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soots
14-03-2010, 23:45
If the rocket is fired in the shooting phase, and it has a 4+ chance to go off at the starting of the shooting phase. Does that mean that the skaven have to test for it going off before they throw it (which they should do asap)?

Anyone got the full rules?

musical
14-03-2010, 23:52
The Doomrocket is very stable and don't 'go off' are you thinking of something else? It has a very small chance of misfiring and only if you roll 3 or more 1s.

Ultimate Life Form
15-03-2010, 00:00
It has a very small chance of misfiring and only if you roll 3 or more 1s.

Well the 'smallness' of that chance really depends on the number of dice you throw no? I really wish someone mathematically minded like Avian would present us with a list of misfiring chances for the different amounts of dice...

And the full rules can be found in the 7th Edition Skaven Army Book, available in any LGS near you. Let me tell you though that the 4+ rule has to do with a misfiring event, so your question is obsolete.

soots
15-03-2010, 00:06
Oh ok, that would make it the best magic item in the game by far

S5 large template, no partials, next to no chance of misfire and extremely accurate. I was hoping for a downside, but you basically have to write off your biggest unit each game.

musical
15-03-2010, 00:20
Ok I get you now, you mean if you roll a 6 on the misfire and its a dud, then you roll each turn and on a 4+ it finally explode.

Well the only downside is it hits a (very) random location due to the number of dice you roll it could range from 4-60 inches, but it is very unlikely to blow up or kill your own units.

soots
15-03-2010, 00:25
Its not very random at all, you throw 4 dice. Maybe. Averages comes in to effect.

The more dice, the more accurate it becomes. Its a lot more accurate than most things, and heck of a lot more reliable.

90 pt stone thrower. Small template with partials S4. Chance of misfire. very high chance of scatter.

30 pts doom rocket. large template no partials S5. Next to no chance of misfire. No chance of scatter.

Bargain of the game imo

musical
15-03-2010, 03:03
Its not very random at all, you throw 4 dice. Maybe. Averages comes in to effect.

The more dice, the more accurate it becomes. Its a lot more accurate than most things, and heck of a lot more reliable.

90 pt stone thrower. Small template with partials S4. Chance of misfire. very high chance of scatter.

30 pts doom rocket. large template no partials S5. Next to no chance of misfire. No chance of scatter.

Bargain of the game imo

er............. How can it be more accurate the more dice you throw? Ok it don't scatter and is a large template but it can be out by quite a few inches. So chances are it does nothing, unless you fire it diagonally across the battlefield to increase the chance of hitting something. Its only one use.

LaurentleBete
15-03-2010, 03:49
er............. How can it be more accurate the more dice you throw? Ok it don't scatter and is a large template but it can be out by quite a few inches. So chances are it does nothing, unless you fire it diagonally across the battlefield to increase the chance of hitting something. Its only one use.

The higher the amount of dice you throw, the greater your chances of rolling what would be considered an "average" or close to "average" roll.

Involving maths to do with Normal Graphs and Probability and stuff. 4 Am is waaay too early to actually do the maths though.

Dantès
15-03-2010, 06:19
I believe the average roll on two dice is 7, so you can count on the average roll on 4 dice being around 14. Though in my experience four dice roll 12-16 inches for the doomrocket. I'd never throw more than 4 dice at it, unless I was desperate.

Ultimate Life Form
15-03-2010, 06:58
You know what actually would have been cool; the Doomrocket's strength being equal to the dice rolled. :D

It would represent the rocket gaining additional momentum after launch, and (possibly) reward players who like to go for a little risk!

Of course, the point cost would have to be adjusted...

T10
15-03-2010, 08:35
You know what actually would have been cool; the Doomrocket's strength being equal to the dice rolled. :D

It would represent the rocket gaining additional momentum after launch, and (possibly) reward players who like to go for a little risk!


Yes. When the Soviets found they couldn't build bigger rockets, so they built faster rockets instead. Because the explosive force of the payload is dependent on the speed it's delivered.

Basic physics.

-T10

xragg
15-03-2010, 09:58
The higher the amount of dice you throw, the greater your chances of rolling what would be considered an "average" or close to "average" roll.

Involving maths to do with Normal Graphs and Probability and stuff. 4 Am is waaay too early to actually do the maths though.

Not sure how you support this. The standard deviation gets bigger with every die you add. Higher standard deviations are more unpredictable or uncertain. Its really late here too, so I might be forgeting something.

PeG
15-03-2010, 10:29
I have played against it a few times and the main problem with it is that it can be highly efficient with very little risk during the first couple of turns in the game when units are nicely lined up.
It is also very efficient when it is used with only two dice due to the large template that means that any variation you get is likely to be to small to let the target get away (although it might do less damage than a perfect hit would do).

This means that it is efficient in two situations. The first is then the character carrying it gets teleported into position during the magic phase and then shoots his rocket (this usually brings the cost up to the cost of the item + the cost of an otherwise naked engineerm since he will most likely not get away alive, it is still cheap though). the only way of countering it is to assume that when your opponent is trying to teleport something he is doing something nasty to you and use a few DD.

The second situation is when the enemy are preparing to charge the unit the engineer is hiding in and they can use only a few dice.

T10
15-03-2010, 10:44
It is also very efficient when it is used with only two dice due to the large template that means that any variation you get is likely to be to small to let the target get away (although it might do less damage than a perfect hit would do).


Two dice?

-T10

Griefbringer
15-03-2010, 10:45
The higher the amount of dice you throw, the greater your chances of rolling what would be considered an "average" or close to "average" roll.


This depends on how you define "close to average".

musical
15-03-2010, 16:02
Two dice?

-T10

:shifty: yeah looks like someone has absolutely no idea what they are talking about again..............

Nurgling Chieftain
15-03-2010, 16:25
The more dice you throw the more likely you are to get within a set percentage of the average, but the less likely you are to get within a set number of average. For the Doomrocket, the latter is what counts. Here, I ran some numbers. The 5d6 is a bit fiddly because I couldn't choose a strictly comparable set of target ranges; to make the numbers as comparable as possible I assumed you were firing at 17" rather than 17.5". All numbers, of course, assume that you're guessing range accurately!

4d6:
Misfire = 1.62%
12"-16" = 52.16%
14" = 11.27%

5d6:
Misfire = 3.55%
15"-19" = 47.34%
17" = 10.03%

6d6:
Misfire = 6.23%
19"-23" = 44.12%
21" = 9.28%

Comparable numbers for a mortar:
Misfire = 16.67%
Hit or 2" scatter = 44.44%
Hit = 33.33%

stripsteak
15-03-2010, 17:33
did this quick but i'm pretty sure they are correct


# fail Ave StDev
04 - 01.62% 14.00 03.42
05 - 03.55% 17.50 03.82
06 - 06.23% 21.00 04.18
07 - 09.58% 24.50 04.52
08 - 13.48% 28.00 04.83
09 - 17.83% 31.50 05.12
10 - ~22.5%*



*10d and more interesting numberscoming soon, brute forcing the math and there are a lot of combinations...my computer is getting on in years

Ultimate Life Form
15-03-2010, 18:41
Thanks a lot, stripstreak! :p

My brain may be getting on in years as well, but what was StDev again?

stripsteak
15-03-2010, 19:20
standard deviation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation - basically how far from the average 'most' things will be in. so for 4 dice with an average of 14 and standard deviation of 3.42 'most' results will be between ~11-~17 ie 14+-3.42.

*edit*
more fun with numbers


dice - boom range ave stdev
04d6 - 01.62% 06-24" 14.1" 3.31"
05d6 - 03.55% 08-30" 17.8" 3.63"
06d6 - 06.23% 10-36" 21.4" 3.90"
07d6 - 09.58% 12-42" 25.1" 4.15"
08d6 - 13.48% 14-48" 28.9" 4.37"
09d6 - 17.83% 16-54" 32.7" 4.57"
10d6 - 22.48% 18-60" 36.5" 4.76"

range, ave, stdev are only based on successful shots


dice - (% of hits) (% of all rolls) -> range hit, (% of hits) (% of all rolls) hits within 2.5" of average

04d6 - 69.33% (34.10%) -> 10.8"-17.4", 22.43% (11.03%) within 1" of 14.1"
05d6 - 64.83% (31.26%) -> 14.1"-21.4", 20.80% (10.03%) within 1" of 17.8"
06d6 - 68.35% (32.05%) -> 17.5"-25.3", 19.50% (09.14%) within 1" of 21.4"
07d6 - 65.28% (29.51%) -> 21.0"-29.3", 18.37% (08.30%) within 1" of 25.1"
08d6 - 69.05% (29.87%) -> 24.5"-33.3", 17.79% (07.69%) within 1" of 28.9"
09d6 - 66.75% (27.42%) -> 28.1"-37.3", 17.07% (07.01%) within 1" of 32.7"
10d6 - 70.27% (27.24%) -> 31.7"-41.3", 16.41% (06.36%) within 1" of 36.5"


Ok that should cover any numbers you need to consider when firing this thing. For those hoping for that first turn cross table 60" shot keep in mind it is a 1 in 60million chance :P

T10
15-03-2010, 20:22
:shifty: yeah looks like someone has absolutely no idea what they are talking about again..............

At least he's reduced the chance of misfire to... nothing.

-T10

soots
15-03-2010, 20:51
lol 1.62% chance of misfire for 14" throw. I think dwarfs could learn some tech from these rats.

Played against it a few times and regularely doing 100+ points damage EASY.

It puts holes in units. Dont forget its a **6 Inch diameter** template with NO PARTIALS. It has plenty of room for error. and next to no chance of misfire.

Cambion Daystar
15-03-2010, 21:02
It puts holes in units. Dont forget its a **6 Inch diameter** template with NO PARTIALS. It has plenty of room for error. and next to no chance of misfire.
Actually, it is only a 5" template

Sygerrik
15-03-2010, 23:53
The number of dice argument is a bit fallacious because you don't choose the number in a vacuum. It's all well and good to say that rolling more dice improves your chances of getting close to the average value, but if the target unit is only 10" away you'd be a fool to throw more than 3 dice.

stripsteak
16-03-2010, 02:45
, but if the target unit is only 10" away you'd be a fool to throw more than 3 dice.

:shifty:i'd play it safer with just two :rolleyes:

Nurgling Chieftain
16-03-2010, 03:19
Lol.

Forums need that Facebook feature where instead of commenting on something you can just click "Like" to indicate that you were amused by it. :cool:

Ward.
16-03-2010, 03:55
For those hoping for that first turn cross table 60" shot keep in mind it is a 1 in 60million chance :P

I like those odds. :skull:

soots
16-03-2010, 04:19
i beleive its minimum 4 dice. So you toss it 1st or 2nd turn only (the sooner you throw it the better)

jrodrag
16-03-2010, 05:57
[QUOTE=stripsteak;4485684]standard deviation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation - basically how far from the average 'most' things will be in. so for 4 dice with an average of 14 and standard deviation of 3.42 'most' results will be between ~11-~17 ie 14+-3.42.

Remember as the wiki you linked to stated, 'most' or 95%ish of the time the result will land within TWO standard deviations of the mean. So 65%ish of the time it will be ~11 - ~17 and 95%ish of the time it will be ~7 - ~24. Larger standard deviations can make things really unpredictable.

T10
16-03-2010, 07:10
[QUOTE=stripsteak;4485684]standard deviation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation - basically how far from the average 'most' things will be in. so for 4 dice with an average of 14 and standard deviation of 3.42 'most' results will be between ~11-~17 ie 14+-3.42.

Remember as the wiki you linked to stated, 'most' or 95%ish of the time the result will land within TWO standard deviations of the mean. So 65%ish of the time it will be ~11 - ~17 and 95%ish of the time it will be ~7 - ~24. Larger standard deviations can make things really unpredictable.

Also remember that you are rolling six-sided dice. The statistics may say 14 +/- 3.42. But I've never seen anyone rolling approximately 11...

-T10

musical
16-03-2010, 11:08
[QUOTE=jrodrag;4487309]

Also remember that you are rolling six-sided dice. The statistics may say 14 +/- 3.42. But I've never seen anyone rolling approximately 11...

-T10


Its cool dude, I find that discussion about statistics is very polarised. Either people have no idea what you are talking about and don't really care (no point explaining) or they know eactly what you mean (again no need to explain). Personally I always like math at school but even I find statistics too dull and unrealistic.