2012 releases

[FerociousBeast]

Well, the OP missed May, June, and in all probability September, so I'm inclined to doubt the rest of it (that's not obvious, of course).

[simonbeard]

Interesting that the 40K 6th edition starter set has been confirmed for September. I wonder if that means the Warriors of Chaos army book will be in August or October. August seems more likely to me since the OP just had "40K models" for August, but a 40K codex for October. Thanks for showing us the goods, Darnok!

[MajorWesJanson]

Warriors of Chaos ought to be August, with Chaos Marines in October. With those two and the starter, it gives a nice heavy focus on Chaos across both systems.

[BDJV]

Warriors of Chaos ought to be August, with Chaos Marines in October. With those two and the starter, it gives a nice heavy focus on Chaos across both systems.

Probably true, but I really wish it were reversed in order. WFB has had plenty of love this year already and I think it is a shame to have a whole year between codex releases.

[Scribe of Khorne]

Probably true, but I really wish it were reversed in order. WFB has had plenty of love this year already and I think it is a shame to have a whole year between codex releases.

I was thinking Aug may just be another wave of fliers, Nids, Tau, DE Voidraven perhaps. Would it be unrealistic to see WoC + 6th Starter in the same month?

[jamesterjlrb]

The past two new editions were July, so if we do get 6th in July this year then it stands to reason we get the starter in September, again consistent with both the last fantasy and 40k starter sets, both the september after the release.

[wyvirn]

Awesome! Send this Harvey (Birdman) my thanks!
I just find it odd from a business point of view that we'll only have a single tentative codex release this year.

[Reinholt]

Awesome! Send this Harvey (Birdman) my thanks!
I just find it odd from a business point of view that we'll only have a single tentative codex release this year.

One 40k codex doesn't seem right to me.

[BramGaunt]

One 40k codex doesn't seem right to me.

Yeah. Still that's what's happening. WHFB also got one armybook in their 25th, and that was technically for the old ruleset.

[Theocracity]

One 40k codex doesn't seem right to me.

That was the case for Fantasy during the year of 8th edition. That doesn't necessarily mean that will repeat this year for 40K, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

[jamesterjlrb]

Another couple of things, I think the hobbit for november is dubious... From what i've heard the film is slated for around the 12th December onwards, depending on country. That said GW don't tend to do big December releases, so maybe they're trying to go early, though firstly i'd be surprised if New Line would let them, and secondly a christmas puch on the hobbit would work for them. I suspect January as an option.

Secondly i suspect we'll see a new SM codex this year. They're normally one of the first to get updated, and other than the SM variant codices, the current SM codex is one of the oldest still around, though it may not feel like it. I predict a new SM book in either August or more likely October. (This is not based on rumours, but on some pretty careful studying on GW release trends i've been doing). I also doubt the WOC book this year. My reasoning is thus, July is 6th Ed ( if not all the predictions are up the creek to begin with), no way would August be a Fantasy book after the current 40K dex drought, September should be a starter set and October is the actual anniversary of 40K, which up till now not much has been made of (hence why i favour this month for a new SM book).

December traditionally doesn't have a major release, just christmas stuff, so that leaves November as a possibility. But i think after new rulebook, one or two new dexs and a starter set, and hobbit to come, possibly even IN november, a new fantasy book seems a bit much. They don't want people to have to pick and choose between releases. There have to be some filler months. I reckon December, and although i said SM in October, i also think November is a logical choice with October as a filler month.

However it should be said that both previous editions have had a book from the other system released later in the same year, so WOC is still a possibility. The last 40k release had 3 books in the remainder of the year (Dark Elves, Space Marines, WOC) where as Fantasy just had the one (Dark Eldar with Daemon and High Elf fillers (no fantasy until OandG in march next year!)) so that's pretty hard to use as a guide. That said Fantasy had last had an Armybook in Feb (Beastmen) where as we haven't had a dex now since Necrons in Nov, so i think we'll see more books rather than fewer and definitely at least one 40k if not two.

Like most i think DA will be in the starter box, based on WD spines and the paint set, and so i think its likely they'll get a new book soon, as ususally happens with box set armies. I figure one book this year and one early next year, probably march, to give breathing space after the hobbit in Jan if i'm right.

So a summary of my predictions (for the record):
July: 6th Ed
August: Some codex, probably Dark Angels
September: Box Set
October/November: Filler then SM, possibly swapped
December: Usual Christmas Fare
January:Hobbit
Feb: Filler
March: Box set army codex

I'd like to stress again, NO RUMOURS HERE, just some analysis based on past trends. In fact i have made to the best of my knowledge, no assumptions or guesses based on rumours at all, only based on info in the public domain.

Interested to know people's thoughts on this analysis. Do people take any stock in trends like this, in other words should i bother looking at stuff like this?

[Silvertongue]

(snip)

That's good and all, but as you say, it's only your predictions. We're pretty sure that some of the things you're dismissing as improbable are, in fact, coming (such as the WoC book), and that some of the ones you consider most likely are quite far away still, not even on the radar (SM). I'm not saying that you are completely wrong: I'm saying that there's no need to speculate on that level, and that logic alone, however good it may be, cannot compete with facts. Or facts (as in rumours).

[jamesterjlrb]

I don't argue that it competes with facts. I've tried to not let the rumours affect those predictions at all, and it will be interesting to see how much of the rumours are right, and how many of my predictions are right. You'll notice things like flyers don't feature, because there is very little evidence for them other than rumours, nor would there be. I'm not saying it's unlikely at all, just that the analysis I'm doing doesn't predict them. At the end of the day he likes keeping us guessing, so you're right, such predictions only go so far. I'm just interested to see whether any of the more unorthodox ones or ones for further ahead hit close to the mark.

[Deaf Paradox]

Another couple of things, I think the hobbit for november is dubious... From what i've heard the film is slated for around the 12th December onwards, depending on country. That said GW don't tend to do big December releases, so maybe they're trying to go early, though firstly i'd be surprised if New Line would let them, and secondly a christmas puch on the hobbit would work for them. I suspect January as an option.

The previous Lord of the Ring range were all released in November as well as the films being out in December. Seems a likely repeat pattern to me.

[iosu1978]

In terms of model releases 40k has had plenty of releases I think what still throws people is the lack of any codex release this year and the possibility (becoming more and more probable) that GW decided that the 25th anniversary of 40k would be a good year to break the 15 year pattern of at least 2 codexes per year......

This is exactely what i meant

[MajorWesJanson]

Hobbit range in november also fits with the lead-in hype for the movie.
CSM after the starter also works better on a sales front. Instead of having a bunch of snapfit models after a new CSM release with multi-parts, the Starter in September and CSM in October lets them boost sales for new players- Get the starter, learn the game, and shortly, new book and cool models to expand your Chaos Army! DA can use either their DA codex or the Vanilla one just fine for the moment.

[DeviLution]

Funny how 6th seems to be a lock for releasing the same month I turn 34. Hopefully the rules will be good. I'd really, really hate to see a new edition nuke the game around the time of my birthday.

Intersting - did I miss it in my two read throughs of that 2012 release cycle or did he not have info on the fliers release dates? I wonder about that...

[daemonish]

So could we see the giant treeman in June?

[Avian]

Within the realm of possibility, but not likely.

[Tymell]

Probably true, but I really wish it were reversed in order. WFB has had plenty of love this year already and I think it is a shame to have a whole year between codex releases.

So two big waves and a new edition of the game doesn't qualify as "love" for 40K? Fantasy went through the exact same thing in 2010: new edition of the game, with over a year between army book releases either side of it. 40K folks are in no position to bemoan how poor and neglected it is.