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t-tauri
04-10-2012, 20:12
Prete's thread on Dakkadakka here (http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/448304.page) is provoking some off topic discussion in the news and rumours threads.

In order to keep the news and rumour threads uncluttered discussion of that thread and it's ramifications will be limited to this thread only.

Please keep the discussion civil and refrain from making no content "I agree" posts. Off topic and no content will be removed without notice. Please bear in mind our posting guidelines.

Arkley
04-10-2012, 20:16
I think this whole bashing of rumour mongers has to stop... There is no need for some of the crap that gets posted. If someone gets something wrong the Lynchmob mentality gets damn annoying.

loveless
04-10-2012, 20:27
You really have to look at the details of the thread - some of the "False" labels are just getting names wrong or mixed around. There are some weird things labeled "too vague" as well.

Honestly, it seems unnecessary - even if a rumour doesn't turn out to be true, it doesn't mean it wasn't the case at one point in development.

Avian
04-10-2012, 20:38
I think it's a good idea. When Tastytaste posted some Dark Angels rumours the other day a lot of people were poo-pooing his post because they didn't like his attitude. In cases like that, it's great to be able to show things like this:

Tastytaste at Blood of Kittens - Total rumors: (78 TRUE) / (11 FALSE) / (15 PENDING)

Gets people off the backs of people who haven't done anything wrong other than not trying to win a popularity contest.


Similarly, a year or so ago, the ex-poster called steppingonyou tried to claim credit for rumours I'd posted about the O&G army book. If we'd had such a list back then, I wouldn't have had to do so much digging to find the original post.

75hastings69
04-10-2012, 20:42
I disagree Tarj if I were considering starting posting rumours thinking that everything I said would be publicly dissected and displayed in some kind of league table, when the only reason for posting was for the benefit of others I'm damn sure I wouldn't bother!!

Black-Tooth
04-10-2012, 20:44
To be honest I am against the Rumours, or the people that go after them. I don't 'bash' them or insult them, but I was once in the position of having a LOT of rumours on future GW releases and because I couldn't talk about them several people I knew really started to get angry with me and very aggressive towards me, even though I could have lost my job if I told them.

75hastings69
04-10-2012, 20:52
That's completely different, you signed an NDA and your "friends" didn't respect that. These forums would be considerably less interesting if people weren't posting rumours as we know gw don't want their customers to know about anything until 1 week before it happens. Public rating of the rumours posted and the "angry mob" mentality will just put people off sharing rumours if they're going to be publicly humiliated if they turn out to be wrong.

Avian
04-10-2012, 20:54
It's giving everyone equal access to information, which I think is mostly a good thing.

And we have had people who posted a lot of correct stuff stop posting, because so many people gave them a tough time for not being audience friendly enough.
(If we'd had the list earlier, I would have been able to remember who that was...)

We've had rumour roundups for years, this is not a lot more than combining info which is scattered across different threads and forums.

75hastings69
04-10-2012, 20:58
But you never had league tables and big red marks against people's names!

Amongst my first rumours were plastic rat ogres, I was largely ridiculed however I knew I wasn't making stuff up as the sprues were on my desk (I couldn't post pics or someone would have been in trouble) it comes with posting rumours though. I don't see how logging these rumours accuracy achieves anything positive for the community??

Avian
04-10-2012, 21:12
Maybe the marks shouldn't be red, maybe the table should be structured differently.

Harry is tracking who said what in several threads in the FB Rumour forum - is he also a *****, only of a lesser degree? I don't think you mean that. Why is he keeping track?

The table has twenty people on it who have posted 10 rumours or more. Three of those are wrong significantly more often than right. Two of those three provided most of the rumours in the first six months(ish) of the 40K Chaos Marine rumour threads. The people who DID provide correct rumours during that period were not listened to or actively harrassed. That's what happens when you let the mob rule.

Scammel
04-10-2012, 21:30
A great big 'authoratative' league table strikes me as taking it all both a little seriously and a little too far, but at the same time sometimes I feel people need to be asked why they're throwing their blind faith behind someone.

Avian
04-10-2012, 21:40
This was published today, with almost frighteningly good timing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laqVpplmRWo

boogle
04-10-2012, 21:57
I suspect the Cultist rumour may not happen due to the champion not getting any access to any sort of Power Weapon

xxRavenxx
04-10-2012, 22:11
It seems like it would be a good exercise in principle, checking if unknown rumor mongers are actually coming up with anything, or just making stuff up.

However, it is being done in an inappropriate way.

Simple misconceptions like maulers and oblits sharing a box because they share bodyparts is not someone being "FALSE" (in the direct way pretre puts it). Getting the wrong date on the necron flyers is not "FALSE". Its likely they were moved to fit another project (the flyers wave).

I also take exception to the fact that they aren't deeply judging me on my own track record :( I've rumoured at least three things in the last year or two, and been correct. Where is my gold star? :( I need it so I can go on to spread false information on purpose to show that my previous track record means very little when its only three entities...

Related to that idea, that they are tracking certain people, who have made 3-4 vague comments which look like good guesses, seems pointless. Oh look. Guy X guessed that traitor guard weren't coming, and that there was a flyer. How odd that he managed that...

Inquisitor Engel
04-10-2012, 22:16
Where is my gold star? :(

You don't want one of those, they're just a lot of pressure. ;)

Avian
04-10-2012, 22:24
On the flip side, people have gotten credit for saying that Necrons would get more elites without saying anything about what those units might be, and for saying that there would be plastic Plaguebearers at some unspecified point in the future.
So it swings both ways and statistically it's unlikely to have much of an effect in the bigger picture.

Lord Damocles
04-10-2012, 22:44
Related to that idea, that they are tracking certain people, who have made 3-4 vague comments which look like good guesses, seems pointless. Oh look. Guy X guessed that traitor guard weren't coming, and that there was a flyer. How odd that he managed that...
I don't get why people who state (/guess) the obvious are so often considered reliable sources either.

Reading my predictions for the Necron Codex/releases, you'd think that I was some sort of rumour-master...

loveless
04-10-2012, 22:49
So it swings both ways and statistically it's unlikely to have much of an effect in the bigger picture.

True if it happens for a single person - but if Rumourmonger Bob has a 13/25 correct rating because things like "Mutilator/Obliterator in One Kit" and "Forgefiend is a close combat walker, Maulerfiend is a ranged walker" are marked as false, it makes him look worse than Rumourmonger Bill, who has a 24/25 correct rating because things like "Plastic Plaguebearers are coming!" and "Necrons get more Elites!" are counted as correct rumors.

In other words, the actual scores mean nothing because what garners a TRUE/FALSE from that thread is far too subjective. Bob and Bill in the above situation might both have 19 "actually correct" rumours, but because of their choice of wording, their own attitudes, or their own relationships with the community, one comes out ahead.

It's a valiant effort, but they either need to use "TOO VAGUE" more often or decide that all slight mistakes and oversimplifications need to be marked as true or false. As it stands, the "scores" are meaningless - you have to read through the list to actually confirm anything. That's not bad in and of itself, but some of the...less gentlemanly...of the rumourmancer sect is bound to start toting their "95% right!" like some sort of annoying badge of honor.

Ultimately, this serves to feed the egos of the egotistical, frighten away those with access to early information, and utterly annoy the common rumourmonger. All of that is unwarranted, since the list (for some reason) shows some level of bias, whether intentional or not.

xxRavenxx
04-10-2012, 22:52
On the flip side, people have gotten credit for saying that Necrons would get more elites without saying anything about what those units might be, and for saying that there would be plastic Plaguebearers at some unspecified point in the future.
So it swings both ways and statistically it's unlikely to have much of an effect in the bigger picture.

Exactly the problem I was trying to hi-light at the end of my post. I don't think it does swing both ways. A known and accurate person is getting "demerits" for slightly off but accurate rumours, some idiot is getting props for stating the obvious.


Heres my contribution for the future:

There will be a new dark angels book in the next year. It will improve Belial's rules. Deathwing terminators will be akin to GK paladins.

I bet that will get me to six ticks on his list. How many inane guesses with high accuracy does it take to make me credible? :)

How many slight errors in a legitimate rumor does it take before hastings isn't counted as an accurate source?

The "sampling" being done is dumb. Its not statistically relevant data. If it was just a list stating who's made accurate rumors in the past, with a tally, then huzzah. But its not, its counting things which shouldn't be on someones track record.

Scaryscarymushroom
04-10-2012, 22:58
This was published today, with almost frighteningly good timing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laqVpplmRWo

This video is so universally applicable that It's probably worth posting everywhere. Twice a day.

Craze_b0i
04-10-2012, 23:00
I like it as an idea. It's really no much more than the rumour-roundup on warseer. It's just a way of collecting information, to help filter what is reliable. I would never flame or abuse someone for being incorrect, 9 times out of 10 it is probably an honest mistake. However if some guy has already posted a dozen rumours but been repeatedly wrong every single time then knowing this fact can save everyone a lot of pointless discussion of something which is most likely bogus.

However whether this information is being accurately collected by this particular person doing it is another matter, to that I do not know.

Charax
04-10-2012, 23:14
I've posted a few times in that thread and the thread leading up to it. Generally speaking it's a good idea, but with a poor, haphazard execution and pretre's basically making up his method as he goes along.

The problem is what actually constitutes "a rumour". If I say a 10-man striking scorpion box will be released next august to coincide with a new Eldar codex, how many rumours is that? Is it just one, which is either TRUE or FALSE, is it broken down into a couple of different ones (Eldar Codex & Scorpion Box) or is it broken down with full granularity so each portion can be graded on its accuracy? I would argue that the last of those would be the fairest method, but it also involves the most effort, which apparently it too much for pretre.

Still, it's nice to be able to see such things in broad strokes, even if I dont believe it to be entirely reliable on specifics, and I dont see any reason for people posting rumours to be against it (in principle at least, if not in execution). It's not so much "shaming" people, as keeping a record of what they say, which is pretty damned useful.

On Warseer it's common to hear people say they trust Harry or Hastings while simultaneously disbelieving others like BoK, and both tempering the former and countering the latter are things I approve of. It may well have a chilling effect on people posting rumours - I'm ok with that, if people are afraid of posting things because they may be held accountable for what they post, that's no massive loss in my eyes. they can always submit it to another site and have them judge its worth as a rumour

xxRavenxx
04-10-2012, 23:22
I'm ok with that, if people are afraid of posting things because they may be held accountable for what they post, that's no massive loss in my eyes.

Being accountable to a nameless populace for taking a personal risk to attempt to bring them joy...

Sounds delightful.

Brother Dimetrius
04-10-2012, 23:25
Being accountable to a nameless populace for taking a personal risk to attempt to bring them joy...

Sounds delightful.

Indeed. "Entitlement" and "Taking things far too seriously" are two things that spontanously spring to mind for me. Oh well, if it amuses...

Sheena Easton
04-10-2012, 23:36
If handled properly, it can be a good thing - but putting a big red FALSE up against something because the names are mixed up like here


The forgefiend is a CC demon engine FALSE
and there's a variant that's a a shooty variant with 2 butcher cannons and can take a heavy flamer and some other options. FALSE


or being called vague / wrong because the rumour is questioned in posting it (as unlikely, misunderstood or only one option) or a name isn't used but when the release happens its blatantly obvious what it is (eg Raptors / Warp Talons as per this)


- definition between Raptors and "Chaos Assault Marines", with Raptors being a new cult for Night Lords TOO VAGUE?

is not.


This one had me a bit confused:

7 Disciplines FALSE
Psychic Power handout. 7 Disciplines with aquila case and cards TRUE
:wtf:

Overall though, I think the problems with rumours are people getting upset at / nasty towards rumour posters who aren't known, and those who just make stuff up for attention and while the idea of the list comparing rumours with releases should deter the latter, it does nothing for the former, especially when things change / are misunderstood / miscommunicated and dates don't match up for whatever reason (which happens in many businesses, not just GW)

StraightSilver
04-10-2012, 23:48
Indeed. "Entitlement" and "Taking things far too seriously" are two things that spontanously spring to mind for me. Oh well, if it amuses...

I couldn't agree more to be honest.

I don't have a problem with the thread on Dakka per se, on the one hand it justifies the more reliable rumour mongers, but then again I see as also putting off others.

I used to enjoy posting rumours, I never doubted my sources but I accepted that anything I posted was probably about 50/50 accurate and wasn't bothered by that as I felt it beneficial to the community to post what I'd heard but it also opened up interesting discussions too.

However there are an element of people on the internet who feel the need to be proved right, or who don't understand the actual concept of a rumour. In other words it's just that, a rumour.

I have never (to my knowledge) posted something expecting it to be taken as gospel, as more often than not it was heard over a pint and was always going to be open to interpretation or subject to change.

Unfortunately that isn't good enough for a lot of people, so I pretty much stopped posting as I couldn't be bothered to continually explain myself to people that don't know me. Plus I can't spend all day on the internet as I have to get some work done. :)

The other issue that I had was that I chose to post almost exclusively on Warseer, although often on BOLS too, as I respect the community here. However my posts would be cross-posted to other forums such as Dakka, where I have had serious issues with posters.

So now I just keep myself to myself pretty much. The only rumour mongers I trust are Harry, Stickmonkey and Hastings, not necessarily because thhey are 100% accurate, but because they seem to be the most reasonably balanced people and I believe post for the right reasons.

The only other issue I have with the Dakka thread is that it doesn't take into account mistakes.

2 of my rumours listed as FALSE were simply things I saw or heard about a long time before release that ended up being wrong, but not necessarily were false.

One example is the plastic Harridan. A couple of years before the latest Tyranid Codex was released I oversaw a meeting with Jes Goodwin and Warwick Kinkade where they were designing a large Nid flyer which would be a plastic kit.

More than likely that was the Harpy, but of course that model still has yet to be released.

I also heard about Traitor Legion specific models and rules which I assumed was the new direction for the Chaos Space Marine Codex. Of course that was false, but then look what Forge World have just released. I'm not going to take credit for predicting that as I didn't, but now realise that that was probably what my mate was talking about several mmonths ago.

What I will say though is that I feel people are very cautious about posting rumours now, and that the forums are worse off for it. I like reading rumours, even if a lot of them turn out to be bobbins.

Venkh
04-10-2012, 23:58
I really don't like the bashing of rumor mongers that goes on.

Especially from the people who demand a source from the poster. As if your response is going to be 'my mate, jim who works in the warehouse as a fork lift driver' cue Jim getting fired.

People need to back off and let rumors be discussed as possibilities rather than truth or lies

blackcherry
04-10-2012, 23:58
Its a noble idea, but the way its being handled, it can only go down in flames. Its far too imprecise to really be of much use.

The old fashioned method of just lurking for an age and figuring out who seems to give reliable rumors, through experience, still works best.

Arkley
05-10-2012, 00:15
I really don't like the bashing of rumor mongers that goes on.

Especially from the people who demand a source from the poster. As if your response is going to be 'my mate, jim who works in the warehouse as a fork lift driver' cue Jim getting fired.

People need to back off and let rumors be discussed as possibilities rather than truth or lies

Sometimes I wish there was a like button... Thats exactly it... And people who attack them should be dealt with harshly...

Craze_b0i
05-10-2012, 01:16
What I will say though is that I feel people are very cautious about posting rumours now, and that the forums are worse off for it. I like reading rumours, even if a lot of them turn out to be bobbins.

I take on board much of your post, but here I am of the opposite view, with regard to news of any kind I prefer quality over quantity. I am not condemning anyone for getting things wrong, but I would like to think people at least give some consideration before announcing to the entire internet that X will definately happen.

ForgottenLore
05-10-2012, 01:26
The old fashioned method of just lurking for an age and figuring out who seems to give reliable rumors, through experience, still works best.

Except it doesn't work (basically at all). Witness the number of people constantly claiming Stickmonkey is almost always wrong vs the number of people who were convinced Ghost was one of the more reliable 'mongers.

Then there is the perennial issue of rumor Chinese whispers, where what a rumor monger actually says gets massively distorted before it comes true and then they get blamed because people thought they said something else.

I've wanted a record like this for a long time, just not enough to actually do it myself.

Scribe of Khorne
05-10-2012, 02:10
Frankly, who cares what a bunch of nerds think? If I was a person who knew that I got some rumours leaked to me accurately why would I give two ***** that either 1, someone wants to get bent out of shape if I am wrong, or 2, someone thinks I am a liar?

Some people need to get over themselves and their 'Hobby' and their internet tough guy show, with all humility of course. ;)

Ultraloth
05-10-2012, 09:24
I have nothing against people posting rumours they've heard which turn out to be false. Sometimes those rumours sound awesome and for a short while you can dream about how amazing the new incarnation of an army will be. (The flipside can be that loads of people are extremely disappointed when they see what the actual new models look like. GW could counter this by being a bit more forthcomming about their upcomming releases.)

However: I'm often annoyed by people posting rumours with a conviction of certainty, who subsequentely don't own up to the fact that the rumour they were promoting turned out to be bobbins, but instead strut about the forum like they're good sources of information. (In the spirit of this thread I won't be calling names.)

The more reliable sources of information often preface their rumours by saying that they don't know anything for certain but are just comming up with an estimated guess based on stuff they've seen or heard. They're also very open about the times they've made a mistake and they DON'T try to gloss over the fact.

What I like about the Dakka thread is that it makes the mistakes public. (Allthough I agree that not all FALSE labels are justified.) I don't think that rumourmongers who are open about the fact that they can and do make mistakes have anything to fear. It's the rumourmongers who try to gloss over the fact that most of what they said didn't come to pass who are exposed by this tally.

Venkh
05-10-2012, 10:56
That thread also provides a handy source of who revealed what when to GW.

That thread will make it much easier to find out where the leaks are coming from. GW could do this themselves but i suspect that they cant be bothered at the moment because it involves too much trawling around.

For the sake of all rumor fans everywhere it should be closed, locked and deleted.

PointBlank
05-10-2012, 11:07
I think the whole concept is ridiculous and reeks of stroppy entitlement from the userbase, but if they are going to do it, what's wrong with simply awarding 1 point for an entirely accurate rumour, 1/2 a point for an partially accurate or relatively obvious rumour and 0 for a false rumour? That way, there is a good indication of accuracy (rather than 'reliability', which implies intentional dishonesty) without big red marks all over the place that encourage judgemental dismissal of people that are just trying to help out and spread some excitement.

Ultraloth
05-10-2012, 11:19
I think the whole concept is ridiculous and reeks of stroppy entitlement from the userbase, but if they are going to do it, what's wrong with simply awarding 1 point for an entirely accurate rumour, 1/2 a point for an partially accurate or relatively obvious rumour and 0 for a false rumour? That way, there is a good indication of accuracy (rather than 'reliability', which implies intentional dishonesty) without big red marks all over the place that encourage judgemental dismissal of people that are just trying to help out and spread some excitement.

I think those are great suggestions.

On the other hand, I think some people post rumours to appear to be "in the know" (IE to stroke their own egos) and personally I don't really mind if those types are taken down a peg or two by the dakka thread.

Damien 1427
05-10-2012, 11:30
That thread also provides a handy source of who revealed what when to GW.

It's not that hard to find out anyway. Release certain rumors through suspected sources. If they wind up on the internet, you'll know how they got there.

Venkh
05-10-2012, 12:23
They could do that, but why make it easier for them.

This way they can just look at the most reliable rumor poster

Find out who it is (quite easy) and go from there.

It much easier to trace from the leak than to plant purple dye and hope it comes out somewhere.

DeathlessDraich
05-10-2012, 12:51
That's completely different, you signed an NDA and your "friends" didn't respect that. These forums would be considerably less interesting if people weren't posting rumours as we know gw don't want their customers to know about anything until 1 week before it happens. Public rating of the rumours posted and the "angry mob" mentality will just put people off sharing rumours if they're going to be publicly humiliated if they turn out to be wrong.

True. I am shocked that a well proven contributor like you and Harry should come under any scrutiny at all. The silent majority who appreciate rumours rather than judging them hastily, has now spoken. :D


I really don't like the bashing of rumor mongers that goes on.

Especially from the people who demand a source from the poster.

Yes, a question of balance as usual but there is a lack of appreciation and too much criticism which have put off many rumour contributors.


Its a noble idea, but the way its being handled, it can only go down in flames. Its far too imprecise to really be of much use.

The old fashioned method of just lurking for an age and figuring out who seems to give reliable rumors, through experience, still works best.

1) I wouldn't call it (the rankings of rumour contributors) noble at all since it focuses on deprecating the false rumour mongers

2) Some of the most accurate rumours have been provided by non regulars. For TK I recalll a contributor from Japan who provided perfectly accurate information weeks before the release date.


Maybe the marks shouldn't be red, maybe the table should be structured differently.

Harry is tracking who said what in several threads in the FB Rumour forum - is he also a *****, only of a lesser degree? I don't think you mean that. Why is he keeping track?

The table has twenty people on it who have posted 10 rumours or more. Three of those are wrong significantly more often than right. Two of those three provided most of the rumours in the first six months(ish) of the 40K Chaos Marine rumour threads. The people who DID provide correct rumours during that period were not listened to or actively harrassed. That's what happens when you let the mob rule.

:)Rumours by definition are not fact. The rumours sub- forum is not an information sub-forum.
There's bound to be inaccuracies, exaggeration and even falsehood. It is still rumours nevertheless, and as far as I'm concerned, perfectly admissable.
It's up to the reader to use some intelligence and experience to try to discern the accurate from the conjectured

Even the 'best' contributors have been wrong. Does it really matter that someone is accurate 10% of the time or 90% of the time?
The fact that at least some of the rumours is accurate is good enough for me.

A contributor who is less than 50% accurate could possibly have been totally truthful. The final army book does after all undergo several changes before publication and the rumours could have originated from initial ideas. I know this for a fact. The rumours which would be proven to be false after the release date, could well have been true at that time.

Who's to tell whether this has happened or not? Who can know for certain whether a post is made in good faith or not? A contributor who has made at least 1 accurate completely new rumour, is worthy of listening to, the next time.


When the idea of 'snake riders' first came out in the TK rumours, many Warseerites slammed it down as ridulous. I don't think that member ever posted again.

Let's not be too hasty in slamming down rumour contributors whether new or well-known. Let's show appreciation and let criticism be channelled to the armchair critics who judge too easily when they do not have the authority to do so, especially when they make no actual rumour contributions themselves.:)

MiyamatoMusashi
05-10-2012, 13:29
I can see the idea of what they're trying to do here.

Several months back there was a load of Tau rumours saying, "there will be a Tau flyer called the Lamprey out in the next two months, only it might not be called the Lamprey and might not be out in the next two months!" It was an obvious fake and even worse, written in such a way that no matter what happened it couldn't technically be called wrong. I guess that any Tau flyer that ever comes out - not an unlikely occurence! - will technically fit that so-called "rumour". But... discussion of this claim (and the others posted alongside it at the same time) dominated all Tau discussion for weeks... hiding a lot of the potentially genuine information that might have been coming out at the same time.

It would be nice to see some way of silencing such noise, in hope of seeing through to the signal.

But... I don't think this is a good way to do it. Marking people down for saying a Forgefiend was CC when it actually turns out that the Maulerfiend (that shares the same box!) is the CC version, or whatever...? That's ridiculous. I'm not sure what a good way to do it would be, though, and in the absence of a good way, why do it at all?

Ultimately, we all know that Harry is usually on the ball, as is Hastings, and most of the time Stickmonkey too... not all of them always get it right in every particular, but hey, who does? If it comes from those sources, I'll probably believe it (even accepting that the details may not be perfect). If it comes from someone else... I'll hedge my bets. If the someone else goes to great lengths to explain that "things may change!" or "this is only a rumour!" - or, conversely, if they're too specific about points values and such like - it's probably not true, as a general rule of thumb.

Easy E
05-10-2012, 13:37
Dang, now even spouting rumors has become a competetion in the GW community?

If I was the type of person that had inside information or had heard a rumor, I wouldn;t bother posting it anymore. Why share if people are going to be ******* about the whole thing?

Quark
05-10-2012, 13:41
I don't understand all the hostility. It's information. What you do with information is up to you. Me? I'll use it to judge how deeply I'll believe a rumor. People say "Stickmonkey's always wrong" constantly - that thread proves them wrong. He gives rumor very early at a fairly decent success rate, with the most common error being release date. Hastings and Harry are shown just how accurate they are, having such a low amount of FALSEs listed. Natfka (Faeit 212) has being going absolutely nuts with rumors lately, clearly with multiple sources. The list shows some of his sources are 100% dead on, some have an idea but not so much the details, and some are just terrible. Since he never differentiates between sources, it's hard to know if you can take a rumor he posts at face value.

A direct quote from the person organizing the list:

As I have always said, I will take any and all feedback to improve the list. At its heart, te idea is to provide a resource to the community.

He's taken to seperating rumours into what and when because of feedback. He used to post percentages, but after discussion decided that was too specific.

Or would you all prefer to continue listening to theDarkGeneral and ghost21?

Asher
05-10-2012, 14:50
Generally I think is a good idea. The worst thing to happen to rumormongering in recent month is the influx of trolls who post things just to stir up the community. In the end it is the honest rumormongers who suffer! Why?

Most 'inaccurate' rumors we have seen on the chaos codex featured some very desirable things like cult terminators and what not. On the other hand, Tastytaste who had a great track record so far, was bullied not only because of his atitude but also because his rumors have shown the ugly truth: Only some of the things people really wanted were actually included in the chaos codex. Same thing with the recently leaked release list.

And that's the problem; without a track record, people just believe the one who talks about the desired things and the the others are being bullied, despite being correct in the end. With the list, people can simply estimate the probability that the provided information is true based on track record.

Scammel
05-10-2012, 16:48
Hah, just looked through and it lists Tasty as being 'false' when he stated 'Rules for Traitor Guard' and Stick as 'correct' when he stated 'Traitor Guard are in'!

SunTzu
05-10-2012, 17:41
One thing I will say for him: he's pretty comprehensive. He didn't pick up on every rumour I put out there but he did notice the biggest - which got practically no attention at the time, I didn't think anyone spotted it!

logan054
06-10-2012, 02:54
Dang, now even spouting rumors has become a competetion in the GW community?

If I was the type of person that had inside information or had heard a rumor, I wouldn;t bother posting it anymore. Why share if people are going to be ******* about the whole thing?

x2, I don't understand this need to rate people on how reliable they are at providing rumours, if I was Harry or hasting I wouldn't bother posting rumours, whats the point, its clear people are taking what is free information for granted. Sure some of what is posted is complete bull, but since when did the name rumour imply "this is set in stone" ? so sad that people are now ranking rumour mongers.

Avian
06-10-2012, 08:03
Harry himself IS helping keeping track of people's accuracy in the rumour forum. If he wasn't interested in ensuring credit where credit is due, then why is he not simply lumping everything in one post with no mention of who said what?

logan054
06-10-2012, 11:24
Harry himself IS helping keeping track of people's accuracy in the rumour forum. If he wasn't interested in ensuring credit where credit is due, then why is he not simply lumping everything in one post with no mention of who said what?

So Harry has a rumour league table in his thread? I must have missed that, I have seen something that is pretty standard, X said this, why said this (if I post a rumour from another forum, then I will post who said what), this isn't the same as putting little golden stars next to people's name. You have this thing against certain people who have posted rumours, I'm sure you love that you can point them to this, this has nothing to do with helping the community, if it did, I might well find it constructive.

BigbyWolf
06-10-2012, 12:05
this isn't the same as putting little golden stars next to people's name.

What does posting rumours have to do with being one of the Moderators?

logan054
06-10-2012, 12:11
I don't recall saying silver...

BigbyWolf
06-10-2012, 12:33
I don't recall saying silver...

I don't recall saying you said silver...

Silver is for guilders.

Gold is for Mods.

Red is for Admins.

logan054
06-10-2012, 12:40
:rolleyes: Really, you actually posted that? lol!!! I guess I could be equally as patronizing and explain the concept of giving someone a golden star, but I can't be bothered.

The Dude
06-10-2012, 12:53
Ease up lads ;)

I'm sure BigbyWolf was joking.

BigbyWolf
06-10-2012, 13:39
:rolleyes: Really, you actually posted that? lol!!! I guess I could be equally as patronizing and explain the concept of giving someone a golden star, but I can't be bothered.

No offence meant Logan, I wasn't being patronizing, was just trying to be helpful. Mixing up the stars is quite common.

Craze_b0i
06-10-2012, 16:37
x2, I don't understand this need to rate people on how reliable they are at providing rumours, if I was Harry or hasting I wouldn't bother posting rumours, whats the point, its clear people are taking what is free information for granted. Sure some of what is posted is complete bull, but since when did the name rumour imply "this is set in stone" ? so sad that people are now ranking rumour mongers.

It depends how rumour-mongers word their post. If some says "I have heard a rumour that they plan to do X" then it is different to someone posting said information as a statement-of-fact "this will happen" (implying that they or the source have seen/recieved hard evidence beyond mere rumour). Of course things may still change (GW changes its mind at the last second), but on balance you would expect the latter type to be more right more often than not, whereas on the fomer type you can allow/accept for greater unpredictability.

logan054
06-10-2012, 22:37
No offence meant Logan, I wasn't being patronizing, was just trying to be helpful. Mixing up the stars is quite common.

Its cool dude, no worries


It depends how rumour-mongers word their post. If some says "I have heard a rumour that they plan to do X" then it is different to someone posting said information as a statement-of-fact "this will happen" (implying that they or the source have seen/recieved hard evidence beyond mere rumour). Of course things may still change (GW changes its mind at the last second), but on balance you would expect the latter type to be more right more often than not, whereas on the fomer type you can allow/accept for greater unpredictability.

I use to trust the dark generals rumours because I remember him being a lot more accurate with the WoC stuff last time round, all I take from this is GW has had a rumour clamp down, and some sources are just not as reliable as others, still no need to bash someone in the way I have seen on here because a source that was once reliable clearly isn't anymore. I have no problem with the dark general, he shares my love of chaos, rather than making these charts, why don't people actually do something constructive? paint some models? play some games, write some tactics threads! I know, this is some crazy arsed ***** I'm talking about right?

Craze_b0i
07-10-2012, 00:57
I wasn't suggesting to bash anyone. I was simply pointing out variation in both proclaimed and actual level of certainty. In some cases the word rumour is not appropriate, it is disclosing direct information.

pretre
08-10-2012, 21:52
Just an FYI, there's an R in my username. Common mistake.


I don't understand all the hostility. It's information. What you do with information is up to you. Me? I'll use it to judge how deeply I'll believe a rumor. People say "Stickmonkey's always wrong" constantly - that thread proves them wrong. He gives rumor very early at a fairly decent success rate, with the most common error being release date. Hastings and Harry are shown just how accurate they are, having such a low amount of FALSEs listed. Natfka (Faeit 212) has being going absolutely nuts with rumors lately, clearly with multiple sources. The list shows some of his sources are 100% dead on, some have an idea but not so much the details, and some are just terrible. Since he never differentiates between sources, it's hard to know if you can take a rumor he posts at face value.

A direct quote from the person organizing the list:


He's taken to seperating rumours into what and when because of feedback. He used to post percentages, but after discussion decided that was too specific.

Or would you all prefer to continue listening to theDarkGeneral and ghost21?

And I think Quark sums up my position on this matter quite nicely. ;)


edit: Thanks t-tauri! Also, side thanks to logan054 for removing his posts questioning my ability to get laid. That makes for a nice welcome. ;)

edit2: There you go, credit where credit is due.

logan054
08-10-2012, 22:27
I wasn't suggesting to bash anyone.

That is however the result, which I have seen done many times now. The whole thing is just taking rumour posting for granted, you hear something, you post it and now you will be judged based on some random guys little rumour league table, but since when was a rumour fact? I don't need a table to tell me Harry and hastings are usually pretty spot on, nor do I need one to tell me Ghost makes it up (does he even post them now?). Its like having a league table about which one provides the best gossip, seriously, I find the whole thing is crazy. If I hadn't read a comment about forcing people out of the game I would have just laughed at it and moved on.

PS, that wasn't T-Tauri ;)

Asher
08-10-2012, 23:38
I don't need a table to tell me Harry and hastings are usually pretty spot on, nor do I need one to tell me Ghost makes it up (does he even post them now?

This shows that you obviously need a league table; you just seem to have the luxury and time to make your own one in your mind. Some people don't browse forums that frequenly and read all rumors to update their evaluation of every rumor poster on a regular basis.

I for one, got a better opinion of Stickmonkey after the table than before it.

6mmhero
09-10-2012, 11:12
People really need to stop taking Rumors so seriously. They are not facts but people passing on info that they have either been told or have seen.

I think having a league table just makes the whole thing a little too serious as at the end of the day all we are talking about is rumors about toy soldiers.

x-esiv-4c
09-10-2012, 12:23
Just remember, all rumors "leaked" have been sanctioned by GW.

logan054
09-10-2012, 12:36
This shows that you obviously need a league table; you just seem to have the luxury and time to make your own one in your mind.

You've been here longer than me and I would think within 7 years you would have been able to guess that Harry and hasting post pretty reliable stuff, the rest should be taken with a pinch of salt. I am honest very shocked by the amount of people who think its a good idea, lets make posting rumours a competitin!

Quark
09-10-2012, 13:30
Oh no! It might convince people to give us more reliable rumours, and stop giving us bad rumours!

The Horror!

PointBlank
09-10-2012, 14:47
Oh no! It might convince people to give us more reliable rumours, and stop giving us bad rumours!

The Horror!

Or it might convince genuine, reliable sources not to be so forthcoming if they know they are going to be endlessly scrutinised, attacked and ultimately judged by non-contributing, entitled busy-bodies.

But, you know, just be snarky about it.

ForgottenLore
09-10-2012, 15:14
if they know they are going to be endlessly scrutinised, attacked and ultimately judged by non-contributing, entitled busy-bodies.

That's what's been happening for the last few years. Having evidence that you have been more or less accurate REDUCES the attacks on reliable informants. Now when someone attacks stickmonkey by saying he never gets anything right, we can say "yes he does, see here", which will lead to fewer attacks.



I am honest very shocked by the amount of people who think its a good idea, lets make posting rumours a competitin!

I am honestly shocked at the amount of people who think this somehow creates a competition. There are no prizes involved. No reward for being the most accurate rumor monger. This isn't keeping score. Its just providing information for the benefit of people who don't have the time to comb through thousands of posts in rumor threads and to help defuse the mob mentality that perpetuates false impressions about some rumor mongers.

Quark
09-10-2012, 15:31
E: thread refresh fail, my point was posted right above me!

MiyamatoMusashi
09-10-2012, 15:53
Just remember, all rumors "leaked" have been sanctioned by GW.

"All"? No.

logan054
09-10-2012, 15:56
That's what's been happening for the last few years. Having evidence that you have been more or less accurate REDUCES the attacks on reliable informants. Now when someone attacks stickmonkey by saying he never gets anything right, we can say "yes he does, see here", which will lead to fewer attacks.

Evidence? sorry, some guy hears something, he posts it and then suddenly he gets put up on some league table? attacks? who's attacking who? why is anyone attacking anyone over rumours? seriously, what is wrong with your people? You know I was disappointed about the legion rumours, when I sat down and thought it, it was far to good to be true, I should have known, thats my own fault, was DG lying? who knows, I can't see what he would actually gain by lying about it, as I said before, he wasn't that far off with the WoC rumours last time round. People should be attacking guys posting rumours simply because its wrong, that is incredibly sad, so now we have a table so we can justify attacks on certain people? No good will come of something like this.


This isn't keeping score.

How is a table that say Rumour dude 1 got X correct, y wrong and z half right not keeping score? please, can you explain this to me? It's not going to defuse anything, it just means new rumour mongers are going to be less likely to post.


Oh no! It might convince people to give us more reliable rumours, and stop giving us bad rumours!

The Horror!

Yes because rumours are notorious for being reliable, because that is what the word rumour implies doesn't it ;) If you want facts, don't read rumours.


Or it might convince genuine, reliable sources not to be so forthcoming if they know they are going to be endlessly scrutinised, attacked and ultimately judged by non-contributing, entitled busy-bodies.

But, you know, just be snarky about it.

People will see how this isn't a good thing when the rumours start to dry up

pretre
10-10-2012, 14:25
People will see how this isn't a good thing when the rumours start to dry up

Funny that you mention that since rumor mongers have come to me directly as a result of posting the tracker. Whitehat in particular had a lot of good confirmations/new information before 6th and he came straight to the tracker thread to post it.

logan054
10-10-2012, 17:50
Funny that you mention that since rumor mongers have come to me directly as a result of posting the tracker. Whitehat in particular had a lot of good confirmations/new information before 6th and he came straight to the tracker thread to post it.

I also recall seeing hasting said he wouldn't have started posted rumours if this kind of thing had been in place. As I said, I saw a comment about forcing ghost and DG out of the game, so why pretend it's something its not? why even call them rumours? lets call it facts of upcoming releases? rumours are what they are, you don't need some silly score board, it hasn't been needed for he last 5+ years.

pretre
10-10-2012, 18:53
... As I said, I saw a comment about forcing ghost and DG out of the game, so why pretend it's something its not? ... rumours are what they are, you don't need some silly score board, it hasn't been needed for he last 5+ years.

Forcing people who post incorrect information to boost their internet cred out of the game is certainly not a bad thing. If it hasn't been needed for the last 5 years, why do we always see people misattributing information to the wrong rumor monger or faulting a monger's record when they have a good one.

Examples:
Someone quite vehemently told me that they don't trust Stickmonkey because ADB outed him for not actually being in meetings at GW. That was, of course, ghost21 and not stickmonkey.
Others have railed against Beasts of War, Stickmonkey, Tasty, etc because they perceived them as spreading disinformation. The tracker shows that this is simply incorrect.

logan054
10-10-2012, 19:38
Forcing people who post incorrect information to boost their internet cred out of the game is certainly not a bad thing. If it hasn't been needed for the last 5 years, why do we always see people misattributing information to the wrong rumor monger or faulting a monger's record when they have a good one.

Internet cred.... wtf? who the hell cares what some random guy across the otherside ofthe planet thinks? Do you think I could give a damn what some guy in America thinks of me? I'm sorry, but this whole concept is amusing at best. I don't think you understand the concept of what a rumour is, ignoring ghost, people are just posting what they hear (some may make it up, but you know, some people are full of *****), now how is someone to know if the information is true or not? I'm sorry, but this whole thing seems so self-righteous, like you have some little holy crusade going on!

pretre
10-10-2012, 19:50
Internet cred.... wtf? who the hell cares what some random guy across the otherside ofthe planet thinks?
Apparently people like ghost21 care. ;)

I don't think you understand the concept of what a rumour is, ignoring ghost, people are just posting what they hear (some may make it up, but you know, some people are full of *****), now how is someone to know if the information is true or not? I'm sorry, but this whole thing seems so self-righteous, like you have some little holy crusade going on!
I know exactly what a rumour is. The idea is that we should have a way of knowing who has good sources and who doesn't. So when someone posts up pages of info on how the Chaos Legions dex is going to be awesome and here are all the rules, we can all just nod and say 'Sure... Just like your last rumor, right?'.

To turn the argument around:
who the hell cares what some random guy across the otherside of the planet writes about rumor mongers?' Why do you give a damn about what I am writing in another forum? I'm sorry, but this whole concept is amusing at best. I don't think you understand the concept of what the rumor tracker is, people are just posting the rumors they hear and whether they end up true. I'm sorry but this whole things seems so self-righteous, like you have some little holy crusade against the tracker going on.

Wintermute
10-10-2012, 19:59
Forcing people who post incorrect information to boost their internet cred out of the game is certainly not a bad thing. If it hasn't been needed for the last 5 years, why do we always see people misattributing information to the wrong rumor monger or faulting a monger's record when they have a good one.

Examples:
Someone quite vehemently told me that they don't trust Stickmonkey because ADB outed him for not actually being in meetings at GW. That was, of course, ghost21 and not stickmonkey.
Others have railed against Beasts of War, Stickmonkey, Tasty, etc because they perceived them as spreading disinformation. The tracker shows that this is simply incorrect.

And its for these reasons the tracker is a very good idea and a very useful tool.

Wintermute

Tavendale
10-10-2012, 20:40
I just feel that for me, the tracker is a bit. I don't know, overly serious about little rumours concerning the oh-so-serious business of toy soldiers.

That's not to denigrate those in the hobby, I love my hobby. I just think people take all this too seriously.

That said, I get that other people are in the hobby for different reasons or want different things out of it, so if this helps them enjoy their hobby, then sure, go for it :)

Konovalev
10-10-2012, 21:02
The way I see it.
People release rumors, true or false: Great, fuel for discussion on upcoming releases
People don't release rumors: Great, business will carry on as usual via wishlisting and houserule creation.

It's not like the models/rules won't be released or we will somehow miss out if no one leaks them. Rumors are just icing, a little something extra, be they true or false. I really don't see what the big deal is. People cling to rumors entirely to much.

Mastodon
11-10-2012, 06:52
I just think the whole thing reeks of the self entitlement the rumour mill feels is owed to them.

Scammel
11-10-2012, 09:49
I just think the whole thing reeks of the self entitlement the rumour mill feels is owed to them.

Well, I think people should be entitled to make their own judgements based off available information and the tracker assists with this. I also think people have the right not to be blatantly lied to, as Ghost was clearly doing (or else he wouldn't have had such an exchange with a certain BL author).

theDarkGeneral
12-10-2012, 18:27
Such a fascinating topic...on such a simple subject.

With SOOOOOO much information (both accurate and inaccurate) that is posted on the internet, I would like to think something as so non-consequential as gaming rumors wouldn't be such an easily heated debate. Yet more often then not, especially more recently, the scrutiny of any kind of "future" info is quite intense. Why do ya'll think that is?

I have some ideas and theories, but without being warned for language or content, i'll just share a couple thoughts.

PASSION: Many gamers are quite passionate about their particular hobby, weather it's collectible card gaming, role-playing, video games, table top miniatures, etc., they all have a high level of emotion attached to it. Often this passion can be angered or excited depending upon potential CHANGE that can take place that affects their gaming. Hearing that your fave online gaming is dropping half of it's characters in favor of new ones can easily **** most off, causing a flood of hate (e)mail and even players quiting the game...yet it's simply just a rumor that has yet to see fruition. And even if said rumor shows some merit of truth, or worse yet none at all, the gamer(s) often stay miffed and are keenly awaiting more "bad news".

This of course flows the other direction for favorable or beneficial news. If as a Magic: the Gathering player you hear that the Arabian Nights & Antiquities sets are being re-released in Collector's Edition, you'd probably get quite excited and you and your buddies would have many many many discussions of possible card combos, themed decks, and the pride of owning old school rare cards. (though in re-printed format)


As one poster has already touched upon, I suppose the reasoning behind players posting up rumors can be questioned. Why is it that they(we) do it? Is it for recognition amongst the gaming/internet community? Is it to simply share exciting possible news? Are they trying to de-rail or jump on a band wagon? Maybe they're bored? Perhaps they're genuinely trying to be helpful?


So we have people who are passionate about their particular hobby/gaming being affected by other posters rumored info because it's either news they want to hear or don't want to hear. Sounds a lot like NFL Football when I hear another one of my team's players is injured! LMAO!!!


Personally I feel that as I read rumors from ANY poster, it's up to me as an adult and long time player to accept them for what they are...just rumors. Sometimes they're dead on accurate and this is always an awesome thing! Often they're a lil' foggy but close to the final product. This too is very helpful. And there are plenty that are lost in the warp or perhaps created from it! Either way I appreciate those who take the time (and lately the courage) to post them up. No one is getting paid (that I know of) for posting up the info, and depending on it's source and accuracy can be potentially dangerous for particular employees of said gaming companies.



In the end some players see the accuracy charts as witch hunting, others as helpful, and yet still some could care less. I think the way that Warseer (and Harry in particular) has handled such info was much more proffesional and courteous then other sites. But again as another poster has already mentioned, if members feel they will be overly haggled for posts on potential rumor info they've heard from "a drinking buddy", "fork lift driver", "girl dating the garbage man", etc. we will more then likely see a large decline in rumors...this to me would be a loss to the community.


Looking forward to the new Daemons!!!! ;)

ogretyrant
12-10-2012, 18:58
^ Well said that man!

Sent from my GT-P5110 using Tapatalk 2

pretre
12-10-2012, 21:55
So we have people who are passionate about their particular hobby/gaming being affected by other posters rumored info because it's either news they want to hear or don't want to hear. Sounds a lot like NFL Football when I hear another one of my team's players is injured! LMAO!!!
Well written, but ultimately misses the mark. From what I can see, the idea you are getting at is that people track rumors because they are passionate and they are passionate because rumors are either news they want to hear or news they don't want to hear. I mark rumors that I dislike TRUE just as I mark rumors that I was pulling for FALSE. Really has little to do with it.

I am passionate because I enjoy the game of 40k and I enjoy the 40k communities that I participate in. I dislike seeing constant misinformation (unrelated to rumors) being spewed about and combat that a fair amount in other posting (Ex: People who post things like "OMG, Matt Ward ruined the SW Codex!"). When the same kind of garbage came up with rumors ("OMG, Stickmonkey is never right, why do we listen to him?") there were less facts available to point to and say "No, actually, he is right quite a bit." in the same way that I can point at the first page of Codex:SW and say "No, actually Ward didn't ruin this book." Hence, the tracker. Forcing false sources out of posting rumors (the thing that logan loves to harp on) is just a pleasant side effect of the process.


In the end some players see the accuracy charts as witch hunting, others as helpful, and yet still some could care less. I think the way that Warseer (and Harry in particular) has handled such info was much more proffesional and courteous then other sites. But again as another poster has already mentioned, if members feel they will be overly haggled for posts on potential rumor info they've heard from "a drinking buddy", "fork lift driver", "girl dating the garbage man", etc. we will more then likely see a large decline in rumors...this to me would be a loss to the community.
I think there's a sideways jab here, but that's okay. If you feel that someone saying that your posts are true or false after the fact is overly haggling, then you might be a bit sensitive. I highly value the people who bring us real information and doubt that folks who do bring real information are going to stop because of a list that says they are right most of the time.

Either way, great post TDG.

t-tauri
13-10-2012, 08:05
A number of posts removed. Please keep inside the posting guidelines.

xxRavenxx
13-10-2012, 09:06
If you feel that someone saying that your posts are true or false after the fact is overly haggling, then you might be a bit sensitive.

I think you miss the mentality of being judged.

Many people would not like the idea of standing trial for their rumours. This system is that. Someone going through your words with a fine toothed comb, and judging not just the rumor, but every sentence, every phrase, every minutiae of its detail, and then judging your worth based on it.

I've thrown up some trade information before, and rumours based on items vanishing from the GW trade lists. I did it to be helpful. I have no further inclination to do such a thing now that these checks are being carried out.

To put it in a colourful metaphor:

I'm not an organ grinder's monkey, and I do not have to dance for strangers.


I'm sure the drips of information I've had will be no loss, but I wonder what will happen if say, Hastings. (Name chosen for no particular reason.) decided to stop for similar reasons?

theDarkGeneral
13-10-2012, 11:08
@Pretre: Actually no jab was intended towards you our how/why you conduct your list. It was actually aimed elsewhere but i have to be mindful of what i say in direction of a particular member. I appreciate the compliment on my view, thank you.

Craze_b0i
13-10-2012, 13:21
Personally I think the hobby would be just as good with no rumours whatsoever, you would still get all the information: when GW release the product.

*The only helpful element really is when you are thinking of buying a model kit and hear they are about to release a new one so think "maybe I'll wait for the new one and see if it looks better" or "I'll wait for the new one because then I can get it in plastic". Otherwise it's all... meh.

However if we are going to have rumours then it makes sense to try and get some indication as to which sources are more accurate.

the anti santa
13-10-2012, 13:40
I think you miss the mentality of being judged.

Many people would not like the idea of standing trial for their rumours. This system is that. Someone going through your words with a fine toothed comb, and judging not just the rumor, but every sentence, every phrase, every minutiae of its detail, and then judging your worth based on it.



True, and I think another risk is that it discourages people from giving details they are less certain about if every bit will be scored and judged.

So rather than passing on "A new Space marine codex will be out July 2014 with a new plastic Rhino, 2 pt reduction for assault marines, a new type of terminator with different weapons and rules for a space sharks special character that lets you fight games underwater" they'd hedge their bets and say something like "There will be a new Marine codex in the next 3 years with some new units point reductions and characters".

The 2nd option tells us nothing we couldn't guess ourselves but would give more right answers in the survey.

Craze_b0i
13-10-2012, 15:35
Except the survey already accounts for rumours too vague to qualify. This point is already addressed.