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VaulSC
03-07-2009, 11:36
Ok guys, i'm not a mathematician;

What is the % probability of rolling a double that is NOT a double 1, when rolling three dice? Also, what is this probability for four and five dice rolls?

Additionally, what is the % probability of rolling a double one for three, four and five dice rolling?

-Vaul

EndlessBug
03-07-2009, 13:06
was wrong.

Aenerion
03-07-2009, 13:33
Are you sure of your percentages:

3 dices gives 216 combinations from which 90 are double and 6 are triple.
You remove from that the double 1 (15 in total) and the triple 1.
Giving 80 elligible combinations out of 216.
80/216 = 37% for a double on 3 dices (no double 1)

I'll find a more "mathematical" explanation but I'm not convinced at the moment

Aenerion
03-07-2009, 14:44
I made calculation based on lists. If someone has the "mathematical" answer I'm intersted.

3 dices:
- 37% for double
- 7,4% of miscast

4 dices:
- 72,23% for double
- 13,2% of miscast

Aenerion
03-07-2009, 14:53
5 dices:
- 90,8 % of double
- 19,6% of miscast

EndlessBug
03-07-2009, 15:18
oops you're right, did it in a rush, will have to let someone else tdo it, off home now.

WhiteLion
03-07-2009, 16:11
This is from Ryo over at Ulthuan.net. It's old and I'm not sure it's there anymore, though. It may be more info than you need, but it gives the chance of a successful spell at each target number along with the chance of IR with the book (which still includes meeting the target number):

There is a lot of math behind the scenes on this mini-article, but I won't really bore you with details and just provide you with the results: a chart of casting chances of spells anywhere from 3+ to cast to 12+, with miscasts and irresistable force chances mixed in. Not a bad thing to have in the back of your head when choosing how many dice to allocate for each spell.

For purposes of this chart, IR = irresistable force, S = Success, F = Failure, MC = Miscast



Quote:
Two Dice
Target Casting Level
03+ (02.8%)IR (94.4%)S (00.0%)F (02.8%)MC
04+ (02.8%)IR (88.9%)S (05.6%)F (02.8%)MC
05+ (02.8%)IR (80.6%)S (13.9%)F (02.8%)MC
06+ (02.8%)IR (69.4%)S (25.0%)F (02.8%)MC
07+ (02.8%)IR (55.6%)S (38.9%)F (02.8%)MC
08+ (02.8%)IR (38.9%)S (55.6%)F (02.8%)MC
09+ (02.8%)IR (25.0%)S (69.4%)F (02.8%)MC
10+ (02.8%)IR (13.9%)S (80.6%)F (02.8%)MC
11+ (02.8%)IR (05.6%)S (88.9%)F (02.8%)MC
12+ (02.8%)IR (00.0%)S (94.4%)F (02.8%)MC

Quote:
Two Dice with Book of Hoeth
Target Casting Level
03+ (13.9%)IR (83.3%)S (00.0%)F (02.8%)MC
04+ (13.9%)IR (77.8%)S (05.6%)F (02.8%)MC
05+ (11.1%)IR (72.2%)S (13.9%)F (02.8%)MC
06+ (11.1%)IR (61.1%)S (25.0%)F (02.8%)MC
07+ (08.3%)IR (50.0%)S (38.9%)F (02.8%)MC
08+ (08.3%)IR (33.3%)S (55.6%)F (02.8%)MC
09+ (05.6%)IR (22.2%)S (69.4%)F (02.8%)MC
10+ (05.6%)IR (11.1%)S (80.6%)F (02.8%)MC
11+ (02.8%)IR (05.6%)S (88.9%)F (02.8%)MC
12+ (02.8%)IR (00.0%)S (94.4%)F (02.8%)MC

Quote:
Three Dice
Target Casting Level
03+ (07.4%)IR (85.2%)S (00.0%)F (07.4%)MC
04+ (07.4%)IR (85.2%)S (00.0%)F (07.4%)MC
05+ (07.4%)IR (85.2%)S (00.0%)F (07.4%)MC
06+ (07.4%)IR (83.8%)S (01.4%)F (07.4%)MC
07+ (07.4%)IR (80.6%)S (04.6%)F (07.4%)MC
08+ (07.4%)IR (75.0%)S (10.2%)F (07.4%)MC
09+ (07.4%)IR (66.7%)S (18.5%)F (07.4%)MC
10+ (07.4%)IR (55.1%)S (30.1%)F (07.4%)MC
11+ (07.4%)IR (42.6%)S (42.6%)F (07.4%)MC
12+ (07.4%)IR (30.1%)S (55.1%)F (07.4%)MC

Quote:
Three Dice with Book of Hoeth
Target Casting Level
03+ (37.0%)IR (55.6%)S (00.0%)F (07.4%)MC
04+ (37.0%)IR (55.6%)S (00.0%)F (07.4%)MC
05+ (37.0%)IR (55.6%)S (00.0%)F (07.4%)MC
06+ (35.6%)IR (55.6%)S (01.4%)F (07.4%)MC
07+ (35.2%)IR (52.8%)S (04.6%)F (07.4%)MC
08+ (32.4%)IR (50.0%)S (10.2%)F (07.4%)MC
09+ (29.6%)IR (44.4%)S (18.5%)F (07.4%)MC
10+ (26.4%)IR (36.1%)S (30.1%)F (07.4%)MC
11+ (22.2%)IR (27.8%)S (42.6%)F (07.4%)MC
12+ (18.1%)IR (19.4%)S (55.1%)F (07.4%)MC

Quote:
Four Dice
Target Casting Level
03+ (12.7%)IR (74.1%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
04+ (12.7%)IR (74.1%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
05+ (12.7%)IR (74.1%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
06+ (12.7%)IR (74.1%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
07+ (12.7%)IR (74.1%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
08+ (12.7%)IR (73.8%)S (00.3%)F (13.2%)MC
09+ (12.7%)IR (72.8%)S (01.3%)F (13.2%)MC
10+ (12.7%)IR (70.6%)S (03.5%)F (13.2%)MC
11+ (12.7%)IR (66.7%)S (07.3%)F (13.2%)MC
12+ (12.7%)IR (60.6%)S (13.5%)F (13.2%)MC

Quote:
Four Dice with Book of Hoeth
Target Casting Level
03+ (59.0%)IR (27.8%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
04+ (59.0%)IR (27.8%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
05+ (59.0%)IR (27.8%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
06+ (59.0%)IR (27.8%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
07+ (59.0%)IR (27.8%)S (00.0%)F (13.2%)MC
08+ (58.7%)IR (27.8%)S (00.3%)F (13.2%)MC
09+ (57.7%)IR (27.8%)S (01.3%)F (13.2%)MC
10+ (55.6%)IR (27.8%)S (03.5%)F (13.2%)MC
11+ (53.5%)IR (25.9%)S (07.3%)F (13.2%)MC
12+ (49.2%)IR (24.1%)S (13.5%)F (13.2%)MC