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View Full Version : lotr, DOWN THE TUBE?



Khorne warrior
21-04-2007, 20:58
I was speaking to a bunch of my friends the other day, and I was wondering, when do you think that LOTR will become like Mordheim or Mork n Gork. Sure people know about the specialist games, but few play them.

revford
21-04-2007, 21:12
Doubtful, it's the second most popular GW game behind 40K.

WHFB will be dumped before Rings. And that's not going to happen.

HeraldOfTheFree
21-04-2007, 21:14
*sigh*
KhorneWarrior, I take it by your name you're not a massive LotR player.
LotR wont go 'down the tube'. Whenever staff mention sales figures to me LotR always sells more than Fantasy.
As discussed in many threads on this topic, LotR is a very individual and unique game and will continue to attract gamers as long as it is produced. I doubt very much that any of the Core games will be relegated to the Specialist games. Especially LotR, as I expect the contract forbids this.
By the way, what is the point of threads like this? Why dont you spend your time typing something constructive like 'What will GW release next for LotR?' or 'Today there were more games of LotR than 40k in my store!' (note, that is true, 6 of us played more LotR instore than the rest of the store played Fantasy AND 40k!). Threads like this are pessimisstic and defeatist.

eengaming
21-04-2007, 23:46
I have faith that LotR will be around for some time to come. I honestly think it is the best game GW makes.

Pertinax
22-04-2007, 08:37
I have faith that LotR will be around for some time to come. I honestly think it is the best game GW makes.

Quoted for truth.

Wintermute
22-04-2007, 10:11
Doubtful, it's the second most popular GW game behind 40K.


Can you support this with some evidence please?

Wintermute

RobC
22-04-2007, 10:12
Whether or not it's the best game GW makes (a totally subjective quality), GW has spent an inordinate amount of time, money and resources on LotR and the LotR licence. More than that, they extended their deal with New Line not so long ago! If LotR really is the disaster or the 'burst bubble' that people say it is, they simply wouldn't have done that.

Whether LotR detracts from their 'core' games is another matter entirely.

sigur
22-04-2007, 11:35
I think that because of it's different nature (being a licenced game which seemingly sells quite well) compared to other GW games, LotR will keep it's "a little outsiderish core game"-state for a long time.

And it's Gorkamorka, not Mork n Gork.:(

Horus84
22-04-2007, 13:17
Well Lotr is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

From a GW stand point it is the one of the three "core" games sold in stores. It has 3 releases a year, the same amount of time and effort put into it as 40k or warhammer by the studio and recieve the same amount of exposure in the WD cycle.

In terms of sales, yes, it out sell warhammer and it also out sell 40k (across the company). The biggest selling blister for the last 2 years has been the Knights of Dol Amroth; with Lotr and 40K sharing about equals numbers in the top ten. Similarly, boxes it shares about the same amount in the top ten as 40K (only really piped by space marines - surprise and shock there I am sure :p )

The problem I can see GW having is running out of viable releases. Currently they are doing the region specific books - Arnor, Khazad-Dum.. then Gondor in Flames. It will be also interesting next summer as I should, following trends, be a Lotr based campaing (though I can't see them doing War of the Ring for a third time)

Personally, the game itself it the most stragetic GW does - though you do need an oppoent who knows how to play to a good standard. In our store we have about an even amount of gamers for all three core systems.

Kasrkin-238
22-04-2007, 13:51
The amount of releases GW will have to make for all the unreleased models in LOME will at least take 2 years. So i can't see LOTR disappearing, and neither do i want it to.

Mars
22-04-2007, 14:47
Yes, but what happens after those 2 years? Assuming they get the lisence to continue releasing, what else can they release?

That said Fantasy and 40K releases are mostly new versions of old stuff too.

Maybe LotR army books? At any rate there has been talk of rules for larger games, which means it could potentially rival Fantasy in the genre.

HeraldOfTheFree
22-04-2007, 14:57
Im not sure Legions will take 2 years, I think longer than that. Anyway, after Legions they can revisit older supplements, like the Scouring of the Shire. Or the Hobbit. Or larger games.

revford
22-04-2007, 18:16
Can you support this with some evidence please?


Nope, no evidence at all, just what I've been told by GW staff and seen in our gaming group.

Really it depends what you mean by evidence, the GW investor details don't list sales by brand, so there are no published figures I can find.

If my own observations are evidence, almost everyone in our group plays some 40K and some Historical games (including Rings variants), about half play Lord of The Rings itself and a game of WHFB is rare indeed these days.

The only GW game any of us are still buying new figures for seems to be Rings.

Gondorian
23-04-2007, 13:11
Yes, but what happens after those 2 years? Assuming they get the lisence to continue releasing, what else can they release?

That said Fantasy and 40K releases are mostly new versions of old stuff too.

Maybe LotR army books? At any rate there has been talk of rules for larger games, which means it could potentially rival Fantasy in the genre.

I was told something quite interesting by a staff member of my local GW (sadly it closed yesterday :cries: ).
Apparently there is rumour that GW may be expanding into a sort of parellel universe LOTR running what if scenarios such as Sauron winning at Minas Tirith and the forces of good really fighting for survival.
Anyway, take with a big pinch of salt as it's only a rumour but has anyone else heard anything about this?

Osbad
23-04-2007, 14:06
GW have run "what if" games (many were published as scenarios in WD, and the WotR campaign a couple of years back was arguably a lot of "what if" as it generated plot twists outside of the published narrative) for years, which are not based on the published story at all. This is the first I have heard though of a specific "what-if" story line being spun out for marketing.

I'd take it with a large pinch of Hydrogen Chloride until someone more reliable than a redshirt starts talking about it.

Rabid Bunny 666
23-04-2007, 14:12
I was told something quite interesting by a staff member of my local GW (sadly it closed yesterday :cries: )

I feel your pain dude, Sluff closed down 2 years ago, and it doubled my Transports costs :mad:

As to LOTR, i think they're gonna have to start rehashing the old stuff just so it doesn't get relegated like Mordheim, Inquisitor, etc...

Osbad
23-04-2007, 14:13
As for the idea of LotR still being around in 2 years as 4th Ed 40k and 7th Ed WFB have both singularly failed to set the wargaming world on fire. I think the greatest risk is of whether GW itself will be around in 2 years. If it is around, then I hardly think they will dump LotR. The figures I have seen quoted (mainly 2nd hand from alleged "conversations" with people "in the know" - so quote with care) for LotR's proportion of turnover is 10% of sales - i.e. around 5m pa. At it's height 3 years back, it accounted for (according to Jervis Johnson at a US GW a couple of years back) 28% of sales - i.e. around 14m, which at the time put it way ahead of WFB.

slaughteredbull
23-04-2007, 14:39
LotR actuall has 2 more releases this year (Gondor in Flames and Return of the King), so any arguement saying it isn't supported is just wrong as they are getting just as many if not more releases than the other 2 core games.

If it was ever going to go the way of the above mentioned specialist games it would of years ago.

About 6 months ago I spoke to a GW sales rep and she told me that LotR was the second best selling game with 40k being a distant first and Fantasy being and close third.

Also on a side note can the Mods please put a stop to these endless amount of threads by people that probably have never played the game past a trial game at the store, coming on here and finding a new thread like this once a week is quite annoying to be honest. I notice that this section has no guidelines for posting like the other core game threads and I believe that the above should be one of them.

Adept
23-04-2007, 14:49
I'd take it with a large pinch of Hydrogen Chloride until someone more reliable than a redshirt starts talking about it.

A pinch of hydrochloric acid?

:eek:


LotR actuall has 2 more releases this year (Gondor in Flames and Return of the King), so any arguement saying it isn't supported is just wrong as they are getting just as many if not more releases than the other 2 core games.

It's important not to confuse 'releases' with 'support'. Support is encouraging people to buy and play the game, releases are how GW keeps making money off the game. It is possible to have support without a constant stream of releases, and it is possible to have constant releases with no real support.

Osbad
23-04-2007, 15:41
A pinch of hydrochloric acid?

Of course I meant that....

That Sodium Choride stuff is useless as it makes the most ridiculous rumour taste palatable... :P

Osbad
23-04-2007, 15:47
It is possible to have support without a constant stream of releases, and it is possible to have constant releases with no real support.

QFT!

Sadly though, so many seem to only believe a game still exists and is valuable if there are new models being produced for it every two minutes!

Clearly GW make a lot of money off new releases (I expect the 80:20 rule applies here as with so much else in life - probably something like 80% of the sales of a model are in the first 20% of its life ... or something ...)so they need to do them to make megabucks to keep going. Vicious circle really.

On the other hand what is the problem playing a game with old models? Just because a model has been out for a few years, why do people lose interest? I stopped buying new GW figures in any quantity for LotR years back, but I still play and enjoy the game as much, if not more than, before.

Like everybody else I'm interested in seeing new stuff, but its not the be-all and end-all of life.

With the nerfing of WD, a slow-down in website articles and the closing of the official forum, GW have effectively tailed off "support" for all of their games, while at the same time ramping up to the max the production rate of new figures to capture sales.

As a consumate freeloader I resent this! :D

Bob5000
24-04-2007, 00:04
Down the Tube ? , certainly not in my Local GW . You are far more likely to see LOTR games being played than WHFB .

ChrisLS
24-04-2007, 03:56
OK, so I'm wondering - if articles focusing on LOTR in White Dwarf and Black Gobbo and new releases aren't support, and running Grand Tournaments for LOTR isn't support, and stocking them in their stores isn't support, and running events for LOTR in the stores isn't support, what exactly is support, in your opinions?

BTW, something my local store manager told me was that almost all of GW's sales come from old models - in general new releases account for less than 5% of sales as a general rule.

Osbad
24-04-2007, 10:14
OK, so I'm wondering - if articles focusing on LOTR in White Dwarf and Black Gobbo and new releases aren't support

Depends on the definition of the word "article". Adverts are not support, they are adverts. An article such as a battle report that doesn't explain the tactical decisions taken by the participants and is really just the game designers pimping the new studio-painted models for instance might just scrape in as "support", but is really more of an advert than support as such. "True support" would be an in-depth review of a well-painted fan-army, or some quality terrain-making, trial rules, conversion guides or painting masterclasses.
Poor quality articles just pimping new product really do not register as "support".

In this regard there seems to be unanimous agreement from players I speak to that the material in WD barely qualifies as support any more.


and running Grand Tournaments for LOTR isn't support

Of course it is. But support the GT only affects a hundred or so players. Add in Conflict for a couple of hundred more. However LotR support in Tournaments has always lagged behind WFB and 40k. Probably a chicken-and-egg situation though really as the 40k/WFB Tournament circuit has built up over many years, whereas the LotR one has only been going 4 years or so.


and stocking them in their stores isn't support,

To an extent. But really its just promotion.


and running events for LOTR in the stores isn't support,

Again, no one said it wasn't. Although personally it is a kind of support I'm not at all interested in as I never play in store. Too many kids. And because support has fallen to the extent that "Vets night" now finishes at 8pm instead of 10pm at my local store - too early for me to fit a game in after work - unequivically that form of support has reduced.


what exactly is support, in your opinions?

For me, personally, its back-up articles in WD, or on the Web that are all about enjoying playing the game and the hobby and getting the most out of the models I have already bought, rather than just pimping new ones.


BTW, something my local store manager told me was that almost all of GW's sales come from old models - in general new releases account for less than 5% of sales as a general rule.

Interesting perspective. If its true, that isn't the impression I get from looking at their advertising. Nor from speaking to independent producers who see a marked tail off in sales after the initial release. On the other hand it needen't contradict my previous assertion - that sales of a particular model line will sell most well in the weeks after their initial release and thereafter will tail off. It is entirely possible that sales will follow this profile, but that there are so many model lines available at any one time that the "tailing off" sales from the old lines outweighs the "peak" sales from the new lines. Certainly its the case that many older blisters aren't carried in stock habitually by many of the smaller stores because their level of sales no longer justify their shelf space. Only common sense I think.

schoolcormorant
24-04-2007, 11:12
i can see what you mean about new releases only accounting for 5%...sort of, i mean obviously a new release is one thing and 'old models' assumiong you don't mean classics is the entire range available in stores?

SC

jedipenguin
24-04-2007, 11:44
The fact that LOTR is outselling WHFB is (if true) slightly disturbing given its larger installed player base.

NotElite
24-04-2007, 15:22
I'd probably play the LotR system since it looks like a great small-battles type of game ... except that I kinda wish it wasn't in middle earth. I don't like seeing Aragorn die every evening or Wraiths reduced to the level of space marines.

Other than that, it looks like a fine game...

Osbad
24-04-2007, 16:39
@ NotElite. Have you tried playing Legends of the Old West? It is produced by GW Historical and is based on LotR, but set in the Wild West. If anything, IMHO it is an even better game!

ChrisLS
24-04-2007, 17:04
Osbad - Are you in the UK? I've heard a lot of people complaining the UK WD isn't as good as the US WD, and this might be part of it. I've been REALLY impressed with US WD coverage of LOTR, because a lot of the things you're asking for (pretty much everything except new rules) are in there - some of the Easterling terrain projects were AWESOME, and I think it was last month where a really cool captured Gordorian castle was used in a scenario and some construction details were given.


For me, personally, its back-up articles in WD, or on the Web that are all about enjoying playing the game and the hobby and getting the most out of the models I have already bought, rather than just pimping new ones.

OK, here is the one area I have to disagree with you on - expecting a company that makes its money and stays in business to actively encourage you to not buy new models isn't realistic. That isn't support of a system (which I see as keeping it exciting, fresh, and growing the community of players), that's digging a company's grave. Plus, just about every scenario I've seen published in WD or on the web has a points match section which isn't dependant on new models, but you can play with what you already have. Of course they're going to talk about new stuff - how else do people find out they exist?

Just think about the level of support LOTR would get if no new models were put out at all - maybe the amount of support FASA gives BattleTech now?


On the other hand it needen't contradict my previous assertion - that sales of a particular model line will sell most well in the weeks after their initial release and thereafter will tail off. It is entirely possible that sales will follow this profile, but that there are so many model lines available at any one time that the "tailing off" sales from the old lines outweighs the "peak" sales from the new lines. Certainly its the case that many older blisters aren't carried in stock habitually by many of the smaller stores because their level of sales no longer justify their shelf space. Only common sense I think.

From my understanding, boxes like Warriors of Minas Tirith and Fighting Uruk-Hai are still some of the best sellers in GW, and how long have those been out? For blisters - My understanding is that other than a few high demand blisters (Faramir's Rangers and Uruk-Hai w/Crossbows jump out) they're all pretty slow moving, even when released. I guess some collectors come in and immediately pick up something that's new, but I'm guessing that's a pretty small number.

Adept
24-04-2007, 17:23
OK, so I'm wondering - if articles focusing on LOTR in White Dwarf and Black Gobbo and new releases aren't support

This is support, but of a tentative nature. WD is really aimed at newbies, and is as much (if not more) a catalogue as a hobby mag. They could better pimp LotR by emphasising the tournament scene and providing more mini-campaigns ala the Moria campaign of a few issues ago.

To be honest, I'm pretty happy with the LotR content in WD. As a rule, I find it better than the 40K and WHFB stuff.


running Grand Tournaments for LOTR isn't support

It certainly is! IMO, one of the best ways to ensure the longevity of a system is to make sure it has a robust and large tournament scene. Encouraging people to build new armies for each tournament season (or at least every couple of years) and guaranteeing large, quality events against new opponents is a huge incentive. GW here in Australia have been doing a pretty good job of encouraging new players to go to Conflict, and from there on to the GTs, which is great. I rarely ever venture into a GW store, so I can't comment on their sales pitches, but I'd like to think they would be encouraging just as many kids to play LotR (and get to events like Conflict or the GT) as they are 40K and WHFB.


and stocking them in their stores isn't support, and running events for LOTR in the stores isn't support, what exactly is support, in your opinions?

I agree, GW do support LotR, I just think they could ramp up the effort a touch.

ChrisLS
24-04-2007, 17:49
Oddly enough, I think that the biggest problem GW has with LOTR is their own store staff. And why? Because so many of them come from the same pool of people who feel this unsubstantiated distain for the game, so they don't talk about it. Or when they do, they say "It's kind of like Fantasy." (an incredibly ignorant statement if I've ever heard one) My local store has gotten better with this in recent days, but up until a year ago or so, if you asked one of their staff to talk about the nuances of the game they'd find a toilet to clean or something.

slaughteredbull
24-04-2007, 19:00
@Osbad the way you put GW don't 'support' any of their systems then.