Ok, basic idea behind this thread is as follows:
We all discuss this unit or that model, and then math-hammer the crap out of it. Average rolls to hit, to wound, to save, etc. and then base its performance on that, but how many of us have even once had that actual result come out in a game?
Take my Empire Halberdiers, for example. Last game I had a unit that was totally unsupported by characters because of how deployment went, so they were totally outside of the Ld/BSB bubble, no hatred rerolls from WP's, etc. Just a vanilla unit of 25 halberdiers, no shields. They went toe to toe with a unit of Night Runners. Night runners got the charge.
Combat round 1: Night runners have initiative, so go first. 15 attacks, hitting on 4's, he managed a whopping 3 hits (far below average!), wounding on 4's he managed 3 wounds (well above average!) and I saved 1 of them (needing 6's). My return attacks, 11 Halberdier attacks hitting on 4's I got 9 hits, wounding on 3's I managed 3 wounds. When it came to combat resolution, I had 3 ranks, banner, 3 kills for a total of 7, he had 2 kills plus a single rank (I'd softened them up pre-combat through shooting) meaning he lost by 4. He needed a 3 or less to hold, was outside of the general/BSB bubble, and rolled a 2 and a 1, holding. Now, based on averages, I should have wiped the floor with him, even taking any individual incident of rolling any number of dice during that round we didn't get an average set of results once.
Combat round 2: He goes first with his 15 attacks, managed to get 10 hits! Wounding on 4's he got 7 wounds. I managed to save 4 of them on 6's! My return attacks were totally fluffed, hitting twice out of 11 attacks and I managed to kill one! When it came to combat resolution he had 3 kills, no ranks. I had 1 kill, banner and 3 ranks, this time I won by 2, and he was testing against Ld4 effectively. He rolled Boxcars, and fled 11" (bringing him into range of his general's unit for next turn) and I pursued a whopping 5". Once again, none of this was average dice rolling.
He failed to rally, and continued to run off the board in subsequent turns, despite having 2 goes at rallying on Ld7 due to his general (supposedly an average dice roll for 2 dice).
Now, what's the point of this? It's not to brag about how awesome my halberdiers were (well, maybe a little) but more to discuss if anyone has ever had that perfectly average round of dice rolling? And to what extent do we put stock into math-hammering unit/model average rolls?
I do remember once having an average number of hits from 10 crossbowmen at short range (5 hits on 4's!) but then got all of them wounding, so was above average there...