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Brandir
21-07-2010, 20:26
http://investor.games-workshop.com/news/rns/2010-07-12_notice_of_results.aspx

These results are for the year ending 30 May 2010.

Lars Porsenna
21-07-2010, 20:29
GW Results to be released on Tue 27 Jul 10 - what do we expect?

DOOOOOM!

Damon :)

blongbling
21-07-2010, 21:03
debts paid, even more profits made

SilentCivilian
21-07-2010, 21:25
A profit made, but not a huge one for a company of GW size. I would expect next years to be a bit healthier with 8th having been released.

I know there is alot of complaints about closing local stores and single manning but when you look at their profit compared with their turnover they have to make cut backs some place. They are a company with share holders to answer too. Those share holders demand healthy profits.

I think it will make interesting reading compared to next years too see if all the cutbacks have helped or hindred there bottom line.

Santiaghoul
21-07-2010, 22:14
GW has made a standard practice of increasing profitability: cut costs mostly through reduction of payroll. The report will show an increase in profitability but a decrease in sales volume. The report Im intrested in seeing is next year's and the one after that to see if the company managed to accomplish anything. I was told while being made redundant that the changes being made were neccessary to allow the company to expand in North America and Asia.

Spectrar Ghost
21-07-2010, 23:40
My gut feeling is that GW's profits will rise, making the investors who don't look at the actual retail model happy. As mentioned, whether the pricing and retail models GW currently has in place are sustainable and will continue to turn a profit is debatable.

PsyberWolf
22-07-2010, 00:21
-Profits up
-Revenue up due to favorable exchange rates driving business from Europe & US to the UK (but down on a constant currency basis reflecting lower sales)

Chaos and Evil
22-07-2010, 00:44
Profits up, revenue static in real terms, many people here will take offence at something in Tom Kirby's preamble.

frozenwastes
22-07-2010, 01:14
Profits up. Debt about the same (it's already really low, so it's probably just operating debt that they'll maintain). More revenue from royalties. Likely the core business will just fall short of being profitable and the royalty income will push GW nicely into profitability.

Spectrar Ghost
22-07-2010, 01:29
...many people here will take offence at something in Tom Kirby's preamble.

No doubt. Sometimes it's even reasonable.

Crazy Harborc
22-07-2010, 01:43
The GW fans will think it's great. The rest of us will not agree. The wealthy and or near wealthy players will be happy...Then their's the rest of us.

Ultimate Life Form
22-07-2010, 11:15
many people here will take offence at something in Tom Kirby's preamble.

You mean that pamphlet where he likes to claim that GW is the greatest company under the sun, did everything properly and that their crude policies and especially the pricing are absolutely reasonable and have led to stunning success (again)?

Yup, I can see it happen.

Osbad
22-07-2010, 12:00
Profits up, revenue static in real terms, many people here will take offence at something in Tom Kirby's preamble.

I concur with the above. Until GW get their US operation sorted, I can't see them getting any long term growth, however they are more efficient at squeezing profit out of their remaining fans than they ever have been.

I think that in the UK, they have sufficient hardcore fans who are happy to pay through the nose to support existing levels of sales in value terms (although anecdotally I hear of volume dropping, although again anecdotally I hear it is being more than compesated for by unit price rises in the UK) for the time being, notwithstanding annual price hikes > inflation. It has to be said that in general Brits take being ripped off for granted. In the RoW though, not so much.

The one bit I have no expectations on is in the area of licence fee income. I don't have a clue how things have gone in the computer game licence side of the thing, and while FFG are doing well, I'm not sure whether or not the licence fee GW get is big enough to make any significant difference or not. I suspect not, but its a pure guess.

Arkfatalis
22-07-2010, 13:37
I reckon a profit due to the Warhammer rulebook.

Chaos and Evil
22-07-2010, 13:38
The Warhammer rulebook's sales won't be in this set of financials.

marv335
22-07-2010, 13:41
It's far too early for the new warhammer rule book to be showing anything on their bottom line.

Arkfatalis
22-07-2010, 13:50
Really? How long will it be before we see the effects of 8th edition on their profits?

shelfunit.
22-07-2010, 13:52
Really? How long will it be before we see the effects of 8th edition on their profits?

One would assume in the report following this one...

Chaos and Evil
22-07-2010, 13:59
Not until their next interim finiancial report, which'll be in six months time I guess.

eriochrome
22-07-2010, 15:51
The known coming and uncertainity of 8th edition was probably a net negative on the sales in the later part of the fiscal year. People knew it was coming but did not know specifics about the rules so might hold off on new purchases to wait for the update. Also people who recruit their friends might have told them to hold off to the new edition to avoid getting an soon to be out of date rulebook. Small affects I know that will be canceled out in the next quarter due to the upgrade sales for the new edition rulebook.

shelfunit.
22-07-2010, 16:19
Without a doubt the sales generated by WH 8th will impact hugely on the next finacial results - they will make a shed load of cash from it - how long it lasts will be the key factor, as will whether it generates any new customers or if it is just the vets updating their rules sets.

Chaos and Evil
22-07-2010, 16:31
I've argued before that new editions will only generate significant income from existing customers (Who have to update to keep playing)... they won't really drive much recruitment, in the short term at least.

eriochrome
22-07-2010, 16:42
Without a doubt the sales generated by WH 8th will impact hugely on the next finacial results - they will make a shed load of cash from it - how long it lasts will be the key factor, as will whether it generates any new customers or if it is just the vets updating their rules sets.

An important thing to remember though is that these are all existing players who might have been using that money to buy minis but now have to buy a new 75 dollar rulebook. Assuming an current purchasing player spends about 35 pounds a month you have say 300K purchasing players in the world. WHFB is the second game so 100K players so 5 million pounds of sales if sell a rulebook to all those. Maybe goes up to 7.5-10 million when you throw in not active mini buyers going out to get 1 also(of course you have to ask why are they not buying the other products anymore). There normal monthly turnover is about 10 Million so maybe you see a 5 Million pound jump from the rulebooks but that is still only going to be a few percent growth at the end of the year. Ofcourse you also have to worry about losing out on new players not wanting to spend 75 dollars for a rulebook or 100 dollars for the starter box.

RevEv
23-07-2010, 07:58
No matter what the figures are there will be posters on these boards that will still see GW as doomed and ripe for closure.

Ozorik
23-07-2010, 08:00
If sales are down again (and I see no reason why they wouldn't be) then I would also hold that view (although a takeover would be more likely that a closure), and with good reason.

Even if sales volumes have actually increased I wouldn't count them out of the woods just yet.

ashc
23-07-2010, 08:28
Hmm, I am actually passed caring these days. I would imagine the trends as already stated will continue.

'The sky is falling!'

Wintertooth
23-07-2010, 08:36
what do we expect?

A ream of orange text insisting they're the wrong kind of profits.

blongbling
23-07-2010, 08:39
No matter what the figures are there will be posters on these boards that will still see GW as doomed and ripe for closure.

/me agrees with this

CaptainFaramir
23-07-2010, 10:26
08-09 = astonishing - "associated feeling of utter helplessness as some faceless bureaucrat rolls the dice of your fate". Well, Yes, Tom, the Code on Corporate Governance do require the chairman and the chief executive to be seperate people where the board is above a certain size*, and yes, the whole point of independent directors is that they are independent. Strictly and actually independent.** You know, to hold you and the rest of the board to account, however strong their "moral code." I can't believe his legal team (a) didn't identify and address these problems before (I assume) the FSA/FRC did and (b) didn't tell him to keep his smarmy mouth shut.

If this contempt demonstrates his attitude towards the regulatory authorities, it's no wonder GW has the approach it does towards it's customers.

I look forward to the 27 July with great anticipation. Should be hilarious reading.

*Main principle A.2
**Supporting Principle A.3.1

Ozorik
23-07-2010, 17:44
A ream of orange text insisting they're the wrong kind of profits.

If they are unsustainable thats just what they are ;)

Crazy Harborc
23-07-2010, 22:00
Well it's Friday. Tuesday will answer the questions on how much, and all that. I will say it again. I don't want GW to crash AND burn. I do want GW to crash enough to rethink the path of travel it's own now.;)

Nocculum
23-07-2010, 23:13
Even if sales volumes have actually increased I wouldn't count them out of the woods just yet.

Depends on what type of woods they are, you could be a Blood Forest move into profit, or a Haunted Wood into oblivion ;)

SharpSilver
23-07-2010, 23:20
I expect the exact moment the results are released for the negative posters in this forum to cry out in terror and then be suddenly silenced.

Same as always.

Kaptajn_Congoboy
23-07-2010, 23:22
I do want GW to crash enough to rethink the path of travel it's own now.;)

That would be great. It would be even greater if they started thinking about it before rather than later. Whatever one might say of GW otherwise, they are great at recruiting into the hobby, and even a semi-tanking of their profits with all the store closures and cutbacks that would involve would be a Bad Thing.

But oh I do wish they would rething their rules design policies.

Ozorik
23-07-2010, 23:24
I expect the exact moment the results are released for the negative posters in this forum to cry out in terror and then be suddenly silenced.

Same as always.

That depends on exactly what you define as 'negative' really.

Justicar Valius
24-07-2010, 00:59
Profits up, Actual sales volume down, Roaylties up, Tom Kirby annoys half of Warseer.

The standard stuff you know.

DonkeyMan
24-07-2010, 10:47
Ironic in a way that they release their new number on the same day as Starcraft 2 hits the street (a franchise that lended quite a few ideas from 40K yet has managed to become more popular for now).

I expect something similar to last year. For now things are okayish for GW as they can continue to save money by downsizing.

I'd say the really interesting results will be the ones in a few years time.

Brandir
24-07-2010, 12:18
It will be interesting if Tom comments on his own escapades in the US, although I suspect that we will have to start seeing the results of Mr Kirby taking over the US operation in the 2011 report.

Reinholt
25-07-2010, 23:21
A ream of orange text insisting they're the wrong kind of profits.

:D

My suspicion is the results will be mixed for GW, as they appear to be doing some good things and some bad things. I'm not a big fan of prognostication purely for the sake of prognostication, however, so I'd rather just wait and see what the report says and what it doesn't say. Should be interesting regardless.

Crazy Harborc
26-07-2010, 00:33
I do admit, I either forgot or have not known that Kirby had/has taken over direct control of GW, USA operations. Must not have gotten national media coverage in the USA?;)

Gee, is THAT why prices have gone up over here......To buy round trip plane tickets for Kirby?:D

Llew
26-07-2010, 06:00
No matter what the figures are there will be posters on these boards that will still see GW as doomed and ripe for closure.

The converse could be said as well. No matter what the results, people will see GW as primed to take over the gaming universe.

Profit alone is not the only measure of whether or not GW is positioned for long-term success, any more than a bad year or two spells certain doom.

I expect them to have cut just about every cost they can conceiveably cut, so they should be in a better position overall. I've heard rumors that profits will be up, and that's good for them. If profits are up while overall sales volumes are down, that points to potential longer-term problems.

It will be very interesting to see what the numbers show this year though. It always is.

ashc
26-07-2010, 08:40
Unit sales is probably way more interesting than profit right now...

blongbling
26-07-2010, 09:38
Unit sales is probably way more interesting than profit right now...

they dont announce unit sales, as in individual boxes sold year on year. Sales they will announce from which you can try and deduce the unit sales but that will make your head hurt

Osbad
26-07-2010, 10:24
they dont announce unit sales, as in individual boxes sold year on year. Sales they will announce from which you can try and deduce the unit sales but that will make your head hurt

Unit Sales is a tricky issue in any business. Take a simple example from GW's range - a box of core troops from WFB. A couple of years ago they were selling boxes of 20 models, this year they are selling boxes of 10 models each, but they reduced the price by less than 50%, so actually the "price per model" went up but the "price per box" went down. So quite probably they sold less models but more boxes. So did unit sales go down or up? The answer is: both are correct.

What matters when measuring unit sales is that the units are consistent over time, and with a product like GW's, where the product mix is so divergent, such data is hard to assess by internal financial staff, let alone us outsiders.

The best data I can think of would be a measurement over time of weight of product sold split between plastic and metal. But even then there are problems. One model may consist of a lot of raw material but be a simple build (say the Temple of Skulls terrain piece), and another may be less in weight, but be vastly more complex in design (say a tank model). And then you've got all those old kits which mixed metal and plastic pieces together. So is it at all of use to measure sales purely in terms of volume of raw material they contain, or would it be more useful to measure sales in terms of the effort that goes into making a product..? And so it goes on!

Having sat through many a meeting discussing just such conundrums for other businesses, I can say that management accounting data can get very complex, and requires a lot of specialist knowledge of the business to interpret with any real accuracy.

Of course, GW's information is (quite correctly) not even available to us in the outside world, so the best we can come up with is disclosed turnover figures discounted for general RPI, and split by geographic region. It isn't ideal, but in general it will behave as a good proxy for volume sales - responding in the same way to the same stimuli for instance.

ashc
26-07-2010, 10:39
they dont announce unit sales, as in individual boxes sold year on year. Sales they will announce from which you can try and deduce the unit sales but that will make your head hurt

...and thats probably why it would be so interesting :p

Mahwell Skel
26-07-2010, 13:56
It may be that some people* might be hoping for bad results to drive the share price down then buy it up in anticipation of the Hobbit bounce.

How far a Hobbit can bounce is the key to the next 5 years of GW I would say


* Perhaps for example someone who sold a load of shares days before the last "bad" results prior to the share price diving.

Londinium
26-07-2010, 19:45
It may be that some people* might be hoping for bad results to drive the share price down then buy it up in anticipation of the Hobbit bounce.

How far a Hobbit can bounce is the key to the next 5 years of GW I would say


* Perhaps for example someone who sold a load of shares days before the last "bad" results prior to the share price diving.

That relies on the Hobbit ever actually being made, which at the moment is totally up in the air given MGM's inability to finance anything. When a Bond movie is shelved it looks bad for the Hobbit aswell unless Jackson can use his muscle to get it moved from pre production to being green lit.

ICEMANQ
27-07-2010, 00:47
Brad Pitt was rumoured to be meeting Jackson for noms at a restaurant in Wellington just the other day, so who knows what thats about.

Brad Pitt is... The Hobbit!

Crazy Harborc
27-07-2010, 01:03
Brad Pitt?? Sure...why not? I do hope The Hobbit gets made AND helps GW's bottom line. Just a thought......IF GW had gotten the deal to make minies for the Harry Potter movies. Oh well THAT did not happen.;)

Plagueridden
27-07-2010, 10:46
Brad Pitt?? Sure...why not? I do hope The Hobbit gets made AND helps GW's bottom line. Just a thought......IF GW had gotten the deal to make minies for the Harry Potter movies. Oh well THAT did not happen.;)


thank the heavens no, dear god:wtf:

CaptainFaramir
27-07-2010, 11:23
Press Release is up... http://investor.games-workshop.com/downloads/results/results2010/2009-10_FullYearPressStatement.pdf

Mark Wells says:

“We have a simple strategy at Games Workshop. We make the best fantasy miniatures and games in the world and sell them globally at a profit. This year we have improved Games Workshop’s profitability and cash flow significantly. This has enabled us to repay our borrowings and recommend a dividend to our shareholders.
Games Workshop is now a much leaner business which is preparing itself for many years of steady profitable growth."

ashc
27-07-2010, 11:27
“We have a simple strategy at Games Workshop. We make the best fantasy miniatures and games in the world and sell them globally at a profit. This year we have improved Games Workshop’s profitability and cash flow significantly. This has enabled us to repay our borrowings and recommend a dividend to our shareholders.
Games Workshop is now a much leaner business which is preparing itself for many years of steady profitable growth."

Growth? Overall sales are down! :confused:

isaac
27-07-2010, 12:51
Growth in prices of course

ashc
27-07-2010, 12:57
Growth in prices of course

It makes more sense than anything else they say!

red.sight
27-07-2010, 12:58
They actually seem to have done quite well this year, revenue has remained the same but costs have really been slashed. 2010-2011 should be a good year for them I think.

Chaos and Evil
27-07-2010, 13:02
I would wait for the wall of orange text before making any conclusions at this point red.sight.



This thread can be closed now, there's a post-release thread open now.

Llew
27-07-2010, 15:15
Osbad is doing pretty well on the numbers in another thread already. He's got a long history of digesting this stuff down into understandble form. He and Reinholt make a pretty good team for getting a handle on this stuff.

t-tauri
27-07-2010, 16:41
Thread closed. Discussion here (http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?t=268928).