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Hochdorf
30-08-2012, 08:42
I apologize if this has already been posted or if I'm posting it in the wrong place. I thought it was an interesting article.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/329f4e82-e954-11e1-b011-00144feab49a.html#axzz250rUSyRl

Edit: If the link doesn't appear to be working properly, you can do a Google search for "Games Workshop Financial Times" and access it that way. It works if you got the site through Google.

Ghremdal
30-08-2012, 09:17
Its a interesting article, but doesn't say much that is not widely known.

- GW is doing great financially
- they are planning a host of new releases
- new models/rules for LotR franchise to coincide with the Hobbit movie
- they plan to stick around

Hochdorf
30-08-2012, 09:45
Yup, not much new or surprising, which is why I posted it here and not in "News and Rumours" - but it's nice to see our hobby being discussed by the wider world! :)

zoggin-eck
30-08-2012, 10:02
which is why I posted it here and not in "News and Rumours"

Try putting it in GW general, where this sort of thing is always discussed

t-tauri
30-08-2012, 10:09
Moved to GW general.

Vazalaar
30-08-2012, 11:16
Its a interesting article, but doesn't say much that is not widely known.

- GW is doing great financially
- they are planning a host of new releases
- new models/rules for LotR franchise to coincide with the Hobbit movie
- they plan to stick around

This sounds as music in my ears.;)

lanrak
30-08-2012, 18:53
Hi all.
Can I question the 'doing great finacially?'

Turn over increased by 7%,(mainly due to new paint range and adding an extra week in the figures...)
However this is the SEVENTH YEAR GW plc retail prices rose higher than GW plc turn over.
This means they are STILL loosing sales volumes.

Taking the high of 2003, GW plc have lost 21% of thier share value.
The FTSE 100 companies have INCREASED by 45%.
So GW plc is 66% down long term.

If sales volumes had been static , they should have a turn over of 142M, from last year , and 320M from 2003.

I3uLLioN
30-08-2012, 19:47
:o

You can use the numbers to paint either a positive or negative picture.... all things considered GW is in a pretty good position.

Sophet Drahas
30-08-2012, 21:07
For now they are. When I left the hobby a few years ago, Privateer Press was the only real miniature competition. When I came back late last year, it seems there's dozens of new companies encroaching on their demographic. Once Confrontation gets a formal re-release with a rule set, I'll be allocating a good portion of my hobby budget over to them. I've gotten most of GW's back catalogue in metal where I can and won't buy Whinecast if there's a metal alternative. Other than some scenery and some Bloodletters I can't think of anything that I plan on buying from GW anytime soon. Forgeworld is another story entirely.

Misfratz
30-08-2012, 21:21
Hi all.
Can I question the 'doing great finacially?'

Turn over increased by 7%,(mainly due to new paint range and adding an extra week in the figures...)
However this is the SEVENTH YEAR GW plc retail prices rose higher than GW plc turn over.
This means they are STILL loosing sales volumes.

Taking the high of 2003, GW plc have lost 21% of thier share value.
The FTSE 100 companies have INCREASED by 45%.
So GW plc is 66% down long term.

If sales volumes had been static , they should have a turn over of 142M, from last year , and 320M from 2003.
Hmm, well, they said that they had increased sales volumes in their annual report - since the Directors could be prosecuted for signing off on false information in that report I am willing to take their word for it over that of an anonymous person on the internet.

The FT article points out that the GW share price is up by about 80% since January 2011 - obviously you can choose a variety of dates to suit whatever point you wish to make (but the FTSE 100 isn't the best comparison, I'd use either FTSE All-Share or the small-cap index, as alluded to in the article).

Obviously GW have had a rocky time since the Lord of the Rings bubble burst, and they've also done a fair few things that have alienated some of the formerly fervent fans, but they have survived and they have a decent basis on which to build on with future boosts coming from the Hobbit and the Horus Heresy.

My only note of caution would be that the large increase in the dividend is reminiscent of the hubris they displayed at the time of the Lords of the Rings bubble.

paddyalexander
30-08-2012, 22:44
gwPLC could have sold 2 million pots of paint paint, at a small profit each but sold only 100 baneblades over the course of the year. They wouldn't have made much money from the growth but it would still be an increase in sales volume.

When you take the licencing royalties and extra week into account that 7% growth becomes around 2.5%. In a year where the average price increase of their products was 13.7%.

Also this is a company that in a year it made a significant loss took out a loan and used it to pay dividends.

At the moment they have no debt and have maintained relitively static revenue trough one of the worst global recessions in history. But they are bleeding customers. Short term they are good, long term not so much.

Mastodon
31-08-2012, 06:34
Ah, the 13.7% figure rears its head again. You are correct, the average price rise of the proucts that went up was 13.7%, now please go ahead and factor in all of their products that didnt and tell me what the average rise is.

I know I'm certainly not getting 13.7% more from the gw products I stock this year.

Scammel
31-08-2012, 06:49
But they are bleeding customers.

Do you have proof of this, or just anecdotal evidence?

Vazalaar
31-08-2012, 10:31
Do you have proof of this, or just anecdotal evidence?

Probably guessing.

God forbid that GW could be in a great shape:rolleyes:

The last years were not the best economical years, the coming years will not be much better. It's great that GW and other miniature companies were not really influenced by this.

I think the next few years will be great for GW. The mini's are getting better and better, they supposedly are increasing their releases. LotR will bring in some extra cash. Yup everything seems great.

It's a great time to be in the hobby. :cool:

paddyalexander
31-08-2012, 11:01
Do you have proof of this, or just anecdotal evidence?

The proof is that gwPLCs' revenue has continued to be reletively static in their financial reports over the last 5 years dispite the fact that they have raised their prices by around 10% a year over that time frame. So by their own numbers either they are: A) Selling much less product to the same number of customers. Or B) Selling the same product to less customers.

Honestly I think it is a combination of both.

We know gwPLCs' stratagy is to make short financial gains at the cost of customer retention, selling a starter set & some boxes to a new customer and then loosing them forever after 12-18 months versus what the rest of the retail sector tries to do whiuch is to retain people as long term customers.

Most people who enter this hobby are introduced by a friend who is already part of it. Less people playing your game means less new customers being introduced to it. They have a saturation of stores in the UK but in the rest of the world they are not so visible.


Ah, the 13.7% figure rears its head again. You are correct, the average price rise of the proucts that went up was 13.7%, now please go ahead and factor in all of their products that didnt and tell me what the average rise is.


You know what is funny, when the that price rise hit the numbers being bandied around where anywhere between a 17% and 22% increase. Then somebody took the time to do the math on the infromation in this document (which lists each paint colour as an individual product by the way): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-qBba7fMe1dEl5dG9uUlVwbTZmUmt4cElqcWNEelE&pli=1#gid=0 and they came up with 13.7%. If you want to take the time to refute the math the information to do so is right there.


I know I'm certainly not getting 13.7% more from the gw products I stock this year.

Really? Why should you? Are you telling me that gwPLC increases the retail price but not the wholesale price durring the annual price adjustments? And that you are not seeing an increase in income from those products in line with the increased prices?

Also that document does not reflect the addittional price increases that happened over the rest of the year. Any model that got moved to finecast saw price increases of between 20% and 50% (Empire Engineer on Mechanical Horse), the entire vehicle range got an extra 5%-10% increase, the lord of the rings range that had all ready recieved a 22% increase in the adjustment got an extra 33% rise per model trough reboxings.

Quite frankly 13.7% is conservitive.

paddyalexander
31-08-2012, 11:36
Probably guessing.

God forbid that GW could be in a great shape:rolleyes:

The last years were not the best economical years, the coming years will not be much better. It's great that GW and other miniature companies were not really influenced by this.

I think the next few years will be great for GW. The mini's are getting better and better, they supposedly are increasing their releases. LotR will bring in some extra cash. Yup everything seems great.

It's a great time to be in the hobby. :cool:

I'll repeat myself


At the moment they have no debt and have maintained relitively static revenue trough one of the worst global recessions in history. But they are bleeding customers. Short term they are good, long term not so much.

The other war games companies have all grown exponentialy over the last couple of years. The important thing here is that the successfull companies are all expanding and growing their customer bases. It has never been a better time to be in the war games hobby because of the sheer variety of amazing and diverse games available on the market at the moment. Competition leads to inovation, quality and reasonably pricing of products which is great for customers.

The next year is going to be telling for gwPLC in how they handle the current situation in Austrailia and New Zealand, where they have effectively killed their market in those countries with their pricing & trade stratagies. They didn't raise prices there this year but what does that matter if no-one is buying your product already. if they can turn that situation around then I'll happily reassess my opinion on the long term health of the company. The question you need to be asking yourself is how many more price increases can you take before you hit your limit?

One of key factors in the success of the Lord of the Rings product range for gwPLC was their partnership with the publisher De Agostini who co-produced Battles in Middle Earth. De Agnostini ran television adverts and sold the magazine in supermarkets, news agents and basicly anywhere else you could buy magazines. It brought in a slew of people who had never even heard of war gaming, let alone games workshop before.

gwPLC have stated that they will not be entering a similar partnership for the Hobbit product range. To be exposed to it you will need to buy a white dwarf or walk into a gwPLC store. It doesn't matter how amazing the product line is or how quickly they release them, if joe public is unaware of their existance then it will not be repeating the success of LotR.

Mastodon
31-08-2012, 21:43
The proof is that gwPLCs' revenue has continued to be reletively static in their financial reports over the last 5 years dispite the fact that they have raised their prices by around 10% a year over that time frame. So by their own numbers either they are: A) Selling much less product to the same number of customers. Or B) Selling the same product to less customers.

Honestly I think it is a combination of both.

We know gwPLCs' stratagy is to make short financial gains at the cost of customer retention, selling a starter set & some boxes to a new customer and then loosing them forever after 12-18 months versus what the rest of the retail sector tries to do whiuch is to retain people as long term customers.

Most people who enter this hobby are introduced by a friend who is already part of it. Less people playing your game means less new customers being introduced to it. They have a saturation of stores in the UK but in the rest of the world they are not so visible.



You know what is funny, when the that price rise hit the numbers being bandied around where anywhere between a 17% and 22% increase. Then somebody took the time to do the math on the infromation in this document (which lists each paint colour as an individual product by the way): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An-qBba7fMe1dEl5dG9uUlVwbTZmUmt4cElqcWNEelE&pli=1#gid=0 and they came up with 13.7%. If you want to take the time to refute the math the information to do so is right there.



Really? Why should you? Are you telling me that gwPLC increases the retail price but not the wholesale price durring the annual price adjustments? And that you are not seeing an increase in income from those products in line with the increased prices?

Also that document does not reflect the addittional price increases that happened over the rest of the year. Any model that got moved to finecast saw price increases of between 20% and 50% (Empire Engineer on Mechanical Horse), the entire vehicle range got an extra 5%-10% increase, the lord of the rings range that had all ready recieved a 22% increase in the adjustment got an extra 33% rise per model trough reboxings.

Quite frankly 13.7% is conservitive.

Thats not even half of the products GW sell. Just the stuff independents can purchase, and its also not the UK price rise list which is what I work from, being in the UK and all.

There is also the fact that working on pure price increase % is incorrect, since yes, Lord of The Rings models went up massively, yet make up maybe 5% of GW's financial takings. The humble tactical squad, which I have been reliably informed accounts for about 3% of the UK income on its own (In various forms, Space Wolves box etc) Didnt go up. Is it right to then change the numbers based on that?

You cannot infer sales revenue from a list of prices without knowing the exact number of those items sold, so Price increase being higher than sales increase does not mean that it truly is.


I raise my prices inline with GW's to keep my discount consistent on all of my products I offer from GW. If what you say is true, If I just sold exactly the same products this month as I did last year, I'd have 13% more money. This is false, it'd be no-where near that amount.

paddyalexander
31-08-2012, 23:31
I raise my prices inline with GW's to keep my discount consistent on all of my products I offer from GW. If what you say is true, If I just sold exactly the same products this month as I did last year, I'd have 13% more money. This is false, it'd be no-where near that amount.

That would be assuming that customers are also increasing their spending in line with the price increases. Which is the point I was trying to make. When gwPLC increase the price of their products, with the exception of 2005 the numbers have shown a reletive drop in the extrapolated sales volume.

In other words you are not seeing an increase in the money you or gwPLC are taking in because many people are not increasing the amount of money they have to spend on a hobby reletive to how much gwPLC have increased their prices over the last 6-8 years.

Mastodon
01-09-2012, 19:51
That would be assuming that customers are also increasing their spending in line with the price increases. Which is the point I was trying to make. When gwPLC increase the price of their products, with the exception of 2005 the numbers have shown a reletive drop in the extrapolated sales volume.

In other words you are not seeing an increase in the money you or gwPLC are taking in because many people are not increasing the amount of money they have to spend on a hobby reletive to how much gwPLC have increased their prices over the last 6-8 years.

And yet I've seen an increase in the amount of gw product I sell on a box for box basis. My gw takings are up, as of end of business yesterday, 14% on last year. My shop went bananas today so when I work that out, I imagine it will be into the 20% range.

ehlijen
02-09-2012, 10:45
The other war games companies have all grown exponentialy over the last couple of years. The important thing here is that the successfull companies are all expanding and growing their customer bases. It has never been a better time to be in the war games hobby because of the sheer variety of amazing and diverse games available on the market at the moment. Competition leads to inovation, quality and reasonably pricing of products which is great for customers.


To a degree. If the market is splintered between different games too much, it's bad for everyone. Companies will sell less each and players will have a harder time agreeing with their friends on which game to play and invest in (all miniature games are some investment. Not as much as GW wants us to think, but still more than comparable board or hex and counter games).

Max Jet
02-09-2012, 10:48
And yet I've seen an increase in the amount of gw product I sell on a box for box basis. My gw takings are up, as of end of business yesterday, 14% on last year. My shop went bananas today so when I work that out, I imagine it will be into the 20% range.

Is this a recent developement or one you can apply to the whole business year?

Mastodon
02-09-2012, 20:58
Is this a recent developement or one you can apply to the whole business year?

In April (my end of financial year) my income from GW product was 13.7% higher than the previous year. And that is carrying on through, although August has been particularly slow for customers for a variety of factors. (Olympics/Holidays/Actually going outside etc etc).

Thats not an isolated thing though, only my Warmachine stock has been sitting untouched. I had a brief upsurge of it back in May and then its as if everyone that bought something decided not to carry it on.

If I had to say anything about the last 10 months, it'd be that its a good time to be in the miniature business.