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jack da greenskin
23-03-2011, 23:15
No, nothing to do with the grimdarkness of 40k :p

Basically, from things I've observed, comments I've read and the general feeling I get, GW has been going downhill for ages.

From what I've heard, less and less GW stores are now hitting their targets. Being wargamers, most of us are reasonably intelligent, and quite a few have jobs that allow moderate disposable income. (Ok, oversimplified, not sticking to my "nerds are successful" stance, but just assume this is true for now).

GW have been raising their prices for a long long time. Since kirby and wells plans have been going ahead, these rises are purely "because they can." So GW are making a higher profit per unit, but potentially selling less.

I've also seen the amount of new comers and kids into the hobby drop in recent years, by a remarkable amount. I know when I was one of the whiney kids in store, all of my mates did it. Now, of the kids the same age in my school, 1 of them does it. This is opposed to about 20 or 30 5 years ago.

As people see the price of models, they are buying from online retailers a lot more. This is good enough for GW, but bad for their stores, even the low cost min/max one man model.

Feel free to pick up on these points, and add your own that I've forgotten to write about in this poorly thought out thread.


What I am proposing is that GW's stores sales will continue to drop, as will their over-all sales as less newcomers come in, and older gamers slowly branch into other wargames. This will lead to the slow closure of one man stores up and down the UK, and eventual recluse from the "gw on every corner" idea. From there, someone will realize the price is what is killing them. They wont lower prices, but will try to freeze. This wont do much to bring people back to the hobby, and without kids buying stuff from streetcorner GWs the company will shrink, slow down the release schedule, until it is sold, liquidated or the world ends, sometime in about 2020.

That's my 10 year prediction, whats yours?

Grimmeth
24-03-2011, 09:49
10 years is a long time to look ahead, anythign could happen in that time.

Share prices dipped earlier this year quite heavily, and while they seem to be stable now they're still lower than they were pre profit warning announcement in Jan. The interesting thing to see will be when sales figures come out in June (and see if they do try another price increase this year.)

blongbling
24-03-2011, 09:58
Ah another "the sky is falling in post"

The actual reality is this:

GW sales are down, the unit prices are up, their overheads costs is down. They have 10m in the bank and are generating large profits at the moment.

The question is what will GW do about it to resolve it. They will restructure and change the UK retail chain which will result in a restructure of how the European chains also look. They will further tie down their indies to make their own stores and web site more attractive and they will exploit their IP more.

In ten years time GW will look like it does today, with more stores and a bigger turnover

Grimmeth
24-03-2011, 10:20
In ten years time GW will look like it does today, with more stores and a bigger turnover

Or they won't, or we'll all have reverted back to savages after some bizarre media induced crazyness that has some vague relation to 2012, or we'll all be worshipping our new Ant Overlords, or...

I'm not hugely knowledgeable in business, but I think 10 years is too far ahead to try to predict, don't most businesses work off 5 year plans? And even then they're deliberately somewhat vague (increase sales in x area for example, rather than exact figures and such)?

nedius
24-03-2011, 10:21
I think that GW, as a luxuary goods supplier, will find growth hard in the current economic climate.

I do worry that they are pricing themselves out of their apparent market of young teens, but then go wander down a toy isle sometime. Those things aren't cheap...

I think that GW have a good number of years in them yet. I think they need to do more to exploit the videogame and film markets, and use that as a platform to make more miniature sales.

xxRavenxx
24-03-2011, 11:20
@Nedius:

With regards to pricing, indeed.

Excluding items on discount here:

Cost of a new book: 15-20.

Cost of a night out where I live: 20-50.

Cost of a new computer game: 40

Petrol: 1.33 per unit (taken from average prices last week, if anyones curious)

Dominos pizza: 14 for a large :P (Sooo expensive.)




Yes GW product is pricey, but so is everything else enjoyable. My mother can remember when 1p got you a bag of sweets :P Inflation happens, and luxury goods normally rise ahead of it.

lanrak
24-03-2011, 11:25
Hi all.
GW plc appear to be trying to make up lost sales by increasing retail prices.
This is fine for a short term measure , while you work out the restructuring -refocusing required to grow your buisness again.

However, I belive GW plc have simply used this as a default action for the last 10 years.
And now the increse in retail prices are detering more new customers than the price rise can compansate for .:eek:
Hence the profit warning and the reported 4% drop in sales volume.

GW plc need to take action to grow thier customer base again, or they will fail long term.

What, (if any thing),they do over the next 2 years is quite critical to the long term future of GW plc.

TTFN

eyescrossed
24-03-2011, 11:38
@Nedius:

With regards to pricing, indeed.

Excluding items on discount here:

Cost of a new book: 15-20.

Cost of a night out where I live: 20-50.

Cost of a new computer game: 40

Petrol: 1.33 per unit (taken from average prices last week, if anyones curious)

Dominos pizza: 14 for a large :P (Sooo expensive.)




Yes GW product is pricey, but so is everything else enjoyable. My mother can remember when 1p got you a bag of sweets :P Inflation happens, and luxury goods normally rise ahead of it.

Holy crap. How much is minimum wage in the UK? (trying to get a comparison)

Achaylus72
24-03-2011, 13:27
@Nedius:

With regards to pricing, indeed.

Excluding items on discount here:

Cost of a new book: 15-20.

Cost of a night out where I live: 20-50.

Cost of a new computer game: 40

Petrol: 1.33 per unit (taken from average prices last week, if anyones curious)

Dominos pizza: 14 for a large :P (Sooo expensive.)





Yes GW product is pricey, but so is everything else enjoyable. My mother can remember when 1p got you a bag of sweets :P Inflation happens, and luxury goods normally rise ahead of it.

We have a Dominos Pizza Joint and they have Family Size (Extra Large) pizzas for $7.95Au and Lunch time Large Pizzas for $5.50Au sux to be you.

blongbling
24-03-2011, 13:31
Holy crap. How much is minimum wage in the UK? (trying to get a comparison)

25k is the average yearly wage though I feel that is slightly high personally. Minimum wage is 5.93

Grimmeth
24-03-2011, 14:59
25k is the average yearly wage though I feel that is slightly high personally. Minimum wage is 5.93

If you take into account people in the south (London Weighting are paid more than other areas, there is a minimum wage but no maximum then it's probably about right.
It does vary heavily from region to region, I remember hearing it was around 18k in the Midlands a couple of years ago.

eldargal
24-03-2011, 15:33
Honestly, these sorts of threads are useless without actual sales volume figures (over the past five years its up in the UK, steady in the US and down dramatically in Europe according to some people in GW I've spoken to, only anecdotal evidence of course, but thats all we have) and as has been pointed out GWs finances are extremely healthy for a luxury goods company at a time of economic downturn. They have the time and money to restructure in whatever fashion is needed over the next ten years, if it is needed at all.



And how much do you pay for GW products?:p

We have a Dominos Pizza Joint and they have Family Size (Extra Large) pizzas for $7.95Au and Lunch time Large Pizzas for $5.50Au sux to be you.

Chaos and Evil
24-03-2011, 15:45
only anecdotal evidence of course, but thats all we have
We do have the annual financial reports that GW publishes, which are much more detailed than your chats with staff. :)

The financials show that:

- After 2005 GW was in trouble, but then it fired half its frontline staff to reduce costs and now it's doing okay
- Revenue has remained roughly static (After inflation), meaning that unit sales are falling but the price increases are compensating for the lost sales

Whether that fall in unit sales is being caused by the price increases, is up for debate. :)

eldargal
24-03-2011, 15:53
Quite, but if what I'm hearing is correct that decline is all in Europe, which leaves the UK and US divisions (at least) viable for the long term.

Regardless of this, GW have the time and money to restructure if they need to. They aren't going anywhere. Hell my brothers have seen predictions of GWs imminent demise since 1986 and I remember people telling me in 1995 when I started that I picked the wrong time because GW wouldn't surive the decade. So call me skeptical but I want to see a bit more than a few whinging fanboys having a hissy fit before I see GW in any kind of trouble. Not aiming this at you, Chaos and Evil, you at least put forward intelligent arguments even if I don't agree with all the inferences.

Chaos and Evil
24-03-2011, 15:59
Quite, but if what I'm hearing is correct that decline is all in Europe, which leaves the UK and US divisions (at least) viable for the long term.
I remember nothing in the financials to indicate that, and sales are generally split up by region (Though the UK business was absorbed into a wider "Europe" label not long ago, which makes more recent Europe/UK comparisons impossible) so it probably would have been remarked upon, considering the depth of analysis put into the financials every time they're reported.

Here are GW's financial reports, if you care to look at the figures yourself:
http://investor.games-workshop.com/latest_results/default.aspx


Not aiming this at you, Chaos and Evil, you at least put forward intelligent arguments even if I don't agree with all the inferences.
It's good that you're not, considering I'm not one of the doom-mongers.

Achaylus72
24-03-2011, 16:01
Honestly, these sorts of threads are useless without actual sales volume figures (over the past five years its up in the UK, steady in the US and down dramatically in Europe according to some people in GW I've spoken to, only anecdotal evidence of course, but thats all we have) and as has been pointed out GWs finances are extremely healthy for a luxury goods company at a time of economic downturn. They have the time and money to restructure in whatever fashion is needed over the next ten years, if it is needed at all.



And how much do you pay for GW products?:p

I go through Maelstrom and save 45% off GW Australian Shelf Prices and have it shipped to me for free

Like tonight just bought a Chaos Terminator Box Set at $41.89 Au after Paypal currency conversion, in Australia GW Australian Shelf Price is $74.00 Au.

I can go through Maelstrom and can buy a box of Chaos Terminators plus a Box of Chaos Space Marines Squad (10) for the price of one box of Chaos Terminators at my local GW shop

To buy both at my local GW shop is $136.00Au

Currently with the Exchange Rate if we paid the same prices as you a box of Chaos Terminators would be here on GW shelves be $44.00Au not $74.00Au meaning you pay 59% of the cost of what we pay, a whopping big difference

eldargal
24-03-2011, 16:09
I've been reading the financials for years (and also had some financial consultants my father knows look at them) but thanks for posting the link, hopefully some of the less informed may look at them and learn something. Oh and I know you aren't a doom monger, I just wanted to make it clear I wasn't referring to you when I was replying to your post.



I remember nothing in the financials to indicate that, and sales are generally split up by region (Though the UK business was absorbed into a wider "Europe" label not long ago, which makes more recent Europe/UK comparisons impossible) so it probably would have been remarked upon, considering the depth of analysis put into the financials every time they're reported.

Here are GW's financial reports, if you care to look at the figures yourself:
http://investor.games-workshop.com/latest_results/default.aspx


It's good that you're not, considering I'm not one of the doom-mongers.

sigur
24-03-2011, 16:15
The advantage of the constant presence of ever-new "doomsday is upon GW"-threads and posting in them is that once it really happens (and I predict that it will within the next 500 years), everyone of us can get all happy and warm inside when finally being able to post "There, I told you.". ;)

_L_
24-03-2011, 16:38
To the answer the question in the thread title.

No.

If anything, I'd say that things for GW are currently looking pretty good. They have manged to get some dramatic cost cotting in place over the last couple of years, they are turning a small, but decent profit in a time of massive economic problems and they have a very healthy IP... which is doing well in the Computer game market.

They have also secured the Hobbit license which will bring in lots of cash over the next few years.

They still have some problems, but I think they are actually quite healthy.

ModelCalamity
24-03-2011, 17:12
That and they seem to be branching out into a lot of new countries. Take it from me this "bad economy" is much a western problem. The Chinese find it quite the opposite....

forthegloryofkazadekrund
24-03-2011, 17:41
The thing for me is there will be the tipping point for GW

They may have started looking into China but while they are doing that they are neglecting the US and AUS player base in pricing and lack of events and losing players. Just how many chinese people actually have the money to get into GW or inclination? as the averge worker is not paid a great deal.

General pricing also is a huge thing as more and more people are either leaving or cutting back thier spending on GW products and will continue to do so with each price rise.

Competetors are also hitting GW sales quite hard exspecially PP as they have exploded since starting, i know a lot of clubs near me have gone from allmost 100% GW down to less than 50% GW and some have literaly down to the odd player of it. There seems to be loads of really good competetors now, why do an empire army at GW when you can buy all the infantry from the Perrys, why buy Orc infantry from GW when you can get them from Mantic or a Chaos Dwarf army or undead, Why buy Dwarf slayers from GW when you can get them from AOW?

Less and less players at gaming clubs, ive seen over the last few years more players leaving and so few coming back into replace them despite best efforts to keep them playing.

ModelCalamity
24-03-2011, 17:55
I think that is nonsense, GW is setup in business units and these look after their own well-being without taking any other regions into account. Also I believe quite a few new American stores were opened this year. And for certain in Europe.

As for the average Chinese, nobody except maybe coca cola is looking at the average Chinese. Did you know that china now boasts the largest number of USD millionaires in the World? It has also one of the fastest growing middle class in the world. Take it from someone who has been living in Asia for the last 4 years, Asia is not what it was 5 years ago.

Finally from the retailers here in Asia I hear their PP sales are dropping and I a few local shops here have been taking the entire line out. Now I am not going to base their entire health on what I see here. But I do see an issue for retailers that want to stock, because of the weird ordering requirements they have. I wouldn't stock them if I run my own store here.

forthegloryofkazadekrund
24-03-2011, 18:17
How is it nonsense?

GW prices are on the rise and will continue to do so

Peoples ability to pay for said items have been seriously reduced in GWs main locations - europe and the US

More and more competators out there making better and cheaper products in line with GWs and more making better game systems like PP and Warlord and better backgrounds

Less sellers around here we have gone from 1 GW and 4 ISs to 1 GW and 1 IS who sell very little and another who only has a handful of items in.

Less players also in the last few years around here more and more players have not been at the gaming clubs, as an example 1 i used to go to has completely closed up due to lack of people and the current one im at has gone from 50 regular people per week down to 10 - if we are lucky due to lack of interest now.

A couple of years ago - before the current financial difficulty - a gaming event in ipswich was organised which GW was asked to attend and they did, that weekend they got 1 sale and that was a tube of glue, they never turned up for the 2nd day

Lord Inquisitor
24-03-2011, 18:22
I think GW will be fine in the long run. Something really catastrophic would have to happen to really end them. That said, I think they're not going in the right direction and I think they're going to run into problems soon.

Their policy of raising prices to counter-act loss of customers seems to be working but obviously this can't go on for ever. Right now, GW's largest asset in the wargaming world is their omnipresence. Just about all the wargaming clubs play one or more of their games, and in the UK, they're close to monopolising the gaming stores. I know players who play 40K just because everyone plays 40K and it's easy to get a game.

Competitors seem to be increasing. Maybe it's just my being aware of them more, but Warmachine was the first real competitor I was aware of and recently others like Flames of War are increasing greatly. Mantic is going from strength to strength mass producing GW-compatible models in a way I've not seen before - sure, I see the odd Reaper fig in WFB armies but never whole units.

Now, assuming increased prices is reducing sales (I realise this is an assumption, but it seems to be true anedotally - I've seen an explosion of mantic figures on the tables and most players cite cost as a major factor), then GW are erroding their main advantage over their competitors - omnipresence. If Flames of War or similar gets popular enough, it'll draw away players that only play GW games because that's what they can get to play and force others to play FoW just because that's what everyone else plays. Not that wargamers are sheep - but if your whole gaming group is playing FoW, who are you going to play 40K with? A game that requires two players needs momentum. GW have that momentum, privateer press have achieved it, FoW certainly have in my area. Others, like Ex Illis, failed and folded not because they had a poor product but they had a short time to get this momentum going and they didn't succeed.

I personally think GW's pricing strategy is foolish. I am likely to spend the same amount on wargaming every month with the occasional spike for new armies or must-have models. High prices just mean less purchases or more likelihood of looking at competitors - at least for existing customers. Of course, GW has always been focussed on new customers, where high prices are good ... as long as the high prices don't put them off altogether or drive them to start with a competitor's game system. Maybe okay in the UK (with GW store saturation) but not elswhere. But on the other hand, GW's recent push for improving their plastics is certainly keeping them ahead in the model game, and this is something that is keeping their head above water as far as I'm concerned.

Cherrystone
24-03-2011, 19:11
@Nedius:


Cost of a night out where I live: 20-50.

.

Blimey, pints must be cheap where you are, or you stay in a Weatherspoons all night ;):)

Jim30
24-03-2011, 20:11
I totally agree on the growth of alternate systems - the two gaming clubs I go to have gone from almost 100% GW, to rarely playing GW. In one Warmahordes is the main game to play now.

GW is still the big daddy, but dangerously for it, other companies with different products are now competing as credible opponents. More importantly they do different areas, so they are not in direct competition with each other for customers - their customers have no problems playing several different versions of games.

Ozorik
24-03-2011, 20:34
They still have time to save themselves but as it is they are doomed. It will take a while to happen though and when it does happen its possible that not much will change for the average GW gamer.

Killgore
24-03-2011, 21:54
I believe the increase in people owning Next generation computer consoles with broadband connection for online gaming to be part of the reason for declining sales of GW products

GW's customer base no longer have to venture outside for interaction with mates, they can just sit at home and chat and game online, where in the past they might have got their socialising done over a game of 40K etc

However now that just about everyone has Broadband and a next gen games console might they return to war gaming in the future?


With the return of Peter Jackson and the Hobbit movie will people want to go into a GW store again?

ModelCalamity
25-03-2011, 04:34
Until we get some real figure of Mantic, PP and FoW sales we can't say much about their real size. However on the grapevine I have heard that PP does about 6million GBP turnover. If hat is true than GW made more profit than PP revenue....

If we look jus at this forum.

Mantic 5 views
PP 4 views
LOTR 7 views
40k 250 views
WFB 180 views

I have ignored GW general and the painting forums for now but you can see similar figures. 2 years ago I did a similar check and the numbers were roughly the same.

To me that is some data which could support my argument. GW is doing fine.
As for the argument that competitors make better models or game systems, that is subjective. I for once don't see FoW as a competitor to GW for myself. This because I couldnt care less about WW2 for modelling. Also I don't have as much fun playing Warmahordes as I do 40k. If you do that's good for you :)

blongbling
25-03-2011, 09:45
sorry, five views on the mantic forums? It's general rumours thread has nearly 75k views?

Chaos and Evil
25-03-2011, 10:09
Checking how many people are viewing a sub forum at any one time, on a GW-skewwing forum, will only tell you that people visiting a GW-skewwing forum like looking at the GW-focused sub-forums, and little more.

Poseidal
25-03-2011, 10:19
It looks to me GW have (wisely) set up a warchest which will give them a buffer to work with during this decline.

They need to figure out what they're doing wrong (which the outside economy has no effect on; a good company will do well regardless of what others are doing).

But they have to do it eventually, short term plans will only get you so far; slimming down and savings in a warchest have their limit.

Their no.1 priority should be getting (and keeping) more customers; shrinking to a more 'upmarket' position is dangerous and risks getting eaten alive.

(when I saw this thread, the first thing I thought of was "Time moving slow, the minutes feel like hours... Flash before my eyes, now it's time to die")

Asuron
25-03-2011, 10:50
Ah another "the sky is falling in post"

The actual reality is this:

GW sales are down, the unit prices are up, their overheads costs is down. They have 10m in the bank and are generating large profits at the moment.

The question is what will GW do about it to resolve it. They will restructure and change the UK retail chain which will result in a restructure of how the European chains also look. They will further tie down their indies to make their own stores and web site more attractive and they will exploit their IP more.

In ten years time GW will look like it does today, with more stores and a bigger turnover

I hope this isn't the mentality they hold , because any companies that refuses to adapt, well they die.
The problems increase gradually over time and then suddenly bam, the company goes under and they sit around wondering why it happened so fast, when in fact the problems were right there but they chose to ignore them because of a perceived dominance on the market.

Reducing shops to one man stores, which has inherent flaws in and of itself, cutting costs and increasing prices only mask the problem for so long. Eventually the problems they saw in 2005 will rear its ugly head again and if they keep following the policies they do now, it will be close to impossible to recover from it

lanrak
25-03-2011, 10:59
Hi all.
Some people seem to think GW will only fail when it is replaced by another behemoth of a multinational corperation.
This is NOT ever going to happen IMO.
But GW plc IS loosing customers to multiple smaller companies that are more engaged with thier customers needs.
And this is what will eventualy drive GWplc of buisness.

Shopping around on the internet, and getting recomendations from reputable forums (like this one ,;).)
Mean most people can acess information about all companies selling similar product, and simply pick whats right for them.

TTFN.

ModelCalamity
25-03-2011, 11:10
sorry, five views on the mantic forums? It's general rumours thread has nearly 75k views?

Just looking at the front page of the forums and not at total views. I was looking at live people viewing.

As said in my post we need real company data to get to real conclusions. Or we need to look at all Wargames forums and compare all views and that would only be representative of people bothering to view forums. Doesn't say anything about the real hobbyists playing/painting right now.

The only thing I like to point out is that it could indicate something which if you can be bothered to find out could be a good base for a hypothesis.

ModelCalamity
25-03-2011, 11:20
Then main point GW has going for them is this

They are in profit not in a loss (substantial profit)
they are in revenue decline but only at a very low percentage
There is very little debt and the only real liabilities are short term so low risk.
There is no competitor that comes close to being able to generate the cash to do a hostile takeover.
Venture capitalists that can get the cash to do a takeover can spend their money on other projects with higher short term returns.

Because of the not so fast decline in revenue and the large cash reserves GW will be able to turn the ship at any time if necessary. So there is a very little chance we will see GW go down any time soon.

Thatnis just what I can see from the numbers in the official statements.

Grimmeth
25-03-2011, 16:15
Then main point GW has going for them is this

They are in profit not in a loss (substantial profit)
they are in revenue decline but only at a very low percentage
There is very little debt and the only real liabilities are short term so low risk.
There is no competitor that comes close to being able to generate the cash to do a hostile takeover.
Venture capitalists that can get the cash to do a takeover can spend their money on other projects with higher short term returns.


I'll take these point by point.
1. This is true, nothing else I can really say.
2. But everything starts somewhere, next batch of figures will be interesting, and shares haven't hit the levels they were at tail end of last year
3. Once again, true, but there haven't been any big risks/projects taken recently that might entice new customers or require significant investment that I can see
4. There are people with the money, and if GW get bigger they're more likely to be noticed and gobbled up - Activision/Blizzard may want to branch out into tabletop gaming, Hasbro have apparently taken some notice in the past etc etc,
5. This is also true, but a company with some forsight could do a lot with the established IP and make a lot of money long term.

However, I'm just taking the opposite side of the argument, I don't really think GW will be bought out, not yet anyway - I think that something needs to change on their part one way or another, or they'll just continually coast along, getting chipped at by smaller companies until their market share gradually disappears.
But that could take years.

MalusCalibur
31-03-2011, 14:07
Personally (and most of this is going to be opinionated) I think that while GW arn't in imminent danger of collapse, if they continue to refuse any change in their approach then yes, in time they will. I am in no position to make any reasonable estimate as to when that would be, but my personal belief is that it won't be as long as some might think.

The facts as they stand are that sales are declining, prices are being increased and are, at the moment, compensating for the sales decline, and that competition is gaining strength to a never seen before extent. GW are also targeting a 10-16yr market with no consideration as to whether they stick with the game(s), which (in my opinion) is a strategy that will not work forever, especially given the economic situation and their own pricing.

Opinion wise, I believe that quality of GW's games and publications is also declining (after all, why bother to spend time and resources trying to design a decent, well-balanced game when most players of it won't collect long enough to use the rules all that much?), and that if it continues, whatever remains of the 'veteran' custom will disappear. It may not consititute much of GW's income any more, but without it literally all they will have is the 'churn and burn' kids, which as I said earlier I don't believe is a strategy that will last.

I won't deny that I'm biased against GW these days, so bear that in mind. But, if things continue the way they are currently going and the 'higher-ups' at GW don't realise what is really damaging their business, then yeah, they'll probably fold at some point.

Ultimate Life Form
31-03-2011, 14:41
It is, at least for me.

GW's prices were harsh to begin with when I started. But I swallowed it. And I also put up with their yearly price rises.

Then came the new kits.

GoldswordsPhoenixguardSteamtank:wtf:

And there we thought 'plastic is cheaper than metal'... nah, it's actually the same price.

BUT they were shiny and new... and I dismissed them as isolated cases. They released Skaven, who show that they are perfectly able to release incredible new models under very fair prices.

And then came the Beastmen debacle - I was slightly interested in Beasts of Chaos but when I saw the new book and GW's apparent 'pay premium for crap' stance I decided there wouldn't be a Beast army for me.

And then some time passed, and I thought all was well again...

Until I was struck by their latest ploy.

Releasing new Savage Orcs - very good idea. Everyone wanted those for years. Great new kit... a bit pricey... but they're new... and stunning. Even bought some.

And then my eyes wandered off to the rest of the army, namely Orc Boyz, and I realized in shock that they had the cheek TO EFFECTIVELY DOUBLE THE PRICE OF THE ARMY'S MAINSTAY UNIT, A MEDIOCRE KIT THAT HAS BEEN AROUND SINCE THE DAYS OF 6th.

And thus I said to myself, ULF, I said, are you going to put up with this again? Are you going to turn the other cheek? Will you suffer the company you supported so much spit in your face and trample you into the dust while you grin like a nutter and hand them one banknnote after the other?

And the answer was, no, I'm not into SM. That does it. I'm outta here.

Currently I'm in the process of rounding up the last few things I wanted, as cheap as possible. After that, no more purchase. Unless they're fairly priced. Which they won't be. I have enough models to keep me busy for years. What happens to GW... well, actually I do no longer care. They did their utmost to push me away and lose me as a customer. Eventually, they succeeded.

Midloo
31-03-2011, 16:19
I won't pretend to have studied GW's financial prospectus - I haven't. But I do head out to my local game stores regularly here in Madison, WI. We're a hotbed for tabletop fun because of the Gary Gygax influence (D&D inventor lived nearby), and the fact that when it's cold as death for 9 months out of the year, what are you going to do beside cuddle up and play games indoors!

What I've noticed is a huge drop in players of GW games. My own group was focused on WHF and LotR and we're lucky to have 2 or 3 people come out for those games now. That's a big change from when we had 8 -10 tables going every week two years ago.

Pricing doesn't have everything to do with it, but it factors in. Add the fact that 8e wasn't completely embraced and there's been a general economic downturn, and you start to have a problem. Privateer Press is a great value for what you get. So are offerings from Spartan Games and Flames of War. These have all seen an uptick in play locally.

I think we wargamers are becoming a bit spoiled for choice. There are some great games out there. GW keeps operating like it's the only show in town. It has great minis and they recognize that. They've stated that their pricing is a result of the fact that no other company produces models of the quality they do. That's true to an extent, but other producers are nipping at their heels by putting out models and rulesets that absolutely have more value for newcomers and faithful fans. I don't think GW are focused enough on those competitors or what they are delivering to their consumers.

GW is right to focus on their IP - It's the best thing they have going for them. But they need to realize that with every 10, 25, 50% raise in prices, they make the value of other mini games that much more apparent. They need to stop turning inward for all their answers and they need to start looking at why other games are gaining ground... because, from what I've seen locally, it's not like there is more money coming into the wargaming hobby in general. The same people are spending the same amounts... they are just spending it outside of GW products more and more.

(and I love Mantics current online ads: "Why pay more?". That's a pretty good question and perfectly plays to their greatest strength)

ChrisIronBrow
31-03-2011, 21:42
And thus I said to myself, ULF, I said, are you going to put up with this again? Are you going to turn the other cheek? Will you suffer the company you supported so much spit in your face and trample you into the dust while you grin like a nutter and hand them one banknnote after the other?

And the answer was, no, I'm not into SM. That does it. I'm outta here.
What happens to GW... well, actually I do no longer care. They did their utmost to push me away and lose me as a customer. Eventually, they succeeded.

This says it all really. I've enjoyed GW products for the better part of a decade, I used to love GW so much I made my living working for them. Now, I no longer care at all.

They've made it clear they don't want me as a customer, I'm just sad it took me so long to figure it out. So, I've been finishing my armies, 15+ of them, and selling them off. I now only purchase minis that are a good value, and I find my money is going to several different companies. I'm having more fun playing toy soldiers than I have in years.

And it's all cause GW finally screwed me once too often.

I'm not sure whether to be angry or grateful. I put up with constantly invalidating my armies. Slayers, Middenheim, 13th company, High elf cav, etc.. but I just can't do it anymore.

The Orange
01-04-2011, 02:39
What seems paradoxical to me is that GW make games that require more then one person to play and which is best enjoyed when several people are playing it. But by increasing the cost they decrease the customer base.

I.e. If Johnny is the only one in his group of friends who can reasonably afford to play the game, well why would he when none of them are going to play with him?

Plus when you have several people enjoying it, they sort of entice each other to keep going with the hobby. On the opposite end, if you've only got one gaming buddy, well it gets boring fast, so why invest much more into it? Case in point, GW priced themselves above what ALL of my friends were willing to pay, they all dropped 40k. I still enjoy painting the occasional 40k mini but I have no reason to build a whole army anymore. My friends took up WarMachine and got me into that, that fed on itself and we all invested in the game, some invested more then other, but we all enjoy it.

The idea that GW can survive on a smaller customer base by charging more when their product relies so heavily on social interaction is just fundamentally flawed IMO. I mean one does not play WoW, Guild Wars, etc. (social games) by themselves right?

So while they may be healthy enough to survive now (and for some time I would suspect), I don't see how something bad won't happen given how detrimental their current plans are to what is the core of their products.

Lucifer216
01-04-2011, 11:53
The Orange: This is something that has always bothered me about their business strategy, particularly given the context of declining disposable income in the UK and probably the US.

BorderKing
01-04-2011, 12:59
What I don't get with GW is how they hope to get new people into buying their products?

Most people I know started playing at 6th , due to the starter sets or coming from Mordheim, or a smaller game. With the starter cost going up less people are tempted into the hobby.

GW in my opinion seems to be loosing it's diversity(lack of attention to specalist games, and the loss of the bits service), while expecting people to pay more, meaning that although people are leaving, there isn't enough people coming into the game to counter them. They have an amazing back catalogue, and selling alot more of their older sculpts would earn them more money, while increasing diversity in the game.

And with more people leaving, more second hand models are for sale, loosing GW sales.

I personally am in the hobby and although the prices are high now, I feel that I can afford them. However, if they increase any more then I doubt I 'll be in the hobby in a few years time.

Midloo
01-04-2011, 13:02
The Orange: This is something that has always bothered me about their business strategy, particularly given the context of declining disposable income in the UK and probably the US.

Not "probably", I and most of my chums in the US aren't doing better now than we were ten years ago!

I think people are starting to see the value in other companies and that's a good thing. Wargaming is a big hobby and I'm glad some smaller developers are seeing growth.

Coasty
04-04-2011, 14:06
I recently went in to a GW shop with the express intention of buying a kit, saw the price, turned on my heels and left.

I've never done that before.

I'm only a few items away from having all the 2nd edition printed material. When that goal is complete I'll never buy another codex.
GW are, as has been stated elsewhere, pushing up their prices to compensate for lost custom. This is foolish in the extreme as there will come a point (very, very soon in the current economic climate) when all but the most die-hard supporters will fold and leave the table. I'm not sure you can support an international company on a customer base consisting entirely of the five people in the world stupid enough to pay 60 for a SM Predator for their ultrasmurfs rather than buy a 20 Tamiya vehicle and paint it blue.

wizbix
07-04-2011, 17:14
I heard from a mate of a mate of a mate that the GW pit cairns division is under emence financial pressure. However I dont know If my mate, or his mate nor his mates mate has even been to the Pit cairn islands. What ever the case it is certain that soon a german company will buy out GW and then sell them off to an Indian company. They will lay of all production staff in the UK and the primeminister will get a very hard time during primeministers question time in the house of commons. :evilgrin:


(there was a point to my sarcasm :) )

unheilig
07-04-2011, 17:50
GW is still turning a profit, just not as high of a percentage as they want to.

GW is obsessed with growth. At some point, they will have to realize that a niche luxury market WILL plateau... When they accept this, they will likely be able to adjust their business model. Sadly, this will be hard to sell to shareholders, who always want more, more, more.

Gw's IP has become an institution. It will always be around. It is too widely developed. For chrissakes, even Battletech won't die!

PsyberWolf
07-04-2011, 19:35
GW is still turning a profit, just not as high of a percentage as they want to.

GW is obsessed with growth. At some point, they will have to realize that a niche luxury market WILL plateau... When they accept this, they will likely be able to adjust their business model. Sadly, this will be hard to sell to shareholders, who always want more, more, more.

Gw's IP has become an institution. It will always be around. It is too widely developed. For chrissakes, even Battletech won't die!

I think just the opposite - GW senior leadership is obsessed with short-sighted gimmicks to incease profit at the expense of long-term growth!

History is littered with companies that were "institutions" that went belly up. I think a pretty close parallel in the states is Blockbuster (movie rentals) - in the course of 10 years it went from a single store to the largest movie rental business in the US. The only problem was they treated their customers with total disdain - charging them exorbident fees. For many there was no where else to go though so people put up with it. Then along came a competitor -Netflix - and in the space of a few years Blockbuster rapidly declined and went bankrupt. Believe me - it can happen to GW too - in fact I think we are already seeing it!

TimLeeson
07-04-2011, 21:14
I can only speak for myself and my friends - but the prices are just too high to the point we've all basicly quit, stuff like matt wards fluff hasnt helped things either. Basicly it's made us form our own company and produce our own game/miniatures - partly due to GW and partly due to there being nothing else out there that appeals to us. I personally dont care about GW anymore, I dont hate them or anything - just indifferent.

wizbix
07-04-2011, 21:19
I think just the opposite - GW senior leadership is obsessed with short-sighted gimmicks to incease profit at the expense of long-term growth!

History is littered with companies that were "institutions" that went belly up. I think a pretty close parallel in the states is Blockbuster (movie rentals) - in the course of 10 years it went from a single store to the largest movie rental business in the US. The only problem was they treated their customers with total disdain - charging them exorbident fees. For many there was no where else to go though so people put up with it. Then along came a competitor -Netflix - and in the space of a few years Blockbuster rapidly declined and went bankrupt. Believe me - it can happen to GW too - in fact I think we are already seeing it!

In my opinion that is an impossible comparison. The format for renting video's changed drasticaly in those ten years - we no longer need to get off our ever increasingly fat arses to go to the store to pick the DVD up. Instead we down load or use our pay per view on our digi boxes. Plus films come out on sky or what ever you subscibe to TV stations sooner than they ever used to - drastically decreasing the wait time. However, if you do want a reasonable comparison (of a sort) GW have made numerous attempts to expand in to the computer game business, which I suppose would be the nearest rival format (Format not game!) Though this negates your last point. I still dont think we are seeing much of any thing apart from hype and hysteria and jumping on band wagons here on warseer.

Llew
07-04-2011, 21:42
It can be argued that GW is facing a similar sea-change in the nature of the business. Where before it could hold a relative monopoly on high-quality fantasy toy soldiers, that has been eroded. GW is facing increasing competition from the sheer number of competitors, the quality of the competitors' miniatures and far more knowledgeable customers than in the past. Join those problems to GW dropping it's relatively inexpensive "lead in" games, compare the prices of the competition and see the cost of starting for Warhammer and it doesn't bode well. Throw in the number of one-man stores which no longer the "GW experience" and it appears GW will have less ability to recruit. Then factor in the change to resin which will alienate some customers, and the ongoing litigation with CHS which has a strong potential (though not a certainty) of harming GW's ability to protect it's unique look and there are far more negative factors they are facing than ever before.

It's unlikely that GW will completely collapse, but it's not at all unreasonable to expect to see GW's stature diminish greatly. I know they have great confidence in their business plan and how it will catapult them back to greatness, but I think it's misguided. They appear to be trying to scramble out of a gravel pit.

Asuron
08-04-2011, 08:14
In my opinion that is an impossible comparison. The format for renting video's changed drasticaly in those ten years - we no longer need to get off our ever increasingly fat arses to go to the store to pick the DVD up. Instead we down load or use our pay per view on our digi boxes. Plus films come out on sky or what ever you subscibe to TV stations sooner than they ever used to - drastically decreasing the wait time. However, if you do want a reasonable comparison (of a sort) GW have made numerous attempts to expand in to the computer game business, which I suppose would be the nearest rival format (Format not game!) Though this negates your last point. I still dont think we are seeing much of any thing apart from hype and hysteria and jumping on band wagons here on warseer.

The field is rapidly changing for miniatures as well
There are so many competitors now, that are actually good that the possibly of them slowly eating away GWS base is a very likely scenario

As for expanding into the video game business?
Not really, they've just licensed their IP out, of which only Relic has done good work with
To be honest I'm not sure why they have't tried to license out Fantasy to the guys who do the Total War series, its pretty much the perfect game style for it

reds8n
08-04-2011, 09:20
Games Workshop Group PLC

IMS, TRADING UPDATE AND DIVIDEND
For the period 29 November 2010 to 3 April 2011


For immediate release 8 April 2011

Games Workshop Group PLC today issues the following interim management statement for the period 29 November 2010 to 3 April 2011. In the four months to 3 April 2011 the Group has continued to deliver strong gross margins and cost savings.

The Group announces that pre-tax profits in respect of the year to 29 May 2011 are likely to be ahead of current market expectations.

Cash generation remains healthy. As a result, and in line with the Company's dividend policy to distribute to shareholders truly surplus cash (as set out in the Company's 2010 annual report) the board has today declared a dividend of 20p per share. This will be paid on 25 May 2011 for shareholders on the register at 26 April 2011.



http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB0003718474GBGBXSSQ3


(Reuters) - Games Workshop Group Plc , a retailer of toy soldiers, forecast full-year pretax profit ahead of current market estimates, helped by strong gross margins and cost savings.

The retailer, which licences The Lord of the Rings tabletop battle game, said cash generation remained healthy and set a dividend of 20 pence per share.

Three analysts on average were expecting the company to post a full-year pretax profit of 12.2 million pounds ($19.7 million), according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

In January, the company said its pretax profit for the year to May 29 was likely to be below market expectations due to weak sales volumes. [ID:nLDE70408P]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/08/gamesworkshop-idUSL3E7F80Y320110408


so.. profits above expectation then.


.. so.. not the beginning of the end or anything then, now anyway eh ? :eyebrows:

Night Bearer
08-04-2011, 13:44
Meh,

I think people confuse the normal lifespan of a gamer with the greater lifecycle of a company like GW. I came in with RT/2nd, and frankly 40k as a playing experience has not been attractive to me in the last 12 or so years. Still played WHFB, but I moved on from 40k.

And now, I've moved on from WHFB as well. The cost and prep work are no longer justified by what I get out of the game. I don't blame GW for that, any game system that sticks for years on end is going to change, it just does. Some people keep enjoying it, new people pick it up, and some people like myself eventually find that it just doesn't have the same hold as it used to.

In other words, me leaving the GW side of the hobby after 18-ish years isn't an indictment on GW. It simply means I no longer have interest in their products. But I can go to my local store and see the next crop of 40k and WHFB players. Maybe the overall #s of new players are up or down or the same, I won't pretend to know, but they're there, and they seem to enjoy these editions of the games as much as I enjoyed RT/2nd.

It is what it is.

Ozorik
08-04-2011, 19:39
.. so.. not the beginning of the end or anything then, now anyway eh ? :eyebrows:

Not yet, but it seems that their latest financial statement is very similar to the norm. GW need to do much better than the norm if they are to have the market share that they do now in a decades time.

Ronin[XiC]
08-04-2011, 20:36
"Games Workshop Group Plc , a retailer of toy soldiers"
how dares reuters!!!

PsyberWolf
09-04-2011, 02:14
Well it's pretty much the same story - increase in profits through cost cutting. Reading between the lines revenue (growth) will be flat.

Demrush
09-04-2011, 03:17
BBeing wargamers, most of us are reasonably intelligent, and quite a few have jobs that allow moderate disposable income. (Ok, oversimplified, not sticking to my "nerds are successful" stance, but just assume this is true for now).



Not to go off topic but I beg to differ on this statement.....Maybe its different where you live but a large portion of wargamers I know here are on the lower end of the financial spectrum...As for being smart...Depends on what you define as smart so I won't argue with you on that point.

jack da greenskin
09-04-2011, 06:22
Not to go off topic but I beg to differ on this statement.....Maybe its different where you live but a large portion of wargamers I know here are on the lower end of the financial spectrum...As for being smart...Depends on what you define as smart so I won't argue with you on that point.

In my experience. In the UK wargaming scene anyway. I don't think I've seen a single stupid veteran, maybe not with a great high flying job, but not one of them has been stupid. I don't think warhammer or wargaming in general is for stupid people, there's too much tactical and in depth thought. (well not with 40k ;) but you get what I mean :p )

Ozorik
09-04-2011, 08:15
In my experience. In the UK wargaming scene anyway. I don't think I've seen a single stupid veteran, maybe not with a great high flying job, but not one of them has been stupid. I don't think warhammer or wargaming in general is for stupid people, there's too much tactical and in depth thought. (well not with 40k ;) but you get what I mean :p )

You aren't looking very hard are you :p
Even historicals have their share of muppets and they are games that require a lot more thought.

Coasty
12-04-2011, 07:48
I don't think warhammer or wargaming in general is for stupid people....

Few things are meant to be for stupid people (apart from ITV), but, like the Martians, 'still they come'.

jack da greenskin
12-04-2011, 19:23
Few things are meant to be for stupid people (apart from ITV),

Well said that man.

ModelCalamity
13-04-2011, 17:34
Wow it only took 4 pages For this topic to go off-topic.

You reckon this will be "the beginning of the end" of these imo silly topics? :)

Col. Tartleton
15-04-2011, 20:44
I think the degeneration is more in the heads of the critics than the actual material, but I can't say my attitude isn't shifting back toward fantasy...

Storm of Magic looks interesting, Forgeworld is finally releasing some incredible fantasy stuff now, 8th edition is a pretty solid rule set, the miniature quality is miles ahead of where it was just a few years ago...

As 40k enters its "Time of Ending" perhaps Warhammer might return to preeminence?

Harry
16-04-2011, 09:23
As 40k enters its "Time of Ending" perhaps Warhammer might return to preeminence?:D

I knew 40K was just a fad and if I held my ground long enough ....

Finally the one true game comes out on top.

You know how you know who won a fight ... you wait till the end .... the guy still dancing around is the winner. :D

lanrak
18-04-2011, 12:26
Hi all.
Do I spy Ronnie at Mantic Games polishing his dancing shoes....:D

TTFN

Scammel
18-04-2011, 12:33
I haven't seen Mantic full stop, aside from the odd link that comes up in passing on sites like this - and that's why I think in the UK at least that GW's competition will have minimal impact for a good while. Other companies will be hard-pressed to overcome that big black sign with the red and yellow lettering.

lanrak
19-04-2011, 09:57
Hi Scammel.
Mr multinational corperation, just tells every one they should like what they make, and feel lucky thet they are allowed to buy thier products at super inflated prices.

Mr passionate hobbiest, listens to his customers and tries his best to deliver the best value for money possible to drive interest and long term growth.

When the end actualy comes, who do you think will be dancing around?

The end is a long way off, but I simply cannot see GW plc in its current form being there!
Where as lots of smaller companies like Mantic ,will be. ;)

TTFN

Scammel
19-04-2011, 10:30
Mr passionate hobbiest, listens to his customers and tries his best to deliver the best value for money possible to drive interest and long term growth.

Mr passionate hobbyist and all of his chums, however virtuous they may be, are non-entities to the majority of UK gamers. Mr passionate hobbyist is not on the high street of virtually every large town or city, Mr passionate hobbyist doesn't have a magazine with big gold lettering and a colourful picture in several big newsagents, Mr passionate hobbyist does virtually nothing in regards to advertising compared to GW. The lemonade on my stall might be far cheaper and tastier compared to that of the chain supermarket, but it's never going to get beyond my street unless I get out there a hell of a lot more.


Mr multinational corperation, just tells every one they should like what they make, and feel lucky thet they are allowed to buy thier products at super inflated prices.

Dear lord, a company that tells consumers to buy its' products? At the end of the day, GW still produces vast quantities of some of the best models in the industry and fun rulesets to go with them. Yes, price hikes are hard to stomach (22.50 for 10 CSM?!), but as long as the stuff they come out with is good, it'll get bought (yes, even the CSM).

FabricatorGeneralMike
19-04-2011, 23:30
Mr passionate hobbyist and all of his chums, however virtuous they may be, are non-entities to the majority of UK gamers. Mr passionate hobbyist is not on the high street of virtually every large town or city, Mr passionate hobbyist doesn't have a magazine with big gold lettering and a colourful picture in several big newsagents, Mr passionate hobbyist does virtually nothing in regards to advertising compared to GW. The lemonade on my stall might be far cheaper and tastier compared to that of the chain supermarket, but it's never going to get beyond my street unless I get out there a hell of a lot more.



Dear lord, a company that tells consumers to buy its' products? At the end of the day, GW still produces vast quantities of some of the best models in the industry and fun rulesets to go with them. Yes, price hikes are hard to stomach (22.50 for 10 CSM?!), but as long as the stuff they come out with is good, it'll get bought (yes, even the CSM).


And this is where you are wrong. Full Stop.

You might have the best lemonade in the world, it might be cheeper then wal-marts version, and with this new fangled gadget called the 'internet' you can flood the market with cheep advertising and if your product is good enough people will see the value in it and buy it. Word of mouth is a good thing, GW used to do it and because it was positive WoM it was good for business.

People will only buy what they can afford. Money is much tighter these days so most people shop around and look for the best value for they money. 22.50 for 10 CSM, if I could pick that up from a online retailer for 10.25 but have to wait a week for it to be shipped here I would in a heart beat. I don't think that paying a 100% convience tax ( ie the GW store) is worth it. Then again I don't think any GW product is worth full retail right now ( except for BL books).

Then again this is just me and long ago I reached my 'screw these guys and their price hikes crap'. I buy second hand so I don't have to support GW directly. I would rather help out some one who made the mistake of getting into this 'GW hobby' tm without knowing what he was getting himself into.

Khorney Joke
19-04-2011, 23:37
Few things are meant to be for stupid people (apart from ITV), but, like the Martians, 'still they come'.

Honestly, the chances of that happening is a million to one. But still, they cooo-ooome.

*violin stabbing*

On a serious note, simple logic dictates that eventually all of the price hikes GW keeps performing in order to make cash out of the diminishing fanbase will fail, and that mathematically, with the going trend, GW will simply cease to be.

Scammel
20-04-2011, 07:23
And this is where you are wrong. Full Stop.

Oh, that's nice to know.


You might have the best lemonade in the world, it might be cheeper then wal-marts version, and with this new fangled gadget called the 'internet' you can flood the market with cheep advertising and if your product is good enough people will see the value in it and buy it. Word of mouth is a good thing, GW used to do it and because it was positive WoM it was good for business.

Hmm, not quite sure of your definition of 'flood'. I'd call it 'one or two little banner ads on sites that already dedicated to wargaming and tend to be frequented more by veterans than mainstream GW customers'. It simply doesn't compare to the advertising a physical shop on every major high street provides, what with the big black signs, the posters, the friendly staff, the cabinets and enough visibility to see everyone inside having a good time. Word of mouth works for GW too, just because they have other methods of getting their products known doesn't mean it just stopped happening. In fact, with more people being exposed to the company through the stores, WoM spreads quicker.

Anyway, if GW did go under, with just a handful of men.... we'll start all over agaaaaiiiin!!

eldargal
20-04-2011, 08:52
Or, they will drop prices and cut costs like most companies do when faced with a similar situation. You also assume a downward trend will continue, whereas it may well bottom out, or reverse. Might want to revisit that whole logic thing.


Honestly, the chances of that happening is a million to one. But still, they cooo-ooome.

*violin stabbing*

On a serious note, simple logic dictates that eventually all of the price hikes GW keeps performing in order to make cash out of the diminishing fanbase will fail, and that mathematically, with the going trend, GW will simply cease to be.

lanrak
20-04-2011, 11:14
Hi eldargal.
I agree GW plc has to change things quite dramaticaly to survive long term.
(Not increasing prices over inflation year on year IS a major change for GWplc!:D.)

However, the current managment appear hesitant to make the sort of radical change needed.

And there comes a time where cost cutting has gone as far as it can, and then it becomes deterimental to the buisness to continiue.
(Eg reduction of staffing levels negativley effects customer servive or quality.)

With the majority of GW plc product being used in a social environment, they need 'grouped customer base' to perpetuate interest.
(Positive word of mouth is a massive boon to any buisness.Just ask Ronnie at Mantic games ;).)

So constantly raiseing prices over inflation to make up for lost sales volumes,long term accelerates the drop in sales volumes!

As each price hike pushes thier products out of the reach of more potential customers, and the dwindeling player base exaserbates the drop in sales...
Eg a group of 10 gamers all playing GW games, but every year 2 players drop out due to spiraling expences.After 3 years the remianing 4 players give up on GW games and just play the games thier buddies play , as its much easier to do so...

You may personaly be able to afford to pay GW plcs prices , but if most of you gaming friends are priced out , and play another games you may follow thier lead.

I cannot see a fast return to growth in the world economy either.

I realy hope GW plc management have the will make the changes necisary
to secure long term growth.


TTFN

yabbadabba
20-04-2011, 12:25
I realy hope GW plc management have the will make the changes necisary
to secure long term growth. Like the same will they have shown so far in sticking to their plans?

I spoke to Ronnie at Salute. I would say he is deliberately targetting GW as a way of growing his business. So I would anticipate Mantic's releases will mirror GWs range to an extent, especially lines that GW previously had but haven't updated, and include their versions of whatever they can get away with making.