PDA

View Full Version : How long do you think Age of Sigmar will last?



Emperor Karl Franz
01-07-2015, 02:49
So would anyone like to take a guess at how long Age of Sigmar will last before it's pulled from shelves, or if it'll be pulled from shelves? Personally, I suspect that in about two-and-a-half years GW will permanently can Age of Sigmar. I presume that because of the supposed two-year lead time for products, so they're probably working on things right now which they want to release in Summer 2017. I figure GW will need about six months of living with it to realize what kind of stinker they have on their hands, so I see them making the decision to axe the game by the end of the year and only put out what they've still got waiting in the wings before shelving the game completely. So two-and-a-half years. So does anyone else want to take a guess at a time frame, or maybe you think it'll succeed? Let's make predictions and see how things turn out. And who knows? Maybe if the game tanks we can pull this thread back up for a laugh and see who made the most accurate predictions. So have at it.

forseer of fates
01-07-2015, 02:56
I think they will support it for a year or so, then u turn to proper 9th ed.

Voss
01-07-2015, 03:18
Til stock runs out. 4+ years might as well not be options on the poll. That isn't in the cards for anything GW makes anymore*, even successes. 2, maybe 3 years tops before recycling editions.
So I'll vote for 24-30, just because they'll need to sink resources into replacing it, or let it dribble out completely.


*except for things like Bretonnians, which GW would rather see burned.

ShruikhanTK
01-07-2015, 03:50
I think AoS will replace popular games such as CoD and break world sales records. We are entering into a golden age of plastic models, we are going to see a trilogy of movies featuring sigmar vs chaoz. Then in a decade they will release a based on a true story movie about the brave folks over at GW that risked it all and changed the world forever. It will be nominated for best picture.



1 year

DrWilhelm
01-07-2015, 04:10
6-12 months. That's probably erring on the harsh side, but I just don't see how the game (as presented by what's been confirmed so far) could possibly remain popular for long.

ChargeAndDie
01-07-2015, 04:15
it will survive as long they keep pumping out pretty models. People tend to underestimate how many people buy the models for the aesthetics alone.. That being said, it won't thrive unless there is some semblance of comp or point system as tourneys are basically the only form of 'marketing' they have.

GrandmasterWang
01-07-2015, 05:37
3.2 years is my guess.

Even if rules are crap I see the box set being pretty good value for those who like the models and selling ok

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

eddyh59
01-07-2015, 05:45
Isn't it already dead? Not yet maybe but I give it 12 months tops before the only releases are Sigmarines and Chaos.
Adjust the cards to suit 40K and Fantasy fades into the past.

Wesser
01-07-2015, 06:59
I consider it the entry level game.

Seriously. The starting set is created to be affordable as to try and minimize entry barriers, and all old models can still be used - which is ofc to keep current gamers interested and allowing former players to pick it up.

GW probably envision how is goes like: "If you want to try and the hobby, just buy AoS and see if it's for you. The rules are fairly simple, and gives you a great introduction to the world of Warhammer".



Realistically however, it seems to have no tournament application and seems to have about the same level of strategy and tactics as 40k minus the listbuilding. My sources at least tells me that AoS isn't going to be the only way to play "warhammer". The coming couple of months should reveal more

AngryAngel
01-07-2015, 07:20
They'll press on at least a year, even if it bombs out totally.

StygianBeach
01-07-2015, 08:22
The rule set looks solid, so I guess things are up to the fluff/design team to keep it going.

Whirlwind
01-07-2015, 08:35
18 - 24 months at the earliest. If you assume a production cycle of 12 months then the next 12 months of models are probably all there waiting to go. Designing and creating new models would probably take another six months. As such there are probably already 18 months worth of models in the pipeline. You then have to assume at least six months until some looks at the sales figures and comes to the "oh no" realisation. Hence 24 months is the earliest before they would terminate it.


The rule set looks solid,

I'm not so sure, there was someone that played a mock game and reported back in the topic, that has now been locked, that the gameplay is a bit of a mess when it comes down to it. Things like a flying shooting unit (such as the jump pack sigmarines) can always outmanoeuvre ground based troops (and if they don't have shooting themselves) then the unit just shoots and moves until everyone on the opponents side is dead.

Spiney Norman
01-07-2015, 08:37
Surely they could make the game work just by doing a truck load of testing and adding points values to the warscrolls?

Then again if the initial release Bombs I expect that won't occur to them as the reason

UnsafeNormal
01-07-2015, 08:40
Surely they could make the game work just by doing a truck load of testing and adding points values to the warscrolls?

Then again if the initial release Bombs I expect that won't occur to them as the reason

GW seems to believe quite stubbornly that the only reason they're losing money is they aren't making quality enough models.

StygianBeach
01-07-2015, 08:43
Surely they could make the game work just by doing a truck load of testing and adding points values to the warscrolls?

Then again if the initial release Bombs I expect that won't occur to them as the reason

Yeah, even if all Warscrolls were 1 point and just had a number limit like in Saga. 4 Elite = 1 point. 8 Warrior = 1 point, etc...



I'm not so sure, there was someone that played a mock game and reported back in the topic, that has now been locked, that the gameplay is a bit of a mess when it comes down to it. Things like a flying shooting unit (such as the jump pack sigmarines) can always outmanoeuvre ground based troops (and if they don't have shooting themselves) then the unit just shoots and moves until everyone on the opponents side is dead.

I see, well I think flying units are a problem in 8th, so it would not surprise me if it was also a problem in Sigmarhammer.

Still, one should not make up ones mind from only one isolated example. More examples please!

MiyamatoMusashi
01-07-2015, 08:46
Well, Warhammer Visions is the worst thing GW have ever done, and evidently enough idiots are still buying it for it to still be going strong after a year and a half. I have to presume AoS will keep going forever, because even though it's about to become the new worst thing GW have ever done, apparently that doesn't dissuade people.

StygianBeach
01-07-2015, 08:48
Well, Warhammer Visions is the worst thing GW have ever done, and evidently enough idiots are still buying it for it to still be going strong after a year and a half. I have to presume AoS will keep going forever, because even though it's about to become the new worst thing GW have ever done, apparently that doesn't dissuade people.

Worse than finecast? Wow, that is a dire prediction.

Soulless
01-07-2015, 08:48
It wont't get pulled down - it will be bigger hit then WFB as it hits the spot with little kids. They will make ruleset with all complicated rules in about 3-5 years when target group (11 - 12) will be big enough to grasp them. This change is driven not by hobbyst from design team but reather a new product menager that has proven himself in the market.

Whirlwind
01-07-2015, 08:50
Still, one should not make up ones mind from only one isolated example. More examples please!

Quite true. I presume by the weekend we will have more views on the game once the rules and warscrolls have been released. It's just concerning as generally first impressions last the longest and bias a persons view (and hence takes a long time to remove the stigma). It's a bit like finecast; even if the new models they created now were perfect, it is still going to be tarnished with the stigma of the poor early releases. And how long did finecast really last, probably about two years before they started scaling it down?

Montegue
01-07-2015, 08:54
The rule set looks solid, so I guess things are up to the fluff/design team to keep it going.

I nearly spit out my coffee.

Semper fi
01-07-2015, 08:54
European Commission Preisdent Jean-Claude Juncker resently told the Greeks ""You shouldn't commit suicide out of fear of death." Someone should apperantly told GW the same...

Kahadras
01-07-2015, 09:01
I'd give it a couple of years. I honestly don't think it's going to do that well more due to the compertition in the skirmish minature game market than anything else. We'll have to see though. I've no plan to pick it up and I haven't heard of anybody in my club talking about starting either.

MiyamatoMusashi
01-07-2015, 09:04
Worse than finecast? Wow, that is a dire prediction.

I had apparently blocked Finecast from my mind.

Alright, fair enough, FC was worse than WV... and FC is basically dead and gone. So the worst thing GW have ever done died, but the second-worst thing they've ever done hasn't. AoS is still about to become the new worst thing... will it die or not!? Oh, the drama!

Avian
01-07-2015, 09:11
The thing about this is that they don't NEED to keep ANYTHING in print. They just need to have the files on the website (essentially free) and making production runs of the models that sell. If something sells really well, they'll put it in stores, if it sells okay they'll only have it available from the website, and if it doesn't sell well it's gone forever.

As far as I can understand it, that is the entire reasoning - the game isn't popular enough to keep entire armies in stock and up to date, so they wanted a system where this wasn't necessary.

So it will last as long as at least one box of models sees enough sales to make it worth their time to cast up more of it.

That could be a while.

Bloodknight
01-07-2015, 09:43
2-3 years till it implodes.

xenofexx
01-07-2015, 09:54
Very difficult to take a guess at its longevity without knowing exactly what Age of Sigmar is intended to be.

Is it just a simple starter set, meant to create hype and a player-base for a more fleshed-out version of the game soon to follow?

Or have we in fact seen the whole iceberg already, and the only thing following will be more minis to use?

Sete
01-07-2015, 10:09
According to the panic I have seen around here, it already failed lol

UnsafeNormal
01-07-2015, 10:25
They'll certainly push out the first few months of content, then 40k Tau will happen and I assume that will be their time to assess the damage.

I'm more worried about what happens after AoS fails, will we get a real 9ed? Or is Fantasy just gone forever?