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velkore1134
20-03-2010, 08:05
How often does rolling doubles out of 3 dice occur in your guys' experience, it seems like it would happen sudden and often.

(to those wondering it exhausts Tervigon's ability to spawn gants the entire game)

enigma-96
20-03-2010, 08:09
Mathematically I think it's something in the 40% range?

On the table? Almost every Tervigon I've seen is spent by turn two, though their was this amusing game where 4 went on for 7 turns... **** was so funny especially since it was KP. Oddly enough the Nid player one through wipe out.

velkore1134
20-03-2010, 08:15
I've been skeptical about converting one, do they serve well as MC troop choices when they're exhausted? 6 wounds and ap1 ( in cc) has to count for something, I trust?

Clang
20-03-2010, 08:18
By my maths, there's a 16 in 36 chance of rolling a double on 3 dice. So yeah, the 'average' tervigon will 'breed' just over twice. But of course the fun comes with the non-average ones...

enigma-96
20-03-2010, 08:20
I'm of the opinion that one or two as troops are very good both in their support role, their birthing role, and in their secondary combat role. Catalyst is amazing for example expecially since it's given by a unit which is annoying to bring down quickly. NOTE: DON'T SPAM THEM!, they blow when spammed. Also their birthing ability is ironically not the reason you take them so your question is actually quite moot as this ability means little for them in the long run. Take them if you want some good psychic power support and some half decent melee and close range support as well.

velkore1134
20-03-2010, 08:22
I'm of the opinion that one or two as troops are very good both in their support role, their birthing role, and in their secondary combat role. Catalyst is amazing for example expecially since it's given by a unit which is annoying to bring down quickly. NOTE: DON'T SPAM THEM!, they blow when spammed. Also their birthing ability is ironically not the reason you take them so your question is actually quite moot as this ability means little for them in the long run. Take them if you want some good psychic power support and some half decent melee and close range support as well.

Good insight, thanks. I suppose something that makes it unique isn't necessarily it's primary role

enigma-96
20-03-2010, 08:40
Mind giving us your play style/ list? I/ Warseer could probably tell you if a Tervigon would be worth it or not in your list.

Hoodwink
20-03-2010, 08:55
You should rarely ever put them in CC.

With Catalyst, you can FNP your units in the movement phase and drop a spine pie plate on enemies in the shooting phase.

You want to avoid CC as much as possible for fear of getting stuck in combat. Trading FNP to a unit for lackluster CC doesn't really bode well for the Tervi.

Tenken
20-03-2010, 08:56
Just popping out a handful of gaunts is good enough though. Even if the tervigon didn't poop out aliens it'd still be a great buy for it's supportive rolls. And yes the odds of rolling doubles on 3d6 are pretty high, like 46% or something like that IIRC. In any case it's enough that it'll almost always happen on turn 1 or 2, but I'm sure people will have stories of "man my tervigon pooped out 50 gaunts this one game."

Bestaltan
20-03-2010, 10:49
.......... but I'm sure people will have stories of "man my tervigon pooped out 50 gaunts this one game."

Heh. This is what happened to me. First game in a tournament a few weeks ago my tervigon pooped out close to 50 termagaunts. Everybody at the tournament actually cheered during my second game when it was announced that my tervigon got constipated after round 1.

the1stpip
20-03-2010, 11:14
I think someone figured you can produce about 23 Termagants onaverage before they exhaust.

And I say Tervigons are very useful. With so many MCs walking around, they often get ignored for the nastier ones.

Lord Asgul
20-03-2010, 13:15
I kind of like the idea of a tervigon, I know there are similar things for other armies that are only in the fluff though :( but most of them have a good reason to be only in the fluff.

susu.exp
20-03-2010, 14:32
I think someone figured you can produce about 23 Termagants onaverage before they exhaust.

I get 22.8. A mean of 10.5 in round 1, with a 44% chance of being exhausted. Gives you a mean 5.8 in round 2 (0.55*10.5) with a 30.8% chance of not being exhausted by that time, giving you a mean of 1.8 in round 3 (0.308*10.5) and so on. For rounds 6 and 7 you have to to take the probability of the game ending into account as well. Note that this is a strongly skewed distribution and the Tervigon is quite a bit more likely to perform worse than better.

Lord_Of_Bats
20-03-2010, 17:26
I hope GW are hurrying up and making a kit of this! One that also makes the tyranofex. And i hope it looks good! I love my trygon and mawlock so if they look as good as that I'll be happy.

Corpse
20-03-2010, 18:56
3d6:
Three dice, times 6 sides, times 6 results (or a 6 by 6 grid like you see the str vs toughness table)
3x6x6-2(cant have a result of a 1 or 2 with 3 dice rolling three ones)=106
Start counting.
1,1,1
1,1,2
1,1,3
1,1,4
1,1,5
1,1,6
2,2,1
2,2,2
2,2,3
2,2,4
2,2,5
2,2,6
3,3,1
3,3,2
3,3,3
3,3,4
3,3,5
3,3,6
4,4,1
4,4,2
4,4,3
4,4,4
4,4,5
4,4,6
5,5,1
5,5,2
5,5,3
5,5,4
5,5,5
5,5,6
6,6,1
6,6,2
6,6,3
6,6,4
6,6,5
6,6,6
36 results, since just saying 6x6 was the result, help you understand math-hammer a bit better.
Grand total results tervi will get plugged:
36 results cut out of 106 = 70
So roughly 38% of the time, rounded up.

enigma-96
20-03-2010, 19:06
Oooooooh :eek: I think we have a math off on our hands.

Also I totally agree with Lord_of_Bats I really want GW to release this model with the ability to make it into a tyranofex, and maybe a harpy too if they would be so kind :angel:.

wazatdingder
20-03-2010, 19:17
NOTE: DON'T SPAM THEM!,

Can somebody please clarify the meaning of SPAM. I always thought it was meat in a can (troops in transport), so how can Nids have SPAM.

susu.exp
20-03-2010, 19:20
3d6:
Three dice, times 6 sides, times 6 results (or a 6 by 6 grid like you see the str vs toughness table)
3x6x6-2(cant have a result of a 1 or 2 with 3 dice rolling three ones)=106
Start counting.36 results, since just saying 6x6 was the result, help you understand math-hammer a bit better.
Grand total results tervi will get plugged:
36 results cut out of 106 = 70
So roughly 38% of the time, rounded up.

Wrong!

You are ignoring the fact that some results can be archieved in more than one way. The total possible states for 3D6 is 216. Of these there are 36 where the first 3 dice are a double. Of the 180 remaining ones there are 60 for which the 3rd die shows either the number on die 1 or on die 2. A total of 96 possibilities. And 96/216=4/9=0.4~

Wait, I realize thatīs even worse. "3 dice times 6 sides times 6 results" doesnīt even make sense. There are 3 dice with 6 possible states, which gives you a total of 6^3 states - 216.

Axel
20-03-2010, 19:28
While the non-average Tervigons are the real fun ones, here is a list computed by simulation on an average of some hundred thousand runs on how many Gaunts a Tervigon will produce, as per game turn:

1. 10.5 (well, I hope you are not surprised)
2. 16.3
3. 19.6
4. 21.4
5. 22.4
6. 22.7 (variable game length calculated.)
7. 22.9

Finnith
20-03-2010, 19:52
Can somebody please clarify the meaning of SPAM. I always thought it was meat in a can (troops in transport), so how can Nids have SPAM.

It means using the same item/unit/combo again and again. Tevigon spam would be 3 units of 10 gaunts and 5 tevigons. 1 for 0-1000 and 2 for 1001 to 2000 points seems to be pretty good for my regular nid opponent, any more and theres nothing other than a Tyrant and a couple of trygons which bother me who are easy to kill quickly as the wall of gaunts can be ignored/tank shocked/flamered all day long.


The term is derived from an old monty python sketch regrading the spiced meat in a tin. Youtube the word spam and all will be reviled.

totgeboren
20-03-2010, 20:49
The term is derived from an old monty python sketch regrading the spiced meat in a tin. Youtube the word spam and all will be reviled.

Hehe, you actually made me laugh out loud. I think the word you are looking for is "revealed". ;)

Finnith
20-03-2010, 21:15
Cheers totgeboren, thats what I get for mashing away at the keyboard and picked the first thing my spell checker comes up with.

Axel
21-03-2010, 09:50
OK, in math:

First dice is random.
Second dice equals first with 1/6. If so, the third dice is irrelevant.
The third dice thus is not identical with a 5/6 chance, and then has a 1/3 chance that it equals the first or the second (who are disjunct as per precondition).

So the total chance for a "burnout" sums up to:
1/6 + 5/6*1/3 =
3/18 + 5/18 =
8/18 =
4/9 =
0.444 =
44.4%

As somebody noted, there is a total of 6*6*6 = 216 combinations.
1/9 of this is 24, 4/9 are 96.
If you write down all combinations and count those with doubles, you will find out that they sum up to 96 (well, hopefully).

CoolKidRoc
21-03-2010, 14:42
I did a blog post on this a while back when they first came out, http://thewraithgate.blogspot.com/2010/01/nids-horrors-of-tervigons.html

But from real life, I've found that my friend is just damn lucky, often loosing out on his first on turn 3, and the other 2 lasting till turn 5 and beyond. Makes it really hard for a small elite army to deal with so many bodies on the table.