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Shas'o Kais
13-04-2010, 14:31
What are the odds that a space marine battleforce will lose to an ork battleforce with the orks only losing two boys and two warbikes.
I beat my space marine friend and tabled him battleforce vs battleforce.

Hunger
13-04-2010, 14:35
Depends on the relative skill of the players, table/scenery set up, deployment, turns - in short every single variable that is inherent in a game of 40k.

Asking 'what are the odds one side will win' is like asking 'what are the odds that a blade of grass on the lawn is the same shade of green as Goblin Green paint?'

Its a certainty, if the conditions are right and impossible if the conditions are wrong.

gwarsh41
13-04-2010, 14:42
What are the odds that a space marine battleforce will lose to an ork battleforce with the orks only losing two boys and two warbikes.
I beat my space marine friend and tabled him battleforce vs battleforce.

Are you talking about the 90USD box that the armies get, AOBR box? or just some armies you made? There are too many factors at play.

If you want to brag though, make a battle rep in the proper forums.

scar face
13-04-2010, 15:08
Very low.

Unless the orks get the first turn, start 1" away and all the marines are clustered together.

scar

The Orange
13-04-2010, 16:36
Uh...maybe you guys missed the point, the OP's bragging, he doesn't really need actually odds.

Good work to you, sometimes things simply work in your favor sometimes they don't. I had a similar situation with my Tau against SoB once, nothing went right for my opponent while everything went well for me.

Shas'o Kais
13-04-2010, 17:10
I am not bragging, I mean some 40k players do math and figure out the odds by dividing up wounds and things.

VonManstein
13-04-2010, 17:31
I am not bragging, I mean some 40k players do math and figure out the odds by dividing up wounds and things.
Dont mix up mathhammer with calculating the odds of a complete battle with thousands and thousands of variables.

don_mondo
13-04-2010, 17:33
Strange things can happen when you play enough games. Over the years I've seen games where one side didn't lose a single model. I've played games where I inflicted more casualties on myself (plasma overheats) than my opponent managed to cause. basically, stuff happens.

AFnord
13-04-2010, 17:54
I am not bragging, I mean some 40k players do math and figure out the odds by dividing up wounds and things.
That is impossible. Warhammer is not simply "I roll, you roll", but rather a rather complex entity. You can not calculate the outcome of a battle trough pure math, instead you need to look at the skill level of the individual players, how well have they done in the past, how well do they do against that particular army type, then you can get an idea about who will win, and by about how much. Of course we need to realize that we are calculating things within a probability interval.

jt.glass
13-04-2010, 19:53
Assuming no houserules, the probability is zero...

Neither battleforce includes any HQs, so both sides are disqualified for fielding illegal army lists!


jt.

megatrons2nd
13-04-2010, 23:54
Assuming no houserules, the probability is zero...

Neither battleforce includes any HQs, so both sides are disqualified for fielding illegal army lists!


jt.

Just build 1 guy out of each box with lots of stuff on it and call it a commander. Not hard to do with a little patience and not caring to spend $15+ for 1 model.

LastManOnEarth
14-04-2010, 00:39
Never tell me the odds.

Firmlog
14-04-2010, 02:43
ok, got done with the calculations. The likely hood of failures to hit and wound with the SM shooting, Ork counter shots, successfull armor saves in CC by orks as they strike after the marines, failed saves by marines. This of course assumes SM will go second. Oh, I also assumed orks would have shoota's instead of CC as shoota's have more strength and only loose one attack in cc.

1/1,974

This is not based on multiple turns of combats but simple total numbers needed to score successfully.

Grubnar
14-04-2010, 18:45
Never tell me the odds.

+1

;)

(messageistooshortaddsomerandonstuff)

WarsmithFerrus
14-04-2010, 22:35
Did u play a scenario or just a straight up battle? What was the amount of terrain and deployment, etc? Post a battle report about it if you can?

MistaGav
14-04-2010, 22:40
A simple post about one mans accomplishments in 40k with an interesting take has once again been debunked by mathhammer and power level of codices...well done *claps*