Why Do Cannons Cause Terror?

[ftayl5]

This is something I've been thinking about for a while and have wanted to discuss on here and that something is: the gripping fear of cannons.
People don't bring singular monsters or characters on monsters because they're "cannon-bait" or "asking for a cannon-ball to the face."
For a while, this has really confused me. Beastmen, Bretonnia, Daemons, Elves, Lizardmen, Orcs and Vampires don't have cannons. These armies might have catapults or trebuchets or bolt throwers instead but really, while the Trebuchet is a great option I haven't seen someone use a rock-lobber in almost two years and it's common knowledge the elven bolt throwers are both over costed and unreliable.

Dwarfs, Ogres and Empire are the only race that have cannons. Out of 15 armies! That's 1/5. This is very meta-based I suppose, maybe where you come from everyone and their aunt plays Dwarfs.
As well as there, arguably, only being a 1/5 chance of you even fighting an army with access to a cannon, cannons misfire 1/6th of the time. Not only can this lead to self-destruction or not firing again for a few turns, but the shot itself ends.
Cannons also bounce and unless the target is 10" long you can miss with a cannon and again 1/6 times the ball gets stuck in the mud.
So now we have a 2/6 = 1/3 chance that the cannon will not even hit the target.
Furthermore, the roll of a 1 is always a fail to wound making another 1/6 chance that the cannon will do nothing.
=1/2 chance of doing nothing.
Mathematically, out of 2 cannon shots only 1 will actually get to the point where your monster makes saves.

Combined with the fact that combat generally starts at turn 2 (at the latest) of the second player - a cannon may only get 1 or perhaps 2 shots at your monster before it's in combat and unable to be shot. And if you're smart in deployment you can keep it completely away from cannons between either distance or terrain.

I realise that this still presents a possibility of your monster being killed instantly but it annoys me sometimes when people pass it off as something that will definitely happen.
So please do discuss this, for I quite passionately believe that cannons aren't actually all that scary and would love to hear what other people think.

[hazmiter]

Cannons are scary when the dwarf player you vs is a nasty so an so who never misfired a cannon in a game, and guesses range very well. Added to that, doom divers are far more terrifying.

[Memnos]

I take monsters. The key is to take multiple threats. If you take a Lord of Chaos on a Chaos Dragon and a Chaos Spawn, followed by hordes of Marauders of Khorne and 3+ ward save Chosen, you are guaranteed that your Dragon is gonna get shot by anything and everything because there's too many marauders to make a difference and the Chosen will just save. On the other hand, if you take a Beastlord on a Razorgor chariot, a flying Gorebull and a Ghorgon along with a bunch of mini units of Razorgor, that cannon will spontaneously combust in fear as it realizes it can't stop anything.

Plus, the Beastmen army will close to the cannon in a single turn. Better hope it doesn't misfire. Or fail to wound. Or fail to roll high enough wounds to take out the enemy. Or roll less than a 4+ when the enemy drops out the Chalice and makes it useless.

Basically, breaking out the cannons to a well prepared Beastmen player is akin to starting a sex riot. You knew what you did when you did it and you can't blame others for the consequences.

Plus, I guess other armies can do multi-threat. Beastmen just rock at it.

[hazmiter]

Harpies,darkriders, manticores, dark Pegasus, shades, assassins, dagger sorceress.......

[boli]

Skaven also have cannons (warp lightning ones :P)

Its not so much the miss-firing people are concerned about... just that a 90, 100 or 150 point item has something like a 30% chance of killing a 500 point lord on a dragon every turn which annoys people most of all.

I don't know the exact percentage of a cannon hitting and wounding a target on a 2+ but it is pretty high - if your opponant brings 2 or 3 cannons which cost about the same as a single monster but they themselves can potentially kill 1 monster a turn between them with ease before yours even gets close.... well that's what causes terror.

[tmarichards]

It's not just that the monster-killing aspect that annoys people. For example, I despise the dumb mechanic that allows cannon players to repeatedly put their cannonball '10" from the back of your general's base' over and over again, just looking for that failed LOS. Not good for the game at all.

[IcedCrow]

30% is grossly high.

First assuming you follow internetz wizdomz you guess 6" short of the target, that leaves you a 2/6 chance of landing straight on target (a 6 or an 8) and a 2/6 chance of it having no chance (a misfire or a 10) and then a 2/6 chance of it landing short. So right off the bat you have a 33% chance of total failure on the shot.

Assuming it lands short, you then will roll what you need to bounce through 4/6.

Then you have a 5/6 chance of wounding.

Then you need to max your wounds out to "kill the 500 point lord on a dragon" on the first shot which is t ypically going to be a 1/6 chance.

The odds of one shotting a lord on a dragon is very small. The thing is people on the internet claiming internetz wizdomz take an unlikely possibility and then hyperbole it up so that it happens nearly all the time. This of course then contributes to things never being seen on the table and contributing to unit spam.

Here's my own anecdotal evidence. I regularly run a chaos lord on a manticore. Last year he played in 19 games. He died in two of them. One of those was to a cannon. The other was to bad rolls in combat. This is against a group that featured three empire players and many cannons and guns.

There are many ways to mitigate cannon balls. Being out of line of sight is one. Behing behind a wall is another. As a flying creature, I use him as a support piece, not as an "I will slaughter your army" piece. He is there to eat warmachines and straggler wizards and light infantry / gunlines. The bulk of my army takes care of dealing with the mainline pieces. As a flying creature often my opponent has exactly one turn to kill my lord on manticore before he is charged and destroyed and the rear of his lines have to deal with a marauding chaos lord on a manticore.

Works for me.

[hazmiter]

Manticores are a blast, dragon..... Have yet to field one.

[IcedCrow]

The same principles apply to a dragon though as they do to a manticore (dealing with the "you never see fighty lords on monsters anymore because a cannon will just one shot it in the face so there's no reason to take it" mantra). The only reason I don't field a dragon is because in a 2000 - 2250 point game, a chaos lord and a dragon don't really fit. They are more for the 3000 and above games which I don't play much of.

[Askari]

As well as there, arguably, only being a 1/5 chance of you even fighting an army with access to a cannon, cannons misfire 1/6th of the time. Not only can this lead to self-destruction or not firing again for a few turns, but the shot itself ends.
Cannons also bounce and unless the target is 10" long you can miss with a cannon and again 1/6 times the ball gets stuck in the mud.
So now we have a 2/6 = 1/3 chance that the cannon will not even hit the target.
Furthermore, the roll of a 1 is always a fail to wound making another 1/6 chance that the cannon will do nothing.

And if the Monster has 4 wounds that's another 3/6 chance that the Cannon won't do enough wounds to kill it! Therefore altogether a Cannon has 6/6 chance to not kill a 4 wound Monster!

Or that's not how you figure out the chances of a Cannon hitting you...

But, much as that is wrong, the chances a Cannon kills outright a 6 wound monster turn 1 is indeed pretty low (12% IIRC) and doesn't top 40% even for a 4 wound monster (~37%). It's just that Cannons are cheap, and that chance is still far higher than other means of dispatching that monster, such as fighting it in combat or shooting it with Crossbows. There's usually ways to improve those odds, Dwarfs have Rune of Forging and the Ironblaster bounces better but it's still not as bad as people make it out to be.

What's really scary about those odds is that I routinely field Cannons to take out Hydras and Hell Pit Abominations... they only cost roughly as much as 2 Cannons, things don't look good for the Empire artillery...

[Sotek]

Aside from the damage potential I think it's the 'snipeability' of cannons which is cheesy.

[BlackPawl]

It's not "one cannon against one monster" but "two or more cannons against one monster" - so the chances are better to kill a big monster with general in turn one and get all the points. And after doing this the cannons can shoot other targets in the next few rounds, even if they get killed by the end of the game they have done their job.

Even if they do not kill something in the first round you have to protect your monster behind some walls / buildings / hills but a) you can not reley on it that you will have such protection on the battlefield when you write our list and b) sometimes you have to go a longer way around and out of the LOS from every cannon, so you can not go straight forward.

And also if we assume that the cannons did not kill the monster in the first turn, even if they do only 3 or 4 wounds and have only 1 or 2 wounds left you will be more carfully to choose the right battle because even a steadfast horde of slave / goblins / zombies can do one or two wounds (with a little luck) and kill your monster.

[Rake]

Personally I think you are missing the main problem. That the cannon hits both the rider and the monster. And even with 4+ wardsave, or 3+ in case of chaos, its still a free shot at taking out the general of the army for FREE along with a chance at the dragon or assorted big gribbly. A lot of people identify with these large center pieces and don't like to simply remove them from the table turn one after they agonizeed/fantazised over the role they would play int he battle. Other than that, the odds are not so bad for the gribblys, but remember that knocking 3-4 wounds of a monster means it dies in the first round of combat most of the time, basically rendering it useless.

Stavros

[Askari]

And also if we assume that the cannons did not kill the monster in the first turn, even if they do only 3 or 4 wounds and have only 1 or 2 wounds left you will be more carfully to choose the right battle because even a steadfast horde of slave / goblins / zombies can do one or two wounds (with a little luck) and kill your monster.

If my big unit of Grave Guard with Vampire Lord in it and get a direct hit from a Grudge Thrower, I have to be careful to choose the right battle with them also. I don't think that's a point against the Cannons.

I simply think that ridden monsters are too expensive and/or both rider and mount shouldn't be struck by the same cannonball, it should be randomized. Other monsters, such as Hydras, Abominations, Warsphinxes, Hierotitans, Arachnarok Spiders, Terrorgheists and Varghulfs get used plenty as they're a) cheap enough for their use and b) you don't lose two expensive models when struck by one shot.

[yabbadabba]

@OP - its the internet. You take Math Hammer, pretend its reality, choose a worst case scenario then moan about it. Before you know its gospel and Chicken Licken is carrying your banner.

[CmdrLaw]

Yup the entire problem is it hitting the Monster and Rider.

I have lost dozens of Plaguepriests on Plague furnaces to Cannons.

A stone thrower only hits the rider on a 5+ so why should a cannon hit both?

[Akkaryn]

I have tried both a lord on the manticore and an araknarok spider. Against empire and ogres they died before I had a turn. Against high elves they did ok but nothing spectacular.

As most of the time I play a random army I am unwilling to spend a good chunk of points on something that against some armies I have a good chance of not being able to do anything with them. I just dont see the point.

I would love to use my lord on a manticore every game but until they reduce the points significantly so it isn't a quarter of my army or improve their chances of surviving (because even if they don't die to cannons and just lose a few wounds that reduces the options they can take on the field.) I will continue to not bother.

[IcedCrow]

I think the problem is people are looking for something that is 100% effective and if its not they abandon it.

To each their own.

As I said I've used it in many games (19) against opponents that field multiple cannons and it died twice (once to a cannon) despite being shot at by all of them. It's not as common as people make it out to be (monster mounts and riders dying in turn 1). It's possible. It's certainly not uber rare, but it's not common unless your monster is sitting out in the open.

[GodlessM]

I have a problem with the thread since a lot of it is based on the incredibly false assumption that nobod brings stone throwers.

[Jericho]

Yup the entire problem is it hitting the Monster and Rider.

I have lost dozens of Plaguepriests on Plague furnaces to Cannons.

A stone thrower only hits the rider on a 5+ so why should a cannon hit both?

Stone throwers do hit both, but only one counts as "under the hole". Cannons have no secondary stat for "glancing blows".