every result, in which case it gets averaged out and is irrelevant.

As long as as there is no attempt to influence the dice, then these factors should act equally on any particular result. The surface one rolls on and the air pressure and whatever the heck else you want to throw in won't change the averages as long as they act equally on every result. Throwing dice on cardboard or throwing them on feathers shouldn't result in more 2's than 4's so long as the dice are rolled in a consistent manner unless you have a dynamically shifting surface that is able to take advantage of the minute differences in the dice balance for every roll and influence them in that manner.

If you start talking about analyzing individual dice rolls, then yes the mathhammer goes out the window because its not meant to function at that level, but its meant to give an overall understanding of how something should work on average, which when you roll 10,000 dice over the course of a couple dozen games, should bear out.

And yes, I already addressed the issue of Casino die (although I know people who do play with them), but even with something like Chessex dice, which tend to roll more of one result than another, it shouldn't be an overwhelming difference that would grossly upset the averages. instead of a 16.66% chance for every result, it may give a 20% chance to one and 16% chance to the others, which can be accounted for. This does tend to skew the math, but shouldn't make it completly unusable. It will simply shift the trend slightly unless the dice are HUGELY imbalanced, in which case they probably aren't the best dice to be playing with anyway.

To whit, I've pointed out that the dice are not constant and neither are the conditions. Change anything in the equation and the statistics go out the window. Are you going to be rolling in the exact same spot on the table? Are you going to be throwing the dice at the exact same angle? Are you going to be facing the same direction every time you throw the dice? The answer is no to all of them so the conditions of every die roll changes which in turn throws the mean average off.

susu.exp
08-12-2007, 21:58
Not to be a smart alack but I'm curious if your can answer these questions. Are you accounting for the shape and design of the die? Are you also accounting for humidity, barometric pressure, and other atmospheric conditions? Are you accounting for the fact that the table that the guy is rolling on isn't a flat level plane? Are you accounting for the floor not being level? All of those factors should be considered when applying mathhammer. ;)

Hey, Im no great fan of mathhammer in its usual state (though I still have the article I wrote for Firebase 3 on my HD, which was deemed too technical). But I did take courses in probability theory for a while and always like to lecture a bit. Understanding statistics aint something to scroff at in this day and age and if people can get into it, because it will tell them something about their Eldar, Im not going to shy away from using that example.
0.0000000118 and 0.388 is quite a big error. Im still looking for other math geeks to do some kind of "probability theory 101 with examples from GW games", close combat as a markovian process, etc.

Cry of the Wind
08-12-2007, 22:03
elvinltl, to answer your question, I'd go with massed shots more often than not. If anything it complements the massed shots of the squad better and keeps the rate of fire high in the event of causlties. As for who rolls the dice...don't think it really matters as long as his models die, after all you could roll his armour saves for him and it wouldn't change anything.

The_Patriot, what are you going on about here. Sure mathammer won't be 100% accurate because of all the factors out there. It never claims to tell you when you're going to roll a pair of 6's or whatever, it only tells you the chances of rolling them. Vaktathi made some good points there and your reaction is just "Na na na na I can't hear you, math is broken and doesn't work. na na na na na". Sure the average is off but it is going to be so off as to be useless. Unless once again I'm going to suggest that your make all your troops have Ld3 and see what happens (since you're saying there is no statistical difference of success for that over Ld8 or whatever).

The_Patriot
08-12-2007, 22:13
The_Patriot, what are you going on about here. Sure mathammer won't be 100% accurate because of all the factors out there. It never claims to tell you when you're going to roll a pair of 6's or whatever, it only tells you the chances of rolling them. Vaktathi made some good points there and your reaction is just "Na na na na I can't hear you, math is broken and doesn't work. na na na na na". Sure the average is off but it is going to be so off as to be useless. Unless once again I'm going to suggest that your make all your troops have Ld3 and see what happens (since you're saying there is no statistical difference of success for that over Ld8 or whatever).

Actually, it was Vaktathi that plugged his ears and went, "Na na na I can't hear you." My point is simple, "Mathhammer is irrelevant when it comes to actual playing of the game." To suggest that given x will result in y due to z is unrealistic since you are not accounting for all of the variables. Mathhammer fails the moment reality hits since it relies upon perfect conditions to make the results happen as they say it will happen. Case in point, people say never use Battle Sisters for close combat because they will lose big time due to x, y, and z mathhammer reasons. In the real world, my Battle Sisters are quite durable and take tit for tat against close combat troops.

Bunnahabhain
08-12-2007, 22:35
The Patriot:
Try http://warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65531

Also try checking your dice. Write down all the rolls you get in a battle, and see what distribution you get.

I much prefer rolling lots of dice to rolling a few dice with a high probability of success.

The large number of dice are more likely to come in near a normal result, and are often more adaptable. I'm a guard player, so the prospect of any one unit having a high probability of sucess is rare...

Unplugged
08-12-2007, 22:45
My point is simple, "Mathhammer is irrelevant when it comes to actual playing of the game." To suggest that given x will result in y due to z is unrealistic since you are not accounting for all of the variables.

You don't need to. The thing is - unless nobody tries to cheat - that there are lots of different factors that all will have a huge impact on the result of the roll - but nobody of the players knows them, and nobody knows how they change the roll. So even if the dice are not perfectly fair, and they don't roll very far and bounce along the surface and whatnot, as far as the players are concerned, the roll is still random. You can still assign reasonable probabilities (1/6 per side is still close enough, as experience shows) to the outcomes and calculate the odds of certain results. Whether the rolls are the results of actual random events or just pseudo-random events that nobody can predict is irrelevant for all practical purpose.

susu.exp
08-12-2007, 23:01
Actually, it was Vaktathi that plugged his ears and went, "Na na na I can't hear you." My point is simple, "Mathhammer is irrelevant when it comes to actual playing of the game." To suggest that given x will result in y due to z is unrealistic since you are not accounting for all of the variables. Mathhammer fails the moment reality hits since it relies upon perfect conditions to make the results happen as they say it will happen. Case in point, people say never use Battle Sisters for close combat because they will lose big time due to x, y, and z mathhammer reasons. In the real world, my Battle Sisters are quite durable and take tit for tat against close combat troops.

Well, a lot of people say things that are incorrect, because they use the math incorrectly. If somebody tells me theres almost no chance of not killing a single MEQ with that Warp spider (5 in 10 million) and the actual chance is 0.388 (4 out of 10), thats patently wrong. Im pretty sure most people who kit their Exarch out with the twins and kill nothing.
However, the way I use mathhammer is absolutely relevant, when I play games: I use it to figure out, when a surprise move may work. How many firewarriors do I need if I want to wipe out that unit of Berzerkers in Close combat with better than even odds? And I personally dont see why Sisters are supposed to be bad in CC. Give me an actual example of one of those "unit x will pwn them" statements and Im pretty sure they are based on an incorrect use of probability theory. Because a 3+ save does a lot in CC, as do various acts of faith.
A mimimum unit of basic sisters versus a basic blood angels combat squad gives big probabilities to the following results (if the sisters charge):
23% no kills on either side
20% one dead marine, no dead sisters
17% one dead sister, no dead marines
13% one of each
8% 2 marines, one sister
5% 2 sisters, 1 marine
All in all, the sisters will lose less models than the marines in 39.7% of cases, marines come out on top modelwise in 23.8% of cases and in 37% of cases each armies lose equal amounts of models.

This holds pretty much irrespective of unit sizes: as long as youre taking on a unit that costs as much as your sister unit, charging in will give you an advantage in the first round of combat. With Seraphim you do slightly worse: 39.9% the sisters kill more marines, but the marines do better at 25%. And considering that a Seraphim matches the cost of a tactical, charging with basic sisters is better.

catbarf
09-12-2007, 00:09
Patriot is right. Math means nothing. All those people who win money at casinos through probability obviously don't exist.

1 Lasgun is better than 1 Lascannon at killing marines. Prove me wrong without using math. Oh, and besides, it doesn't matter- for all you know, other variables like how I roll dice or what the board is like may come into effect to make lasguns better.

You're making the rather common but blatant mistake of assuming that math tells you exactly what will happen. It doesn't. But math tells me that not only is a lascannon better than a lasgun under perfect conditions, but that in imperfect conditions the lascannon will usually do better. In other words, it's usually imperfect in the lascannon's favor.

Math doesn't tell you what will happen. It tells you what the results tend towards. If the math says 18 kills when x shoots z, then I've got it on good authority that I'll get around 15-21 kills when x shoots z. I'm also more likely to get 18 kills than 15. That's it. Math doesn't play the game for you, but it does help.

Rikens
09-12-2007, 00:42
susu.exp: Any chance of you giving a primer clinic on probability theory in the Tactics or Random Musings fora?

elvinltl
09-12-2007, 01:58
Please also note that MathHammer cease to function properly when the number of shots decreases.
For example someone pointed out a Single Spinneret rifle shot has only 65% of killing a MEQ which is HIGHLY UNTRUE in practice.
2+ to hit and 2+ to wound is hardly ever unkillable. If you do not believe try rolling 10 dices all 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound and you will notice they always managed a kill 80-90% of the time.

However, as the number of shots increases, MathHammer becomes more accurate.

I know massed shots and quality shots both have their own prowess... My army itself dedicate 50% to massed shots and another 50% to quality shots.

MadJackMcJack
09-12-2007, 02:18
I prefer to make the rolls. That way, it's easier to cheat. :D

Seriously though, I play Orks, so I don't get the choice of quality over quantity.

Cry of the Wind
09-12-2007, 03:07
My point is simple, "Mathhammer is irrelevant when it comes to actual playing of the game."

No it isn't though. You may be misusing mathammer and thinking it is doing something which it isn't (that being it predicting the rolls you are about to make). What it is telling you is what your chances of doing something are. My guardsmen have a 50/50 chance at hitting the target. Some games they might never miss or will never hit the target. That doesn't mean that they didn't have a 50/50 chance of making each shot.

Mathammer is relevant otherwise things like BS or Ld would have no point value as they are meaningless stats. The difference between BS3 and BS4 is clear to you I'm sure. The only thing making them different is mathammer so you're not going to be able to tell me it dosen't matter.

catbarf
09-12-2007, 03:35
Please also note that MathHammer cease to function properly when the number of shots decreases.
For example someone pointed out a Single Spinneret rifle shot has only 65% of killing a MEQ which is HIGHLY UNTRUE in practice.
2+ to hit and 2+ to wound is hardly ever unkillable. If you do not believe try rolling 10 dices all 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound and you will notice they always managed a kill 80-90% of the time.

However, as the number of shots increases, MathHammer becomes more accurate.

I know massed shots and quality shots both have their own prowess... My army itself dedicate 50% to massed shots and another 50% to quality shots.

Consider 36 dice. With a 2+ to hit, 5/6 of them hit. So that's 30 hits. Now 5/6 of them wound. So that's 25 wounds. 25/36 = .69. That's a 69% chance. So the math is completely correct.

Preston
09-12-2007, 06:41
whoa, what did I start :P

I was just trying to practice my stats and keep that stuff in my head :P

kris.sherriff
09-12-2007, 06:56
For once I find myself in agreement with what The_Patriot is trying to say (Or what I hope The_Patriot is trying to say) In that although math-hammer is a useful tool I would never base my whole army selection on running the numbers as it sucks the life out of the game. We all know what should happen when we roll dice in a certain situation but just because something has a good chance of happening does not mean it is going to happen.

What I do not agree with is the way in which The_Patriot goes about trying to make his points. The use of blanket I am right and you are wrong statements does not win many friends on Internet forums (nor in real life) and is not a conductive way of having a discussion. All that happens is that yet another thread is derailed through pigheadedness.

So back on topic.

I would very much rather make my opponent roll more dice. I am a gambler at heart and that chance of a game changing/winning moment is just too good to pass up.
Saying that I would not completely ignore the chance of something happening and having a few AP1 weapons is never a bad thing. So I would tend to use a mixture of both really but with a preference to more dice.

Kris

Cry of the Wind
09-12-2007, 08:18
In that although math-hammer is a useful tool I would never base my whole army selection on running the numbers as it sucks the life out of the game.

To be fair no one is saying that you should base your army off of mathammer. The thing is though, if you're going to ask for a comparison of two weapon options and ask which is better for kill a MEQ the answer is going to be in math. Just because I make a selection for fluff reasons doesn't mean I don't want to know how effective that weapon will be for a given task. By using mathammer I can figure out what a weapon will be good for without needing to play a bunch of games.

Sucking the fun out of the game for you might be different for someone else too. Building a powerful list and using it to best effect is a lot of fun as well as designing a fluff army. Even in building a powerful list I doubt there are many people who would make every choice based only on math. This is because there are so many variables in what enemy you might be fighting and what terrain they might be in that will change what the best thing to have is.

This goes back to the original topic in that there may be times when the spinneret will be the better choice and it is up to the army builder to know what situation the unit will likely be used in and what it will have to face to determine when that is. Mathammer alone will not choose the best gear but experince combined with mathammer will be much better than using one alone.

Vaktathi
09-12-2007, 08:45
Actually, it was Vaktathi that plugged his ears and went, "Na na na I can't hear you." Wow, what a wonderful way to be mature, lets attack a poster who removed himself from the discussion for it being off topic and completely miss the point that was made by that poster! That was totally called for :rolleyes:


My point is simple, "Mathhammer is irrelevant when it comes to actual playing of the game." To suggest that given x will result in y due to z is unrealistic since you are not accounting for all of the variables. Mathhammer fails the moment reality hits since it relies upon perfect conditions to make the results happen as they say it will happen. Of course you can't accurately predict every individual roll, nowhere did I try and state as such, all I said was that any external factors like you mentioned can typically be safely ignored as they act equally on every possible result. Simply rolling on a different surface isn't going to prefer one result over another. If I roll 3 dice on a flat smooth surface, and 6 on the carpet, they should all still have the same random factor, the biases on each surface will effect each possible result to the same effect, thus canceling out.

The only thing that should introduce an actual bias into the dice rolls is a non-fair die. Everything else can be canceled out as it will effect every possible result to the exact same extent. Even with a stilted die, if you know its bias, you can take this into account and adjust.



Case in point, people say never use Battle Sisters for close combat because they will lose big time due to x, y, and z mathhammer reasons. That's because they aren't dedicated assault units. On average they are much better at shooting unless assaulting something alot weaker than them.

I think that using mathhammer to predict your odds of being successful in CC with Sisters is pretty standard, even if its unconcious. I mean, you arent going to assault an equally strong Chaos marine squad with Sisters are you? Between a 10man Chaos marine squad with a powerweapon and a 10man sisters squad with a power weapon, on average the Chaos marines will kill outkill the Sisters by nearly 4 to 1 on average. That's some pretty powerful averages against one there. Even with Invul saves, this ratio is only reduced to about 3 for 1. Personally, I've found this to be a pretty consistent average in my games. With those averages facing you, it would probably tell you that its not a brilliant idea, and that rapid firing with Divine Guidance will probably result in a better outcome. Hell even a against a 10man Seraphim squad with a powerweapon that got the charge, that Chaos Marine squad will still outkill them by 30%. (2.83 dead CSM's versus 4 dead Seraphim on average).

Is there a chance for them to win if they decide to charge? Yes. Of course. Will this happen often? No. That's what the math tells you, not the individual rolls, its not meant to do so and won't work in such a manner.

On the other hand, Charging them into an equally strong IG squad would probably result in victory, although shooting them would probably be more effective.

It is these things that the math tells you. Its going to tell your your average chances.

If the math didn't hold out on average, the game wouldn't work, its as simple as that. If the math had no purpose in an actual game, there would be no point to different stat values because it wouldn't make a difference.


In the real world, my Battle Sisters are quite durable and take tit for tat against close combat troops. Funny, every time I've beaten a sisters army recently, its been by slamming Chaos marines into them and holding them in Close Combat where I can adjust the odds further in my favor than I would have in a shooting war.

The_Patriot
09-12-2007, 09:11
Wow, what a wonderful way to be mature, lets attack a poster who removed himself from the discussion for it being off topic and completely miss the point that was made by that poster! That was totally called for :rolleyes:

Oh yes, I called you a nasty name that truly violates the rules of Warseer. :rolleyes:


Of course you can't accurately predict every individual roll, nowhere did I try and state as such, all I said was that any external factors like you mentioned can typically be safely ignored as they act equally on every possible result. Simply rolling on a different surface isn't going to prefer one result over another. If I roll 3 dice on a flat smooth surface, and 6 on the carpet, they should all still have the same random factor, the biases on each surface will effect each possible result to the same effect, thus canceling out.

I noticed that you rigged your scenario by doubling the amount of dice rolled on the carpet versus the ones on the absolutely glass smooth surface. :rolleyes: Again no, the variables do not cancel out since it is nigh impossible to duplicate the rolls in the exact same method used. Only in a perfect world would it be canceled out. /looks outside the window Nope, I don't see a perfect world where every gaming table is absolutely level, perfect atmospheric pressure, the floor is absolutely level, the angle of the throw, velocity of the dice hitting the table, and the table has an absolutely glassy smooth surface. Thus, mathhammer works only in a perfect world and fails when reality hits it.


The only thing that should introduce an actual bias into the dice rolls is a non-fair die. Everything else can be canceled out as it will effect every possible result to the exact same extent. Even with a stilted die, if you know its bias, you can take this into account and adjust.

That's according to your perfect world theory which from looking outside I can tell that there is no such thing as a perfect world.


That's because they aren't dedicated assault units. On average they are much better at shooting unless assaulting something alot weaker than them.

I think that using mathhammer to predict your odds of being successful in CC with Sisters is pretty standard, even if its unconcious. I mean, you arent going to assault an equally strong Chaos marine squad with Sisters are you? Between a 10man Chaos marine squad with a powerweapon and a 10man sisters squad with a power weapon, on average the Chaos marines will kill outkill the Sisters by nearly 4 to 1 on average. That's some pretty powerful averages against one there. Even with Invul saves, this ratio is only reduced to about 3 for 1. Personally, I've found this to be a pretty consistent average in my games. With those averages facing you, it would probably tell you that its not a brilliant idea, and that rapid firing with Divine Guidance will probably result in a better outcome. Hell even a against a 10man Seraphim squad with a powerweapon that got the charge, that Chaos Marine squad will still outkill them by 30%. (2.83 dead CSM's versus 4 dead Seraphim on average).

Is there a chance for them to win if they decide to charge? Yes. Of course. Will this happen often? No. That's what the math tells you, not the individual rolls, its not meant to do so and won't work in such a manner.

On the other hand, Charging them into an equally strong IG squad would probably result in victory, although shooting them would probably be more effective.

It is these things that the math tells you. Its going to tell your your average chances.

Care to explain why whenever my Battle Sisters get charged by Plague Marines that I kill one Plague Marine and lose one Sister in every close combat round? You can't since reality shows that mathhammer fails due to reality being what it is.

Care to explain why my Seraphim are uber killers in close combat when they initiate or receive a charge? In every single game I've played my Seraphim have annihilated any unit they've fought. I point to my previous answer.

So far Mathhammer fails when it comes to my games.


If the math didn't hold out on average, the game wouldn't work, its as simple as that. If the math had no purpose in an actual game, there would be no point to different stat values because it wouldn't make a difference.

Nice strawman you have there. Let me know when you can actually attack the position I put forth.

The game works because there is no real average in the real world. The mean average changes from day to day so it's impossible to predict with absolute certainty that you will get x result due to y gear. The best you can do with Mathhammer is guess this is the probable thing that can happen without any accuracy. You tout Mathhammer as being absolutely perfect and accurate when it's not due to the lack of inclusion of the variables I pointed out. Until you can account for those variables then Mathhammer is neither accurate nor perfect.


Funny, every time I've beaten a sisters army recently, its been by slamming Chaos marines into them and holding them in Close Combat where I can adjust the odds further in my favor than I would have in a shooting war.

That's in your experience which means that it's a subjective experience and has no bearing upon the objective truth concerning Mathhammer.

Drogmir
09-12-2007, 09:24
Hmmmm

I for one respect the law of averages but I can see both people's points.

I would generally go for More lower quality shots to the OP since the law of averages would dictate "slightly" better results if you say IG fighting a MEQ

but so many variables go into the law that no one can really perfect it.

kris.sherriff
09-12-2007, 10:45
To be fair no one is saying that you should base your army off of mathammer. The thing is though, if you're going to ask for a comparison of two weapon options and ask which is better for kill a MEQ the answer is going to be in math. Just because I make a selection for fluff reasons doesn't mean I don't want to know how effective that weapon will be for a given task. By using mathammer I can figure out what a weapon will be good for without needing to play a bunch of games.

Sucking the fun out of the game for you might be different for someone else too. Building a powerful list and using it to best effect is a lot of fun as well as designing a fluff army. Even in building a powerful list I doubt there are many people who would make every choice based only on math. This is because there are so many variables in what enemy you might be fighting and what terrain they might be in that will change what the best thing to have is.

This goes back to the original topic in that there may be times when the spinneret will be the better choice and it is up to the army builder to know what situation the unit will likely be used in and what it will have to face to determine when that is. Mathammer alone will not choose the best gear but experience combined with mathammer will be much better than using one alone.

Sorry I was not trying to say that it was being suggested that you should base your whole army composition on the math, I was simply saying that while I do consider the math when making a list I will often factor in the actual feel of an army or the level of play I am going to be gaming in etc.
I whole heartedly agree that in the case of the OP's question the maths is relevant but he also asked for peoples preferences.

My bad on 'the sucking the fun out of the hobbie' comment after all my Hobie could well be different from yours and it is a point that we would all do well to remember in these mathhammer debates.


Oh yes, I called you a nasty name that truly violates the rules of Warseer. :rolleyes:

No need to be rude to members of the community is there?



I noticed that you rigged your scenario by doubling the amount of dice rolled on the carpet versus the ones on the absolutely glass smooth surface. :rolleyes: Again no, the variables do not cancel out since it is nigh impossible to duplicate the rolls in the exact same method used. Only in a perfect world would it be canceled out. /looks outside the window Nope, I don't see a perfect world where every gaming table is absolutely level, perfect atmospheric pressure, the floor is absolutely level, the angle of the throw, velocity of the dice hitting the table, and the table has an absolutely glassy smooth surface. Thus, mathhammer works only in a perfect world and fails when reality hits it.

That's according to your perfect world theory which from looking outside I can tell that there is no such thing as a perfect world.

In a game with your sisters, assuming that there were two units an equal distance from you, that both represented the same threat to your force, the only difference between the two unit is that one of them is in cover and one is out of cover. You need to kill at east half of one of the units to get the VP for a win. Which one would you shoot at?
Before you answer how have you come to this conclusion?
Surly you have considered that one unit will have a cover save and thus a better chance of surviving.
This is not using math-hammer to predict what will happen but it is using it to make an informed decision on what course of action would most likely produce a favorable result.
What part of this process is affected by the factor you are trying to bring in to play?
If you were rolling the dice on a carpet instead of the table would that affect which target you chose?





Care to explain why whenever my Battle Sisters get charged by Plague Marines that I kill one Plague Marine and lose one Sister in every close combat round? You can't since reality shows that mathhammer fails due to reality being what it is.

Care to explain why my Seraphim are uber killers in close combat when they initiate or receive a charge? In every single game I've played my Seraphim have annihilated any unit they've fought. I point to my previous answer.

So far Mathhammer fails when it comes to my games.

I applaud your good luck as if this is actually true you are very lucky and nothing more. Equally there will be some one somewhere in the universe that every time there battle sisters get charged by a unit of guardsmen they all die every time. It is luck but fortunately it is all factored in to the math. Mathhammer has not failed in any of the cases you have presented.




Nice strawman you have there. Let me know when you can actually attack the position I put forth.

The game works because there is no real average in the real world. The mean average changes from day to day so it's impossible to predict with absolute certainty that you will get x result due to y gear. The best you can do with Mathhammer is guess this is the probable thing that can happen without any accuracy. You tout Mathhammer as being absolutely perfect and accurate when it's not due to the lack of inclusion of the variables I pointed out. Until you can account for those variables then Mathhammer is neither accurate nor perfect.

I can't understand why you are arguing this so strongly in this thread. Not one person has actually stated that Mathhammer is absolutely perfect.
What has happened is that the in the OP's post he asked what people preferred and why.
Most of the posts before somebody dragged the thread kicking and screaming off topic included peoples preferences and a reason for them.
In fact what did your first post in this thread actually have to do with the OP's post. Not once in any of your posts have you answered the OP's question of which you prefare. Don't you think it is a little rude to hijack someones thread and not even give a cursory mention to the poin raised in their post?


That's in your experience which means that it's a subjective experience and has no bearing upon the objective truth concerning Mathhammer.

I honestly can not believe you have finished your post with this statement.

"Care to explain why whenever my Battle Sisters get charged by Plague Marines that I kill one Plague Marine and lose one Sister in every close combat round? You can't since reality shows that mathhammer fails due to reality being what it is.

Care to explain why my Seraphim are uber killers in close combat when they initiate or receive a charge? In every single game I've played my Seraphim have annihilated any unit they've fought. I point to my previous answer.

So far Mathhammer fails when it comes to my games."

Surly everything in this statement is in your experience meaning its a subjective experience and has no bearing upon the objective truth concerning Mathhammer?:p

Vaktathi
09-12-2007, 11:17
Oh yes, I called you a nasty name that truly violates the rules of Warseer. :rolleyes: Regardless, was it warranted or did it add to the discussion? No. Did I previously address any of your posts in that manner? No. Does it make you look like childish? Yes.




I noticed that you rigged your scenario by doubling the amount of dice rolled on the carpet versus the ones on the absolutely glass smooth surface. :rolleyes:Again, you missed the point. It matters not how many are rolled on what surface! The number of dice were completely irrelevant in the example!

Each Surface effects each result to the same degree for every dice rolled on that surface. If a smooth surface would cause double the bounce but a carpet caused triple, its still irrelevant because they both effect every possible result to the same degree on that surface, and thus still have the same chance on one as they would on the other!


Again no, the variables do not cancel out since it is nigh impossible to duplicate the rolls in the exact same method used. Only in a perfect world would it be canceled out. /looks outside the window Nope, I don't see a perfect world where every gaming table is absolutely level, perfect atmospheric pressure, the floor is absolutely level, the angle of the throw, velocity of the dice hitting the table, and the table has an absolutely glassy smooth surface. Thus, mathhammer works only in a perfect world and fails when reality hits it.

How is the surface or velocity of the dice going to favor one number over another?

Throwing a dice with more velocity or on an angled surface or whatever is not going to give it a bias in favor of one number or another unless you're intentionally throwing it in such a way that it has only one axis of rotation instead of two (effectively cutting out two results). Under these circumstances, since no number is favored over another, any differences in throwing, surface level, etc are not going to matter. If I have the same chance of deviation on a roll of 5 as any other number, then nothing has been done to introduce a bias into the result of the dice towards one number or another.




That's according to your perfect world theory which from looking outside I can tell that there is no such thing as a perfect world. Then please provide something other than just "YOU ARE WRONG". Provide me with an example where a surface or something would result in a bias towards one result of a die roll over another!

Other than intentionally rolling the dice such that it has only one axis of rotation or stilted dice, how would the velocity, temperature or rolling surface change the number of 3's versus 5's or favor any one number over another?




Care to explain why whenever my Battle Sisters get charged by Plague Marines that I kill one Plague Marine and lose one Sister in every close combat round? You can't since reality shows that mathhammer fails due to reality being what it is. Besides that your sisters are apparently invincible and you are starting to sound like you are make stuff up to prove a point? If this is indeed true then I must salute your mighty rolling and the incompetent dice of your opponent but it still doesn't take away the value of the math in providing input for your decisions on the table.

It's there to give you the most common (statistically) outcome, the most likely outcome, it's not going to tell you exactly whats going to happen nor is it meant to. If it was, then 40k would play like a computer RTS where a unit inflicts X amount of damage with every hit and has Z HP etc...

a Plague marine will inflict 0.148 casualties on a Sisters squad with any particular attack. A Sister will inflict 0.0138 casualties on a Plague Marine with any particular attack. Thats over 10 for 1. Even with Hand of the Emperor thats about .28 casualties from the Sisters attacks for every 1 the Plague marines will inflict, or just under 4 for 1. If you are consitently tying plague marines that have double your number of attacks, higher toughness, and an extra save along blight grenades to remove extra charging attacks with sisters in CC then I'm taking you to Vegas.

If you are suggesting that just because such events do in fact occur that using the math to predict the average is useless in your decision to commit a unit to an action? If this is so then why bother differentiating units at all? Wouldn't all units simply be the same at everything then?

Are you confident in always beating such odds? Do you charge plague marines with your sisters confident that you will win or position them better for shooting without regard to possible enemy assaults in the next turn? I doubt that very much, rather I think you keep them at range and hit the Plague Marines with multiple units dumping bolter shots with Divine Guidance into them instead.

furthermore, just to clarify, beating the odds is not breaking the math, rather its an expression a minority result rather than a confirmation of the predicted outcome. The math will still give you the average chance of that outcome occuring and how often you should rely on a particular course of action on the table.


Care to explain why my Seraphim are uber killers in close combat when they initiate or receive a charge? In every single game I've played my Seraphim have annihilated any unit they've fought. I point to my previous answer.
And I'll point to my last answer for this one and add that just about every time I've had my CSM's, Raptors, or Terminators in CC with Seraphim, its been ugly for the Sisters.

also, given that 10 seraphim (assuming a Sister Superior with a powerweapon) charging 10 plague marines with a power weapon out in the open will on average result in .5 dead plague marines (remember Blight grenades), assuming one full casualty to the plague marines, they will inflict 2.77 casualties back at I3, or 2.11 assuming the Seraphim get off Spirit of the Martyr. You are talking 4 and 5 to one kill ratios there. On average the Plague Marines will win that combat, and this with the Seraphim getting the charge.

Or we can go with something less intense and say basic Chaos marines. assuming the same 10 Seraphim with a powerweapon charge 10 chaos marines in the open, the Seraphim will inflict 2.166 casualties on average and the Chaos Marines an average of 3 (since they are striking at the same time rather than at I3) or an average of 2.3333 assuming the Seraphim got off Spirit of the Martyr. On average the Chaos marines will still win that combat with the Seraphim still getting the charge.



Again, if you are consistently beating this by "annihilating" such units with your seraphim in CC (and not just making stuff up), then I'm taking you to Vegas. I sure as hell wouldn't rely on Seraphim defeating Chaos marines or god help you a truly dedicated heavy CC unit like Khorne Terminators or Genestealers in CC on a consistent basis.

Against Firewarriors, Guardsmen, gaunts, or even normal SM's or something like Ogryn? Sure, but against anything thats indentical in speed, skill, base attacks after equipment is factored in, and armor save but is tougher and stronger and equal in size? No thanks.



Nice strawman you have there. Let me know when you can actually attack the position I put forth. *facepalm*

Lets take a look at a unit statline.

WS7 BS2 S6 T4 I6 W2 A3 Ld10 Sv 4+/5+.
Equipped with a lascannon, heavy bolter, flamer, power weapon, Fleet

Take a look at that unit and tell me what you role you think it would be most effective in? How do you know? What basis do you use for this rationalization? Are you going to tell me that averages and math will not factor into this decision in any way? Its basic weapons give it multiple effective options, but does its statline give a heavy preference to one over the other in a mathematical setting?

How about this unit? Same drill
WS2 BS5 S3 T3 I1 W1 A1 Ld10 Sv4+/5+
Equipped with a lascannon, heavy bolter, flamer, power weapon, Slow and Purposeful.


The game works because there is no real average in the real world. The mean average changes from day to day so it's impossible to predict with absolute certainty that you will get x result due to y gear. So you are saying that because the real world is unpredictable, that a game with set values and unchanging methods for determining outcomes is not subject to mathematical analysis in any way for informing your decisions on what course of action a particular unit should take?


The best you can do with Mathhammer is guess this is the probable thing that can happen without any accuracy You can guess the average outcome, not the actual outcome. Of course its not going to be 100% accurate, its an AVERAGE. What it should give you is a general idea of how things will probably turn out, not how they WILL turn out.


You tout Mathhammer as being absolutely perfect and accurate when it's not due to the lack of inclusion of the variables I pointed out. Until you can account for those variables then Mathhammer is neither accurate nor perfect. Again, where have I said that the math alone is perfect and will predict every games outcome? I have not, I have merely said it will give you the average outcome for any particular interaction, which can then be weighed against other options to chose the one that gives the greatest chance of success. Almost all of those variables that you have mentioned will effect every possible result to the same degree (a rough rolling surface will not give you more 2's and fewer 5's than a smooth rolling surface for example) and thus can be ignored.




That's in your experience which means that it's a subjective experience and has no bearing upon the objective truth concerning Mathhammer. :wtf:Given your previous statements in your post this seems to invalidate about half of them.

I will go on to say that this is true no more so than your stories of your nigh unkillable CC monster sisters of battle and your statement applies just as much to your statements as it does to mine. If Chaos marines, were not on average, better in CC against sisters than sister were against Chaos Marines, why the difference in statline, equipment, points cost, etc...? On average, without seeing the dice rolls, can we be fairly confident in who is more likely to win a round of close combat between Chaos marines and Sisters? Between Genestealers and Guardsmen?

Wintermute
09-12-2007, 12:43
Can we please concentrate on the topic at hand and end the sniping and flaming, because if not I will close the thread and taken action against any and all members who ignore this warning.

Wintermute
The WarSeer Inquisition

catbarf
09-12-2007, 19:18
Back on topic, I think that in the absence of empirical data I'd go with more shots. If I rely on failed saves, then he could employ equipment to ensure that he doesn't fail saves. There's no way to prevent me from loosing a ton of shots.

Cry of the Wind
09-12-2007, 21:40
Back on topic, I think that in the absence of empirical data I'd go with more shots. If I rely on failed saves, then he could employ equipment to ensure that he doesn't fail saves. There's no way to prevent me from loosing a ton of shots.

There's the thing though, if he is using some way to ensure he doesn't fail the save then having Ap1 will stop him from taking the save (since given the mobility of Warp Spiders I'll assume you'll strike when best for you). I like more shots myself as well but with the spinneret you are removing the options the enemy has to defend himself with. I can fire round after round into a terminator and he could get lucky and pass all his saves. If I fire a single shot that skips his save then you don't have to worry about him being lucky since you're ignoring that step.

This is where gamer experince comes into play to determine the role a unit will have on the table. If you know you are going to be fighting a lot of good save targets it might be wise to use the spinneret while against swarms it is obviously better to use more shots. These ideas are simple but when applied across the entire army you need to have an idea of what each unit you field is going to be used for. Some armies might have a hard time against swarms so more shots being added will be more useful than a single powerful shot. So long story short what I'm trying to say is that you can't simply look at one weapon on its own without considering how it will fit into the entire army and where it will fit into your battle plan. Not very helpful right now but once a full army list is made it is easier to see when and where quality vs quantity of shots should be considered.

catbarf
09-12-2007, 22:00
True, you can remove his ability to get a save- but having more shots is more reliable in the sense that you know that it will never be circumvented. It's all down to personal preference really.

Rikens
09-12-2007, 22:04
I think there's something to be said for rolling three dice at 6 than one dice at 4+. Insofar as I can tell, and I'm pretty sure I'm wrong about this, the three dice have the same probability of hitting as the one dice. But the potential is 3x greater! I think that's why Ork shooting is so effective (was so effective, and now ludicrously so), because the designers just looked at the average hits rather than the whole curve.

marv335
09-12-2007, 22:09
I always prefer a high rate of fire to one powerful shot.
I find my devastators armed with heavy bolters kill far more marines than those armed with lascannons.
Fair enough, the ap2 shot and high strength make the kill a bit more certain, but if I hit and if I wound, 1/3 of the time the terminator will save anyway.

susu.exp
09-12-2007, 22:43
I think there's something to be said for rolling three dice at 6 than one dice at 4+. Insofar as I can tell, and I'm pretty sure I'm wrong about this, the three dice have the same probability of hitting as the one dice. But the potential is 3x greater! I think that's why Ork shooting is so effective (was so effective, and now ludicrously so), because the designers just looked at the average hits rather than the whole curve.

Well...
One die at 4+ has a 50% probability of sucess, while 3 dice at 6 have a
57.9% chance of no success and therefore a 42.1% chance of one or more successful rolls. It breaks down as: 34.7% chance of 1 sucessful roll, 6.9% chance of 2 and 0.5% of 3.
What this means is, you are more likely not to do any damage, but the ocassional multiple kills make up for it (in this case exactly, 42.1%+2*6.9%+0.5%*3=50%).

More dice result in bigger Standard-deviations though. Big bucket of low quality dice means less reliability.

D.B.
09-12-2007, 23:33
More dice result in bigger Standard-deviations though. Big bucket of low quality dice means less reliability. I'm pretty sure it's the other way round - lots of dice = more reliability. For example, if you have a single die, the odds of rolling a hit with BS3 is 0.5 - clearly, this can never happen, so I'd qualitatively put the reliability of that at 0 :). whereas roll 10 dice and you have a (small) chance of getting the expected value (ie 5 hits)

pwrgmrguard
09-12-2007, 23:53
I prefer 5 inch templates. They hit alot of stuff.

on one vs many i usually go with many b/c i have guard, and in their case, the double tap is more useful than a lascannon because of volume. If the number of shooting model is around ten, i say go with more powerful shots, make every one count, but when i have fifty guardsmen shooting, i don't need them to cound because i have so many more coming.

catbarf
10-12-2007, 00:25
I think there's something to be said for rolling three dice at 6 than one dice at 4+. Insofar as I can tell, and I'm pretty sure I'm wrong about this, the three dice have the same probability of hitting as the one dice. But the potential is 3x greater! I think that's why Ork shooting is so effective (was so effective, and now ludicrously so), because the designers just looked at the average hits rather than the whole curve.

With three dice, the chance is greater to get nothing at all, although the potential for getting more than one does make up for this.

By the way: Any sentence that uses 'designers' and 'average' in the same sentence makes me laugh (I'm not laughing at you, please don't be offended). GW staff have a noted tendency to have all kinds of things that are totally broken or completely useless, simply because they never look at the averages. Take the Empire Engineer in WHFB, for example.

susu.exp
10-12-2007, 00:54
I'm pretty sure it's the other way round - lots of dice = more reliability. For example, if you have a single die, the odds of rolling a hit with BS3 is 0.5 - clearly, this can never happen, so I'd qualitatively put the reliability of that at 0 :). whereas roll 10 dice and you have a (small) chance of getting the expected value (ie 5 hits)

Well, look at the attached graph. Ive taken the probabilities for rolling a number of dice, so that the mean stays the same, with different probabilities of success. So its 600 dice needing 6s, 300 dice needing 5+, 200 needing 4+, 150 needing 3+ and 120 needing 2+. As you can see the 2+ dice have the highest probability of hitting the mean, with close to 10% probability and that value decreases as we go to 3+, 4+ and so on.

Rolling a number of dice is representable by a Binominaldistribution, with an expected value for n dice and p as the probability
E = n*p
and the standard deviaion
SD= (n*p*(1-p))^0.5
Now normally as you increase n your SD relative to E goes down:
SD/E= [(1-p)/(n*p)]^0.5 = 1/n^0.5 * constant
But if you change p as well, so that E remains constant (which is what you do if you take 3 dice taking a 6 instead of one with a 4+) then this is not generally true.
1 die taking a 4+:
E= 1*0.5 = 0.5
SD= (1*0.5*0.5)^0.5 = 0.5
3 dice taking a 6:
E= 3*1/6 = 0.5
SD= (3*1/6*5/6)^0.5 = 0.64

For a more general view: since we want to keep E constant we write the SD without p (which is E/n):
SD= (n*E/n*(1-E/n))^0.5 = (E*(1-E/n))^0.5 = (E-E/n)^0.5
For events that are certain (E=n, since p=1) this means SD=0, while for n-> SD ->E^0.5

catbarf
10-12-2007, 01:08
D.B., multiple rolls is more reliable when they all have the same roll required for success. When you're trying to even it out like susu shows, it becomes less reliable as you have more dice.

elvinltl
10-12-2007, 02:48
Consider 36 dice. With a 2+ to hit, 5/6 of them hit. So that's 30 hits. Now 5/6 of them wound. So that's 25 wounds. 25/36 = .69. That's a 69% chance. So the math is completely correct.


I already said MathHammer becomes more and more accurate as the number of shots increases because it only explains the average chance of happening.
A single 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound ap1 produces near 90% chances of killing while Mathshammer proves otherwise 65%.

And though my A Levels is over (Bye Bye statistics), the probability of killing becomes more accurate as the sample size increases. Susu.exp has the solid prove.

Rikens
10-12-2007, 05:47
With three dice, the chance is greater to get nothing at all, although the potential for getting more than one does make up for this. Yeah, that's what I said. Didn't I...?


By the way: Any sentence that uses 'designers' and 'average' in the same sentence makes me laugh (I'm not laughing at you, please don't be offended). GW staff have a noted tendency to have all kinds of things that are totally broken or completely useless, simply because they never look at the averages. Take the Empire Engineer in WHFB, for example. In my defense it was a hypothetical sentence. I don't know the game designers or the methods they use. All I can say is: "Given x, it seems to me (or 'I think') that y could be the case." I'm saying this because often when one looks at the numbers concerning GW games one doesn't see all the un-quantified information that balances out the numbers on the page, if one supposes that there are units that 'look bad on paper' but get successfully and regularly used by players like GT winners.

Ianos
10-12-2007, 08:19
The thing is however that GW games designers do take into account not only the average killing potential but also the maximum killing potential. You can see in all their articles referring to units not only in terms of ballistics but also in how many shots they can pump. In any case it is certain that any weapon that cannot penetrate the armor but has more shots and equal wound chances to another that can penetrate, the odds are with the non-penetrating weapon especially when cover is brought in.
And that is why i always prefer the scatter to a starcannon except for special cases. Thats why multiple squads of avengers can become deadlier than dragons vs. marines, 10 dragons will kill about 6-7 marines IF not in cover and 10 avengers with storm will kill 4 on average cover or not. Already they are almost the same since at 80% of cases the marines will have some cover. The dragons however can kill 10 marines max no matter what but the Avengers can with the exarch kill 32! The chance that the variance goes to 10 unsaved wounds is a bit unlikelly but it can happen once in the game and ruin an entire battle line!

catbarf
10-12-2007, 11:03
I already said MathHammer becomes more and more accurate as the number of shots increases because it only explains the average chance of happening.
A single 2+ to hit and 2+ to wound ap1 produces near 90% chances of killing while Mathshammer proves otherwise 65%.

Wrong. The chance is still 66% no matter how many dice you roll. The only thing that changes with the number of dice is the reliability.