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Thread: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

  1. #221
    Chapter Master Reinholt's Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Don't feed the troll, Trasvi.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arkfatalis View Post
    I reckon we should start a facebook group where we encourage people to buy £20 of GW shares and then elect Reinholt as head of GW, so it will last forever !

  2. #222
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Wow. I have been absent for over twelve months, since GW shafted their ROW customers, and not much has changed at all.

    Does anyone have the sales figures from after the 'terms of trade policy'?
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  3. #223
    Chapter Master shelfunit.'s Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by mulkers View Post
    Wow. I have been absent for over twelve months, since GW shafted their ROW customers, and not much has changed at all.

    Does anyone have the sales figures from after the 'terms of trade policy'?
    They should be coming out around this time next month in the end of year report.
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  4. #224

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    While not a definate statement on trendings, costumer numbers and profits, it neverthelesse offers interesting additional information.

    Games Workshop

    http://i47.tinypic.com/2yyaxr9.png


    Privateer Press

    http://i49.tinypic.com/2ppzsix.png

    Personaly I think just stating that the "Interent Community" is in the minority and that in the reality the GW systems are blooming and loved all around is the equivalent of sticking fingers into both ears. Even without hard numbers it is clear, that the competition is slowly growing while GW systems are at best stagnating if not worse.

  5. #225
    Chapter Master Torga_DW's Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Maybe, but i wonder how much of the stagnation and loss of customer base is coming from the pants-on-head crazy pricing?
    Just because the horse is dead is no reason to stop flogging it.
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  6. #226

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Have anyone of you been able to calculate the gross margin on GW miniatures?

    The GW annual report is amazingly easy to read (http://investor.games-workshop.com/w...ll-25-July.pdf) but I am not very familiar with British standards for writing them on and I am curious on if it is possible to calculate the average gross income per miniature as it would be interesting to compare.

    I also check ft.com regarding market sentiment on GW and was a bit surprised by how hard it seems to be for GW to correctly forecast their sales (http://markets.ft.com/Research/Marke...t?s=GAWGBP:STO). I thought they would be a rather "boring" company on the stock market as they would make their money, pay their dividend and everyone would be happy. But in the last 5 years the stock have lost half it's value (2007-2008) and then quadrupled it which mean that the GW stock value have doubled in 5 years.

    Another thing I noticed at ft.com is that their financial information officer is named Rachel Tongue which is a bit funny.

  7. #227
    Chapter Master Reinholt's Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by AdarII View Post
    Have anyone of you been able to calculate the gross margin on GW miniatures?

    The GW annual report is amazingly easy to read (http://investor.games-workshop.com/w...ll-25-July.pdf) but I am not very familiar with British standards for writing them on and I am curious on if it is possible to calculate the average gross income per miniature as it would be interesting to compare.

    I also check ft.com regarding market sentiment on GW and was a bit surprised by how hard it seems to be for GW to correctly forecast their sales (http://markets.ft.com/Research/Marke...t?s=GAWGBP:STO). I thought they would be a rather "boring" company on the stock market as they would make their money, pay their dividend and everyone would be happy. But in the last 5 years the stock have lost half it's value (2007-2008) and then quadrupled it which mean that the GW stock value have doubled in 5 years.

    Another thing I noticed at ft.com is that their financial information officer is named Rachel Tongue which is a bit funny.
    In a technical sense, (Revenue - Cost of Sales) / Revenue should give you gross margin. IIRC it's like 75% for GW if I remember correctly off the top of my head. Someone could pull the 2010-11 annual report to figure it out precisely.

    With that said, GW doesn't fully disclose how they allocate all their costs, so that could be overstated or understated depending on what they are jamming into operating expenses. If they are allocating design costs in there, that's kind of a misnomer in some ways (you try producing an undesigned product), but if that's all the retail stores and administrative, then their gross margin should be representative.

    As to stock price, follow it back even further, and you will find they are still at a significant loss compared to the highs of the stock (in the 800p range) from the LoTR bubble.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arkfatalis View Post
    I reckon we should start a facebook group where we encourage people to buy £20 of GW shares and then elect Reinholt as head of GW, so it will last forever !

  8. #228
    Librarian Metacarpi's Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by Torga_DW View Post
    Its simple math, as i showed above. both sides of the equation need to balance. A x B = C. If you increase the value of A, the value of C has to increase.
    So simply that it ignores many other factors. Have the production costs increased? Distribution costs? What about the wages for those involved in the production and distribution process?

    A x B = C in this case is simplified to such a degree as to be rendered moot.
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  9. #229
    Chapter Master Reinholt's Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by Metacarpi View Post
    So simply that it ignores many other factors. Have the production costs increased? Distribution costs? What about the wages for those involved in the production and distribution process?

    A x B = C in this case is simplified to such a degree as to be rendered moot.
    What other factors? You're aware that revenue is reported pre-expense for this precise reason, right?

    Revenue is simply the amount of cash taken in from sale of products. You then have various expenses related to all of the things you claim are assumptions before you reach net income, but we're not talking about net income. Let me say that again: revenue is only the amount taken in from the sale of products, prior to deductions for any reason.

    Therefore, if you have rising prices but constant revenue, you are definitionally selling less product. The only other option would be that prices hadn't actually increased (empirically verifiable that they have) or someone is committing accounting fraud.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arkfatalis View Post
    I reckon we should start a facebook group where we encourage people to buy £20 of GW shares and then elect Reinholt as head of GW, so it will last forever !

  10. #230
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Just checking back in, started playing GW stuff again, but a glance at the online retailers tells me that not much has changed, as far as GW's ToT. How about their financial position?
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    GW Purchases since RoW terms of trade change in May 2011 'the antipodean embargo':



  11. #231

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by mulkers View Post
    Just checking back in, started playing GW stuff again, but a glance at the online retailers tells me that not much has changed, as far as GW's ToT. How about their financial position?
    I believe the 2011-12 financial year produced their best dividend to date. So to them everything they're doing is the right thing.

  12. #232
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by lbecks View Post
    I believe the 2011-12 financial year produced their best dividend to date. So to them everything they're doing is the right thing.
    Good sales of the new paint range when it was introduced and an unexpected large royalty payment from licencing their IP lead gwPLC to have a possitive year. Without the licencing money their revenue still remains reletively flat (so sales of actual models are still falling) and their market in Austrailia is showing significant losses.

    I haven't heard of any steps that they have taken to improve the Austrailian situation, they didn't take part in the "annual price adjutment" this year but at best that's not making a bad situation worse, not actively making it better.
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  13. #233

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by paddyalexander View Post
    Good sales of the new paint range when it was introduced and an unexpected large royalty payment from licencing their IP lead gwPLC to have a possitive year. Without the licencing money their revenue still remains reletively flat (so sales of actual models are still falling) and their market in Austrailia is showing significant losses.

    I haven't heard of any steps that they have taken to improve the Austrailian situation, they didn't take part in the "annual price adjutment" this year but at best that's not making a bad situation worse, not actively making it better.
    But do you think Tom Kirby is telling himself that? He owns six percent of all shares. So biggest dividend to date no matter the details is A-OK in his book.

  14. #234
    Chapter Master shelfunit.'s Avatar
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by lbecks View Post
    But do you think Tom Kirby is telling himself that? He owns six percent of all shares. So biggest dividend to date no matter the details is A-OK in his book.
    The dividend this half year (18p) is considerably down on last years half year dividend of 29p per share*. Would this be an indicator of decreased profits/income for the last 6 months?

    *not announced as a half year dividend, but pulled from the half year report
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  15. #235

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by shelfunit. View Post
    The dividend this half year (18p) is considerably down on last years half year dividend of 29p per share*. Would this be an indicator of decreased profits/income for the last 6 months?

    *not announced as a half year dividend, but pulled from the half year report
    Tom Kirby is happy with 18p as there were 3 dividends last financial year so there's still time to catch up! The stock price is also strong, which is very good when he decides to liquidate into retirement.

  16. #236
    Chapter Master Starchild's Avatar
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    GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by LexxBomb View Post
    I Live in South Australia which was the Only Free Settlement... No convicts here...
    even taking into account shipping and tarrifs (which aren't much as there is no Australian made competitor) we are still being stuffed... come one for the price i paid for the Limited Edition Codex I could have got the regular ($89Aus) plus a new Box of Terminators... (man I miss the days of the mid to late 90's (when a codex was average price of $30 Aus)
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    What effect are Julia Gillard's extra (energy?) taxes having on the price of GW products?


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  17. #237
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    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by Starchild View Post
    (From the Dark Angels Photos thread.)

    What effect are Julia Gillard's extra (energy?) taxes having on the price of GW products?
    My father has said that the Carbon tax is costing him $80,000 p.a. directly in electricity. He is yet to re-gas the coolroom, but he is going to need a lot of KY Jelly.

    Quote Originally Posted by lbecks View Post
    I believe the 2011-12 financial year produced their best dividend to date. So to them everything they're doing is the right thing.
    In one of their recent financial years, the BORROWED money to pay a dividend after making a net loss. 2009/2010?

    Paying a dividend does not equal success. Companies like McDonalds and Microsoft have never paid dividends iirc.


    And there are many CEO's that are out there to burn up the companies resources, make their bonuses and share increases, and then bail with all of the money.

    If he is not a gamer, he must only be there for one reason...
    Last edited by mulkers; 07-01-2013 at 01:48.
    Australia: where Forgeworld is the CHEAPER alternative to Games Workshop
    GW Purchases since RoW terms of trade change in May 2011 'the antipodean embargo':



  18. #238

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by mulkers View Post
    In one of their recent financial years, the BORROWED money to pay a dividend after making a net loss. 2009/2010?

    Paying a dividend does not equal success. Companies like McDonalds and Microsoft have never paid dividends iirc.


    And there are many CEO's that are out there to burn up the companies resources, make their bonuses and share increases, and then bail with all of the money.

    If he is not a gamer, he must only be there for one reason...
    GW is a short term dividend stock. If I were looking for a stock to invest in to get cents back on my dollar every year for a good few years I would buy GW stock. That's the type of stock it is. It's not a long term growth stock where you plan to pull out your money decades from now because the actual stock price grows. So issuing a dividend for GW is a sign of success. For a few years, 07, 08, i'm not sure about 09, they didn't issue a dividend because those years sucked for them. However, financially speaking, since then they turned the company around. If you bought stock in 07 or 08 and kept it until now you are a very happy stockholder.
    I do think that Kirby is trying to maximize his stock until he finally pulls out in a few years. He bought the company in 91 i think, it went public in 94, so this plan has been in the making for a while. He's going to finally be able to liquidate his investment and go live on a boat somewhere.

  19. #239

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by lbecks View Post
    I believe the 2011-12 financial year produced their best dividend to date. So to them everything they're doing is the right thing.
    Cannot emphasize the bolded text enough.

  20. #240

    Re: GW and Price Rises: An Economic Hypothesis

    Quote Originally Posted by lbecks View Post
    GW is a short term dividend stock. If I were looking for a stock to invest in to get cents back on my dollar every year for a good few years I would buy GW stock. That's the type of stock it is. It's not a long term growth stock where you plan to pull out your money decades from now because the actual stock price grows. So issuing a dividend for GW is a sign of success. For a few years, 07, 08, i'm not sure about 09, they didn't issue a dividend because those years sucked for them. However, financially speaking, since then they turned the company around. If you bought stock in 07 or 08 and kept it until now you are a very happy stockholder.
    I do think that Kirby is trying to maximize his stock until he finally pulls out in a few years. He bought the company in 91 i think, it went public in 94, so this plan has been in the making for a while. He's going to finally be able to liquidate his investment and go live on a boat somewhere.
    So, providing that this antagonist does just this, things could get better if someone with a bit less self-interest drops into the seat?
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