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View Full Version : Fine Cast a hint of what future updated kits are?



magnum12
27-06-2011, 03:27
After looking at the fine cast kits, I think I might of stumbled unto something big in regards to what are likely model releases for some of the army books after SoB, Necron, and Tau (based on current intel, the next two books are likely Eldar and Chaos).

Source of predictions: Research into the fine cast kits and deductive reasoning based on research.

Logic: Models that are in fine cast are most likely not going to be updated for near future army books as it would be rather pointless to redo a model only to do a new one so soon. Could mean that new versions of the non updated metal models are one the way relatively soon.

Caveat: Any fine cast wave 3 would completely put a monkey wrench in any predictions in this thread.

Data: The following models for likely near army books got fine cast treatment. Note that Sisters and Necron did not get ANY fine cast models. Also means that the rumored Tyranid wave 2 will NOT get a new Hive Tyrant.

Black Templar: Sword Brethern Squad, Emperor's Champion

Tau: Ethereal, Sniper Drone Team

Eldar: Avatar, Farseer/Warlocks, Autrach, Striking Scorpians, Harlequins (Wave 2), Howling Banshees (Wave 2), Warp Spiders (Wave 2), Rangers, Dark Reapers.

Chaos (includes Daemons and Space Marines): Skull Taker, Blood Thirster (Wave 2), Lord Of Change (Wave 2), Flamers, The Changling (Wave 2), Abbadon, Huron Black Heart, Nurgle Daemon Prince, Plague Marines, Raptors.

Conclusion based on findings: Based on recent model redos, I suspect that via knowing what is not getting a new model, it becomes possible to determine what units are likely to get a model update soon. Note that any predictions that come as a result of my research into the fine cast models also comes from other pre-established precedents.

Tau: Vespids, Broad Sides (hybrid kit precedent). Due to precedent set by GK, Kroot stuff may be merged into one box and Pathfinder may be merged into a Fire Warriors recut.

Eldar: Special Characters (fine cast), Fire Dragons (plastic), Storm Guardians merged into Guardian recut (based on GK precedent), Shining Spears (plastic, hybrid kit precedent), Swooping Hawks (plastic, based on Scourges).

Chaos: Chosen and Havoks part of Chaos Space Marine recut (GK precedent), Special characters (fine cast), Chaos Dreadnaught (plastic), Noise Marines (plastic, hybrid kit), Thousand Sons (plastic, hybrid kit IIRC), Obliterator (plastic), Plague Bearers (plastic, later than Space Marine stuff), Great Unclean One (later than Space Marine stuff), Keeper of Secrets (later than Space Marine Stuff.

SkyNet747
27-06-2011, 03:37
What you say is possible, but it's also possible that they're just waiting to release the finecast models with a codex, even if nothing has changed from the metal models. It would generate interest in the models (and the army). To me, this is all just speculation, no matter what position you take.

Deductive reasoning only works if you have all the facts.

eclipsed
27-06-2011, 04:06
So is this all just your speculation? Or do you have any form of GW staff telling you this? (I also noticed there were no Necron or SoB finecasts)

i mean no offense if its just your own theory.

magnum12
27-06-2011, 04:26
I see what you're saying, though deductive reasoning is judged by validity and soundness rather than being right or wrong (it is what the scientific method is derived from). Deductive reasoning takes current facts and data and tries to ascertain the most likely outcome based on said information. The reasoning is then refined when new facts come into play or scrapped if shown to be flawed.

The thing that strikes me as odd is the part about the Sisters and Necron getting no new models in fine cast. So far, we've only found out about the new plastic kits for sisters and Necrons (except the lord which is fine cast), and it seems that nearly the whole army on both fronts is getting completely reworked. With GW trying to get rid of metal (especially in hybrid kits) post haste, it seems odd not to update all the models in one big burst unless there's plans to release updated models for armies coming soon in the pipe line.

This phenomenon I've been looking at isn't unique to 40k either, as Ogre Kingdoms didn't get any fine cast models either (likely due to new army book coming soon).

massey
27-06-2011, 05:21
Well, I think there are two problems with this. The first is that GW isn't "redoing" their Finecast models. The Finecast process is basically that they found a resin that works in their old molds. So they take the same machinery, the same molds, and they just pour in resin instead of pewter. It's zero amount of more work. It's not like "oh, we went to all this trouble to make this guy in Finecast, so let's hold off on a plastic model".

Second, GW could very well be waiting to release new models in Finecast with the new codex release. My understanding is that the reason some models haven't gone to Finecast yet is that GW still has a big stock of the metals. If something were due to get a plastic release, they probably won't introduce the thing in Finecast, unless they have to do another production run. But if they've got 10,000 boxes of metal Fire Dragons sitting in the warehouse, they could just as easily sit on them until they run out. Then they determine how long until the new codex release, and gauge whether it's worth it to make some more until the new plastic set is released.

There's really not enough information because we don't know what GW's current inventory is.

Dangersaurus
27-06-2011, 06:06
Well, I think there are two problems with this. The first is that GW isn't "redoing" their Finecast models. The Finecast process is basically that they found a resin that works in their old molds. So they take the same machinery, the same molds, and they just pour in resin instead of pewter. It's zero amount of more work. It's not like "oh, we went to all this trouble to make this guy in Finecast, so let's hold off on a plastic model".

From everything I've read, this is not true. They made all new molds from the original masters.


Second, GW could very well be waiting to release new models in Finecast with the new codex release. My understanding is that the reason some models haven't gone to Finecast yet is that GW still has a big stock of the metals. If something were due to get a plastic release, they probably won't introduce the thing in Finecast, unless they have to do another production run. But if they've got 10,000 boxes of metal Fire Dragons sitting in the warehouse, they could just as easily sit on them until they run out. Then they determine how long until the new codex release, and gauge whether it's worth it to make some more until the new plastic set is released.

There's really not enough information because we don't know what GW's current inventory is.

That, however, I pretty much agree with. Without knowing profit margins, stock, and sell-through rates on the models, all we can do is guess.

keatsmeister
27-06-2011, 06:17
My understanding is that the reason some models haven't gone to Finecast yet is that GW still has a big stock of the metals. If something were due to get a plastic release, they probably won't introduce the thing in Finecast, unless they have to do another production run. But if they've got 10,000 boxes of metal Fire Dragons sitting in the warehouse, they could just as easily sit on them until they run out. Then they determine how long until the new codex release, and gauge whether it's worth it to make some more until the new plastic set is released.

There's really not enough information because we don't know what GW's current inventory is.

From what I can interpret, this would be the main reason. Like it or not, GW is a financial beast, and has to meet financial reason for the benefit of its investors, suppliers, and various other stakeholders (including us mere mortal gamers). A company that sits on thousands of s worth of stock, whatever the reason may be, is a company that is devaluing the stock by allowing it to depreciate without the fair opportunity to recoup the investment, and in turn devalues the company. The retail philosophy here is that a product, for example metal Fire Dragons is only worth X if they actually manage to sell it. Unsold, it is worth little more than scrap value. As such, GW will have to clear the vast majority of its metal stockholdings on the various lines before it can consider allowing the replacements to enter the retail distribution chain.

To be honest, I'd be happy enough if they just focussed on the upcoming stuff, allow the existing metal stocks to sell through, and then put out the Finecast replacements for the existing minis as and when the individual lines require replenishment. Nice as they are, I was happy enough with the metal minis I bought in the first place, I've managed fine with metal minis for well over 10 years, I'll manage fine for however many more years I'll keep playing :D

deadly claris
27-06-2011, 09:23
I really think we will se plastic black templar sword brothers(ala death company box) when (if?) we get a new BT codex

totgeboren
27-06-2011, 09:57
@magnum12

Interesting thoughts, but as you say, this is simply speculation (though a fine one at that). It sounds like a plausible theory, but even if I agree with you on that, there is not much more we can do with it. Well, if it turns out you are right, you can fell bright for a while I guess.

I really like your layout, with the 'Background, Method, Discussion' thingy, like in science reports. Made me smile. ;)

magnum12
27-06-2011, 21:51
I suspect I may have found something else that contributes to my theory. After looking at the Fantasy range, I noticed that Bretonnia has practically zero fine cast models barring two special characters and a lot of metal models. That combined with being the current oldest army book in WFB (8 years with the known Q4 release Ogre Kingdoms being 2nd oldest) leads me to the conclusion that yes indeed they are in the pipeline to be released sooner rather than later. I'm calling it around mid Q1 2012-mid Q2 2012 with the release of some of their knights (hybrid kits) and the trebuchet in plastic.

Sildani
27-06-2011, 22:15
Warp Spiders are in the second Finecast wave? That's depressing, they're among the oldest models in all of GW-dom - going on 20 years old! That's great for a single malt whiskey, good for wine, horrible for a mini!

Lars Porsenna
28-06-2011, 19:32
Dunno, I like the current Warp Spiders. I just bought another pack off ebay recently, in fact...

Damon.