just so you know, this is in no way a proffessional analysis, just a single persons veiw on GW and the mini industry in general
there are many GW naysayers around at the moment, (more specifiacally being more verbal at the moment) due to the price changes, but lets be honest here, the prices arent as dramatic as they have been in previous years, and are infact pretty meagre (how many russ' is the average player going to own?), but natrully the doomsayers come out proclaiming the end of GW, lets face it, IF they did go bust (which is not gonna hapen any time soon, there still making huge profits, just not as much as they where) it would ruin the industry, the vast majority of gamers come in to the hobby through GW, and them going bust would be massivly damaging.
personnally i belive the LotR "bubble" thing is GW covering there backs to investers, which is a shame, because its going to alienate alot of potential players against the system(which in my my opinion is gw's best).
40k is growing stagnent, while i still love the fluff, GW is flooding the system with carbon copys, the thing that has really put me off is the tau (arguably the most origional race in the game) becoming gothic like the other 14 armys, games are now becoming rediculous with power creep, while models are starting to have lax sculpting quality (with the occasional exception).
fantasy is holding its own, but 7th ed could make it or break it (especially seeing as the system works extremly well at presant), sculpt quality is more or less the same as 40k (ie: plastics vary dramatically, with the occasional amazing sculpt)
outside of GW there seems to be problems due to GW elitisim (tell someone a model is in production by gw, and theyll love it, then tell them who actually makes it and theyll go back on what they said) mongoose publishings starship troopers has had tremendous success (showing GW you dont need hype from a movie to sell games) the only flaw being the lack of factions, which if mongoose are smart they will remedy.
privateer press have been very daring of late, with the book apotheosis being a risky endeavour (yet succesful due to thier loyal fanbase) hordes will succede due to the fanbase pp has, the question is will it get PP a broader player base?
rackham is a intresting case, theyve failed to translate any systems to english succesfully, yet still manage to maintain popularity due to thier amazing sculpts generating a high impulse buy responce (ive noticed mainly dedicated painters buy these models)
flames of war is enjoying its normal popularity, with an increasing player base, theyve managed what was thought to be impossible by having a mix of historical and fantasy wargamers join in.
infinity is going to be the big game this year, its barely been released and has had huge success already, should be an intresting year for them.
so, this year i belive we will see:
starship troopers breaking into mainstream
hordes will get a small minority into PP, but theyll maintain the success theyve had
infinity will be a runaway success
7th ed will make GW either unbeatable, or put them in serious trouble (although that may take a year or two)
thanks for reading, and i would value your comments