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Wolflord Havoc
14-08-2008, 17:26
Okay so I was building another squad of heavy weapon teams last night for my guard Company and I was suddenly struck with a thought.

How many humans could there be in the Galaxy in the 40K universe?

After pondering this for a while this is the formula that I came up with

We have 6 Billion people today - so therefore 3 Billion 'couples' and lets say each has 2.5 kids on average. This generation then has children 20 years later and so on and so forth.

So I have to divide 39000 by 20 to give me the number of generations which would be 1950.

This is were my A level + maths (learned many years ago) begins to fail.

So I think the formula should be something along the lines of

3,000,000,000 * 2.5 * (2.5 to the power of 1950)

But it does not look right!!!!

So several google searches later I get this

The Malthusian Growth Model and I will give the growth rate at 1.25% per year (which is slightly higher than current pop growth)

So 6,000,000,000 * 1.25% * 1.25% (to the power of 39000) = our answer

Is this the correct way to express the formula

or could the formula be ((1.25% * 1.25%) * 39000) * 6 billion?

Bah :confused:

Discuss

Joe Kutz
14-08-2008, 17:39
You must also take into account a few cataclysmic events which cut the population in half during each event...

And the wars...

And Exterminatus...

But yes, humans in 40K breed like roaches. Good thing that they have all those wars to fight for population control.

starlight
14-08-2008, 17:48
Why do you think it's so common to hear about Exterminatus/planets being overrun by Orks/Tyranid invasions/etc?

Short of a full scale Waargh or Tyranid invasion, they can afford the losses...:p

olmsted
14-08-2008, 18:10
lets say this. one hive has more people then an entire Tau Sept.

MvS
14-08-2008, 20:34
I believe this very topic was discussed a year or so back. Someone even did the math.

Looking at the numbers that are supposed to live in Hive Worlds the Galactic Imperium of Man would have trillions upon trillions upon trillions of humans - truly insane figures, growing year on year. Hence the Imperial Guard have near limitless boots-on-the-ground to throw at a problem.

You really wouldn't be missed if you died. In fact your whole town, city, country, continent or planet might not be missed depending on how integral it is to the smooth running of the Imperium.

Col. Tartleton
14-08-2008, 21:15
It would be roughly 6.5 Billion x 2% to the 38000 power.

2 percent is about as low as the rate now, which is actually in decline despite the enormous pop est. in the future. This allows for higher birth rates and death rates evening out to an average point...

Does anyone know what that would amount to... its not an accurate figure though but its a figure.

I'm feeling the Quintillions region based on the idea of a million worlds of a billion each which is a very conservative estimate.

With a 1 in a thousand men under arms... thats about 500 billion assuming woman don't count as applicants. Thats unrealistic because we know that more than 1 in 1000 men is at least PDF level infantry. Perhaps 1 in100 men is a soldier, a figure putting the under arms mark at 5 trillion men under arms, and about 30 times that applicable for service when eliminating older and younger segments of the population and assuming that the young could serve and the old could do non combatant work I'd imagine a good 70% of the male population is of some use. That would be 35 quadrillion men under arms. If women were assumed equally expendable, that would be a draft of nearly 70 quadrillion humans. Enough to tell a hive fleet to "suk on ma n** sack" however this would not be a guard estimate, but a full human conscription which would be astronomical when figuring that the average dispute on a world is in the millions at most with some colossal battles being higher. This means that the force of constantly under armed for the temporary (because the imperium would fall if that was kept up certainly) means that 700,000 of the million worlds would have a billion militia on them. A daunting though when several thousand guardsmen with a few companies of marines can hold a small local of a helms deep like metropolis against Tyranids for at least a week or two.

(Warriors of Ultramar= Graham McNeil Levels of Epic Shenanigans)

heretics bane
14-08-2008, 21:36
Well theres millions of hive citys at least that each can house like 16+ billion people etc.

Basicly look at the imperial gaurd, millions die every day but theres always at least 10 more men/women to take their place.

DarkMatter2
14-08-2008, 21:46
The new rulebook states that there are thousands of trillions of humans, so the lower bound would be in the lower quadrillions.

There are, according to the new rulebook, about 32,800 hive worlds in the Imperium, each expected to hold hundreds of billions.

Seeing that the Imperial population is so huge, it may actually be a sort of Malthusian escape hatch to have millions of guardsmen, male and female, dying every day.

Burning Star IV
14-08-2008, 22:04
Hmm. After considering the figures, and what a logistical nightmare it would be to keep that many people alive/ civilized, etc. it might be a good thing for humanity as a whole that entire planets are regularly wiped out.

icegreentea
14-08-2008, 23:11
Hmm. After considering the figures, and what a logistical nightmare it would be to keep that many people alive/ civilized, etc. it might be a good thing for humanity as a whole that entire planets are regularly wiped out.

Logistics scale. Today, we think 'nightmare' logistics is a couple hundred bureaucrats. The Imperium has entire planets of them. All they ever do is make sure that planets survive and pay taxes. That's it. Actually, nevermind the survive part. Just the taxes. The non-super secretive part of Terra is split between pilgrims, priests, and bureaucrats.

Besides, the Administratum doesn't need planets to be wiped out for them to 'disappear' from the overall logistics of the Empire. They just have to misfile them.

'Cadia just dropped off the map sir!'
'Wait sir. Getting reports. Ah yes, recovery team beta-3 found Cadia. Typographical error'
'Find me the scribe, and bring him to me. I will have answers for this!'

starlight
14-08-2008, 23:11
All of the numbers in the rulebook were made up by geeks, not people who have the slightest idea about population sustainability.:p

The huge numbers are used *because* they are huge, not because they are believable or even possible.:p The Rule of Cool/The LCF (Look Cool Factor) will always triumph over *reality* in 40K...;)

El_Machinae
14-08-2008, 23:38
I'd expect that their growth rates peaked some time ago and so we wouldn't see a Galaxy-wide 2% growthrate anymore, not for 10000 years. That said, with attrition due to wars and atrocities, the individual growth rates might have to be pretty good. They would have a high birth rate and a high death rate, but a mostly stable population.

To put it in perspective, Earth is expected to stabilise at about 9-11 billion people by 2050 and then we'll probably stay around there until we break out into space. We'd like it to stabilise below 9 billion, but that would require turning around poverty in the 3rd world faster than it's expected to happen without increased wisdom (and charity) on our part.

DarkMatter2
15-08-2008, 01:12
All of the numbers in the rulebook were made up by geeks, not people who have the slightest idea about population sustainability.:p

The Population for a million world empire where most people lived like roaches in hive cities would have to be enormous.

I imagine that for every hive world there are 4-5 agriworlds utilized for feeding it.

I think it only makes sense that the population would be well into the quadrillions.

Gloom
15-08-2008, 01:44
If we assume the Gothic Sector is an average imperial sector (since its approx pop its stated somewhere) I remeber the calculation working out to approx 15 000 000 000 000 000 000 or so.

I didnt pull this out of thin air, I remember seeing the math and just cant find it again.

The same place dealt with the exact number of capital ships in the Imperial Navy too, it was only like 25 000 or so.

Chem-Dog
15-08-2008, 01:47
I'm not even going to attempt to wade into the maths side of things but I will say that the age expectancy of a human in the imperium is generally WAY lower than we have these days.

I think you could reasonably expect couples (if indeed you're assuming a monogamous relationship is the norm) to be procreating at a much earlier age too, if you equate the living conditions (and life expectancy) of a low level hive dweller to the conditions someone of a similar social standing (bottom of the rung unskilled/semi-skilled workers) might expect in the Victorian era, for example, you'll be having marriage at 14 perhaps even younger, childhood would only exist as a concept and you'd probably be working as soon as you were able to stand upright.

Although the starting younger tends to cancel out the dying younger thing, levels of pollutants, poor diet, disease and all of the other perils of poverty would serve to make the populace generally less fertile, then when you skim off whatever percentage are mutant....unless you want to count them.

DarkMatter2
15-08-2008, 02:07
I think the whole doom and gloom of life in the Imperium outside of warzones is a bit overdone.

On say a hive world, you might have lower life expectancy among the very poor, but, with the advanced in technology, I imagine most worlds have a very high life expectancy, and among the super wealthy it would be around 250 or so.

PondaNagura
15-08-2008, 02:41
Trillions Upon Trillions!!
so many more than the stars themselves, that if you were to line them one to one, each abreast, they would block out the sun of every system throughout the galaxy...!!!

...well, thousands of trillions, and more than there are stars in the galaxy part at least.

ctsteel
15-08-2008, 12:39
Hmm. After considering the figures, and what a logistical nightmare it would be to keep that many people alive/ civilized, etc. it might be a good thing for humanity as a whole that entire planets are regularly wiped out.

except that wiping out a planet full of humans is no big deal, but wiping out the planet itself, means one less habitable planet in the galaxy. And those are finite in number.

The imperium may not care too much (at least on the surface) but over time that will add up. There may be millions upon millions of stars in the galaxy, but not all of them have planets, and not all of those are viable for human colonisation. Although this is somewhat mitigated by hive cities being pretty much self contained and able to exist on worlds that are toxic etc on the outside.

So my point is not quite so worrying as first seems, nevertheless, every planet that is dealt exterminatus and becomes a sterile ashwaste, is one less planet immediately useable. Think Easter Island and their cutting down of the trees - at first there were so many trees it didn't matter.....

Sai-Lauren
15-08-2008, 13:20
In SI prefixes, probably at least a Yotta (10^24) - Megadeath is the term for 1 million people dying, the imperium probably wouldn't start to take notice until they got to Petadeath (1 thousand trillion - 10^15) - in fact, if all the humans in the imperium (not including those humans outside it, or all the Ogryn, Ratlings, Marines and others who don't really classify as humans) were all stood shoulder to shoulder, then some Ecclesiarchy priest would condemn them as heretics for taking time out of their roles in the Emperors glorious works to take part in some vile heretical ritual, and have them all burnt. :p

Hive Primus on Necromunda is supposed to have a population in excess of 6 billion IIRC, and that's just one hive on one hive world - total planetary population for Necromunda could easily be 100 billion.

One person isn't a small cog in a large machine - they're a tiny cog in a very small machine, that feeds into a slightly larger machine, and so on.

As for birth rate - click your fingers, about one million babies across the whole imperium were just delivered. And right now, their lungs are going at full bore on their first scream.

But at the same time, about one million people across the imperium took their final breath.

DarkMatter2
15-08-2008, 13:36
except that wiping out a planet full of humans is no big deal, but wiping out the planet itself, means one less habitable planet in the galaxy. And those are finite in number.

1. The Imperium can terraform.

2. An Imperium of a Million Worlds would still be vanishingly small in a galaxy of 400 billion stars. The Imperium is NOT going to run out of Lebensraum.

Sai-Lauren
15-08-2008, 15:05
1. The Imperium can terraform.

Not unless something's changed recently - the only planet I know of that got Terraformed was Mars during the Dark Age of Technology, and that got undone rapidly during the AM civil war in the Heresy.

Besides which, Hellaforming would be closer to what the Imperium do to worlds. :p

2. An Imperium of a Million Worlds would still be vanishingly small in a galaxy of 400 billion stars. The Imperium is NOT going to run out of Lebensraum.
Actually, yes, they will.

400 billion stars.
How many have planets in their life zone? (1 in 10 - let's be generous - so that's 40 billion worlds)
How many stars are stable enough that any planet in the life zone isn't scoured clean by radiation? (1 in 10 again - 4 billion worlds)
How many of those planets are massive enough to generate enough gravity to retain oxygen gas? (1 in 10 - 400 million worlds)
How many of those planets that can have oxygen also have water? (1 in 10 - 40 million)
How many don't already have residents that you need to try and evict? (1 in 10 - 4 million, of which the Imperium has 25% already ;)).

Exterminatus an imperial world - you lose the population, their productivity, any natural resources (even ores, because you can't have anyone down there to dig them up without major work to establish a sealed base), and to establish a replacement world you have to take resources off other projects to find it, work out whether it's usable or not, and if it is take it, and then wait for it to become profitable - which may be centuries from now. And the imperium isn't anywhere near infinitely wealthy.

Exterminatus too many worlds, the imperium would simply be unable to divert resources away from other projects to replace them, and you're getting into the collapse of the cvilisation.

That's why only Inquisitors can order it, and they then effectively face a trial to see whether the use was warranted - remember, Kryptman is effectively a fugitive because of his Exterminatus orders against Kraken.

MvS
15-08-2008, 22:23
Trillions Upon Trillions!!
:D

Triilions upon trillions, adding the 'upons' together rather than multiplying them. ;)

DarkMatter2
16-08-2008, 03:24
Not unless something's changed recently - the only planet I know of that got Terraformed was Mars during the Dark Age of Technology, and that got undone rapidly during the AM civil war in the Heresy.

The Imperium can terraform, and nothing has changed recently.

400 billion stars.
How many have planets in their life zone? (1 in 10 - let's be generous - so that's 40 billion worlds)
How many stars are stable enough that any planet in the life zone isn't scoured clean by radiation? (1 in 10 again - 4 billion worlds)
How many of those planets are massive enough to generate enough gravity to retain oxygen gas? (1 in 10 - 400 million worlds)
How many of those planets that can have oxygen also have water? (1 in 10 - 40 million)
How many don't already have residents that you need to try and evict? (1 in 10 - 4 million, of which the Imperium has 25% already ;)).

So you felt the need to make up a bunch of numbers?

Even if your ridiculous estimation is correct, 4 times as many planets as the Imperium has now is still A WHOLE FREAKING LOT.

And of course you are leaving out the fact that the Imperium does of course take most of its planets from other species.

Running out of planets is not a concern to the Imperium.

That's why only Inquisitors can order it, and they then effectively face a trial to see whether the use was warranted - remember, Kryptman is effectively a fugitive because of his Exterminatus orders against Kraken.

Actually Kryptman is a fugitive for using exterminatus on planets that were then taken over by Orks (and it was Leviathan not Kraken.)

Exterminatus an imperial world - you lose the population, their productivity, any natural resources (even ores, because you can't have anyone down there to dig them up without major work to establish a sealed base)

The Imperium is hardly a well developed economy. On all but the most important worlds, the loss of productivity and natural resources would be irrelevant because those resources were only being used by the local population to support their economic efforts to begin with. Most planets are self contained economies - it simply isn't profitable to try and build an interconnected interplanetary economy with space travel as unreliable and limited as it is.

The only loss to the Imperium at large would be tithes of money and manpower, which some planets hardly pay anyway.

It cuts both ways too - one planet exterminatus'ed is one less planet for the overstretched Guard and Navy to have to defend.

and to establish a replacement world you have to take resources off other projects to find it

The Imperium is not some centralized economy that doles out resources to do every task. New colonies are founded, for example, by retiring Guardsmen, using localized resources. You seem to have a huge and fundamental misconception as to how the Imperium would work - most sectors have never even seen war, therefore using their resources to found new colony worlds is no huge expense that takes away from some larger war chest.

Raxmei
16-08-2008, 03:57
There's an example hive world in the rule book alongside a number of hive worlds in the Imperium. Assume that hive is typical (huge assumption, I know) and multiply the two and you come out with just under five quadrillion people on hive worlds alone.
32,380 worlds out of the million world Imperium are hives, or about one out of thirty. I have no idea about the population of all the rest, but if the average is a bit under Earth's current population that's enough to get to ten quadrillion.

Sai-Lauren
18-08-2008, 12:35
The Imperium can terraform, and nothing has changed recently.

Any examples spring to mind? Because outside of Mars pre-heresy, I've got nothing.

So you felt the need to make up a bunch of numbers?

Even if your ridiculous estimation is correct, 4 times as many planets as the Imperium has now is still A WHOLE FREAKING LOT.

And of course you are leaving out the fact that the Imperium does of course take most of its planets from other species.

Running out of planets is not a concern to the Imperium.

Yes, I did feel the need to make up some numbers, because that was to illustrate an absolute best case scenario. It's more likely that in each of those cases, it's not one in ten that meet the criteria, it's one in a hundred or worse. Which suddenly means that most of the worlds in the imperium don't pass all of those criteria at all - and need a lot of help to support their population and reason to be there (be it mining, manufacturing or whatever).

But the most "profitable" worlds for the imperium to take, those that give the most return on the colonisation effort, would pass as many as possible - and they're very, very thin on the ground. Wheras a colony on a radiation scoured world without a native atmosphere would probably only produce raw materials (no people for the navy or guard) and take in a lot of air, food and water.

And as for taking worlds off other species, you still need the troops, supplies and so on to be able to take them, then you need to make them yours and start them producing resources. The more worlds you lose, the more raw materials, manufacturing facilities and population you lose access to, the more you weaken yourself, and the harder it becomes to even defend yourself, let alone begin to expand again.

One world here, another one there, sooner or later, you'll lose some vital resource, and then you're finished.

The Imperium is hardly a well developed economy. On all but the most important worlds, the loss of productivity and natural resources would be irrelevant because those resources were only being used by the local population to support their economic efforts to begin with. Most planets are self contained economies - it simply isn't profitable to try and build an interconnected interplanetary economy with space travel as unreliable and limited as it is.

Depends on whether you believe the fluff, that every planet is an island, or you start looking beyond the fluff and see that it would mean the imperium wouldn't last over 10,000 years, rather it would fall apart in about 15 seconds flat. ;)

The only loss to the Imperium at large would be tithes of money and manpower, which some planets hardly pay anyway.

But most do, and those worlds that don't pay could be made to pay up if the governor was suitably persuaded (or executed and replaced).

It cuts both ways too - one planet exterminatus'ed is one less planet for the overstretched Guard and Navy to have to defend.

But it's still part of a system that may have important resources (ores etc), that has warp links to other systems, that can hide pirates etc in the future. And you've now destroyed any possible sources of supplies for your patrols in the system as well.

The Imperium is not some centralized economy that doles out resources to do every task. New colonies are founded, for example, by retiring Guardsmen, using localized resources. You seem to have a huge and fundamental misconception as to how the Imperium would work - most sectors have never even seen war, therefore using their resources to found new colony worlds is no huge expense that takes away from some larger war chest.

Actually, yes it is a massively centralised economy - all the tithes (taxes) are levied by the Administratum and officially go back to Terra. Whether they actually get there or not, or are sent somewhere else where they're needed now, is another matter. By far the biggest drain on those taxes is the Imperial War Machine (I'd say over 50%), then probably the Administratum (likely 25-30%) and so on, and whether you're a world close to the front lines, or one that's nominally at peace, you're still paying for it - what you describe would be like having the taxes of Sandhurst or other military towns being used solely for the British Army, whilst those of Halifax are used for mantaining the roads, and Brighton's taxes go on the coastal weather defences.

It doesn't happen like that.

Colonisation would be very low down the priority list, you'd pretty much have to convince someone that in one hundred years time, it'll have made x times the amount that has been put into it.

Demobilzed guardsmen are given the opportunity to settle on a conquered world - true. However, that would at best be a few hundred people, and probably only one of one gender. You want anything out of that world, you're going to need to ship in a lot more colonists, supplies, and so on. Those de-mobbed guardsmen would probably going to be the ruling caste and the PDF for a generation or so, until a proper
governor can be appointed.

Gloryseeker
18-08-2008, 21:17
err... dont no if this has been said but this is taken from the 5th ed rule book page 115.

Minea has a pop of 154 billion, if you take this as a 'normal' hive world and then multiple it by the approx number of hive worlds in the imperium 3.238*10^4 then you get(both fig taken from page 115).

=4.98652*10^15

or

4,986,520,000,000,000

when there is about 6,500,000,000 of us on earth thats a lot more!

or 767157 earths.

(please dont kill me if my maths is wrong)

Love you all

Gloryseeker
18-08-2008, 21:18
^^ thats not counting everyone thats not on a hive world!!

Splog
18-08-2008, 22:40
We talk about exceptional individuals being one in a million. World leading scientists, world beating athletes, great writers and artists, strategists, orators, visionaries, philosophers... even if they were ten million, one in a hundred million, even one in a billion... the Imperium of Man has a heck of a lot of them in every generation, and there have been a lot of generations.

Want to write a book? Whats the point, thousands of Shakespeares/Burnses/Kiplings/Tolkiens/Rowlings/Abnetts/Whoevers have been there before you. Your story has already been written and was written better.
Want to beat a record? Every worthwhile record you could name has been set long ago and is to all intents and purposes unbeatable.
Want to invent something new within your techbase? You can't, a thousand people beat you to it.
Want to advance science? Unaided you can't there is too much to learn in any domain even if you could live several lifetimes. You can't learn enough to be able to fill in the gaps, or advance science.. its been done before.
Got a new idea? No you don't.

To all intents of purposes for whatever you name there will always be someone better than you. Thousands of them. Billions.

In the grim darkness of the future there is only mediocrity.

Gloryseeker
18-08-2008, 22:44
Got a new idea? No you don't.

haha great post splog, even made my girlfiend laugh.

Firaxin
18-08-2008, 23:26
hehehe... foolish tau think they can overwhelm us...

Jahred
18-08-2008, 23:58
Also, I'm sure that a few humans were "cloned" during the Dark Age of Technology as well as other unspeakable (and uncomprehendable) breeding technologies being employed.

Trolond
19-08-2008, 04:38
Want to write a book? Whats the point, thousands of Shakespeares/Burnses/Kiplings/Tolkiens/Rowlings/Abnetts/Whoevers have been there before you. Your story has already been written and was written better.
Want to beat a record? Every worthwhile record you could name has been set long ago and is to all intents and purposes unbeatable.
Want to invent something new within your techbase? You can't, a thousand people beat you to it.
Want to advance science? Unaided you can't there is too much to learn in any domain even if you could live several lifetimes. You can't learn enough to be able to fill in the gaps, or advance science.. its been done before.
Got a new idea? No you don't.

This isn't necessarily true... Because of both the focus on expansionism and militarism throughout the Imperium (In reality, and by that I mean in the Imperium, you either work for the government (Military, shipping, something...), you are in power and have no need to work, or you are rogue and acting against the will of the imperium), arts probably only flourish through the wealthy, traders, and the like. Normal hive dwellers probably don't have all that much access to all but the most famous works.

As for important sciences, they are probably harnessed by the imperial officials as soon as they come into being and are implemented as quickly as possible.

As for records, I don't remember where exactly it was. Possibly in an IA, or the last rule book, or something... It spoke of the scribes in the vaults of Terra... just now recieving news and events to be chronicled that may have happened centuries ago. Even if you did manage to break an imperial record, it would not be recorded for a very, very long time. I would guess that if records were going to be kept of people's achievements, they would be kept on the planet itself, or possibly the system, rather than as imperial 'standards'.

ctsteel
19-08-2008, 07:22
I find it hard to imagine that the Adeptus Administorum, would actually care about recording who ran the fastest on Hive World xxx, which world's artists first worked out illusory cubism art styles, or who ate the most groxburgers in a contest. Humans are numbers, cogs, resources and fodder. What they do is only relevant if it furthers the Imperium's agenda, and would be measure on a much larger scale than one person.

The records may be kept on some peaceful, smaller backwater worlds where they have the luxury of doing this, but I can't even imagine Hive Worlds being willing to notice or record this stuff, they probably can't even keep up with recording the population count let alone the specifics of a person.

Military, administrative, imperial tithing, cargo and passenger transport manifests etc are all crucial to the normal running of the system, everything else is irrelevant to these people.

Wolflord Havoc
19-08-2008, 12:47
Hmmm some interesting debate.

Firstly my understanding of terra forming in the universe of 40K was that it is a lost art - but one that was used by Humanity throughout the Dark Age of technology.

An example of a terraformed world other than Mars.....Taros (See IA 3) was Terraformed and settled during the DAOT but the population regressed to a 'aboriginal' state by the 30the millenia and was 'purged' during the great crusade IIRC.

And Glory Seeker - good numbers - and that would just be a fraction of the worlds that make up the Imperium!!!

Regarding Writers, celebs, sportspersons, etc on a given planet - I would imagine that while the greater Galaxy might not give a damn, a given people on a given planet or even of a region on a planet would care about such things (and indeed not really care very much about what goes on elsewhere - thats an issue for the Administratum).

Darkmatter2 - I do not see the Imperial Navy and Guard as being overstretched as such - simply 'Slow to react'.

In the IA: Vraxs book it took years for the Imperial Guard to mobilise and respond in bringing the massive numbers of men and machines to bear against the renegades.

Glabro
23-08-2008, 22:39
We have 6 Billion people today - so therefore 3 Billion 'couples' and lets say each has 2.5 kids on average. This generation then has children 20 years later and so on and so forth.

Are you seriously suggesting EVERYONE in the world is coupled and (almost all of them) have kids?

Wow. Just...wow.

Leman Russ
23-08-2008, 23:56
The Malthusian Growth Model and I will give the growth rate at 1.25% per year (which is slightly higher than current pop growth)

So 6,000,000,000 * 1.25% * 1.25% (to the power of 39000) = our answer

Is this the correct way to express the formula

or could the formula be ((1.25% * 1.25%) * 39000) * 6 billion?

Bah :confused:

Discuss

I pumped this into a Calculator and came up with a number much to big to even write lol. best I could get was to get it rounded to a 3 followed by 373,217 zeros...

I think it might be off JUUUUST a little

ironcurtin117
24-08-2008, 02:20
Not sure if this is "birth rate" but think ~1,000,000 worlds @ avg of 8 billion each + Hundreds of thousands of warships with crews ranging from one thousand to two hundred thousand + Guard regiments in transit (Uncounted Billions) + Tech priests, unaccounted for pilgrims, worlds lost contact with etc you have room for quintillions of humans, even if a tiny percentage of that number reproduced @ the 2.1 rate required to maintain today's population - Well - you got a ton of babies

gamer2456
24-08-2008, 03:21
Isnt Holy Terra itself supposed to have some 300 billion people?

ChaosBeast
24-08-2008, 10:19
probably moe like half a trillion

abasio
24-08-2008, 12:45
Thinking of the number of stars, worlds, citizens is tricky as we don't know the number of habitable worlds or even the number of stars in the galaxy or how many catastrophes have ravaged the population.
Wikipedia states there are between 200 & 400 billion stars in the milky way galaxy. Lets say 200 billion. Maybe on average 1% have a system with a habitable planet. It may be less systems but some systems have more than one habitable planet so it might average out. That's 2 billion worlds. If each planet had an average population that Earth has now (conservative I know due to all them hive worlds but there would be a lot of ****** little worlds with close to bugger all on them) so 6 billion so;
2,000,000,000 x 6,000,000,000 = 12,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 12 quintillion (12 trillion in the old scale)
12 quintillion as a conservative estimate.

as an upper estimate lets say that there are 400 billion stars & the average population is 100 billion (if Minea is a normal hive world at 154 billion people) then the number would be;

4,000,000,000 x 100,000,000,000 = 400,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 400 quintillion people.

12 quintillion to 400 quintillion people

or mind bogglingly many people.

if we extrapolated from todays population then the formula would look something like

xa^b

x=today's population
a=the rate of increase
b=number of generations

if today's population is 6 billion, the rate of increase is 1.2 (if a couple has on average 2.4 kids {the English rate}) and the number of generations is (as stated above) is 1950

so 6bn x (1.2)^1950

6bn x (2.5318 x10^154) or 15.2 x 10^163 or 15 vigintillion googol but that's with no catastrophes, war or disease.

conclusion

the number of people in the Galaxy in the 41st millennium is mind bogglingly huge that it shouldn't be thought about too much.

Th3 Maels7rom
24-08-2008, 20:46
Okay so I was building another squad of heavy weapon teams last night for my guard Company and I was suddenly struck with a thought.

How many humans could there be in the Galaxy in the 40K universe?

After pondering this for a while this is the formula that I came up with

We have 6 Billion people today - so therefore 3 Billion 'couples' and lets say each has 2.5 kids on average. This generation then has children 20 years later and so on and so forth.

So I have to divide 39000 by 20 to give me the number of generations which would be 1950.

This is were my A level + maths (learned many years ago) begins to fail.

So I think the formula should be something along the lines of

3,000,000,000 * 2.5 * (2.5 to the power of 1950)

But it does not look right!!!!

So several google searches later I get this

The Malthusian Growth Model and I will give the growth rate at 1.25% per year (which is slightly higher than current pop growth)

So 6,000,000,000 * 1.25% * 1.25% (to the power of 39000) = our answer

Is this the correct way to express the formula

or could the formula be ((1.25% * 1.25%) * 39000) * 6 billion?

Bah :confused:

Discuss

Also remember the death rate in the 41st millennium. Most planets draft the majority of the male youth into the imperial guard, and the standard of living is much lower. There aren't really any labor laws or anything like that preventing from laborers being worked to death. The books say that there are "untold trillions".

Griefbringer
25-08-2008, 11:52
The Malthusian Growth Model and I will give the growth rate at 1.25% per year (which is slightly higher than current pop growth)

So 6,000,000,000 * 1.25% * 1.25% (to the power of 39000) = our answer

This formula only applies if there are infinite resources available, ie. unlimited amounts of food, water, air and shelter - and all this through the 38k years between now and 41st millennium.

However, this condition does not hold: firstly, before the mankind would have left Terra, the population limits would have been capped by what the planet could supply (notice that in 41st millennium it can provide for a larger population thanks to the tithes).

And since that time, many of the individual worlds or sectors might have reached their limits when it comes to the production of supplies to feed a population.

Lord Raneus
25-08-2008, 13:28
hehehe... foolish tau think they can overwhelm us...

Indeed.

When they find out in the Last Chancers series that there are more humans on one world than in the Tau equivalent of a sector, that was hysterical.

What the Imperium really needs to do is find all the military geniuses they're spawning every generation and fast-track them Ender's Game style.

Lord Malice
25-08-2008, 15:41
40 thousand trillion is the rough answer.

If you visit the old Conclave (http://www.specialist-games.com/inquisitor/forum_b/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=6417&SearchTerms=population) site you can see how that number was reached.

abasio
25-08-2008, 16:02
This formula only applies if there are infinite resources available, ie. unlimited amounts of food, water, air and shelter - and all this through the 38k years between now and 41st millennium.

That formula only applies if the human race increases by 25% every single year, which would be an incredible feat :chrome:

El_Machinae
25-08-2008, 23:59
hehehe... foolish tau think they can overwhelm us...

Give 'em a millenia or two. Most of those humans are engaging in activities which (in the long term) make their planets less valuable to the Imperium (pollution, resource consumption, etc.) since they don't live in a mindset of progress.

Griefbringer
26-08-2008, 08:31
That formula only applies if the human race increases by 25% every single year, which would be an incredible feat :chrome:

Did you spot the % sign on it? Actually it only applies if the human race decreases by 98.75% every year.

Proper equation for 1.25 % annual increase over a number of years would be

[Final population] = [Initial population] * (1 + 0.0125) ^ [number of years]

presuming that the population can grow indefinitely.

Most self-sufficient (ie. no significant export or import of food stuff) planets that have been part of the Imperium for long would have probably reached the limits of their population over the millennia, barring temporary downfalls due to disease, war or natural cataclysms. Recently colonised planets would not have likely yet reached their population limits.

For worlds that are dependent on food imports (eg. hive worlds) the population limit would be a sum of available natural resources and available imports. Should the imports be reduced for some reason (eg. due to warp storm isolating the system) population would plummet.

On worlds being able to export significant amounts of foodstuff (agri-worlds) the population has not rised high enough to consume all the local resources. However, if they do not practice population control they will eventually grow to the limit of their resources and become unable to export material.

Tonberry
26-08-2008, 09:48
Also of note is that

The Malthusian Growth Model is not the only current predicted trend in population. Malthusian theory predicts a population crash due to density dependant factors, i.e the 'pessimist' view, whereas there exists alternative population projection theories. One of these is Cornucopian theory, which assumes that new technology/human ingenuity will overcome any negative density dependant factors, resulting in an exponential population increase avoiding any 'crash', i.e the 'optimistic' view.
Given that the Imperium goes through a 'Golden age of Technology', it can be assumed that Cornucopian theory comes into play, resultuing in a rapid growth of population. Although subsequently, the age of strife and current age of the Imperium seem to be pretty naff at best, with technological innovation non-existant, although I don't think Malthusian theory allows for xenos attack or galaxy wide schism...

Griefbringer
26-08-2008, 10:35
Given that the Imperium goes through a 'Golden age of Technology', it can be assumed that Cornucopian theory comes into play, resultuing in a rapid growth of population.

Notice that the Dark Age of Technology was well in the pre-Imperial days.

However, one aspect to take into account is the interstellar travel: it gives the possibility to establish new colonies and transport parts of the excess population to settle them. (Of course, once the new colonies reach their limits you will need to establish newer colonies at an ever-expanding rate.)

As for the effects of heavy warfare on the population of the Imperium, one could try to factor that as a negative effect to the population growth rate to calculate for the casualties. On the other hand, the authorities might encourage people to have higher birth rates to offset for this and to provide future defenders of the mankind.