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Avian
27-11-2009, 18:02
I was playing around with Google trends and noticed something interesting.

See this:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22warhammer+40k%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
(or just search "Warhammer 40k" in Google Trends)

Notice the spike during the autumn of 2004? That was when 4th edition 40k was released?
Notice the absence of a similar spike last year when 5th edition 40k was released?

Messiahnide
27-11-2009, 18:27
dawn of war was released in 2004 iirc so that could account for the spike, probably people searching more about the background of the great new rts they just played.

Avian
27-11-2009, 19:40
Dawn of War has a rather different graph:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22dawn+of+war%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

If your reasoning is correct, they should match more closely.

Cane
27-11-2009, 20:08
Definitely due to Dawn of War, their peaks are about the same period.

Gotta love that GW has branched out their IP, hopefully the upcoming Space Marine video game and Ultramarines movie does more of the same.

Wintertooth
27-11-2009, 20:09
The spike falls in exactly the same place, as do smaller peaks in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009, which happen to match up to the first two expansions and the sequel.

That's plenty close enough to suggest a correlation.

It's even clearer if you search for "Warhammer 40000" (i.e. what was actually printed on the box); you get the matching peak for the third expansion in 2008 too.

Avian
27-11-2009, 20:31
Drat, I thought I was onto something.


How 'bout this one?
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22games+workshop%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

ctsteel
27-11-2009, 20:47
for convenience sake you can combine multiple search terms into the same graph, to better see the spike correlation
like so (http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22games+workshop%22%2C+%22warhammer+4000 0%22%2C+%22warhammer+40k%22%2C+%22dawn+of+war%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0)

it definitely seems to match for dawn of war and the other warhammer terms.

here's another one, dark eldar and sisters of battle, to see if they were related to the expansion release:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22dark+eldar%22%2C+%22sisters+of+battle% 22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=1
seems to have regular spikes followed by no activity at all (for sisters anyway). I tried adding in dawn of war as a third option but the volume is so much it just squashes these two completely.

Wintertooth
27-11-2009, 20:53
It would probably be really interesting if Google's records started on the other side of the LOTR bubble (http://www.google.com/trends?q=The+Lord+of+the+Rings&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0), instead of just as it was bursting.

It's not news that they're less successful now than they were in 2004. I'm not sure how closely you can link it to how many people are searching for them on Google, but I suspect the answer is "not very". Certainly very little of that search traffic is being redirected to their main rival:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Privateer+Press%2CGames+Workshop&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Avian
27-11-2009, 21:04
seems to have regular spikes followed by no activity at all (for sisters anyway).
I suspect that it doesn't mean no activity and instead means it's below the cutoff rate (which suggest that it is only just above it otherwise).



It would probably be really interesting if Google's records started on the other side of the LOTR bubble (http://www.google.com/trends?q=The+Lord+of+the+Rings&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0), instead of just as it was bursting.
Doesn't much look like each other:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22The+Lord+of+the+Rings%22%2C+%22games+w orkshop%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0


It's not news that they're less successful now than they were in 2004. I'm not sure how closely you can link it to how many people are searching for them on Google, but I suspect the answer is "not very".
Why is that? You brought up LotR, where the Google trend resembles the popularity of the game fairly well as far as I can tell.


Certainly very little of that search traffic is being redirected to their main rival:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Privateer+Press%2CGames+Workshop&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
I don't think PP is their main rival in anything other than the quite narrow market of sci-fi/fantasy miniature gaming. People who used to spend their money on GW and stopped might just as well (or, as I suspect, more likely) be spending it on xbox games.

decker_cky
27-11-2009, 22:11
Go beasts!

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22beastmen%22%2C+%22space+marines%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Extrapolating from that, beasts will be the most popular army within a matter of months.

Lord Malorne
27-11-2009, 22:30
http://www.google.com/trends?q=warhammer&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

That is quite the spike tanks to Mythic.

Lord Malorne_cky

mrtn
27-11-2009, 22:36
Interesting to see that for Warhammer, the top Region, City and Language are Sweden, Stockholm, and Swedish.

I wonder why.

Bregalad
27-11-2009, 22:38
Conclusion:
Advertising DOES create a noticable growth of interest in GW products. As everyone expected. Even if it is only done by small companies who bought a licence and are left on their own by GW.

Lord Malorne
27-11-2009, 22:47
Advertising works... GW?

Lord Malornelad

lorelorn
27-11-2009, 23:34
Drat, I thought I was onto something.


You are. The something you are into is this:

An expansion release for a 40k computer game is more significant than an new edition release for the 40k miniatures game.


'Significant' here being defined in terms of google traffic. ;) When a new 40k edition is released, google doesn't really notice.

decker_cky
28-11-2009, 00:01
Mostly interesting for blood bowl, which I thought of searching when someone mentioned there was rumours of doing a deluxe blood bowl similar to space hulk. I'm pretty sure the spike is the new computer game.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22blood+bowl%22%2C+mordheim%2C+necromund a%2C+%22battlefleet+gothic%22%2C+%22specialist+gam es%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

http://www.google.com/trends?q="blood+bowl"%2C+"space+hulk"&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

BaloOrk
28-11-2009, 00:02
Interesting to see that for Warhammer, the top Region, City and Language are Sweden, Stockholm, and Swedish.

I wonder why.

I second that... :eyebrows:

Rick Blaine
28-11-2009, 15:02
Why would there be a spike for a new edition of the miniatures game? Presumably people who are aware of the new edition already know where to find info about it.

Chaos and Evil
28-11-2009, 15:20
Certainly very little of that search traffic is being redirected to their main rival:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Privateer+Press%2CGames+Workshop&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Flames of War seems to be getting more hits than Privateer Press:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=flames+of+war%2CGames+Workshop&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Crube
28-11-2009, 15:51
Why would there be a spike for a new edition of the miniatures game? Presumably people who are aware of the new edition already know where to find info about it.

I would agree, to a degree, but people always want more info, and quicker info. Whilst people would go to Warseer (or BolS, or Dakka Dakka or whoever) for their initial info fix, there is then the thought that there may be more out there, hence more searching for places that an individual hasn't visisted before.

Also may be interesting to see how many of these searches relate to people seeking out illegal downloads of new or leaked books...

Avian
28-11-2009, 16:10
Why would there be a spike for a new edition of the miniatures game? Presumably people who are aware of the new edition already know where to find info about it.
Eh? Why would there not be? There was a spike for Dawn of War when the second edition came out. Indeed, a lot of the point of a new edition is to draw in new players. And new players do not start off with a full knowledge of the game.

Check the trends for 'games workshop' on a yearly basis and you will see that interest goes up each year just before Christmas. Why would that be? Presumably because Auntie Ethel was planning what to get people for presents and wanted to find out about these little toy soldiers her nephew wanted.

Obviously the trends are not flat because everybody does NOT already know where to find info about it. It's not rocket wizardry.

Chaos and Evil
28-11-2009, 16:21
Also may be interesting to see how many of these searches relate to people seeking out illegal downloads of new or leaked books...
That's easy:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=warhammer+torrent&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Three notable spikes:

- The largest spike is in late 2008 when 40k 5th edition was released
(actually a double spike, first for the Black Reach booklet, then a second spike for the full rulebook)

- There is a spike in early 2009 (what was released then?)

- The earliest spike is in 2004 (when 40k 4th edition was released).

You can see that a significant ammount more piracy occured for the 5th edition Warhammer 40,000 rulebook release than occured for the 4th edition rulebook release.

You can see that between late 2004 and late 2006 piracy was too low to track. It then rose until mid 2008, after which it has been dropping off again (barring the early 2009 blip). If current trends continue it will soon be too low to track again (occasional spikes excepted).

Lostanddamned
28-11-2009, 18:51
- There is a spike in early 2009 (what was released then?)



in Febuary: Lizardmen.
in May: Imperial Guard

mrtn
30-11-2009, 00:35
You can see that a significant ammount more piracy occured for the 5th edition Warhammer 40,000 rulebook release than occured for the 4th edition rulebook release.

You can see that between late 2004 and late 2006 piracy was too low to track. It then rose until mid 2008, after which it has been dropping off again (barring the early 2009 blip). If current trends continue it will soon be too low to track again (occasional spikes excepted).
I suspect that your use of the search word "torrent" skews the result significantly. I certainly hadn't heard of the torrent technology 5 years ago, and I don't think I'm alone.

Chaos and Evil
30-11-2009, 13:01
I suspect that your use of the search word "torrent" skews the result significantly. I certainly hadn't heard of the torrent technology 5 years ago, and I don't think I'm alone.

The Torrent method is the single most-used method of illegal file dissemination in existence currently... and regardless of growing user awareness it does form a good yardstick by which to measure real world interest in downloading GW books.

This method tracks what people are searching for (and likely downloading) in the real world... and those figures show a generally declining trend of illegal downloads that started about one year ago.

mrtn
30-11-2009, 20:08
You're just adding to my argument. Torrents are huge now. They weren't huge five years ago. If you want to know what happened five years ago, you shouldn't use that search word.

Chaos and Evil
30-11-2009, 20:51
You're just adding to my argument. Torrents are huge now. They weren't huge five years ago. If you want to know what happened five years ago, you shouldn't use that search word.
They really were huge five years ago.

Talk ten years ago, then you'd be talking about kazaa or other p2p networks, but five years ago? That's Torrent territory, really.

decker_cky
30-11-2009, 21:09
Torrents were just catching on 5 years ago.

Chaos and Evil
30-11-2009, 22:01
Torrents were just catching on 5 years ago.
BitTorrent was released in 2001, and the (in)famous Suprnova indexing site went online in 2002.

Again, according to Google:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=kazaa,+limewire,+torrent,+emule

You can see that by late 2004 (over 5 years ago) torrents were more popular in searches than any other notable file sharing system.

sucramreverse
30-11-2009, 23:59
http://www.google.com/trends?q=warhammer+torrent%2C+dawn+of+war+torrent% 2C+40k+torrent&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=1

It's interesting that a lot of that could still account for Dawn of War releases.

Sure, searching "warhammer torrent" might get you the books, but starting on page 3 :rolleyes:. Honestly those trends certainly have a lot more relation to the games, including that spike in 2008 being the same time WAR was released...

Plus there are a lot better sites than Google to use for pirating that have their own search engine, not that I would ever use those :angel:.

Poseidal
01-12-2009, 13:24
Flames of War seems to be getting more hits than Privateer Press:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=flames+of+war%2CGames+Workshop&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Interesting, though I'm not surprised. PP games are more 'red ocean' with GW; it's in the same sort of space as far as content goes (Fantasy/Sci-Fi sorts of settings). The impression I get is it also aims for 'tournament' style gamers, which might limit it's scope further (however, if they create passionate customers then they will do quite well).

Flames of War however, reaches to those gamers who don't have an interest in playing Fantasy games, and their business model makes their products more accessible than other WW2 historical games. The content is WW2, which is very popular (just look at how many people buy WW2 video games), and can be enjoyed by (probably) a wider age range.

Imperius
02-12-2009, 04:39
I know this one guy, who downloaded every single codex, army book, expansion, painting guide, and rulebook made by Gamesworkshop.

He was selling copies for $5 each, and made a profit after printing costs. I didn't buy any (legally I own books I do) but it makes you think that GW could be selling codexes at $10 and rulebooks at $20.....

Commissar Vaughn
02-12-2009, 07:21
I wander if the jump in the 3rd quarter of each year is anything to do with the start of the school year(in the UK at least) and kids who have got some new toys over the summer showing them off to all their friends....

Danteng7
02-12-2009, 09:15
Singapore rank higher than the US? Hmmm...