Lord Inquisitor

16-07-2008, 20:09

I heard an awful lot for a long time about Falcons being "nerfed" in 5th edition. I had a conversation recently about how falcons got nerfed, and we'll be seeing waveserpents on the tables. Now I've got my rulebook finally, is that really the case?

Let's say I've hit with a lascannon, and the Falcon is in the open.

4th ed

Falcon (with holofield) moving 6-24". 2/3 chance of glancing, 1/3 chance of killing it but have a reroll.

Probability of killing the falcon = 2/3 * 1/3^2 = 2/27 = 7%

However, if you do suffer a destroyed result, the troops inside suffer a 3/4 chance of taking a hit.

5th ed

Falcon (with holofield) moving 0-12". 1/6 chance of glancing (which cannot destroy the tank and only a 1 in 12 chance of actually damaging it) and 1/2 chance of a penetrating hit (1/3 chance of killing it but have a reroll).

Probability of killing the falcon = 1/2 * 1/9 = 1/18 = 6%

If it's in cover you can halve that probability.

Now, a tank that moves flat out:

P = 1/2 * 1/4 *1/2 = 1/16 = 6%

So, while it makes very little difference, a falcon is slightly better of staying still out in the open than flat out.

The troops inside, incidentally, are virtually immune to damage. Want to know the probability of shooting a lascannon at a falcon and hurting the troops inside? 1 in 72. (Make that 1 in 144 if SMF) Talk about safe!

While we're at it, I've heard that people are far more keen on waveserpents...

Probability of killing a waveserpent (<12") = 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = 11%

Flat out = 1/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/12 = 8%

So you're best off going flat out with serpents, and they're nearly as tough as falcons when doing that. That said, that includes the 1/18 chance of a lascannon blowing it up and hurting the transported troops.

Of course vectored engines make things more complicated (although I'll wager we'll see more serpents with vectored engines and less falcons with vectored engines...)

The above don't take melta weapons into account (which are undeniably vastly better in this edition, especially against skimmers like the falcon), but as I see it, whether standing still or moving flat out, holofield falcons have got tougher in this edition, and still trumph waveserpents, although the distance has closed now.

Let's say I've hit with a lascannon, and the Falcon is in the open.

4th ed

Falcon (with holofield) moving 6-24". 2/3 chance of glancing, 1/3 chance of killing it but have a reroll.

Probability of killing the falcon = 2/3 * 1/3^2 = 2/27 = 7%

However, if you do suffer a destroyed result, the troops inside suffer a 3/4 chance of taking a hit.

5th ed

Falcon (with holofield) moving 0-12". 1/6 chance of glancing (which cannot destroy the tank and only a 1 in 12 chance of actually damaging it) and 1/2 chance of a penetrating hit (1/3 chance of killing it but have a reroll).

Probability of killing the falcon = 1/2 * 1/9 = 1/18 = 6%

If it's in cover you can halve that probability.

Now, a tank that moves flat out:

P = 1/2 * 1/4 *1/2 = 1/16 = 6%

So, while it makes very little difference, a falcon is slightly better of staying still out in the open than flat out.

The troops inside, incidentally, are virtually immune to damage. Want to know the probability of shooting a lascannon at a falcon and hurting the troops inside? 1 in 72. (Make that 1 in 144 if SMF) Talk about safe!

While we're at it, I've heard that people are far more keen on waveserpents...

Probability of killing a waveserpent (<12") = 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9 = 11%

Flat out = 1/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/12 = 8%

So you're best off going flat out with serpents, and they're nearly as tough as falcons when doing that. That said, that includes the 1/18 chance of a lascannon blowing it up and hurting the transported troops.

Of course vectored engines make things more complicated (although I'll wager we'll see more serpents with vectored engines and less falcons with vectored engines...)

The above don't take melta weapons into account (which are undeniably vastly better in this edition, especially against skimmers like the falcon), but as I see it, whether standing still or moving flat out, holofield falcons have got tougher in this edition, and still trumph waveserpents, although the distance has closed now.