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Tee
22-04-2008, 16:29
Hello,

I was curious to see how the new damage system will change the chance to destroy a vehicle.

one damage table (with 5,6 - destroyed, etc)
new SMF rule (5+ cover save)
glancing, AP1 weapons

This thread is not a complain , I just did some mathhammer and I was sharing the results with anyone who is interested.

NOTE: This is the chance to destroy a vehicle (without chance to immobilize) and it is after the chance to hit (so basically I skipped the to hit chance). So, the real chance to hit is actually lower then those value (in general is reduce by BS with 1/3).

If you want to add this to math, depending on your balastic skill / twin link or not, etc you reduce the chance with various percentages. Example for a BS 4 (chance to hit 66%) you multiply the below percentage with 2/3.

***LAND RAIDER*** (updated)

4h Edition
2.7% chance to destroy a LR by STR8
8.3% chance to destroy a LR by STR8 AP 1
11.1% chance to destroy a LR by STR9
19.4% chance to destroy a LR by Lance
19.4% chance to destroy a LR by STR10
25% chance to destroy a LR by STR10 AP 1
36% chance to destroy a LR by Str8 AP 1 melta

5h Edition
0% chance to destroy a LR by STR8
2.7% chance to destroy a LR by STR8 AP 1
5.5% chance to destroy a LR by STR9
11.1% chance to destroy a LR by Lance
11.1% chance to destroy a LR by STR10
19.4% chance to destroy a LR by STR10 AP 1
31.1% chance to destroy a LR by Str8 AP 1 melta

***RHINO*** (updated)

4h Edition
27.7% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8
33.3% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 AP 1
36.0% chance to kill a Rhino by STR9
44.4% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10
50.0% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10 AP 1
46.3% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 AP 1 Melta

5h Edition
16.6% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8
27.7% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 AP 1
22.0% chance to kill a Rhino by STR9
27.7% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10
44.4% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10 AP 1
46.3% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 AP 1 Melta

FALCON (with Holofields, Vectored Engines)

4h Edition
1,3% chance to kill a Falcon by STR8
1,3% chance to kill a Falcon by STR8 ap 1
1,8% chance to kill a Falcon by STR9
2,3% chance to kill a Falcon by STR10
2,3% chance to kill a Falcon by STR10 ap 1
2,7% chance to kill a Falcon by STR8+ melta

5h Edition
2,4% chance to kill a Falcon by STR8
2,8% chance to kill a Falcon by STR8 ap 1
3,6% chance to kill a Falcon by STR9
4,8% chance to kill a Falcon by STR10
5,1% chance to kill a Falcon by STR10 ap 1
7,7% chance to kill a Falcon by STR8+ melta

SERPENT(with Vectored Engines)

4h Edition
8,3% chance to kill a Serpent by STR8
8,3% chance to kill a Serpent by STR8 ap 1
8,3% chance to kill a Serpent by STR9
8,3% chance to kill a Serpent by STR10
8,3% chance to kill a Serpent by STR10 ap 1
8,3% chance to kill a Serpent by STR8+ melta

5h Edition
11,1% chance to kill a Serpent by STR8
13.8% chance to kill a Serpent by STR8 ap 1
11,1% chance to kill a Serpent by STR9
11,1% chance to kill a Serpent by STR10
13.8% chance to kill a Serpent by STR10 ap 1
11,1% chance to kill a Serpent by STR8+ melta

Best regards,
Tee

eriochrome
23-04-2008, 16:33
I will assume that you included the skimmers moving fast for the skimmers in 4th and obscured save in 5th. Just proves why falcons are just wrong. Here is my land raider it cost 30% more than your falcon, it is much slower, but has slight better troop carrying and weapons. Oh yeah it also dies 3-10 times more easily.

Just reminds me as did a game yesterday why I do not take tanks with my marines. Only reasons my transports survived is that the opponent did not both to shoot them because he could just out move me with his falcons and serpents.

Tee
23-04-2008, 17:08
I will assume that you included the skimmers moving fast for the skimmers in 4th and obscured save in 5th.

That's correct.

Here is my land raider it cost 30% more than your falcon, it is much slower, but has slight better troop carrying and weapons.

How you come to the idea I have a Falcon and you have a LR?

As a matter of fact I start doing this in order to see how resilient is a LR against a shooty list. Then I added the Eldar vehicles just how ridiculous resilience their are against heavy shooting.

Cheers,
T.

KazenX
23-04-2008, 17:18
This just proves that 40k needs shooting to hit modifiers, it is unreasonable to think that the Land Raider or even the Monolith are less resistant to damage than the Falcon. By all rights the holo-fields should make it harder to hit but there are no mechanics for that currently :(

Tee
23-04-2008, 17:28
Well, I wonder what is GW answer to this chance to destroy a LR vs Falcon.

As even with all changes from 5th edition, it is still way to much difference between them. Not to mention that, while I understand Eldar have the fastest transporters in game, I don't see why they have also the toughest ones (by a large margin) compared with the others - from a gameplay and balance point of view. Especially, I don't see such a big nerf in 5th edition to them.

KazenX
23-04-2008, 17:37
The perk is that if it want's the skimmers moving fast it's only shooting the one gun and since it can't claim the end game star engine rush is gone providing it less utility. Untill I see the new terrian rules in their finality, I can only assume the current fascination with massive amounts of area terrain will continue actually giving the falcon a better save than it would have with the skimmers rule and it would still get to shoot everything.

eriochrome
23-04-2008, 17:51
Mine and you were just generic. Falcon best use is as the transport that cannot be stopped. Properly played with fleeting assault unit you have almost no chance of stopping the unit from getting to its destination and then you do not get to shoot them since they disembark fleet and then assault(falcon of course moves somewhere 6+ inches). The best tactic I have found is to charge the backs of the falcons/serpents so that the unit cannot get out next phase. Even with meltabombs you have no real chance of doing anything to the falcon but the unit has to stay inside.

mchmr6677
23-04-2008, 18:16
Well, I wonder what is GW answer to this chance to destroy a LR vs Falcon.

Their answer is that there is a flaw in your mathammer. You specificially stated that you left out the chance to destroy the falcon by immobilizing it. Beyond that, the falcon only has one option to kill the LR, a BL, which it will hit with only 50% of the time. The LR on the other hand is firing the twin-linked lascannon with a 89% chance to hit.

The LR makes it's cost up by being able to carry terminators and almost twice as many troops as the falcon.

The falcon is a weeker tank then a hammerhead and a weeker transport then a LR. It is one of the hybrids that is going to suffer with the changes. I am going to use the points to bring out serpents that have a better chance of killing the LR and can carry my wraithguard.

eriochrome
23-04-2008, 18:42
I do not think that the discussion is about the two going head to head just their general survival from the damage charts. Of course you have to note that even including the chance to hit the falcon is 3 times more likely to kill the land raider than the raider is of killing the falcon(20*.5 vs 1.8*.9*2). Immobilizing it does not get it killed since it had vectored engines and still has the Holofield that always does a good job reducing the even penetrating hits.

Who needs 5 terminators when 6 harlies are cheaper, faster, harder to target, attack first almost all the time, rend, hit and run.

How much do the serpent run compared to the rhinos since they are again faster, 3-5 times more survivable, and can mount useful weaponry?

kokujin_atsuhara
23-04-2008, 18:44
I disagree with this post.

There are also other factors that destroy a vehicle: now, with only a weapon destroyed, you get half the points.
So the falcon, full equip, now gives 120 points (more or less) a lot easier.

A str8 weapon (lance, ml, melta) you have a 33% of getting a pen-hit.
Then, in the damage chart, you get 44% of getting a result that gives you points.
That's a 14.5% of getting points with the hit.

If it's a LR, with the same weapon, you get a 16% of a glance, then a 33% of getting points with the result.

For a great total of...5.3%

It's much easier to get points shooting a falcon

Nexto
23-04-2008, 19:13
Things which got left out here are that the Falcon can be hit by str6+ weapons, too, which is quite a point.

But all in all youre right, as several people (including me) preached from time to time: falcons didnt get that much of a nerf in 5th edition. Hopefully many ppl read this thread and will base their comments in some statistic evidence in future discussions (most times, they do not on warseer).

eriochrome
23-04-2008, 19:17
Did you remember the obscuring save in the points discussion? This is probably what really evens the field in 5th were normal vechiles can get cover saves. I think in 4th the falcon is nearly impossible to down while in 5th it will be better. If falcons were not cheap currently for what they give, people would not use three almost all the time. I do not think I have ever heard of 3 landraiders in a 2K game but it is standard for 3 falcons or prisms and they do have somewhat similar points costs.

Tee should add to the mathhammer weapon destroyed and immobilized with various saves. Get to it.

mchmr6677
23-04-2008, 19:26
Not to mention that now that you have put vectored engines on the falcon it is a 235pt model now. Not nearly the cheap thing compared to the LR.

Harlies are nice, inside 12", but they are even or worse verse 5 assault terminators. And the termies can assault out of the LR after it moves 12".

mchmr6677
23-04-2008, 19:29
Don't forget that any vehicle can get the obsuring save now, not just the fast ones. They only have the advantage out in the open.

Tee
23-04-2008, 19:35
Here I run Tau skimmers through Mathhammer.

Interesting to see that for weapons with Str 8 Hammerhead is actually harder to kill in 5th. Otherwise the chance to destroy him is increased!

Devilfish (with Decoy Launchers)

4th Edition
10.7% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR8
10.7% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR8 ap 1
14.7% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR9
10.7% chance to kill a Devilfish by Lance
17.0% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR10
17.0% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR10 ap 1
20.6% chance to kill a Devilfish by Str8 ap 1 melta

5th Edition
11.2% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR8
13.4% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR8 ap 1
16.8% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR9
11.2% chance to kill a Devilfish by Lance
24.5% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR10
26.7% chance to kill a Devilfish by STR10 ap 1
30.3% chance to kill a Devilfish by Str8 ap 1 melta

4th Edition
7.4% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8
7.4% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8 ap 1
11.1% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR9
10.7% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Lance
12.9% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10
12.9% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10 ap 1
14.6% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Str8 ap 1 melta

5th Edition
6.4% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8
7.9% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8 ap 1
11.2% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR9
11.2% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Lance
16.5% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10
18.3% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10 ap 1
25.3% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Str8 ap 1 melta

Mandragola
23-04-2008, 19:42

It shows that the slightly increased chance to have your falcon destroyed is matched by a reduced chance of it having a weapon destroyed.

Bear in mind, after all, that there's still only one damage result that sees a wep destroyed; penetrating or glancing, 4th or 5th. You get a 1/6 chance of destroying a wep if you beat the armour, just in 5th there's a 1/3 chance of saving against it. Weapon destroyed and also stun, immobilise and shaken results, will all be rarer in the new system.

Other vehicles in cover get the same benefit. Where a penetrating hit was downgraded to a glance in 4th, nearly always preventing a vehicle from firing, it will now do nothing at all one time in three.

The changes do need to be taken into account along with changes to how defensive weapons work. On the whole I think that vehicles with one main gun, like exorcists, prisms and ordnance firers, get better. Vehicles with multiple guns like predators are probably worse.

Transports, especially those like wave serpents with a single powerful gun, are way better. They don't suffer from moving a bit, they only give away KPs equal to the unit they are carrying, they are tougher and entanglement is gone.

Falcons are hard to judge as they mix multiple roles. They remain a near-guaranteed way to deliver a unit of 6 guys, but that may not be all that hugely helpful now that neither is a scoring unit. Their firepower on the move has also been dramatically cut back. On the whole I think that the current method for using falcons and harlies/fire dragons won't work. I think people will switch to wave serpents and put avengers, guardians (especially storm guardians with flamers) and still maybe some fire dragons in them.

Tee
23-04-2008, 19:48
Harlies are nice, inside 12", but they are even or worse verse 5 assault terminators.

Dunno what you want to say with this. But if we run both Harlis and Termies through Mathhammer (I have on my computer some results) you will see that Harlies are one of the highest damage output unit in the game.

10 Harlies (which cost 220 pts)

VS Light Infatry (Ws3, To3, Sv4+) 16.11 wounds
VS Heavy Infatry (Ws4, To4, Sv3+) 11.39 wounds

5 Deathingwing Termies (which cost 245 pts)
(these ones are equiped with PF/SB, but if I equipped them with LCs they will do actually lower damage, is around 13.80 / 9.50)

VS Light Infatry (Ws3, To3, Sv4+) 14.20 wounds
VS Heavy Infatry (Ws4, To4, Sv3+) 10.80 wounds

If 5x Termies will fight 10x Harlies is a sad story for Emperor's Finest warriors as even if they will charge (Initiative 4 vs Initiative 6 of Harlies) they will be wiped without actually inflicting any casualty. If Harlies charges, they can even wipe 10 Termies on assault.

Best regards,
Tee

eriochrome
23-04-2008, 20:12
Harlies also get the hit and run which allows them to break off from nasty opponents after being charged and charge back in to get those extra attacks. It makes harlies much harder to catch in the open.

6 Harlies charge the 10 man marine squad. Kill 5. Marines do not break. On Marines turn they kill the remainder or hit and run out. Next Harlie turn attack new full squad in the hit and run plus move fleet and assault distance 12+1d6+3?d6. So average range here is 22 inches or almost half way across the board.

mchmr6677
23-04-2008, 20:46
Unfortunitly, I haven't seen my harlies do anything but attract fire and get decimated. Perhaps I underestimated them. Rending has lost its bite though so some of their thunder is gone.

Nexto
23-04-2008, 20:49
Not necessarily, just use doom on the unit you want to attack in 5th edition and they do even more damage than with 4th edition rending+doom, because doom lets you reroll all to wound rolls, so just reroll everything which is not a 6 and watch the carnage.

Marrak
23-04-2008, 20:56
Not necessarily, just use doom on the unit you want to attack in 5th edition and they do even more damage than with 4th edition rending+doom, because doom lets you reroll all to wound rolls, so just reroll everything which is not a 6 and watch the carnage.

Just curious, but isn't the re-roll only for hits that don't wound? Not whichever you desire?

Nexto
23-04-2008, 21:00
Nope it just says you can reroll the to wound rolls, not only the failed ones. This also works great on Wraithguard.

D6Veteran
23-04-2008, 21:59
Here I run Tau skimmers through Mathhammer.

Interesting to see that for weapons with Str 8 Hammerhead is actually harder to kill in 5th. Otherwise the chance to destroy him is increased!

That makes a lot of sense - tracked Rhinos harder to kill, highly maneuverable skimmers with higher armor easier to kill.

On top of that, the math assumes taking wargear for the skimmer.

The name of 40k needs to be changed to 40k Space Marine Combat.

eriochrome
24-04-2008, 00:29
Yes, the wave serpent is now only a 3 times better transport than the rhino instead of 6. So that means a waveserpent should be about 150 points which I am guessing is about what one is. Since the waveserpent can actually carry weapons, maybe we should compare it to the razorback so it is twice as fast, 3 times as survivable, and has twice the troops inside. The razorback does have 3 access points though.

Mandragola
24-04-2008, 00:47
That makes a lot of sense - tracked Rhinos harder to kill, highly maneuverable skimmers with higher armor easier to kill.

On top of that, the math assumes taking wargear for the skimmer.

The name of 40k needs to be changed to 40k Space Marine Combat.

Now you see, there are a number of problems I have with this.

Sometimes it can help to actually read a post before replying to it whining about how useless your troops are. Let's see now:

RHINO

5h Edition
19% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8
22% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 ap 1
25% chance to kill a Rhino by STR9
30% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10
33% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10 ap 1
33% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8+ melta

5th Edition
6.4% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8
7.9% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8 ap 1
11.2% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR9
11.2% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Lance
16.5% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10
18.3% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10 ap 1
25.3% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Str8 ap 1 melta

The numbers for killing the hammerhead seem to be smaller than those for the rhino, indicating less chance of killing the hammerhead. Note that I think Tee is assuming the rhino is popping smoke, or in some kind of cover, or those stats are wrong. Actually they are still wrong anyway. The numbers are actually (without cover on the rhino and with decoy launchers on the HH):

RHINO

5h Edition
17% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8
28% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 ap 1
22% chance to kill a Rhino by STR9
28% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10
42% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10 ap 1
46% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8+ melta

Obviously, 1/3 less likely if it pops smoke or something.

5th Edition
4.6% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8
9.3% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR8 ap 1
9.0% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR9
9.0% chance to kill a Hammerhead by Lance (same as str 9 of course)
13.3% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10
19.4445% chance to kill a Hammerhead by STR10 ap 1
Blah can't be bothered out chance to kill a Hammerhead by Str8 ap 1 melta. Worth a try, I reckon.

Note that the maths gets a bit complicated. For example, a str 10 ap 1 hit has a probability equasion that (before contracting it down, much) looks like 1/6x(1/6+1/18)+3/6x(2(1/2)/3+1/9). That comes down to 315/1620, or 19.4445%, or at least I'm fairly sure it does.

Interestingly, strength 8 AP 1 is usually more dangerous than strength 9. This is because, although the str 9 shot is more likely to penetrate, the strength 8 ap 1 shot is nastier when it penetrates, and can kill on a glancing hit. That doesn't apply on A14, since a penetrating hit from the strength 9 gun is still better than a glance from the strength 8 ap 1, and that's the best it can manage.

Looking at the corrected stats we see that, contrary to your conclusions based on not reading stats (which were wrong anyway), your hammerhead is tougher to kill with strength 8 and 9 weapons in 5th than in 4th, and more or less unchanged against strength 10. You will see that it is also tougher against lower strength weapons than before. Also, it is less likely to have its railgun shot off, or to be stunned or shaken, thanks to the 5+ save. Therefore, it is more likely to be fire, as well as more likely to be alive. If you had read this, you might be happy.

The news is not all good though. It seems that strength 10 AP 1 guns are way more dangerous to just about any vehicle than the puny missile launchers and lascannons of other races. What you are really going to have to watch out for is those guys shooting.

Oh but, hang on...

You are the one with the Railguns.

You can call the game "40k Space Marine Combat" when the smurfs get railguns.

Ok then.

Melta weapons are pretty scary too, but you have the advantage of being in a tank that can move 12" and fire a railgun 72". If someone shoots you with a melta gun you kind of have only yourself to blame.

In conclusion then, by a combination of blindly trusting and then misinterpreting a set of incorrect statistics, you have come to the belief that your hammerheads are going to suddenly start losing in fights with rhino apcs. Or at least I think that's what you are saying.

In fact, your hammerhead seems to have just become tougher and its gun is now not marginally, but MASSIVELY better at taking out tanks than anyone else's gun. A railgun is nearly twice as good at killing rhinos than a lascannon, and nearly three times as good as a missile launcher. A guardsman shooting an autocannon at your front armour will kill you one time in 324. Not good odds when there are submunition rounds coming in his direction.

To be fair, you did correctly recognise that the rhino is going to be a bit tougher to kill. Rhinos should actually work quite well in 5th, unlike in 4th where they are just a poor man's drop pod (or not poor perhaps, since they are more expensive than a drop pod for most armies).

Enjoy your hammerheads in 5th. You might want to swap the SMS for gun drones or something. Unsure about that myself.

BrianGeneral
24-04-2008, 01:39
No Gun Drones for Tau vehicles I think. I'll still take SMS for the no-LOS gimmick once the Railgun got blown off.

You still have a flaw in logic, though. Rhinos are just dedicated transport with, asuming the price cut will take effect in new Marines codex, 35 (and no FOC part is taken). The base cost of a Hammerhead is 90 AND it eats up a Heavy Support choice for the precious Railguns. Enemy can go on without a Rhino or two with teh Run rule, but we can't afford to lose our Railheads. I think it's the difference.

And I really hate GW for not giving us Annhiliated result on the damage result of 7 (6, +1 for AP1 weapons). The transports are now more survivable, no Entanglement, passengers can run as they disembark BUT we don't have a way to take out the vehicle and teh passengers AT ONCE?

Tee
24-04-2008, 07:55
Note that I think Tee is assuming the rhino is popping smoke, or in some kind of cover, or those stats are wrong. Actually they are still wrong anyway.

Hello,

Yes, I did a mistake with the numbers, by forget to add chance to destroy a tank by AP1 weapons (which increase the chance also when rolling a penetrating hit). I will update them soon!

Thanks for pointing out the mistake.

Updated Rhino numbers are:

16.6% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8
27.7% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 ap 1
22.0% chance to kill a Rhino by STR9
27.7% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10
44.4% chance to kill a Rhino by STR10 ap 1
46.3% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 AP 1 Melta

As Mandragola said, indeed the AP 1 weapons will be really strong against vehicles in 5th. Because it will increase the chance to destroy the vehicle when scoring both glancing or penetrating hits.

Best regards,
Tee

Souleater
24-04-2008, 09:27
How have you allowed for the fact that hits get bumped up the chart if the vehicle has already been immobilized and/or had its weapons destroyed?

This can lead to even glancing hits destroying a vehicle, I think.

Mandragola
24-04-2008, 09:30
You still have a flaw in logic, though. Rhinos are just dedicated transport with, asuming the price cut will take effect in new Marines codex, 35 (and no FOC part is taken). The base cost of a Hammerhead is 90 AND it eats up a Heavy Support choice for the precious Railguns. Enemy can go on without a Rhino or two with teh Run rule, but we can't afford to lose our Railheads. I think it's the difference.

Obviously, the marine player is unlikely to succeed if he relies on rhino apcs as his own anti-tank element as well. He is going to need some lascannons or something. Marines may need some heavy support, or they may take heavy weapons in tactical squads and razorbacks. The latter option is nice in that you have lots of scoring units and flexibility, but isn't really the most devastating anti-tank set up you can have.

I don't really think it makes sense to put rhinos and hammerheads up against each other as a direct comparison. All this mathhammer doesn't really really take into account the fact that they are totally different vehicles that fulfill unrelated jobs in your army.

For example the rhino might well have already moved 12" and dropped its troops (who then rapid fired) on turn one, before anyone got to shoot at it. Pointless to kill it after that.

That wasn't really my point though. I just think it's weird to complain about hammerheads getting weaker and rhinos getting tougher when actually the hammerheads have not got weaker at all, and posess one of the best weapons for killing other people's vehicles, rhinos included, in the game.

Mandragola
24-04-2008, 09:33
How have you allowed for the fact that hits get bumped up the chart if the vehicle has already been immobilized and/or had its weapons destroyed?

This can lead to even glancing hits destroying a vehicle, I think.

My stats don't take this into account. You can't really, because you don't know the chance that the vehicle would be damaged or how damaged it would be.

You get different numbers if you fire at a hammerhead that didn't move or has lost its weapons, or at a rhino that has lost its gun and is immobilised.

Tee
24-04-2008, 09:53
The entire idea with Mathhammer is not to play the game based on such numbers. It is more a supporting mean, which helps you to evaluate some tactical situations and optimal choices or when trying to make a list.

Wining and losing the game is still based on tactical decisions and how you lead your troops. Going in details like - weapon destroyed, various cover saves, etc only make the information harder to use.

These tables should be used to get a rough idea of heavy weapons efficiency against various vehicles, and the risk factor related with their resilience.

Example:

You have a Squad with 1x STR8 AP 1 and you have in LOS a Rhino and a LR.

Looking at those tables you know:

27.7% chance to kill a Rhino by STR8 AP 1
2.7% chance to destroy a LR by STR8 AP 1

Which, means you have 10 times more chance to destroy the Rhino compared with LR. What you will do?

Of course there are many others factors, have the Rhino dropped his troops, do I really need to destroy the LR this turn, etc. But the fact is clear, if you will try to go for LR you will have 97% chance to "waste" your shoot, while against the Rhino only 63%.

These values let you evaluate the situation better, but in the end it is important to remember that the choice is to the general.

mchmr6677
24-04-2008, 13:41
The entire idea with Mathhammer is not to play the game based on such numbers. It is more a supporting mean, which helps you to evaluate some tactical situations and optimal choices or when trying to make a list.

Very true. Although it does call into question some of your assumptions in your original post. Assuming fast moving skimmers and wargear (like holo-fields or smokelaunchers) is one of those tactical decisions. Ruling out immobilizing skimmers as destroyed is as well (I rarely put vectored engies on a falcon because I don't use them that often as a transport and the points can be used elsewhere).