a perceived opinion on GW (and the industrys) state

[watcher]

just so you know, this is in no way a proffessional analysis, just a single persons veiw on GW and the mini industry in general

there are many GW naysayers around at the moment, (more specifiacally being more verbal at the moment) due to the price changes, but lets be honest here, the prices arent as dramatic as they have been in previous years, and are infact pretty meagre (how many russ' is the average player going to own?), but natrully the doomsayers come out proclaiming the end of GW, lets face it, IF they did go bust (which is not gonna hapen any time soon, there still making huge profits, just not as much as they where) it would ruin the industry, the vast majority of gamers come in to the hobby through GW, and them going bust would be massivly damaging.

personnally i belive the LotR "bubble" thing is GW covering there backs to investers, which is a shame, because its going to alienate alot of potential players against the system(which in my my opinion is gw's best).

40k is growing stagnent, while i still love the fluff, GW is flooding the system with carbon copys, the thing that has really put me off is the tau (arguably the most origional race in the game) becoming gothic like the other 14 armys, games are now becoming rediculous with power creep, while models are starting to have lax sculpting quality (with the occasional exception).

fantasy is holding its own, but 7th ed could make it or break it (especially seeing as the system works extremly well at presant), sculpt quality is more or less the same as 40k (ie: plastics vary dramatically, with the occasional amazing sculpt)

outside of GW there seems to be problems due to GW elitisim (tell someone a model is in production by gw, and theyll love it, then tell them who actually makes it and theyll go back on what they said) mongoose publishings starship troopers has had tremendous success (showing GW you dont need hype from a movie to sell games) the only flaw being the lack of factions, which if mongoose are smart they will remedy.

privateer press have been very daring of late, with the book apotheosis being a risky endeavour (yet succesful due to thier loyal fanbase) hordes will succede due to the fanbase pp has, the question is will it get PP a broader player base?

rackham is a intresting case, theyve failed to translate any systems to english succesfully, yet still manage to maintain popularity due to thier amazing sculpts generating a high impulse buy responce (ive noticed mainly dedicated painters buy these models)

flames of war is enjoying its normal popularity, with an increasing player base, theyve managed what was thought to be impossible by having a mix of historical and fantasy wargamers join in.

infinity is going to be the big game this year, its barely been released and has had huge success already, should be an intresting year for them.

so, this year i belive we will see:
starship troopers breaking into mainstream

hordes will get a small minority into PP, but theyll maintain the success theyve had

infinity will be a runaway success

7th ed will make GW either unbeatable, or put them in serious trouble (although that may take a year or two)

thanks for reading, and i would value your comments

[heretic]

the average 40ker has only heard of warmachine, which is not on the same level as 40k in terms of what the game comprises of.

in fact, there isn't any other widespread game other than Warhammer where you are likely to walk into a hobby shop and see a game going.

[carmachu]

7th will make GW unbeatable? I dont think it will that great. Its not a full rewrite. Just some revisions, mostly to magic and something else from that matter.

Stock anaylsts dont see GW making any gains this year.

[carmachu]

Another school of thought, jsut so you know, on Rackham: They've posted up that they know they've fallen down on teh US translastion bit, but this year they're making US a priority. We'll see if it happens.

PP is an interesting case with Hordes. Many a times I hear "yeah the game is cool but I dont like those silly jacks. It could net in more players, due to folks just not liking jacks. Again we'll see.

[TzarNikolai]

whats the infinity everyone's reffering to? can someone link me?

i've not had much of a problem with rackham rules atm, but thats because we've just started playing it; so there's more "learning to play in a friendly fashion" as opposed to more competetive 40k and fantasy where a rules debate seems to go on for hours...

i do really want to start hordes or warmachine but i have enough stuff to paint as it is.

[watcher]

just to clarify its a could in referance to 7th ed, it has the potential to get players back involved, it also has the potential to drive them away in droves (look at the transition from 2nd to 3rd ed in 40k)

[Luke]

if i may insert my 2 penneth into this thread:

1: i am not alone. remember this as it is important.

2: after 10 years i and 4 out of my 5 regular opponents have finally had it with GW's ridiculous pricing and have opted out to various levels.

example, i myself am only willing to purchase GW tanks up untill the proce rise in march, after which i will scour ebay. 100% of my figures have come from either old glory or urban mammoth over the past 4 months with many more planned.

these 4 out of 5 friends also use ebay for ALL of their 40k gear.

GW is all well and good, there models are very nice, there PR skills is "trick yo" and all that, but to us poor honest working shmoes who are trying to save up for houses, women etc, i think we can do MUCH better.

1: remember i said that i was not alone? i doubt me and my 4 mates are the only ones on the entire planet who have taken this course of action.

rant over.

[Mad Makz]

I think the industry as a whole is healthier than it has been in a long time, mainly thanks to two things: GW and the Internet.

The success of other games companies is directly related to GW's previous success.

GW created a model for hiqh quality, easy to read wargaming books. It took sometime, but they eventually got it right (Mainly with the 3rd edition 40K rulebook, whatever problems that system had the 3rd edition Rulebook, before codexes came out, was very good and actually did present a wholly playable system in one book.).

They also created their Hobby stores, and kept their own tournaments going and Games Days and really promoted the hobby (even if it was totally inclusive to their products), which while difficult to replicate, did open up the gaming market to more players and created a more sustainable, higher quality player base. A couple of companies tried to emulate GW (Chronopia/Warzone systems, Void) but the probelm was generally the games and models were lower quality, and they were really only following in GW's footsteps/appealing to people who liked the older rule sets that GW had moved on from. Interesting ideas, but not significantly different so they still had to compete directly with the 800 pound gorilla in the room.

GW continued to grow pretty much hit saturation point, although through it's Fanatic game systems and LOTR it has come out with some interesting rule sets (Gothic and Warmaster would be the best of the lot, each significantly different but offering what they aimed for to the players. Necromunda had good background and the 3D element made for a different feel to the game which was cool. Blood Bowl is a 5 star board game/wargame hybrid, and deservingly get's a mention as one of the best games ever made, but can't be included in a wargame set.).

They then came out with LOTR, an amazingly well produced licenced product which sold unbelievably well and introduced more people into the hobby.

This as a case in point is bad for GW because as a publicly listed company because it was always going to be unsustainable, but the extra profits form GW have almost undoubtedly been used to rake in a huge amount of investment in new capital (i.e it's paid for all the new plastic kits for the other systems). It remains to be seen whether GW has over capitalised know that the bubble is bursting on LOTR, but it might be going that way. (However, with the life span of plastic kits they'll probably be ok in the long run if they don't totally overprice themselves to the NEW hobbyists).

The problem GW now face is much more nimble competition who are producing DIFFERING products for the same niche.

Flames of War appeals to the gamer and historical markets. The Fantasy players aren't going to be in on it, but GW's push towards getting better rulesets and creation of tournament environments have made for a player base that loves a good ruleset, and FoW certainly has that, so those tired of GW's ways but looking for a good ruleset can get in on it with Flames.

Oh, and did I mention it's much cheaper than GW to get an army, so you can get MORE armies. At the end of the day people spend the same amount of money on FoW as they do for GW, but the gamers who are in it for the game get to collect more armies for the same money thus have greater tactical choice and can experiment with the game system more, which is what appeals to them. Plus they can rope in the historical fans, so they have a market that isn't competing directly with GW but can siphon off some of it's players. Finally Flames doesn't need to come up with it's own Intellectual Property (IP) all the background is based on reality and by packaging history in an appealing way they can appeal to the gamers without having to employ a large creative force. All the work in coming up with the ideas has already been done, they just need to successfully implement them in a fresh and innovative manner as they have been doing.

Rackham, they appeal to another niche within a niche, the high end painting market. They're heavily stylized miniatures and their first rate painting team have created a huge interest in the painting sector of the gaming world and have siphoned off some of that market from GW. With each miniature coming with it's own stat line it appeals much more to the miniature collector who occassionally plays a game than GW (who generally applys to the gamer who also wants to paint miniatures.)

Heroclix etc are appealing to the pure gamers, who frankly never really invested heavily into GW so if anything they will only be a gateway product between miniature games and collectible card games, or a fun diversion for 'toy' collectors (all of which are their own niche markets, that don't really directly compete with GW.). Their success is mainly backed upon other people's IP, so they also aren't really competing with GW because it's IP is it's greatest asset.

Privateer Press and it's Warmachine game, I think they're an interesting case. I think they're product kind of falls into the 'different enough' category. It's different enough from GW to build a fanbase, and because it is a new company is nimble enough to react well to it's fans is probably not that heavily capitalised, but it's hard to envision them making long term gains on GW. Currently they just don't have enough IP. A single game system based on a single roleplaying world can't really compete with the amalgamation of miniature lines which was then converted into the cohesive GW world's or the power of the Warhammer 40K IP (whose sway is undeniable, even gamers who hate the 40K systems generally all admit that the IP is very good.)

I'll hold my judgement on Warmachine, it seems to be doing well, but I am not sure if they hold enough a niche to go head to head with GW (even with all GW's price hikes/failings.)

Similiarly, Starship Troopers IP isn't established enough. While their plastics technology appears fairly impressive, I don't think Mongoose are going to really have a break out success there due to the limitations of the IP, however I think they are likely to try to gain a foothold for a while yet, however they just aren't different enough from 40K to make a difference (yes, GW 'stole' Heinlen's IP in part to create their 40K univers, but they did it 20 years ago so have too big a headstart.)

Now, the growth of all the small games companies has been HEAVILY facilitated by the internet. The internet has allowed other territories to be aware of firstly GW games, and now other game systems and has allowed communication between gamers to identify the sorts of games they actually want. It has also reduced publication costs, errata's can be posted online, new products can be advertised and announced.

Companies can communicate with your core audience through your companies website and forums (so you don't have long lulls with no communication and don't have to fork out for the costs of a monthly magazine) and in general can more easily use GW's model without the long term investment GW used to build into the company they became (all those years as a mail order company when White Dwarf was used to advertise any related products).

Basically, the internet has allowed for the other companies to be mini Games Workshops operating in their own niche markets. Whether these smaller, more nimble companies make enough inroads to force significant change in the 800 pound gorilla's tactics remains to be seen, but I think GW is certainly going to have to innovate to keep their share holders happy (or cut a lot of slack, which will close stores, cause job losses and generally not be that great for the morale of a company whose workers by and large do it for the love of it.)

It's going to be an interesting year.

[Brandir]

I don't actually think that Starship Troopers is doing as well as people perceive, in the UK at least. At the last couple of UK wargaming shows I attended Starship Troopers has been in the bargin buckets of traders and most won't be re-ordering.

What will be a big threat to GW is the release of HORDES in April and the next WARMACHINE supplement, Superiority, in August. I believe this because the Privateer Press games at the shows I have attended have always been by far the busiest and anecdotal evidence from traders is that show attendees can't get enough of WARMACHINE.

[watcher]

id agree with you on most points except the issue of privateer IP, ive only flicked through the RPG books, but they are so detailed and rich that i belive they equal GW on fluff at the moment, i relise what a statement that is, but when you consider how much of GWs stuff is in print (let alone how much of it is repeating the same thing) i find PPs fluff to be much more immersing (also it doesnt just focus on militry, it gives you a feel for the way of life in the world)

and i dont think any of these companies are trying to go head to head with GW (theyed be stupid to try) but i do think SST will make a name for itsself outside the wargaming comunity (ive seen alot of evidence for this)

[Mad Makz]

id agree with you on most points except the issue of privateer IP, ive only flicked through the RPG books, but they are so detailed and rich that i belive they equal GW on fluff at the moment, i relise what a statement that is, but when you consider how much of GWs stuff is in print (let alone how much of it is repeating the same thing) i find PPs fluff to be much more immersing (also it doesnt just focus on militry, it gives you a feel for the way of life in the world)

Yes, but they've only got the one 'universe' Iron Kingdoms, whereas GW have 40K and Fantasy, and the side games to those universes, and the crossover of appeal between those universes (Chaos, Orcs/Orks, Eldar/Elves, and the general gothic tones) as well as the unique things in each universe (Tau, Skaven.). Generally GW's background has a wider appeal than IK. It's not the detail that's important, it's how the background can be shaped to the wants of the player, and by keeping things deliberately vague and archetypal for the wargame they keep a wider room for appeal than the detailed and exacting nature of a roleplaying game. (In comparison the Warhammer Fantasy Roleplaying game suffers the reverse problem, being based in a broad and analogous world the roleplaying game can't be given as much detail as some people would like. Fortunately it's gritty bottom up/Cthulu like nature allows for this as you are unlikely to ever be in a position where you would need such a strong overview).

[big squig]

I don't actually think that Starship Troopers is doing as well as people perceive, in the UK at least. At the last couple of UK wargaming shows I attended Starship Troopers has been in the bargin buckets of traders and most won't be re-ordering.

I agree, from what I've seen Starship troopers has not been the breakout hit everyone was expecting. The mini's are questionable, the rules are wonkey, and there are really only 2 armies. I feel pretty sure that Starship Troopers will stay no more popular that B5.

[Griefbringer]

just to clarify its a could in referance to 7th ed, it has the potential to get players back involved, it also has the potential to drive them away in droves (look at the transition from 2nd to 3rd ed in 40k)

Presuming that it is just a minor change over the 6th edition, I do not see drastic effect to either direction.

People who are happily playing 6th edition right now will pick the new book, read through it and continue playing. For people who have been growing slightly unhappy with the 6th edition, the new version might be a critical point: they might either drop the game to avoid the need of buying a new book, or it might get enthusiastic again if they find some improvements from the changed rules.

As for drawing new players in, a new big shiny box on the stores will surely attract some attention and lead to a number of new players getting in to the game - but not all of them will stay in for a long time.

Meanwhile, a growing number of established gamers seem to be waiting for an army book re-vamp before investing in a new army. I am not surely how beneficial such attitude will be for GW finances - surely it increase the sales of new armies, but long term sales might be affected negatively.

[Inquisitor Samos]

whats the infinity everyone's reffering to? can someone link me?

http://www.infinitythegame.com/

It's produced by Corvus Belli.

[Spacemunkie]

Any company that sells sci-fi or fantasy games/minis IS in direct competition with GW. Doesn't mean they have to copy their odious games or business practices though

Did anyone mention the fact that Rackham are due to release their sci-fi game this year? Which appears to be using some rather nifty looking mech-type thingys...

[carmachu]

Yes, but they've only got the one 'universe' Iron Kingdoms, whereas GW have 40K and Fantasy, and the side games to those universes, and the crossover of appeal between those universes (Chaos, Orcs/Orks, Eldar/Elves, and the general gothic tones) as well as the unique things in each universe (Tau, Skaven.). Generally GW's background has a wider appeal than IK. It's not the detail that's important, it's how the background can be shaped to the wants of the player, and by keeping things deliberately vague and archetypal for the wargame they keep a wider room for appeal than the detailed and exacting nature of a roleplaying game.

On the other hand, one could point out, PP's one is deeper than GW's 2 or more. GW's too spread out to cover all the bases: 15+ fanatsy books, and I'm not going to count 40K ones(depending if you count space marines as one or many, same as chaos).

I mean, with PP, you'll get a goodie for your faction or mercenaries in dribs and drabs, and your fluff expands a bit more.

GW one the other hand, is a one force per 3 months kinda guy: if you're playing 40K orks, suck up and deal till at LEAST 2007. You get squat for years, no attention.


Depends on your POV I 'd wager.

[Ki-Adi-Monkey]

GW one the other hand, is a one force per 3 months kinda guy: if you're playing 40K orks, suck up and deal till at LEAST 2007. You get squat for years, no attention.

Not quite. There are definetly some new minis for orks that are coming out in summer 2006, with the Cities of Death book releases.

Rob

[carmachu]

Not quite. There are definetly some new minis for orks that are coming out in summer 2006, with the Cities of Death book releases.

HOW long as 4th been around? and only now in the middle of 2006 orks geta bone?

Still not good enough, considering what bad shape their in.

[Brandir]

One does have to consider that PP has been developing their world for 3 years while GW has been doing it for over 20.

I don't think PP can continue to add a few more Warjacks each month ad infinitum without rejigging their lines as GW does on a regular basis.

[Ki-Adi-Monkey]

HOW long as 4th been around? and only now in the middle of 2006 orks geta bone?

Still not good enough, considering what bad shape their in.

Yes, however my only point was there are orks coming out before 07.