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forgottenlor
10-02-2009, 16:48
UNDER THE MATH HAMMER: THE ENGINE OF THE GOD UNDER MISSLE FIRE

“The engine of the god is vulnerable because on the top is a T2 skink priest.”

I’ve seen this quote in many threads on this forum, so let’s put it under the math hammer!
In the 6th edition the skink priest replaced the complete crew of a stegadon, making the beast extremely vulnerable to missle fire. Now that I have the new book in my hands, I see in the 7th edition the skink the priest is one of 5 crew members.

Let’s say the crew is fired upon by elven bolt throwers, which offer one of the worst possible situations as they fire a lot of str 4 shots (which would wound the skinks on 2+) and are piercing (reducing the 2+ save to 4+) How many bolts are need to down the priest?

Lets say the bolt throwers are in close range and hitting on 2+
Lets say the priest is using the portent of warding for the 5+ ward save, but has no other protection.

In this case each hit on the crew (remember 2/3 of the shots hit the stegadon) will wound on a 2+, with a 4+ armour save and a 5+ ward save. Shots hit the priest at first on a 1 in 5.

It will take 7 direct hits on the priest to kill him (7 hits do 1.944 wounds)
Meaning it will take 3.5 shots to kill every crew member.
The first 3.5 shots hit the priest at 20% and kill 1 crew member. (0.7 hits on the priest)
The next 3.5 shots hit the priest at 25% and kill 1 crew member (0.875 hits on the priest, for a total of 1.575 hits)
The next 3.5 shots hit the priest at 33.333% and kill 1 crew member (1.167 hits on the priest, for a total of 2.742 hits)
The next 3.5 shots hit the priest at 50% and kill 1 crew member (1.75 hits on the priest, for a total of 4,492 hits)
An additional 2.5 hits are needed then to kill the priest for a total of 16.5 hits on the crew, meaning that the stegadon has also been hit 33 times and has taken 3.7 wounds. 49.5 hits means 59.4 shots, since shots only hit on a 2+

Reaper bolt throwers fire 6 shots per round meaning 2 bolt throwers need 5 rounds of only shooting at the engine to kill it.
4 bolt throwers still will only kill the engine in round 3, with 2 bolt throwers needing to fire in round 3 to bring it down.

To be honest, that doesn’t seem such awful odds to me. Think of how many of your other troops will survive with all those shots.

Roxors45
10-02-2009, 17:03
Interesting write up there. I agree, on paper it looks like a doomed Priest, but after doing it the conventional way(rolling a crap ton of dice) I found if very hard to even hit the priest let alone wound him. I think he's most vunerable in combat vs a character, but why would you charge a character head on anyway with this thing? If your going to charge with the steg for impact hits I'd totally hit the flank or smaller characterless units.

Dokushin
10-02-2009, 18:58
There's a problem with your calculations, I think -- when shooting at the Steggie with a character, it has a special randomization rule. 1-4 hits steg, 5 hits crew, 6 hits character. So it's more likely than expected for the character to get hit. Give me a sec and I'll run the numbers.

Dokushin
10-02-2009, 19:09
Ok, here's the skinny on shooting at an Engine.

ASSUMING:
Elven repeating bolt throwers at close range, firing S4 AP, against an Engine of the Gods with a Priest character with two wounds, the howdah armor save, and possibly the 5+ ward save, and no other protection.

CONDITIONS:
The Engine is hit on a 2+.
The Priest is then hit on a 6.
The Priest is wounded on a 2+.
The Priest needs a 4+ for his armor save.
The Priest may have a ward save on 5+.


RESULTS:
Without the Ward save, each shot will deal an average of:
(5/6)*(1/6)*(5/6)*(3/6) = .058 wounds, requiring 34.6 shots to kill.
With the Ward save, each shot will deal an average of:
(5/6)*(1/6)*(5/6)*(3/6)*(4/6) = 0.039, requiring 51.8 shots to kill.

(Just as a side note it would take 81 shots to kill the Stegadon, so he doesn't factor in to these calculations.)

Even without the ward, it would take 6 full close-range volleys to kill the priest. That's not bad at all -- as long as there are three or fewer bolt throwers you should be able to neutralize them, and in the meantime your army is unmolested.

Personally, I would be more worried about challenges, which is something we're going to have to work around.

Roxors45
10-02-2009, 20:39
Ok, here's the skinny on shooting at an Engine.

ASSUMING:
Elven repeating bolt throwers at close range, firing S4 AP, against an Engine of the Gods with a Priest character with two wounds, the howdah armor save, and possibly the 5+ ward save, and no other protection.

CONDITIONS:
The Engine is hit on a 2+.
The Priest is then hit on a 6.
The Priest is wounded on a 2+.
The Priest needs a 4+ for his armor save.
The Priest may have a ward save on 5+.


RESULTS:
Without the Ward save, each shot will deal an average of:
(5/6)*(1/6)*(5/6)*(3/6) = .058 wounds, requiring 34.6 shots to kill.
With the Ward save, each shot will deal an average of:
(5/6)*(1/6)*(5/6)*(3/6)*(4/6) = 0.039, requiring 51.8 shots to kill.

(Just as a side note it would take 81 shots to kill the Stegadon, so he doesn't factor in to these calculations.)

Even without the ward, it would take 6 full close-range volleys to kill the priest. That's not bad at all -- as long as there are three or fewer bolt throwers you should be able to neutralize them, and in the meantime your army is unmolested.

Personally, I would be more worried about challenges, which is something we're going to have to work around.


Great math Doku. The heartening thing is that this situation only comes up against 2 RARE army builds (being DE and HE) and I havent seen a build with more than 3 bolt throwers. Usually theres too many other things to take. Even so, with Heavens (no range lightning bolts) and Life (my "Geomancy", Master of Stone FTW) you should be able to take a couple out with just magic.

innerwolf
10-02-2009, 21:13
Anybody thought about Outriders? They can move easily to a close range position due to fast cavalry, then they would hit at 3+ with 15 shots a turn. I get 4 turns of shooting to kill the priest. Adding a Hellblaster would make it easier.
Not to mention a Hammer of Sigmar'ed Outrider Champion with Hochlnad Long Rifle.

ethsar46
10-02-2009, 21:49
Funnily enough, I played a game against the new lizzies last week and killed the skink priest off the EoTG in the 1st turn from 2 O&G bolt throwers. Both hit the priest, nothing like rolling a double 6 twice ^_^

therisnosaurus
10-02-2009, 21:52
Honestly, the biggest weakness of the EOTG is combat. If it gets charged by a character or unit of heavy cavalry, they can allocate many lance attacks directly at the priest. Due to the large base size, a dedicated attack could knock him off fairly easily (let's say 9 attacks, hitting on 3's, wounding on 2's, 4+ save. Averages out as a comfortable kill)

Even smaller, suicide charges such as marauder cav or similar have a good chance of getting at him.

So yeah, shooting, not a big issue. Combat.... especially coz you want that ancient steggy to be crushing things, you'll need to be careful.

Baaltharus
10-02-2009, 21:58
Theres no way a rubbish prayer will get off vs lizardmen and outriders will get melted in seconds by skink lighting even before the slann bothers to add him considerable weight (And I play Empire and I love my outriders).

blackjack
10-02-2009, 21:59
Also watch out of the rule of burning iron, str 6 hit directly against the priest with no armor save.

Volker the Mad Fiddler
11-02-2009, 01:20
Wouldn't template weapons [ex. stone throwers] be a bigger threat? Would the priest get a 'look out sir' roll?

DTimbro
11-02-2009, 02:19
91 points for a unit of 5 WoC horsmen with flails and the mark of Slannesh. Worth every point of that 16 inch charge to get at the skink, kill him, and remove that engine's effects. Sure they die after that charge, but i am willing to trade the 91 points so that my knights can then move to his army without all dieing.

Aunshiva
11-02-2009, 02:51
Bubose snipe.

sulla
11-02-2009, 04:10
Why would elves multiple shoot at the steggy? They would fire single shot. Considering the steggy + priest is about 440pts, that's at least 4 RBTs! Do that maths and the steggy survives a lot less than a single RBT multiple shooting at it.

And that's to say nothing of a large flyer just charging in and killing the priest. I can afford a highborn on a manticore for the price of that priest. I'm willing to bet I could kill him very well in a challenge and still probably win subsequent combats vs the beast too with it's feeble 3 attacks.

But the most important point is that you must make a fair points comparison. If the unit costs 440pts, don't put it up against 100 and trumpet how good it is.:eyebrows:

Roxors45
11-02-2009, 04:37
I dont think the idea was to trumpet it vs inferior point costing models. Lizardmen have their toughest time in the Shooting phase so we wanted to see how bad it would fair there. Sure a Dragon would get to it, but most people have the EoTG flanked by a Slann/TG unit and a few Saurus blocks. He's rarely (and if he is, shame on u) out in the open

vanakenm
11-02-2009, 08:00
This mirror my (not so scientific) experience. Had a fight this week-end versus a "shooty orcs" army (4 stone throwers, 2 gob throwers, lots of arrer boyz), and while the Engine did attract all fire, it survived two turns of heavy shooting (and my opponent aim is nothing short of diabolical), enough for my army to be ready to charge the ennemy line. The 5+ ward save did help, too.

I also think that the real risk is a small fighting hero (any hero in any army can kill the chaman in one turn, it just need some movement tools or mount to get there : 3/4 attack S5 or more will decimate the priest). Ok, the hero could die to the Steg, but that is a fair price to pay...

Juste my 0.02€.

Martin

Embalmed
11-02-2009, 15:18
I also think that the real risk is a small fighting hero (any hero in any army can kill the chaman in one turn, it just need some movement tools or mount to get there : 3/4 attack S5 or more will decimate the priest). Ok, the hero could die to the Steg, but that is a fair price to pay...


Seems a bit pessimistic, on average 7 S 5 attacks are required, 10 with 5+ ward. Of course I'm not arguing that a tough cc character can't kill the priest in one round, but 3-4 S5 attacks have the odds against them.

Foegnasher
11-02-2009, 15:31
Skaven jezzails solve the stegadon problem fairly quickly.

Embalmed
11-02-2009, 15:39
Skaven jezzails solve the stegadon problem fairly quickly.

27 shots from close range do the trick. My opponents rarely take more than a half dozen or so jezzails though so I have no fear.

Foegnasher
11-02-2009, 16:33
27 shots from close range do the trick. My opponents rarely take more than a half dozen or so jezzails though so I have no fear.


in my game tuesday, i brought 12 jezzails (2 units of 6) and along with minimal warplightning support, killed an ancient steggie with teh engine of the gods and a steggie with the lancecaddy in 3 shooting phases.

EndlessBug
11-02-2009, 16:43
Charge it with fast Cav, assuming they pass their terror test the average number of wounds on the priest is:

5 Marauder horsemen with flails = 2 (or just over)
5 Dark Riders = 2 (or just under)
5 Pistolliers = 1.5 (or just under)
5 Ellyrian Reavers = 1.6 (ish)

Or knights, which will usually do mroe damage due to the strength 5+ attacks.

innerwolf
11-02-2009, 17:21
Charge it with fast Cav, assuming they pass their terror test the average number of wounds on the priest is:

5 Marauder horsemen with flails = 2 (or just over)
5 Dark Riders = 2 (or just under)
5 Pistolliers = 1.5 (or just under)
5 Ellyrian Reavers = 1.6 (ish)

Or knights, which will usually do mroe damage due to the strength 5+ attacks.

I think you have something wrong on your maths.

4 marauder horsemen(in contact with the front, Stegadon flanks are going to be protected by units)=>2,66 hits=>2,22 wounds=>1,1 unsaved wounds.

The other light cavalries get even less wounds.
I think you forgot the 2+ save from the howdah.

innerwolf
11-02-2009, 17:25
Seems a bit pessimistic, on average 7 S 5 attacks are required, 10 with 5+ ward. Of course I'm not arguing that a tough cc character can't kill the priest in one round, but 3-4 S5 attacks have the odds against them.

The ward doesn't work in close combat.

Sorry for the double-post.

forgottenlor
11-02-2009, 18:46
There's a problem with your calculations, I think -- when shooting at the Steggie with a character, it has a special randomization rule. 1-4 hits steg, 5 hits crew, 6 hits character. So it's more likely than expected for the character to get hit. Give me a sec and I'll run the numbers.

Somehow I missed that. Thanks for the correction.

Of course the priest is vulnerable in close combat, but he does gain the benefits of a 2+ armour save and being in a stubborn, terror causing unit.

Embalmed
12-02-2009, 08:37
The ward doesn't work in close combat.

Sorry for the double-post.

Ah k, I didn't know that. Course he could still have a 5+ ward, unless the EotG also takes up has magic items allowance ;)