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Templar Ben
26-01-2009, 12:32
Hey guys,

It is tax season in the US so that is why I haven't been on in a month or so.

Do you know when the half year results will be released? The financial reports are the best products GW puts out. ;)

Keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow.

Condottiere
26-01-2009, 13:14
I'm told that some corporations' financial reports should receive the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.

Foolish Mortal
26-01-2009, 13:17
Not sure - I think I read somewhere (possibly Warseer) that it's 27/01/09 - but I'm not a financial bod, so I could be (and probably am) wrong.

Old School
26-01-2009, 14:55
Yep, tomorrow!

http://fool.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200901120700103900L.html

Tagis
27-01-2009, 06:38
Interim statement has beeen posted.

http://investor.games-workshop.com/latest_results/Results2009/Interims/default.aspx

Looks like GW have had a successful half-year.

Griefbringer
27-01-2009, 07:02
Looks like they are back into cranking some profit.

Bloodknight
27-01-2009, 07:18
Forgeworld has 29% growth? Wow.

As for the rest: since this is a half year result, I guess that quite a bit of the UK growth can be attributed to Continentals ordering from the UK due to the weak pound.

Korras
27-01-2009, 07:20
Those people looking for evidence about the health of the Hobby we service will take particular comfort from the UK achieving sales growth in all three channels and Forge World’s extremely strong showing (29% sales growth)
so, exactly like we predicted, heh.

blongbling
27-01-2009, 07:24
OMG, dont tell me that GW is doing well..........thats one in the eye for all the naysayers amongst you but im sure that wont stop you from from finding lots of faults

cailus
27-01-2009, 07:50
OMG, dont tell me that GW is doing well..........thats one in the eye for all the naysayers amongst you but im sure that wont stop you from from finding lots of faults


Great results do not equate to great games, just good marketing and business management. It's just like Christina Aguilera selling lots of CD's does not mean she writes or performs good music.

I personally have decided to let my cash flow to Battlefront and GW be damned with their pathetic excuse for a sci-fi games system.

Brother Loki
27-01-2009, 09:27
They don't have a sci-fi games system. They have a space fantasy system. You can tell by the way that electrified boxing gloves are better than guns. Possibly the problem is one of expectation Cailus?

plantagenet
27-01-2009, 09:46
Hmm growth in UK and Forgeword is not natural growth but a knock on effect of the slide of the value of the pound.

ForgeWorlds growth can simply be attributed tp people seeing forgeworld product are now cheaper (if you live outside of UK) and takign the plunge

IJW
27-01-2009, 09:46
They don't have a sci-fi games system. They have a space fantasy system.
Yep. The last science fiction game I can think from GW would be their licensed version of Paranoia, back in the Eighties.

Brandir
27-01-2009, 10:44
This interim report is excellent news for GW. Of course the full report which will include xmas 208 will be significant but the interim clearly shows GW back on the road to profitability.

The market's initial reaction was good - share price up 10% an hour after the interims were released. Back to 2.5% rise by noon but still very good considering the market at the moment.

GW seem to have reduced their costs despite a net increase in shops and they have significantly reduced their debt level - by 33%. Have they finally removed the fat accumulated by the LOTR boom years?

Well done Mark!

blongbling
27-01-2009, 11:41
brandir, this does include Xmas 2008

Vulvol
27-01-2009, 11:49
It doesn't include Christmas, it's the 6 months to 30 November 2008.

Brinnyunlimited
27-01-2009, 12:59
At least all the Warseer doom mongerers won't be able to say that GW is going under, is doomed to failure, etc.

For a few weeks, at least.

blongbling
27-01-2009, 13:13
It doesn't include Christmas, it's the 6 months to 30 November 2008.

true, my bad...assumed it included Xmas

shakespear
27-01-2009, 13:18
I guess its good news. Sales have been falling since 2004 when they peaked. I imagine that has to do with a new edition of 40k driving sales. Next year will be different.

Its an interesting time for GW, never before have they had so much competition for the gamer dollar.

AGC
27-01-2009, 13:56
I wouldn't be so pessimistic. In the UK GW seems back on track, America is growing steadily - slowly but growing none the less, Australasia (in terms of proportion) by quite a bit, Europe though remains a serious worry. They're down in Europe a million € on where they were November the previous year.

I haven't seen any real reason to believe that any one release "did it" more than the effects of exchange rates "did it".

As said though these figures don't include Christmas, and the next set will include the cut in VAT and consequences of the banking crisis. So as usual interesting times ahead.

Don't suppose anyone knows how many bankers children buy from GW?;)

mweaver
27-01-2009, 14:05
Good news. To be honest, except for Mordheim I don't really play the games, but I do buy a lot of the figures. And even if I didn't, I can't see why anyone would root for a miniature company to perform badly.

shakespear
27-01-2009, 14:11
Good news. To be honest, except for Mordheim I don't really play the games, but I do buy a lot of the figures. And even if I didn't, I can't see why anyone would root for a miniature company to perform badly.

I think its because its all anyone will play. Many of us are long timers, burnt out on GW but locally thats the only game people will touch. (for whatever reason)

Sai-Lauren
27-01-2009, 16:49
Yep. The last science fiction game I can think from GW would be their licensed version of Paranoia, back in the Eighties.

Paranoia was produced by West End Games - GW sold it as a UK distributor. GW's last SF games would be the 2000AD tie ins (Dredd RPG, Rogue Trooper etc).

Interesting the figures don't include christmas, there's probably some increase due to weakness in the pound after the summer (especially against the dollar and euro), but that would give maybe 20-30%, not the 30x profits that was announced on the radio this morning as a headline figure to counter the various bad financial news around at the moment.

I'll go for cautiously optimistic for GW's future. My personal feeling was that people would be spending up to christmas, then cut back to absolute minimums this year.

Misfratz
27-01-2009, 17:35
The turnover growth is impressive, albeit flattered by the weak pound, which makes the results difficult to interpret. To be fair to GW they recognise this and have tried some different ways to state their results to account for that. Looking at those...

Revenue growth in dollar sales in the US is good news, though balanced by the bad news from the Continent.

The UK sales figures are flattered by sales across borders. If you check the line "sales by location of customers" you will see that sales in the UK were essentially flat. [16,531 (2008) and 16,577 (2007)]. Given the price differences [?] between the two periods that would indicate a modest fall in unit sales to the UK market. That has to be a long term concern.

However, the report states that the UK saw "sales growth in all three channels", so I assume that UK customers switched from buying off the web to buying in GW and independent stores, and web sales were boosted from overseas.

The main growth in cross-border sales has been from the UK to the Continent, perhaps because the US always imported a lot from Forgeworld? This probably helps to explain some of the difference between Euro and dollar sales growth.

So, I would say that the Continental Europe situation is perhaps not as bad as it would appear for GW, but the UK situation is more of a concern. The US is doing very nicely at the moment. If I were a shareholder I'd be wanting to try and work out unit sales, I suspect that they are up slightly for the company as a whole.

IJW
27-01-2009, 22:33
Paranoia was produced by West End Games - GW sold it as a UK distributor.
The UK hardback version Paranoia 2nd edition was published by GW, under licence from WEG. Note that I'm note claiming that GW wrote it, laid out the book or anything, but they were the UK publishers.

Anyway, several decades since GW published a sci-fi rather than science fantasy game, regardless.

ryntyrr
28-01-2009, 03:28
Wow! This is Fantastic news for GW :D. My hat's off to them. I actually thought they would go into administration. I am very glad that has not happened, Kudos to the old dog!
I guess a large amount of respect from me goes to their retail boys and girls who seem to be on severe reduced staffing levels. Although I am concerned that the report is only up to November, unlike where the UK economy was hit really bad in december with a few chains going into adminstration (october was the first hit the knock on effect usually starts in the 3rd month). What they do need is confidence in the market and hopefully they will get that. However I would recommened any sane investor to sell all their shares in GW (GAW) and to re-invest in early 2010 if they are still around. I would also like to point out as a PP nut that GW are major Gateway of this hobby as their reach is great. So all should hope for GW to surrive in some form or the other as their customer base do leak to other games companies on a large scale at times.
My forecast for the next quarter is going to be that GW will have a very poor result to what extent I do not know. However I think this time around it would be more external economic factors that will hurt them badly. This is mainly due to the fact that their core markets will shrink extensively as the depression worsens, which it will as we in the West have not yet felt the full extent of our over inflated folly. This forecast does not paint a good picture for GW:cries: sorry, in a time where confidence is very much needed for investors who want a good return. However if you are a fanboy buy some shares and support the PLC you love and keep'em afloat.
I hope GW remains around and doesn't crash and burn. Also their survival is very much dependant on their credit line. Fingers crossed all will be ok and everyone can continue to enjoy this monolith of introducing new people into the hobby and delivering some good leakage for the rest of the Gaming compaines.

The end :D

cailus
29-01-2009, 00:50
They don't have a sci-fi games system. They have a space fantasy system. You can tell by the way that electrified boxing gloves are better than guns. Possibly the problem is one of expectation Cailus?


I've been playing this game since 2nd edition. I know what it's about. Besides what's the difference between Sci Fantasy and Sci Fi. Y'know swords were better than lasers in Dune too. Doesn't mean it's not a classic work of Science Fiction (and 40K absolutely plunders Dune for background).

And regardless of it being Space Fantasy or Sci-fi or Fantasy or Western or World War II or the Martha Stewart Prison Escape Game, 5th edition Warhammer 40K is the worst so far in my opinion. Even 3rd edition was better.

It's what happens when the talented game designers leave and are replaced with sychopants and other mindless lackeys.

Nicha11
29-01-2009, 03:09
I've been playing this game since 2nd edition. I know what it's about. Besides what's the difference between Sci Fantasy and Sci Fi. Y'know swords were better than lasers in Dune too. Doesn't mean it's not a classic work of Science Fiction (and 40K absolutely plunders Dune for background).

And regardless of it being Space Fantasy or Sci-fi or Fantasy or Western or World War II or the Martha Stewart Prison Escape Game, 5th edition Warhammer 40K is the worst so far in my opinion. Even 3rd edition was better.

It's what happens when the talented game designers leave and are replaced with sychopants and other mindless lackeys.

Please explain this in greater detail, your point needs to be validated for it not to be insulting to GW staff.

Occulto
29-01-2009, 05:14
Please explain this in greater detail, your point needs to be validated for it not to be insulting to GW staff.

Just do a search for any of his posts since the 5th ed rumours started coming out. :p

Brandir
29-01-2009, 15:08
It seems that the poor European figures in the interim may be due to the Spanish market:

"The interim results to November 2008 reflected good progress. Constant currency
revenue growth was 3.5% with underlying improvements over last year’s restated
numbers in the UK (+5.8%), US (+6.4%) and Asia Pacific (+8.6%) on the same basis.
However, revenue in Europe fell by 4.5%. While Germany was flat on last year and
Italy and France down only 2%, Spain was down 20% at €3.5m. Management has
been replaced in Spain, although we understand it could take 18 months to return
Spain to a growth profile."

JLBeady
29-01-2009, 17:51
Release of 5th Ed and the SM Codex most certainly helped. I imagine that Forge World's margins are even better than the regular product line that they do not have the back stock that the regular GW line tyically has. Bottom line is Forge World must be a cash cow and you have to wonder how much of that profit is FW. Given the reporting period, I don't know how much the pound's decline was a factor, but obviously converting US earnings using a low pound helps the earnings look better.

GW, like any other company will need to continue to excercise extreme fiscal discipline as the recssion deepens in the US and Europe. Will metal and oil prices declining from their historic highs, I imagine that GW's margins will get even better in the near term assuming that GW can maintain sales levels.

Griefbringer
29-01-2009, 18:07
Revenue in Spain down by 20%? That is quite a lot.

Anybody from Spain able to comment on those figures?

Tagis
29-01-2009, 18:14
As far as I am concerned, the best piece of information in the report was that group debt has significantly decreased. The reason given for suspending the dividend was to reduce group debt and so it looks like that aspect is going to plan. Whether this can continue in the same strong vein is debateable, but none the less this report makes much nicer reading than the last few GW have released.

Jim
29-01-2009, 18:34
Well, I was worried for a while about GW, I collect and paint but have not played for a while (but intend to again soon!) and it would be really bad if they went under...

I know this does not mean their problems have disappeared but it must be positive that things are improving.

Jim

Draconian77
29-01-2009, 18:47
~Draconian77 = Genuinely surprised.

It's good news but you really have to wonder about mainland Europe, the last few months(back to 2004 I think) have seen nothing but loss.

Reinholt
29-01-2009, 19:51
Key notes for me:

1 - Growth in the US market (it's a huge market that GW has very poor penetration in - even seizing a sliver of this market for gaming entertainment in general could represent upwards of a 50% jump in GW's sales if they can do it effectively) is a good sign.

2 - Increased gross margin (it is always good to be making more money on what you sell).

Cautionary notes for me:

1 - GW appears to believe they are not bound by this economic cycle, which could bite them on the ass when it comes to things like suppliers of materials going out of business, financing being unavailable, etc. I would have liked to see more caution on this side expressed.

2 - While sales are up, I'd like to see year over year volume before I conclude it's truly a good thing. Fundamental to GW's prospects is having more people play the games. If AoBR or something was selling like mad and they could quantify the number of new players buying it, that is what I would want to see.

Overall, better than I was expecting, but not as good as it could have been. I give it a B.

Bloodknight
29-01-2009, 23:39
GW appears to believe they are not bound by this economic cycle,

Yet I'd say that is exactly what hit Spain. AFAIK they're suffering from quite a depression currently because they were hit hard by the crashing housing and financial markets.

Darnok
29-01-2009, 23:56
~It's good news but you really have to wonder about mainland Europe, the last few months(back to 2004 I think) have seen nothing but loss.

Just have a look at Euro prices. Then have a look at prices in Pounds. Consult an exchange chart. Go figure...

Really, no European buyer with half a brain cell would buy in continental Eurpoe at the moment, apart from really urgent and/or impulse buys. It is just so much cheaper to buy in the UK. With any given amount of money, buying at the right places online can get you basically double the amount of stuff you could buy in a GW store across the street.

javgoro
30-01-2009, 10:33
Yet I'd say that is exactly what hit Spain. AFAIK they're suffering from quite a depression currently because they were hit hard by the crashing housing and financial markets.

Being a Spaniard myself I can only say, for the sake of reference, that a really big chunk of Spanish economy was based on construction and housing speculation. The housing bubble, as we called it, had been growing for a good side of 10 years at least, and these past couple of years, they calculated that a very high percentage (almost 50%, if memory serves correctly) of the housing in certain areas like Madrid was, simply put, empty, because the prices they were demanding for them were ridiculous (whether renting or buying), yet they kept building more and more.

With the biggest building company in Spain, Martinsa-Fadesa, having declared itself bankrupt once the economic turmoil has started, the second biggest being in dire straits (they´re counting on the government to get them out of the red through loans, otherwise they will go into payment suspension), and housing prices plummeting to the floor because nobody is buying at the moment, most companies related to the housing industries are going down. The side effects this is having on our economy are pretty nasty, and the situation right now is rather grim, macro and microeconomics-wise.

While I´m not sure that is the only reason for GW being hit so hard in Spain, a good amount of their losses can be attributed to it, I am sure of that.

Griefbringer
30-01-2009, 10:57
1 - GW appears to believe they are not bound by this economic cycle, which could bite them on the ass when it comes to things like suppliers of materials going out of business, financing being unavailable, etc. I would have liked to see more caution on this side expressed.


I doubt that the raw material suppliers would be an issue - tin and polystyrene are not all that exotic supplies really. Production machinery (namely, maintenance and spare parts) could be more critical, as it is likely to be outsourced and not of generic nature.

On the other end, distribution and retail are also vital links, though on those GW tends to be doing a lot by themselves (distributing plenty of stuff straight to retailers, and doing retailing and direct sales by themselves) so are not totally dependent on outsiders. Of course, the own retail chain can be a bit of a double-edged sword.

Lack of financing would restrict new investments, but then GW probably has enough debt as it is - not perhaps a good time to make new investments on loaned money. Of course, the existing debts can be a slight viability - though it is my understanding that they re-arranged them already last summer to keep the interests in control.

As for the situation in Spain, thanks for the update - I knew that there was some sort of bubble with apartment prices there, but did not know it was that bad.

CaliforniaGamer
30-01-2009, 19:55
Ironically, this economic downturn is actually causing a record interest in WFB in my area. Shops are overflowing, tournaments are packed and leagues are actually having wait lists. I dont know if its sustainable, it may not be but I do think as people have started budgeting their rec $$$ they are spending less on trips, massive computer upgrades to stay current on MMOs, etc and more on efficient hobbying good old PnP Dungeons and Dragons and Warhammer.

Killgore
30-01-2009, 22:04
Ironically, this economic downturn is actually causing a record interest in WFB in my area. Shops are overflowing, tournaments are packed and leagues are actually having wait lists. I dont know if its sustainable, it may not be but I do think as people have started budgeting their rec $$$ they are spending less on trips, massive computer upgrades to stay current on MMOs, etc and more on efficient hobbying good old PnP Dungeons and Dragons and Warhammer.

i think i remember reading a quote from somewhere that during financial hardtimes hobbys such as wargaming always do well as people are more careful with what they buy, and face it wargaming is cheap once you have an army at a reasonable size


i know im gaming more and buying more with my local gaming circle

Reinholt
31-01-2009, 00:08
I concur sales are up. What I'm concerned about is if GW has enough flexibility in their supply chain and cash on hand to weather something like a distributor or supplier going out of business.

I know they have discussed independent retailers going under, but the flip side (suppliers going under) is also possible in a recession. I've already seen a couple of companies go under for reasons related to that already; it never hurts to be prepared and have something of a war chest ready to go when times are bad.

The upside is that if GW can seize on the current economic malaise to get more people involved in the hobby and then retain them, that's a huge potential upside.

byteboy
31-01-2009, 07:39
I keep wondering why GW keeps using paper codexes when you could just pay a smaller fee to download them. This is, after all, the digital age. I would love to have the codex info on my iPhone. I mean, they do this in China or Japan, right?

Either that, or lower codexes across the board while maintaining the costs for the models.

I can tell, now that things are getting worse, you won't be seeing me spend even half as much as I used to for things.

t-tauri
31-01-2009, 08:36
I concur sales are up. What I'm concerned about is if GW has enough flexibility in their supply chain and cash on hand to weather something like a distributor or supplier going out of business.
GW is pretty much it's own supplier and distributor. Manufacturing is done in house using plastic and metal bought in from the market. Printing is outsourced to the lowest bidder. Distribution in the UK and Europe is done by courier/carrier companies. While there are some distributors in the US who carry GW IIRC that's done in parallel with GW's own distribution. They aren't reliant on one supplier or distributor enough to be more than mildly inconvenienced if one went down.

Art Is Resistance
31-01-2009, 09:41
I can't comment on the spanish situation per se, only to say that Robin Dews has just been despatched over there to take over.....

This should be seen as a good news story for GW (the results that is) - in a time when every day there are stories in the media about another shop going bust, GW (seem to be) bucking the trend.

Long may it continue!

Griefbringer
31-01-2009, 10:49
Robin Dews is still working for GW?

Misfratz
31-01-2009, 13:20
I imagine that Forge World's margins are even better than the regular product line that they do not have the back stock that the regular GW line tyically has. Bottom line is Forge World must be a cash cow and you have to wonder how much of that profit is FW.I highly doubt that FW gross margins are as good as the overall ~70% quoted for the company as a whole. Gross margins will be highest for the plastics. Obviously, Forgeworld doesn't make much direct use of the very high overheads of the retail chain, but GW management would obviously argue that ForgeWorld benefits from the advertising indirectly.

My main point is that GWs bottom line would benefit more from a [say] £100k increase in sales of plastic kits than it does from a £100k increase in sales of FW resin kits - very welcome though that is.

Robin Dews - I always understood he went into the management side when he stopped being WD editor yonks ago. Kind of chap I'm glad is still with the company.

Brandir
31-01-2009, 13:33
One has to remember that there is also a symbiotic relationship between the parts of GW. Success in the core games is driven to a certain extent by products with lower profit margins such as Forge World, Black Library and White Dwarf.

One could even suggest that these subsidiaries are in effect marketing measure from GW.

Misfratz
31-01-2009, 13:58
I absolutely agree Brandir, though I would put it a bit differently. The large Forgeworld pieces can certainly act as inspiration when you see them in the hands of other gamers. They also act in a sort of "cult" way by providing lots of different ways to stay connected to the hobby - this is an important function of black library books I would have thought.

thenamelessdead
31-01-2009, 16:19
I don't think the full force of the retail recession has these shores yet. The xmas boost and Jan sales will just be finishing now, so in the next few months I expect to see a few more companies give up the chase. Hopefully GW is niche enough to survive but I can't see it escaping entirely unscathed. All my opinion though and I'm no economics expert.

Misfratz
01-02-2009, 17:30
I don't think the full force of the retail recession has these shores yet. The xmas boost and Jan sales will just be finishing now, so in the next few months I expect to see a few more companies give up the chase. Hopefully GW is niche enough to survive but I can't see it escaping entirely unscathed. All my opinion though and I'm no economics expert.I recommend the following article for those who want to educate themselves about the effect of a recession on consumer spending habits:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/22/recession-cosmetics-lipstick

The crux, for GW, comes down to whether they are seen as "big ticket spending", or as relatively cheap comfort/reward spending.

Naturally, if there's a full-blown depression, with GDP down by 10-20% or more than all bets are off. Otherwise, it's down to GW and whether they can compete.

Lowmans
01-02-2009, 17:38
GW isn't food or fuel but might still do OK.

As they say themselves they're niche and tend to hold up in recession. GW might even prosper a little as there will be downward pressure on retail rents as the High street chains feel the pinch.

Lowmans
01-02-2009, 17:40
thanks Misfratz, good article

yabbadabba
01-02-2009, 17:57
This is definitely a time for GW to prosper. Question is, do they have the balls to do it?

Bregalad
01-02-2009, 18:04
Yes, by raising prices ;)

carlisimo
02-02-2009, 03:54
Spain is that bad - car sales are down by nearly 50%!

I think GW will suffer through the economic downturn with everyone else, but at least they're no longer an unhealthy company going into that downturn. I'm happy for them - they've done a lot of things right in the last year or so and if it pays off then maybe they'll keep doing that.

Used Car Salesman
02-02-2009, 04:30
GW is actually opening a couple stores in South Orange County, where I live. Whether this is because of the affluence of the area, or because GW is actually doing well enough to expand remains to be seen. It still seems a little weird to be opening 3 new stores during a bad recession.

Reinholt
02-02-2009, 05:02
That's the best time to open new stores!

You get lower rent and it's easier to find new employees. I think if GW can maintain a disciplined and focused strategy around expansion in a recession, they are in great shape.

yabbadabba
02-02-2009, 07:40
That's the best time to open new stores!

You get lower rent and it's easier to find new employees. I think if GW can maintain a disciplined and focused strategy around expansion in a recession, they are in great shape.

Thats how they expanded so well during the last recession in the UK. There is no reason why GW can't come out of this downturn smelling of roses from a retail P.o.V

syrme
02-02-2009, 11:11
Spain is that bad - car sales are down by nearly 50%! .

Here in Ireland new car sales are down 66% and our 2 GW stores (Dublin and Blanch.) are among the best prefroming stores in europe.

sliganian
06-02-2009, 19:51
Thats how they expanded so well during the last recession in the UK. There is no reason why GW can't come out of this downturn smelling of roses from a retail P.o.V

You mean, aside from the MASSIVE debt load they've accumlated over the last 5 years? Other than that, yeah, sure, everything is just peachy....

IJW
06-02-2009, 20:08
I thought their bank debts had fallen quite a lot from 2007 to 2008?

Misfratz
07-02-2009, 19:16
I thought their bank debts had fallen quite a lot from 2007 to 2008?GW put all of their profits from the six months reported to November 2008 into paying down their debt. So, yes, that is right.

However, they'd previously built up a lot of debt since the LotR bubble burst. At first, when that bubble burst, they borrowed money to keep on paying a dividend to shareholders. From the point of view of a customer of their's, but not a shareholder, I hope that they don't start paying a dividend until they have paid off all their debt.

warhammergrimace
08-02-2009, 18:21
This year will most likely be a hard year for GW and other companies. The real crunch of the financial crisis hasn't quite hit the UK yet. I personally think we are only currently seeing the beginning of it.

How this will affect GW is anyone guess, I don't see them going bust, but that could happen, depending on how bad the situation goes, if the UK gets as bad Spain then anything is possible. Yet I do think they will feel the pinch this year.

Already one of the stores near me has been told that if sales don't increase then it could be shut down or turned into a scout store, ie only open at weekends.

To assume that this recession won't affect them is being a little hopeful. I think the next set of figures out later in the year will be a little more interesting.

yabbadabba
08-02-2009, 18:36
You mean, aside from the MASSIVE debt load they've accumlated over the last 5 years? Other than that, yeah, sure, everything is just peachy....

Ok, Mr Sarcastic. The debt isn't the problem, it's the ability to pay it back. If GW shows the sales resilience they have in previous downturns then that debt, although a big burden, will be manageable and the company will do fine.

I can say that through my contacts up at GWHQ, the managers up there seem very up beat and there is a good sense of optimism and excitement. I don't always agree with their product decisions but as a business I hope they continue their upward direction.

Templar Ben
16-02-2009, 18:02
Hey everyone. I started a thread and then didn't show back up. That was rude and I am sorry.

While the results were promising there are signs that they haven't turned the corner. Two thirds of the operational profit is due to currency exchange rates.

I noticed the cost of goods sold dropped a good bit. Was that due to the price rise followed by the drop in raw material costs (if you don't remember do a quick search - there was much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth)?

Was the 2 million that they added in long term debt simply a refinance of some of the current or was that tied specifically to the additions in PP&E?

I know I am asking more questions than I am answering but I am hoping someone has really looked into this. As I said, Stateside this is tax season so I haven't really had the opportunity.

lorelorn
17-02-2009, 07:01
I had thought the fall in cost of goods sold was due to the cost reduction program, but maybe I'm wrong. I noticed their profits went up almost exactly the amount the cost reduction program was going to reduece costs by - 3 million.

To me that indicates flat sales, and producing profits by reducing costs, however the cost reduction program is now over and I think GW will be doing very well to keep sales level over the next 12 months.

yabbadabba
17-02-2009, 13:08
Hey everyone. I started a thread and then didn't show back up. That was rude and I am sorry.

Yeah - bad Ben, sit in the naughty corner ;)

Templar Ben
17-02-2009, 13:41
I had thought the fall in cost of goods sold was due to the cost reduction program, but maybe I'm wrong. I noticed their profits went up almost exactly the amount the cost reduction program was going to reduece costs by - 3 million.

To me that indicates flat sales, and producing profits by reducing costs, however the cost reduction program is now over and I think GW will be doing very well to keep sales level over the next 12 months.

Well let's look at it this way. What was the average price increase (metals went up a good bit but there was not an increase in plastics as I recall)? Now if we increase the revenue by that amount and then keep cost of goods the same how does that compare to what they did?

I will go back to the naughty corner now. ;)

Osbad
18-02-2009, 09:17
I posted this on another forum, but it is tangentially relevant here:


Just been completing my usual monthly trawl through the markets for reports, and it struck me again what a great time it is to be in business for the likes of GW and PP. Anyone creating and selling metal models to be honest.

Look at 3 key components of the supply chain.

1/ Tin prices. Back in May they were around $25k/tonne. Now they are down around $10k/tonne. A reduction of 60%.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/chart?chart_primary_ticker=LME:ROSNDWX&chart_time_period=12_month&username=bbc&password=jihoj952&tiny_chart=1&tiny_month_view=1&canvas_colour=000000&primary_chart_colour=cc0000&use_transparency=0&logo_strength=light&plot_colour=ffffff&margin_left=20&margin_bottom=20&co_dimension^width=629&co_dimension^height=190

2/ Delivery costs. Back in July, crude oil peaked at over $140/barrel. Now it is down to the $40/barrel mark. A reduction of 70%.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/chart?chart_primary_ticker=ICEEUR:WBS&chart_time_period=12_month&username=bbc&password=jihoj952&tiny_chart=1&tiny_month_view=1&canvas_colour=000000&primary_chart_colour=cc0000&use_transparency=0&logo_strength=light&plot_colour=ffffff&margin_left=20&margin_bottom=20&co_dimension^width=629&co_dimension^height=190

3/ Everything else. In the UK (haven't got data for US I'm afraid, but I believe there is a very similar picture), RPI has plummeted from 5% in September to 3.1% in December, and is anticipate to go negative!
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45406000/gif/_45406089_uk_inflation3_466gr.gif

Now I know the miniatures business is more complex than just these factors and pricing is more demand-led than supply-led, but these factors were the precise ones quoted by PP as being behind their last price rises - GW in October and PP a few months earlier.

So, I'm thinking what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander!

Of course GW and PP and the like will substantively reduce their prices when hell freezes over. But I think any attempts by them to increase prices again next year should be met with hoots of derision!

warhammergrimace
18-02-2009, 10:00
Yeah, any more price rises would simply be out of order. It would push a lot of people into buying less. I'm building a Harad army for War of the Ring and having palpitations at the cost, because of the cost of metal units, such as half trolls.