Eldar Runes Math-hammer

[Dweomer]

Okay, so in any number of threads I have seen people citing the effectiveness (or not) of a Farseer's Runes. Almost all of this has been citing anecdotal evidience with only token Math-hammer applied. Having some free time at work, I thought I would take it upon myself to show the Math-hammer* advantages and disadvantages of these basic items. Numbers are rounded to the nearest .1% for sake of ease.

First we'll take the easy one: Runes of Warding.
Unmodified Ld 9: 80.6% Success, 13.9% Failure, 2.8% Perils & Success, 2.8% Perils & Failure
9 vs RoWarding: 37.5% Success, 25% Failure, 37.5% Perils & Failure
Unmodified Ld10: 88.9% Success, 5.6% Failure, 2.8% Perils & Success, 2.8% Perils & Failure
10 vs RoWarding: 50.0% Success, 12.5% Failure, 37.5% Perils & Failure

So successes drop to about 1/2, failures double, and Perils tests increase by almost 7 times. Pretty simple, no? I know I won't leave home without them...


Okay, now for the one with trickier math: Runes of Witnessing
Regular Farseer: 88.9% Success, 5.6% Failure, 2.8% Perils & Success, 2.8% Perils & Failure
RoWit Farseer: 90.3% Success, 1.9% Failure, 7.8% Perils & Success, 0.04% Perils & Failure

So a Runes of Witnessing Farseer is going to be slightly more reliable in casting, but is going to also run a higher risk of Perils. However, the Ghosthelm will mitigate this a good bit. 5th edition's auto-wound and re-roll Inv save fun mean a regular Farseer will take a wound 1.4% normally or 0.9% with Fortune. A RoWit Farseer will take a wound 2.0% of the time, 1.3% with Fortune.


Now lets look at Embolden: 96.3% Success, 0.5% Failure, 3.0% Perils and Success, 0.2% Perils & Failure

So if you want reliability of casting, don't bother with the Runes of Witnessing and instead put your Farseer in with an Embolden Warlock.


Hope this helps some of you nascent FarSeers out there.
*Math-hammer does not take into account the Real World, your dice hating you, general bad luck, and other edicts of Murphy's Law