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Humanoid
01-12-2015, 13:03
The end of the 2014-2015 financial half year was 30 November 2014, and its report was released on 13 January 2015. With the start of December 2015, the financial half year end for 2015-2016 has arrived. According to GW, the financial report for the 2015-2016 financial half year will be released in January 2016.

Here's the threads of my incomplete lists for the new GW products in the 1st half year and 2nd half year of the 2014-2015 financial year:
http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?402912-2014-2015-1st-Half-New-Products-Contemplation
http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?409637-2014-2015-2nd-Half-New-Products-Contemplation

Here's my incomplete list of the new GW products in the 1st half of the 2015-2016 financial year:

06 Jun 2015
- £25 Space Marine Assault Squad
- £15 Transfers: Ultramarines, Blood Angels, Dark Angels (Online Only)
- £8 Upgrades: Ultramarines, Blood Angels, Space Wolves, Dark Angels
13 Jun 2015
- £100 Codex: Space Marines Imperial Fists Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 400
- £100 Codex: Space Marines Iron Hands Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 400
- £100 Codex: Space Marines Raven Guard Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 400
- £100 Codex: Space Marines Salamanders Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 350
- £100 Codex: Space Marines Successors Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 400
- £100 Codex: Space Marines Ultramarines Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 450
- £100 Codex: Space Marines White Scars Limited edition (WEBSTORE EXCLUSIVE) 350
- £35 Codex: Space Marines
- £28 Space Marine Devastator Squad (5 32mm round bases)
- £60 Blood Angels Battleforce: Captain, Tactical Squad (10), Furioso Dreadnought
- £60 Dark Angels Battleforce: Bikes (3), Attack Bike, Land Speeder
- £60 Space Marine Battleforce: Captain, Tactical Squad (10), Dreadnought (includes 11 32mm round bases)
20 Jun 2015
- £18.50 Space Marine Librarian in Terminator Armour
27 Jun 2015
- £100 Codex: Dark Angels Reclausiam Edition 900
- £35 Codex: Dark Angels
- £18 Dark Angels Interrogator-Chaplain
04 Jul 2015
- £175.50 The Hammer of Caliban (DA formation: 1 Land Raider, 3 Predators, 5 figurines)
- £95 Windrider Battlehost (1 Farseer Skyrunner, 1 Vyper Jetbike and 9 Windrider Jetbikes)
11 Jul 2015
- £75 Warhammer Age of Sigmar Starter Set
- £0 Warhammer Age of Sigmar Rules and Warscrolls Compendiums - PDF released on Sat 04 Jul 2015
18 Jul 2015
- £80 Warhammer Age of Sigmar Limited Edition (Online Only) 2,000
- £45 Warhammer Age of Sigmar
- £30 Stormcast Eternals Liberators (5 miniatures)
- £20 Stormcast Eternals Lord - Celestant (1 miniature)
25 Jul 2015
- £35 Baleful Realmgates (2 gates)
- £25 Ophidian Archway (1 archway)
- £23 Stormcast Eternals Lord-Castellant (1 lord and 1 hound)
01 Aug 2015
- £30 Stormcast Eternal Judicators (5 miniatures)
- Citadel Oval Bases: 60x35MM, 90x52MM, 75x46MM
08 Aug 2015
- £35 Stormcast Eternal Paladins/Retributors/Decimators (5 miniatures)
- £35 Numinous Occulum
- £30 Dragonfate Dais
15 Aug 2015
- £35 Khorne Bloodhound Bloodreavers (20 miniatures)
- £45 The Realmgate Wars: Quest for Ghal Maraz
- £90 The Realmgate Wars: Quest for Ghal Maraz Limited Edition 1,000
22 Aug 2015
- £17 Exalted Deathbringer
29 Aug 2015
- £37.50 Khorne Bloodhound Blood Warriors (10 miniatures)
- £20 Battletome: Chaos Dreadhold
- £45 Chaos Dreadhold: Skull Keep
- £60 Chaos Dreadhold: Malefic Gate (1 gate, 2 wall sections, and 1 bridge)
- £80 Chaos Dreadhold: Overlord Bastion
- £15 Chaos Dreadhold: Fortress Wall (1 wall section) (online only)
05 Sep 2015
- £48 Celestant-Prime (100mm round base)
- £142.60 Citadel Air Complete Set (51 colors stated in description, 1 250ml pot of airbrush cleaner)
- £2.55 per pot Citadel Air (52 colors)
12 Sep 2015
- £85 Battletome: Stormcast Eternals Limited Edition 1,000
- £35 Battletome: Stormcast Eternals
- £35 Prosecutors with Celestial Hammers or Stormcall Javelins (3 miniatures)
- £25 Knight Azyros/Venator
19 Sep 2015
- £18 Knight-Vexillor (1 miniature)
- £15 Knight-Heraldor (1 miniature)
26 Sep 2015
- £85 Battletome: Khorne Bloodbound Limited Edition 1,000
- £35 Battletome: Khorne Bloodbound
- £60 Khorne: Mighty Skillcrushers (6 miniatures)
- £34.50 Khorne: Wrathmongers (5 miniatures)
- £18 Khorne: Skarr Bloodwrath
- £18 Khorne: Slaughterpriest
- £18 Khorne: Skullgrinder
03 Oct 2015
- £80 Khorne: Skarbrand
10 Oct 2015
- £90 KV128 Stormsurge
17 Oct 2015
- £45 XV95 Ghostkeel Battlesuit
- £20 Pathfinder Team (10 pathfinders, and 3 drones: Pulse Accelerator, Grav-inhibitor, Recon)
24 Oct 2015
- £95 Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart (9-miniature fortification)
- £30 Tau Empire Fire Warriors/Breachers (10 miniatures and 2 drones)
- £65 Infiltration Cadre Burning Dawn (19-miniature Tau and 32-page book)
- £85 Shadow Force Solaq (12-miniature Raven Guard Strike force and 32-page book)
31 Oct 2015
- £110 Codex: Tau Empire Ghostkeel Edition 1500
- £30 Codex: Tau Empire
- £45 War Zone Damocles: Kauyon
- £45 XV8 Crisis Battlesuit Team (3 battlesuits and 6 drones)
- £30 Tau Empire Commander (1 battlesuit: XV-85 Enforcer Armour Crisis or XV86 Coldstar, and 1 drone)
- £7 Tau Drones (2 drones)
07 Nov 2015
- £35 Tau Empire Tidewall Gunrig
- £32 Tau Empire Tidewall Shieldune
- £30 Tau Empire Tidewall Droneport
- £85 Battletome: Seraphon (Limited Edition) 1000
- £30 Battletome: Seraphon
- Repackaged Seraphon: Saurus Warriors, Skinks, Basiladon, Stegadon, Carnosaur, Saurus Knights, Saurus Guard, Terradon Riders
- Repackaged: Skink Starpriest
14 Nov 2015
- £95 The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth (38 miniatures)
21 Nov 2015
- paint
28 Nov 2015
- £125 War Zone Damocles Limited Edition 1250
- £90 War Zone Damocles: Mont'ka and Kauyon
- £195 Chaos Dreadhold Helfort
- £150 Relicos Militarum
- £135 Space Marines Battle Demi-Company (42 miniatures)
- £130 Adeptus Mechanicus Battle Maniple (32 miniatures)

The pre-order starts on 28 Nov 2015 for the following product release:
05 Dec 2015
- £100 Archaon Everchosen (1 "miniature" on 160mm round base)

Ramblings
I did not buy any of the new products which were released in the 1st half of the 2015-2016 financial year. Another half year has passed while I wait for Genestealer Cult miniatures.

Age of Sigmar. I was hoping that AoS would be a product that would scratch my itch for a fantasy miniatures game, but it did not. However, I have never been more entertained for so long by the discussion of a product on the forums than I have been by AoS. Just reading the posts about AoS consumed my leisure time, and caused me to falter on my leisure-time projects. Thankfully, since I have no interest in AoS, my interest in the forum discussion of AoS is slowly fading, but, really, a good civil adversarial point and counterpoint discussion is enjoyable to read.

The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth. I cannot remember exactly where I read it and by whom, but I believe that HH:BaC was developed by the Forge World design studio before the official creation of the Specialist Product Design Studio. In my understanding, the GW core business is turning plastic into gold, and not into silver nor copper, whereas FW uses resin. The rumors have HH:BaC to be the first in a line of products that GW will pinch (or order) from the Specialist Product Design Studio for the GW big plastic product pipeline. I will probably be more interested in which products are selected to be deemed gold worthy rather than the products themselves.

I compared the GW product release lists for the 2014-2015 2nd half and the 2015-2016 1st half to see if I got a sense of which half year did better in turning plastic into gold. Overall, from the forums and whether a limited product sold out and how quickly, I get the feeling that the 2014-2015 2nd half did better for massive enthusiastic buying than the 2015-2016 1st half. However, nothing to do now but wait for GW to release their 2015-2016 1st half financial report in January 2016, and to see what the business experts say about the numbers.

HappyDad
01-12-2015, 21:31
Lol; I love your point about how following the AoS debate online has filled your leisure time. I am not the only one then. I have spent more time reading AoS posts than painting and playing put together since AoS drop (bombed) in July.

Seriously though, I 'used' to buy GW stuff, regularly. Looking over your list of products there, I can remember following the release of each one, pondering for a few seconds and thinking, "Nah, not for me." I would then look up the price out of interest, and breath a sigh of relief that I did not like the product!

I was looking forward to AoS, until I saw what it was. Have not bought a WFB product since then.

I was mildly interested in BaC. I liked the Heresy novels and was looking for a reason to collect / paint / play some 40k again, particularly with my son, who is now 6 and ready to start gaming :@) However, BaC missed me. I don't want a boardgame, the price was way too high for what you get in the box and I actually thought the models were kinda dull. At a glance they look more like regular space marines to me - same bolters, same back packs, same armour, same static 80's He_Man poses. Even the Contemptor looks a bit plain and lacking detail compared to most of the lovely FW ones. Suffice to say, I won't be buying that either.

I have been a GW customer for 3 decades. But now, with the most disposable cash to spend that I have ever had, GW are not producing anything I want to buy. I have wondered if my tastes have changed, but no, I pretty much want the same thing now that I did when I was 9. :@) And for many, many years, GW delivered.

I know I am not alone here. So the bottom line is, GW MUST be hurting. I wonder to what extent they will be able to spin figures to try and hide it from the share holders. Heaven forbid they should admit there is something wrong with their business model.

In the meantime, £80 for 3 Chaos Knights anyone?

Drakkar du Chaos
01-12-2015, 22:55
The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth. I cannot remember exactly where I read it and by whom, but I believe that HH:BaC was developed by the Forge World design studio before the official creation of the Specialist Product Design Studio.

It's from Hastings.


In the meantime, £80 for 3 Chaos Knights anyone?

No thanks.

Dryaktylus
01-12-2015, 22:55
Haven't bought anything of the releases, too. And I too wait for the 'Stealers (with mixed feelings, though). I'd buy the plastic Enginseer, more than one actually - but not this bundle.

I assume BaC sells (very) well, Tau too. AoS... my brother played some games in the FLGS, but with his WHFB models (and I guess his opponents did the same) and the free rules - so no sales for GW.

Promethius
01-12-2015, 23:19
I bought age of sigmar. Regretted it almost immediately and have brought fantasy models since but only if of fear they would go out of production. Gw killed an ip and for what - loads of embittered vets and very few if any new converts.

stevegill
02-12-2015, 12:11
I bought age of sigmar. Regretted it almost immediately and have brought fantasy models since but only if of fear they would go out of production. Gw killed an ip and for what - loads of embittered vets and very few if any new converts.
It's pretty obvious that they killed it so they don't have to support it any more. Any gain after that is a bonus.

Zywus
02-12-2015, 13:54
It's pretty obvious that they killed it so they don't have to support it any more. Any gain after that is a bonus.
Naw, they hoped for AoS to take off. They have designed a fair bit of new models and printed loads of material. If it was just cutting Fantasy off it would have been a lot cheaper to just come out and say that there won't be any more editions, keep selling the models as long as the molds hold up and put all resources to making 40k stuff.

OnT.
I've only gotten the BaC box. It had decent to good value IMO. (Especially since I managed to sell off the characters and some of the regular marines for a good price.)

dangerboyjim
02-12-2015, 21:27
Yeah they have invested a huge amount of money in AoS, two new model lines (so far), some scenery and a load of art and novels, books etc. that weren't be cheap to make. It's not like they didn't try.

If only they'd invested some of that money in market research.

I suspect the financial report will show they did sell some AoS, and they wouldn't need to sell much to outsell fantasy. And BoC will have been flying off the shelves. Add in the new knight models, ad mech and Tau plus the ever popular marines and suspect they haven't done too badly, nowhere near what a semi competent organisation could be doing, but probably enough to keep going.

NoobLord
02-12-2015, 22:21
First things I will check out:

1. the overall sales figure (and the trend over the last 4 or 5 reports)
2. the amount invested in this period (if significantly less than before then a very bad sign)

Actual profit after tax is a less illuminating figure for me.

Malagor
03-12-2015, 02:36
I suspect the financial report will show they did sell some AoS, and they wouldn't need to sell much to outsell fantasy.
Considering Fantasy was a profitable line(just not profitable enough for GW) it did stand for a part of GWs profits(some say 10-15% of it). Sure it doesn't beat 40k but it's still a good part of it.
So I think it would be tough to outsell fantasy especially with the manner that they went about trying to do it.
Even if AoS reaches Fantasy's level it should be considered a huge failure since they destroyed a well-established world and destroyed the community for no advantage whatsoever.
And not sure if Tau was a big hit. Sure the new book is nice but considering the limited edition is still available for the GW online store for my country and the 6e book was gone in minutes once preorders got up and with 6e models got sold out.
Remember that the codex and several of their kits, both old and new took weeks before my local gamestore could even give those that preordered their items so the demand this time was easily not as big this time.
I don't think any of it has been that big of a hit except for BoC box(40k space marines I can imagine probably did decent), that's their only saving grace this half and they will have that to thank.

Humanoid
11-12-2015, 00:40
If I understand correctly, then GW does a report for the first half of the financial year, and then does an annual report for the financial year which includes the 1st half. On the release of the report for the financial 2015-2016 1st half year, I am hoping that someone can extract the financial 2014-2015 2nd half data from the financial 2014-2015 annual report. Thus, we would have three consecutive half years to examine and compare with the GW product releases for the following half years:
- 2014-2015 1st: 02 Jun 2014 to 30 Nov 2014
- 2014-2015 2nd: 01 Dec 2014 to 31 May 2015
- 2015-2016 1st: 01 Jun 2015 to 29 Nov 2015

WFB
http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?291796-Games-Workshop-Fantasy-Releases-Timeline-(Mk-II) I looked at this thread to identify when the last WFB release occured, that is, May 2014 with Wood Elves which was in the financial 2013-2014 2nd half year, and not part of the above three consecutive financial half years.

Even though there were no WFB releases during the three consecutive financial half years, from reading the forums, there were GW customers buying WFB products to complete their WFB armies or, for example, buying GW fantasy miniatures for Kings of War.

STANDALONE GAMES
In each of the three consecutive financial half years, a standalone game was released as follows:

2014-2015 1st: £75 Space Hulk on 20 Sep 2014
2014-2015 2nd: £75 Assassinorum: Execution Force on 02 May 2015
2015-2016 1st: £95 The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth on 14 Nov 2015

Which of the above standalone games was a better seller for sales revenue than the other?

Space Hulk is not available on the GW website.
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Assassinorum-Execution-Force - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Horus-Heresy-Betrayal-at-Calth-ENG - Still available on 09 Dec 2015

The rumor mill had another production run scheduled for HH:BaC in January 2016.

Regardless of which one was a better seller for sales revenue, I hope that we can all agree that the above three standalone games were all 40K "complementing" games, that is, the miniatures from the above standalone games could be used in 40K, and they did not distract the 40Ker permanently away from 40K. Whether a 40Ker jumps to 30K or not is a different issue than playing a standalone game.

One item of fascination for me was the price for HH:BaC. In the above prices for the three standalone games, it is £20 above the other two, and there was a December issue of Warhammer Visions where the price was £115 and not £95.

RELEASE WEEKS
Admittedly, my data recording for the financial 2014-2015 1st first half year was deficient, but that is not enough to stop me to try to dig some information out of the data.

I start with the observation that the fantasy releases of WFB, The End Times, and Age of Sigmar did not overlap in a financial half year. The three consecutive financial half years under analysis have The End Times and Age of Sigmar as follows:
- 2014-2015 1st half: New product releases of The End Times start
- 2014-2015 2nd half: New product releases of The End Times end
- 2015-2016 1st half: New product releases of the Age of Sigmar start

Next, I identify the weeks by release type, for example, 40K, The End Times, and Age of Sigmar. Sometimes, I had to make a judgement call as to what type of release for a week when the release week contained a mix. 40K was identified if present, unless it was something such as a repacking release of parts from the Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart. I ignored The Hobbit. I counted up the releases in consecutive chunks by type as follows:

2014-2015 1st half: 8+3+3=14 40K, 3+3+1=7 ET, 1 Space Hulk, 4 unknown
2014-2015 2nd half: 3+5+4+4=16 40K, 3+4=7 ET, 1 A:EF, 2 none
2015-2016 1st half: 5+4+1=10 40K, 13+1=14 AoS, 1 HH:BaC, 1 paint


Although the Bloodthirster was in the 2014-2015 2nd half and was probably bought by many 40Kers, I included its release week as a type of The End Times.

I put the types of release weeks in table form as follows:


-------------------RELEASE TYPE------------------
Total 40K ET AoS Game Paint None Unknown

2014-2015 1st 26 14 7 1 4

2014-2015 2nd 26 16 7 1 2

2015-2016 1st 26 10 14 1 1


What jumps out at me is 14 weeks for the number of release weeks of Age of Sigmar. And, that is double the number of release weeks of The End Times in a half year. In effect, that means less release weeks of 40K. Of course, GW could of compensated with the loss of the 40K release weeks somehow such as pumping more 40K product releases in a 40K release week, but the GW sales pipeline is only so big.

LIMITED EDITION BOOKS
I see the limited edition books as a luxury product, and luxury products often come with a substantial price for the customer, and a substantial profit for the retailer.

2014-2015 1st Half: 40K

£100 * 2000 - Codex: Orks Warboss Edition
£150 * 500 - Codex: Space Wolves Wolf Guard Edition
£110 * 1000 - Codex: Space Wolves Long Fang Edition
£65 * 1500 - Codex: Grey Knights Limited Edition
£150 * 500 - Codex: Dark Eldar Archon Edition
£110 * 1000 - Codex: Dark Eldar Dracon Edition

£667,500 = £200,000 + £75,000 + £110,000 + £97,500 + £75,000 + £110,000

2014-2015 1st Half: The End Times

£100 * 750 - Warhammer: Nagash Limited Edition
£100 * 500 - Warhammer: Glottkin Limited Edition (Note: I believe the price is correct.)
£??? * ??? - Warhammer: Khaine Limited Edition (I will use £100 * 500 for discussion purposes.)

£175,000 = £75,000 + £50,000 + £50,000 (Using £100 * 500 for Khaine.)

2014-2015 2nd Half: 40K

£100 * 1500 - Codex: Blood Angels Sanguinary Guard Edition
£100 * 1000 - Codex: Necrons Cryptek Edition
£125 * 1000/900 - Codex: Harlequins Troupe Master Edition (I will use £125 * 1000 for discussion purposes.)
£100 * 888 - Codex: Khorne Daemonkin Skulltaker Edition
£100 * 900 - Codex: Skitarii Rustalker Edition
£100 * 800? - Codex: Craftworlds (Farseer Edition)
£100 * 900 - Codex: Cult Mechanicus Dominus Edition

£723,800 = £150,000 + £100,000 + £125,000 + £88,800 + £90,000 + £80,000 + £90,000

2014-2015 2nd Half: The End Times

£100 * 500 - Warhammer: Thanquol Limited Edition
£150 * 500 - Warhammer: Archaon Limited Edition

£125,000 = £50,000 + £75,000

2015-2016 1st Half: 40K

£100 * 400 - Codex: Space Marines Imperial Fists Limited edition
£100 * 400 - Codex: Space Marines Iron Hands Limited edition
£100 * 400 - Codex: Space Marines Raven Guard Limited edition
£100 * 350 - Codex: Space Marines Salamanders Limited edition
£100 * 400 - Codex: Space Marines Successors Limited edition
£100 * 450 - Codex: Space Marines Ultramarines Limited edition
£100 * 350 - Codex: Space Marines White Scars Limited edition
£110 * 1500 - Codex: Tau Empire Ghostkeel Edition
£125 * 1250 - War Zone Damocles Limited Edition

£596,250 = £40,000 + £40,000 + £40,000 + £35,000 + £40,000 + £45,000 + £35,000 + £165,000 + £156,250

http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Codex-Tau-Empire-Ghostkeel-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Warzone-Damocles-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015

2015-2016 1st Half: Age of Sigmar

£80 * 2000 - Warhammer Age of Sigmar Limited Edition
£90 * 1000 - The Realmgate Wars: Quest for Ghal Maraz Limited Edition
£85 * 1000 - Battletome: Stormcast Eternals Limited Edition
£85 * 1000 - Battletome: Khorne Bloodbound Limited Edition
£85 * 1000 - Battletome: Seraphon (Limited Edition)

£505,000 = £160,000 + £90,000 + £85,000 + £85,000 + £85,000

http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Stormcast-Eternals-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Khorne-Bloodbound-LTD-ED - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Seraphon-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015

Half Years Comparison

2014-2015 1st Half: £842,500 = £667,500 40K + £175,000 ET
2014-2015 2nd Half: £848,800 = £723,800 40K + £125,000 ET
2015-2016 1st Half: £1,101,250 = £596,250 40K + £505,000 AoS

I see three things at work here. One, the limited edition books for sale at the end of the financial 2015-2016 1st half year did not sell out. (I believe that all limited edition books sold out in the previous two financial half years.) Two, the GW expectation was to have sales revenue in AoS limited books comparable to 40K. And, three, the increase in the amount of sales revenue expected from the limited edition books from the 2014-2015 2nd half to the 2015-2016 1st half is quite a significant increase, that is, £252,450.

SURPRISE
2015-2016 1st: £95 Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart

From my notes, the Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart sold out on the day that it went up for preorder on the GW website, Sat 17 Oct 2015. The separate parts of the Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart (Gunrig, Shieldline, and Droneport) were released on 07 Nov 2015, and are still available.

For the Chaos Dreadhold, the separate parts were released on 29 Aug 2015, and are still available as is the combination of Chaos Dreadhold parts called the Helfort.

http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Chaos-Dreadhold-Helfort - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Relicos-Militarum - Still available on 09 Dec 2015

My conclusion is that Tau players would rather buy a Tidewall Rampart than a Codex: Tau Empire Ghostkeel Edition. If I was a Tau player and those were my two options, then I would buy the Tidewall Rampart too.

THOUGHTS
I have to stop myself from speculating, and to wait for the financial report for the 2015-2016 1st half. However, having done the above, I get the sense that the financial 2015-2016 1st half year performed well below GW expectations.

Zywus
11-12-2015, 01:03
That's some serious work put in there Humanoid:eek:

It's getting late here so I won't have time to digest all that info until later but at least at first glance at least, it looks like a very good summary of the releases during these latest financial periods.

jtrowell
11-12-2015, 10:20
About the Age of Sigmar limited editions, please note that those that are no longer sold have been removed from the store without having sold out (probably because having a limited edition still available several month after its release was giving a bad image and hurting the "buy it now it's limited !" trend)

stevegill
11-12-2015, 10:36
Man, that's some excellent analysis

SURPRISE
2015-2016 1st: £95 Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart

From my notes, the Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart sold out on the day that it went up for preorder on the GW website, Sat 17 Oct 2015. The separate parts of the Tau Empire Tidewall Rampart (Gunrig, Shieldline, and Droneport) were released on 07 Nov 2015, and are still available.
...
My conclusion is that Tau players would rather buy a Tidewall Rampart than a Codex: Tau Empire Ghostkeel Edition. If I was a Tau player and those were my two options, then I would buy the Tidewall Rampart too.
I must admit to being shocked that the Ghostkeel Edition is still available given how quickly limited editions that I expected to have less appeal sold out (Harlequins, Mechanicus, even Dark Eldar). Has the urge for shinies fallen away or are many people hoping they'll be getting it for Xmas so didn't order it?

Karegak
11-12-2015, 13:18
I bought age of sigmar. Regretted it almost immediately and have brought fantasy models since but only if of fear they would go out of production. Gw killed an ip and for what - loads of embittered vets and very few if any new converts.

Me too. Unfortunately, I'm sure those sales will be interpreted by GW as AoS sales when they're most certainly not.

Humanoid
14-01-2016, 21:57
UPDATE
From:
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Stormcast-Eternals-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Khorne-Bloodbound-LTD-ED - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Codex-Tau-Empire-Ghostkeel-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Seraphon-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Warzone-Damocles-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Dec 2015
To:
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Stormcast-Eternals-Limited-Edition - Sold Out on 09 Jan 2016
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Khorne-Bloodbound-LTD-ED - Sold Out on 09 Jan 2016
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Codex-Tau-Empire-Ghostkeel-Edition - Still available on 09 Jan 2016
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Battletome-Seraphon-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Jan 2016
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Warzone-Damocles-Limited-Edition - Still available on 09 Jan 2016

GW 2015-2016 1st Half Financial Report
Just remember, I am not a business expert, just someone who is trying to compare apples-to-apples and oranges-to-oranges. So, what some of you business experts may see in a blink of an eye within a report, I need to take my time and lay the numbers out so I can understand them.

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2015-16-Press-Statement.pdf With the release of the report for the 1st half of the 2015-2016, I want to crunch those numbers with the numbers from past reports.

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Games-Workshop-Group-13-combined-FINAL-without-title-page.pdf has a graph with the sales revenue of the half and annual sales revenue for the 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 financial years, including the 1st half and 2nd half numbers for the sales revenue of each of these years. I took the 1st half and annual sales revenue from the more recent financial reports, thus, 2nd half sales number is the annual number minus the 1st half number. With all of those numbers, I presented them as follows with the sales revenue from the 2015-2016 1st half:


EXTERNAL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
----------------------------------- FINANCIAL YEAR -----------------------------------
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

Y Value 125.7 126.5 123.1 131.0 134.6 123.5 119.1
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
H Value 61.2 64.5 62.5 64.0 60.0 63.1 62.7 68.3 67.5 67.1 60.5 63.0 56.5 62.6 55.3

Where:
- "Y Value" is the annual sales revenue for the financial year.
- "H Value" is the sales revenue for the 1st and 2nd halves of the financial year.

The above numbers for the sales revenue were not telling me much. I needed some products as reference points and the difference in the sales revenue between consecutive years and consecutive halves as follows:


EXTERNAL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
----------------------------------- FINANCIAL YEAR -----------------------------------
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

Y Diff 0.8 -3.4 7.9 3.6 -11.1 -4.4

Y Value 125.7 126.5 123.1 131.0 134.6 123.5 119.1
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
H Value 61.2 64.5 62.5 64.0 60.0 63.1 62.7 68.3 67.5 67.1 60.5 63.0 56.5 62.6 55.3

H Diff 3.3 1.5 3.1 5.6 -0.4 2.5 6.1
-2.0 -4.0 -0.4 -0.8 -6.6 -6.5 -7.3
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
40K 5th ^^^^
WFB 8th ^^^^
40K 6th ^^^^
40K 7th ^^^^
ET start ^^^^
ET end ^^^^
AoS start ^^^^
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

Where:
- "Y Diff" is the difference in sales revenue between two consecutive annual financial years.
- "H Diff" is the difference in sales revenue between two consecutive halves of the financial years.


There is a pattern that has the 2nd half (Dec-May) of a financial year performing better than the 1st half (Jun-Nov) of the financial year. Even with no new product releases for two weeks around Christmas, my guess is that Christmas shopping still brings in the money.

I put this here as a reminder for the time when we look at the 2015-2016 annual report for the 2nd half ...
http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?416154-GW-6-month-financial-report&p=7590894&viewfull=1#post7590894
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/08/games-workshop-fails-weave-christmas-magic "Sales fell at its global network of 430 shops, ..."

Something happened with the sales revenue to make the three consecutive halves in the high 60s stand above the others, that is, 2011-2012 2nd half with 68.3, 2012-2013 1st half with 67.5, and 2012-2013 2nd half with 67.1.

I looked at the threads for the 40K and WFB product releases. I saw nothing in those product releases that explained to me why those three consecutive halves stood above the others. And, 6th edition 40K was released in the middle of those three consecutive halves, and not at the first of those three consecutive halves. So, in my view, 6th edition 40K was not the root cause for the three consecutive halves in the high 60s standing above the others.

I skimmed through the financial reports to see if I could find an answer.

PAINT
Page 5 of the 2011-2012 Annual Report has the following:


In April 2012, we relaunched our Citadel paint range to broad acclaim. The range was extended from 75 to 145 paints to provide Hobbyists with a complete painting system of highly technical paints that deliver excellent results.

To give you an idea of how well the new Citadel paints were received by Hobbyists, the launch generated £2.75 million sales of paint in April alone. Of the 2.3 million pots that were dispatched from Lenton, some 2 million have already been sold. In sales to independent stockists all of the initial batch of 1,600 display racks sold through and we have had to order a further 600 racks to satisfy demand. We put a Direct bundle deal on our web store of the complete set of 145 paints priced at £333 and all 1,000 bundles sold out within a few days.

Looks like the selling of paints in April 2012 did provide a big boost to the sales revenue. As I remember, people were scrambling to buy the old paints before the new paints arrived to ensure any army that they had which was painted with the old paints could be updated using the old paints. Sure, the "1,000 bundles" probably went direct to the end customers, but most of the paint sales to the independent stockists would mean many, many paint pots which were sold to the independent retailers would be sitting on the rack for a long period of time until bought by the end customers.

For me, the "£2.75 million sales of paint" and any ordinary sales fluctuations were not enough of a reason for the 5.6 difference between 2011-2012 1st half with 62.7, and the 2011-2012 2nd half with 68.3. Something else was also the reason, and that appeared to be in the financial report.

DISTRIBUTOR SQUEEZE
Page 2 of the 2011-2012 Annual Report states the following:


Looking closely at the trend lines reveals interesting strategic information. The gradient of the US growth changed dramatically when we switched from using distributors to going direct to retailers; if you are considering such a move, do not hesitate.

OK, what was the result? I took the "US growth" meaning to be growth in the sales revenue for North America. Here's the numbers that I dug up:


EXTERNAL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
----------------------------------- FINANCIAL YEAR -----------------------------------
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

Y UK 31.0 31.6 30.9 28.5
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
H UK 14.9 16.1 14.8 16.8 15.6 15.3 13.7 14.8


Y NA 30.2 33.6 36.6 32.6
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
H NA 14.5 15.7 15.4 18.2 18.0 18.6 15.7 16.9

where:
- "Y UK" is the UK annual sales revenue for the financial year.
- "H UK" is the UK sales revenue for the halves of the financial year.
- "Y NA" is the North America annual sales revenue for the financial year.
- "H NA" is the North America sales revenue for the halves of the financial year.

For comparison purposes against the North America numbers, I used the UK numbers. The UK numbers are somewhat consistent while the North America numbers do have a spike, specifically, between the 2011-2012 1st half with 15.4 and the 2011-2012 2nd half with 18.2. That is a £2.8 million increase in sales revenue which could be the effect of having "switched from using distributors to going direct to retailers".

If I add this £2.8 million to the "£2.75 million sales of paint" to get £5.55 million, then that seems to cover the difference between the 2011-2012 1st half with 62.7 and the 2011-2012 2nd half with 68.3, that is, £5.6 million.

What about the two halves of the 2012-2013 financial year? The 2012-2013 1st half has 67.5, and 2012-2013 2nd half has 67.1. There was no mega-paint sale during these two halves, so what made the 2011-2012 2nd half spike become a plateau in 2012-2013? Once again, I went back to the financial reports.

Page 3 of the 2012-2013 Annual Report states the following:


That small increase in sales (3% or so) is a mix of strong performance in our more hobby oriented Forge World and Black Library businesses (our ĎOther businessesí) and the North American region and less good performances in Continental Europe and the UK.

So, it appears to me that there was a combination of factors during the halves of the 2012-2013 financial year for sales revenue which replaced the "£2.75 million sales of paint" in the 2011-2012 2nd half.

INDEPENDENT RETAILER SQUEEZE
Page 3 of the 2012-2013 Annual Report states the following:


During the last year we have introduced and delivered our new trade standards for our independent stockists. The aim is to get those products that will sell the fastest into whatever space the independents will allow us. That way their stock turn will rise and we will have more re-orders. It seems so obvious that it shouldnít need saying, but we deal in a product that sometimes allows passions to over-rule commerciality. Many of our independent stockists and our own sales people are fans as well as customers and it helps all round if we have a system that emphasises sales potential over aesthetics.


There seems to be a double meaning to the above quote. If one looks at the sales revenue of £134.6 million for the 2012-2013 year and compares it to £131.0 million for the 2011-2012 year (plus the high level of sales revenue in North America), then it does seem that GW is working in harmony with the independent stockists. However, if one looks under the covers, then one has to remember things such as the following:

http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?365177-Independent-retailers-take-action-against-GW
http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?367641-GW-banning-all-online-sales-in-North-America
http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?367935-Miniwargaming-closing-because-of-GWs-new-trade-agreement

The 2012-2013 Annual Report was released on 30 Jul 2013. The following March 2013 notification from GW went into effect on 15 Jun 2013:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/wn5gq2srlbvxs6l/mhXkq4nVgZ GW Trade Documents

After squeezing out the distributors, GW put the squeeze on the online discounters, at least those in North America. And, the squeeze of the online discounters must have been a contributing factor to the £11.1 drop in annual sales revenue between 2012-2013 with £134.6 and 2013-2014 with £123.5. In effect, GW took away a "point and click" discount which buyers liked from online discounters.

2014-2015 2nd HALF
Why does the 2014-2015 2nd half have a high increase of sales revenue with 6.1 between the 1st half with 56.5 and the 2nd half with 62.6? Sure, the pattern seems to be that the 2nd half incurs a boost in sales revenue in relation to the 1st half because of Christmas shopping. But, 6.1 seems too much for Christmas shopping as the sole factor.

The End Times started in the 1st half, and ended in the 2nd half. With the release of three books (Nagash, Glottkin, and Khaine) in the 1st half and of two books (Thanquol and Archaon) in the 2nd half, The End Times should of had a larger sales revenue in the 1st half than the 2nd half if we use the limited edition books as a measurement as follows:

2014-2015 1st Half: £175,000 ET
2014-2015 2nd Half: £125,000 ET

Something other than The End Times produced the boost to sales revenue in the 2014-2015 2nd half.

If I look at the 40K releases for the 2014-2015 2nd half, then I see the new codex armies of Harlequins, Khorne Daemonkin, Adeptus Mechanicus: Cult Mechanicus, and Adeptus Mechanicus: Skitarii. Whereas Harlequins and Khorne Daemonkin were extracted from Eldar and Chaos, the Ad Mech stuff was brand new.

In addition to Christmas shopping, I see all four of these new codex armies, especially the Ad Mech stuff, being the contributing factors to the high increase of sales revenue between the 1st half with 56.5 and the 2nd half with 62.6.

THOUGHTS
The raw numbers show me a sharp decline in sales revenue after the 2012-2013 financial year.

However, after doing the above analysis and focusing on miniatures and armies rather than paints and sales pipeline squeezing for sales revenue, I feel that the decline in sales revenue of the core product has been in progress well before the 2012-2013 financial year.

Each of us who dropped out as a significant GW customer have contributed in our own way and at our own time. I bought most of the codicies for 5th edition 40K, and played 5th. I bought a few codicies for 6th edition 40K, but never played 6th. I have not bought anything for 7th edition 40K other than Dark Vengeance 2014, nor played 7th. (I wanted a 7th edition rulebook for reference purposes and more Chaos Cultists which I got from Dark Vengeance 2012.)

With GW converting to a report using sales channels, I want to do an apples-to-apples and oranges-to-oranges comparison using sales channels. So, I have another post to follow. If I have made a mistake, then please correct me.

Humanoid
26-01-2016, 14:07
TRADE, RETAIL, and MAIL ORDER
http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Games-Workshop-Group-14-combined-FINAL-cover-version.pdf
Page 7 of the 2013-2014 Annual Report states the following:


Sales by channel
42% (2013: 43%) of sales were made through our own stores. 36% (2013: 37%) of sales were to independent retailers and 13% (2013: 11%) mail order. We are moving to this method of counting sales but we are also publishing sales by region, as we have in the past. Next year it will be by channel only.

I underlined part of the above quote to show that some of the historical data is no longer applicable (at least for me) in trying to analyze how GW is doing.

2013: 43% + 37% + 11% = 91%
2014: 42% + 36% + 13% = 91%

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/May-15-stats-final-27-July-15-with-cover.pdf
Page 7 of the 2014-2015 Annual Report states the following:


Sales by channel
42% (2014: 42%) of sales were made through our own stores, 37% (2014: 38%) of sales were to independent retailers and 21% (2014: 20%) mail order.

2014: 42% + 38% + 20% = 100% <---- different/restated percentages from 2013-2014 Annual Report
2015: 42% + 37% + 21% = 100%

This change to subdividing the sales revenue to only by channel effectively causes my analysis window to slide to start with the 2013-2014 financial year as follows:


EXTERNAL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
-------- FINANCIAL YEAR -------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
--------- --------- ---------

Y Diff -4.4

Y Value 123.5 119.1
--------- --------- ---------
H Value 60.5 63.0 56.5 62.6 55.3

H Diff 2.5 6.1
-6.5 -7.3
--------- --------- ---------
40K 7th ^^^^
ET start ^^^^
ET end ^^^^
AoS start ^^^^
HH:BaC ^^^^
--------- --------- ---------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
--------- --------- ---------

In the above table, I added the HH:BaC standalone game as a marker for the start of GW promoting 30K using HH:Bac plastic miniatures through the GW product pipeline.

Page 41 of the 2014-2015 Annual Report states the following:


Sales channels. These channels sell product to external customers, through the Groupís network of retail stores, independent retailers and directly via the global web store. The sales channels have been aggregated into segments where they sell products of a similar nature, have similar production processes, similar customers, similar distribution methods, and if they are affected by similar economic factors. The segments are as follows:

- Trade. This sales channel sells globally to independent retailers and also includes the Groupís magazine newsstand business and the distributor sales from the Groupís publishing business (Black Library).
- Retail. This includes sales through the Groupís retail stores, the Groupís visitor centre in Nottingham, and global exhibitions.
- Mail order. This includes sales through the Groupís global web stores and digital sales through external affiliates.

If I understand correctly, then the 2014-2015 Annual Report states the Forge World sales revenue in the sales channel of mail order, and restates the 2013-2014 sales revenue using the same sales channels for comparison purposes.

I used the data from the second page of the 2014-2015 Half-Yearly Report, from page 41 of the 2014-2015 Annual Report, and from the 2015-2016 Half-Yearly Report. I had to be wary of restated numbers. I took the 1st half and annual numbers from the reports, thus, the 2nd half number is the annual number minus the 1st half number. With the numbers, I created the following:


EXTERNAL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
-------------- FINANCIAL YEAR -------------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
------------- ------------- -------------

Y Value 123.501 119.132
------------- ------------- -------------
H Value 60.481 63.020 56.503 62.629 55.259

Y Trade 46.903 43.940
------------- ------------- -------------
H Trade 23.332 23.571 21.967 21.973 22.418

R Stores 414 418
Y Retail 51.974 49.597
------------- ------------- -------------
H Retail 24.913 27.061 23.406 26.191 21.457

Y Mail 24.624 25.595
------------- ------------- -------------
H Mail 12.236 12.388 11.130 14.465 11.384

------------- ------------- -------------
40K 7th ^^^^^^
ET start ^^^^^^
ET end ^^^^^^
AoS start ^^^^^^
HH:BaC ^^^^^^
------------- ------------- -------------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
------------- ------------- -------------
where:
- "Y Value" is the annual sales revenue for the financial year.
- "H Value" is the sales revenue for the 1st and 2nd halves of the financial year.
- "Y Trade" is the annual sales revenue from independent retailers for the financial year.
- "H Trade" is the sales revenue from independent retailers for the halves of the financial year.
- "Y Retail" is the annual sales revenue from GW stores for the financial year.
- "H Retail" is the sales revenue from GW stores for the halves of the financial year.
- "Y Mail" is the annual sales revenue from mail order for the financial year.
- "H Mail" is the sales revenue from mail order for the halves of the financial year.
- "R Stores" is the number of GW stores at the end of the financial year.

The above table contains restated numbers as follows:
- the 2015-2016 half year report restates the half year numbers for "Six months to 30 November 2014"
- the 2014-2015 annual report restates the full year numbers for "Year ended 1 June 2014"
- the 2014-2015 half year report restates the half year numbers for "Six months to 1 December 2013"


One thing that I could imagine is many parents or relatives going into a GW store on a quest to buy a Christmas present for a youngster. I cannot imagine many parents or relatives going into an independent retailer on a quest to buy a GW product as a Christmas present for a youngster, or not enough to have a significant impact in the numbers. Thus, having the 1st and 2nd half numbers within a financial year being near the same for Trade, and having the 2nd half numbers greater than the 1st half within a financial year for Retail, seems quite logical to me. It is the numbers for the Mail Order that have me perplexed, and only having two full financial years of numbers does not help.

One possibility with store closings or the conversion to 1-man GW stores is that the GW store is no longer available or accessible, and the parent or relative resorts to using GW mail order to purchase the Christmas present for a youngster. I do not think that this switch of parent or relative from a brick and mortar GW store to mail order is the cause for the increase in the 2nd half mail order in the 2014-2015 financial year, but it is a possibility.

RETAIL
I wanted to dig a little deeper into the sales revenue by region for the retail channel. Page 8 of the 2014-2015 Annual Report has the number of GW stores at the end of the financial year as follows:


-----GW Stores----
May 2014 May 2015
-------- --------
UK 142 142
NA 87 84
Eur 141 145
Aus 40 43
Asia 4 4
-------- --------
Total 414 418
-------- --------

If I go to the GW website, and search for a store in New Zealand, than I get Games Workshop Lower Hutt. My conclusion is that "Australia" in the above table should be replaced by "Australia and New Zealand", as the region of "Australia and New Zealand" is used in other sections of the reports. Also, the above table uses Europe and not Continental Europe, but the UK has its own entry. My conclusion is that "Europe" in the above table should be replaced by "Continental Europe", as the region of "Continental Europe" is used in other sections of the reports.

I used the 2014-2015 Half Yearly Report and page 42 of of the 2014-2015 Annual Report. I took the 1st half and annual numbers from the reports, thus, the 2nd half number is the annual number minus the 1st half number. With the numbers, I created the following:


RETAIL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
-------------- FINANCIAL YEAR -------------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
------------- ------------- -------------
R Stores 414 418
Y Retail 51.974 49.597
------------- ------------- -------------
H Retail 24.913 27.061 23.406 26.191 21.457

Stores UK 142 142
Y UK 16.631 17.496
------------- ------------- -------------
H UK 8.023 9.473 7.776

Stores CE 141 145
Y CE 16.349 13.879
------------- ------------- -------------
H CE 6.844 7.035 5.116

Stores NA 87 84
Y NA 9.981 9.806
------------- ------------- -------------
H NA 4.486 5.320 4.438

Stores ANZ 40 43
Y ANZ 5.555 5.619
------------- ------------- -------------
H ANZ 2.714 2.905 2.350

------------- ------------- -------------
40K 7th ^^^^^^
ET start ^^^^^^
ET end ^^^^^^
AoS start ^^^^^^
HH:BaC ^^^^^^
------------- ------------- -------------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
------------- ------------- -------------

Note: The above table is incomplete as Asia and Non-Core were not included.

The above table contains restated numbers as follows:
- the 2015-2016 half year report restates the half year numbers for "Six months to 30 November 2014"

In the above table, the number of retail stores have increased, and their yearly sales revenue has decreased. If I look at the half-year pairings in a financial year, then I see a low-high pairing on a gradual decline between pairings of the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 financial years. With GW warning of poor Christmas sales revenue with their retail stores during 2nd half 2015-2016, then one possibility is flat retail sales revenue for the 2015-2016 halves which means a sales revenue decline around £2.1m (27.061 - 24.913), or £2.8m (26.191 - 23.406). Have to wait for the 2015-2016 Annual Report to see.

MAIL ORDER
The GW report for the 1st half of the 2015-2016 financial year contained the following on the 10th page:


Restated
Six months to Six months to Year to
29 November 30 November 31 May
2015 2014 2015
GBP000 GBP000 GBP000
Mail order
Citadel and Forge World 9,508 8,961 21,120
Non-core mail order 1,876 2,169 4,475
------------- ------------- -------------
Total Mail order 11,384 11,130 25,595

I wish that Citadel and Forge World mail order were separate numbers rather than combined, however, I will take as much of a breakdown as I can get. That's not a lot of numbers, but the numbers have to start somewhere as follows:


EXTERNAL SALES REVENUE
£000,000
-------------- FINANCIAL YEAR -------------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
------------- ------------- -------------

Y Mail 24.624 25.595
------------- ------------- -------------
H Mail 12.236 12.388 11.130 14.465 11.384

C+FW 21.120
------------- ------------- -------------
8.961 12.159 9.508

N-Core 4.475
------------- ------------- -------------
2.169 2.306 1.876

------------- ------------- -------------
40K 7th ^^^^^^
ET start ^^^^^^
ET end ^^^^^^
AoS start ^^^^^^
HH:BaC ^^^^^^
------------- ------------- -------------
2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
------------- ------------- -------------

What caused the increase between the 2014-2015 1st half and 2nd half for mail order with Citadel and Forge World (from 8.961 to 12.159)? Was it GW? Was it FW?

I have no idea about FW products. I looked through the GW new product releases for the 2014-2015 1st and 2nd half financial years to see if there was something that could of tipped the balance to the 2nd half. "The Hobbit: Smaug" at £295 each. Naw, couldn't be. I did the math ...

(£12,159,000 - £8,961,000)/£295 = £3,198,000/£295 = 10,840 Smaugs

How many Smaugs did GW sell during the 2nd half of the 2014-2015 financial year? The release day for Smaug was 13 Dec 2014, so the pre-order day was 06 Dec 2014. The original offering was as follows:


There are only 200 Webstore Exclusive Smaugô miniatures available before christmas. Order yours today and receive a free upgrade to courier delivery, complete with a tracking number for extra peace of mind.

As I look through my notes, I have the following:

11 Dec 2014 - £295 The Hobbit: Smaug "Temporarily out of stock"

December 2014 was the first month of the 2nd half of the 2014-2015 financial year, so there were still five months remaining in 2015 for the 2nd half of the 2014-2015 financial year.

I did not pay any attention at the time, but GW was doing a countdown of its most popular miniature of 2015:
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/672927.page GWs 28 most popular miniatures of 2015
http://www.dakkadakka.com/s/i/at/at2/2016/1/1/f4e77c64bdd41bd9ad0a29d0449726df_77206.png from page 9 of the thread

The product description of Smaug had the following:


This magnificent 42 piece miniature is hand cast using the highest quality resin (the same used by Forge World), and the most advanced techniques to produce a model with extremely fine detail. Every scale, horn and battle-scar has been expertly reproduced to create a beatifically authentic collectors piece.

There is that phrase of "the same used by Forge World" in the above quote. In effect for me, Smaug was/is a FW product which was sold through the GW sales pipeline, and not the FW sales pipeline.

continued ...

Humanoid
26-01-2016, 14:12
FORGE WORLD
The question of "How many Smaugs did GW sell during the 2nd half of the 2014-2015 financial year?" could probably best be rephrased to "What is the sales revenue from FW mail order?".

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Games-Workshop-Group-14-combined-FINAL-cover-version.pdf The 2013-2014 Annual Report has pie charts on page 7. The pie slices for sales revenue by channel are as follows:
- 42% Hobby Centres
- 36% Trade
- 13% Mail Order
- 9% Forge World and Black Library

With a sales revenue of £123.5m for 2013-2014 from the 2013-2014 Annual Report, that means Mail Order had £16m with 13% (and Forge World and Black Library had £11m with 9%). Within the pie slices of the 2013-2014 Annual Report, I interpret Mail Order meaning GW only, and not FW.

Here is where I start mixing apples and oranges to get a rough estimate for discussion purposes. If I take the £16m annual sales revenue from the 2013-2014 Annual Report as GW-only mail order, and subtract it from the £21,120,000 annual sales revenue for "Citadel and Forge World" mail order from the 2014-2015 Annual Report, then I get a rough estimate of £5m in annual sales revenue from Forge World.

So, I believe that FW was not the cause of the increase between the 2014-2015 1st half and 2nd half for mail order with Citadel and Forge World (from 8.961 to 12.159).

FORGE WORLD MAIL ORDER
http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/May-15-stats-final-27-July-15-with-cover.pdf
Page 6 from the 2014-2015 Annual Report states:


Forge World mail order store. To protect our sales we are building a new Forge World mail order store on the same platform and hosting environment as our Citadel mail order store and migrating all products and imagery. It is on track with a scheduled go live date in the summer of 2015. It will cost £1.1 million.


http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2015-16-Press-Statement.pdf
Third page of the 2015-2016 financial report for the 1st half states:


Forge World mail order store - this store was launched in August 2015 on time and within cash limits.


I do not have a GW account, nor do I have a FW account. Thus, I have not done a mail order through the websites with GW or FW, but I wonder what the differences are if any between the two for mail order. I look at the GW website several times during a week, especially to see what the new products are. I have only looked at the FW website a few times in the past.

I went to the GW website. If I select the "Delivering to:" button on the GW website, then I get product prices for the destination country when I view the products. The explanation on the GW website is follows:
http://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Taxes-and-Charges


Games Workshop is an international business and has to comply with tax legislation in all the territories in which it trades. The taxes that apply to you transaction are determined by the destination to which the goods are being shipped (see also the note on web store pricing).



Games Workshop prices are quoted on its web stores in accordance with the requirements in the country of the web store. These are as follows:

US and Canadian Web Stores
All prices are quoted exclusive of any taxes. If any sales taxes apply to an order these will be an additional charge. These are determined by the destination to which the goods are sent (see taxes that apply to your purchase).

European and Australian Web Stores
All prices are quoted inclusive of the VAT or GST that applies in the country of the web store (e.g. the French web store prices include French TVA).

Looks to me that buying GW products by GW mail order is straight foreward in one's country for the available countries.

I went to the FW website. If I select the "Delivering to:" button on the FW website, then I get product prices in Pounds Sterling when I view the products regardless of the selection of the destination country. The explanation on the FW website is follows:
http://www.forgeworld.co.uk/en-GB/Paying-for-your-order


All our prices are displayed with our products throughout the website. All prices are in Pounds Sterling (GBP £).

We will charge your credit or debit card in Pounds Sterling (GBP £). If you live outside the UK we recommend you check with your credit card company regarding any charges you may incur for currency conversion. We will display the full price of your order (including shipping and handling) before you submit your order to us.


For me, if GW is an international business, then FW is a national business which ships internationally. Based on what I see with the "new Forge World mail order store", GW has kept FW as a national business.

THOUGHTS
In the past, GW has squeezed out distributors and online discounters. I believe that GW could have more FW sales revenue if GW had changed FW from a national business to an international business. (I can see one reason why GW did not do the change because GW probably sees the investment of the change will not yield enough of a return. And/Or, GW has defined itself as the international business, and FW as the national business, and GW wants to keep the separation.)

FW has been given the Specialist Games. FW has 30K, and GW has started to promote 30K using HH:BaC plastic miniatures through the GW product pipeline. GW has sold hand-casted-FW-resin Smaug through the GW sales pipeline.

This is the contradiction that I see. ... GW has kept FW as a national business which keeps a leash on FW sales revenue, but GW has enhanced the product opportunties for FW.

Have international customers balked at starting 30K because 30K is available only through FW? Will international customers balk at buying a Specialist Game from GW knowing that "accessories" are available only through FW?

Interesting times ahead.