Anything could happen. Thats what Warhammer is. So again, why on earth is it at all useful to calculate scenarios that would never happen in a real game...and use the results to determine how to behave in said real game? Even the equipment of the hero's must be ignored.As soon as you start saying things like: "Well the HE player is going to bring in this unit" or "the goblins might not have a BSB in range" you're opening the flood gates to anything happening
The best (and truest) statement that could be made in the support of math hammer. But this next quote drives home for me why its pretty useless:Math like this is useful, because it can help players identify whether or not outside intervention is needed for a combat to swing in their favor.
Nobody would ever think that a good idea. You are reaching to extremes in an attempt to prove your point, but it has the opposite effect. Because indeed, no player with half a brain needs math hammer to tell them that charging 20 skaven slaves into a larger group of WoC is a good idea. We don't need math hammer to know this. Cause its obvious. Now, you could say that its needed for less obvious examples...but if the hypothetical match up is that close as too an experienced player having no idea which unit will come out on top, well thats called a toss up. And no amount of 'averages' is going to change that.Assumptions are how we win games. If you think charging a unit of 20 skaven slaves into a horde of chaos warriors will leave you with a decent chance of success because the dice gods think averages are meaningless, then that's your prerogative.
What I mean is this:
Player wants too charge unit A at unit B. A and B are closely matched, so he uses math to work out that unit A has a 45% chance to win the combat. Does he not charge? Then he is a fool. Of course he charges, one dice roll being better then average swings that 45% into a victory for him! If he had never bothered to work out the odds, he still would have charged, understanding the match up to be roughly equal. The only people I can see math hammer being good for are new players that just don't understand the balance of strengths and weakness's between units yet. Not saying there is anything wrong with something benefiting new players btw. But its usefulness is ridiculously narrow.
I wasn't suggesting to do this. Just pointing out how narrow math hammer is as whenever it is used the most simple setups (ie horde of 30 so all can attack) are used. Just not applicable to real game scenarios.Sure, bus formation makes it so that the goblins only get 28 attacks instead of 40. It also means the white lions only get 10 attacks instead of 30, so there's really no sensible reason to cut your offensive power by 66% if you're only cutting your opponent's offensive power by 30%. Additionally the White lions are stubborn, and don't gain anything from the extra ranks (given that they aren't negating the goblin's steadfast). In this case it is best for the white lions to stay in horde formation and work on getting another unit into combat to swing things in their favor.
Again, I was pointing out the narrow scope.Against the White Lions it didn't matter, because they already hit them on 5's.
I didn't want this to be a discussion about this example of math hammer in particular, for the simple reason that they are all so similar. Assuming conditions that simply do not exist in game for the sake of simplicity and therefore calculability(not a word but I'm using it!)
I'm not arguing that math hammer has *no* purpose. Just that it is highly over rated. "Never tell me the odds!" If Han Solo had listened to the droids, he never would have flown into that asteroid belt and saved all their hides. You never know till you try (again, not suggesting throwing skaven slaves at great numbers of Chosen).
Lets say my friend wants too charge my Ironbreakers with his Silver Helms. He feels like its a close match up, but works out the math in the middle of battle (which would annoy me, just using this as an example) and discovers that most likely (60%) my Ironbreakers would win by the 3rd round of combat...so he doesn't charge. What I'm saying is it makes the game less fun. Because deep down he wants to make that charge, and I want him to try too. But if he knew what the exact figures were, he would feel forced to go with the better odds, as would I. Thats why beyond thinking math hammer is just not that useful, I plain ole don't like it as well.
Everyone is more than permitted to disagree with me and like what I don't. I've made my point you can have the last word Dan, I don't like drawn out debates, after all its a game!